INSIDE THIS ISSUE

Economic Update .............. 1-4

News at EWS ...................... 5-6

Second Quarter

May 2015

The Eagle’s View

Economy

& Investment Markets By Paul J. Tully

F inally, after what seems to many peo-

ple as the longest period of cold weath-

er in their memories, nice weather has

arrived. With it also seems to be a pretty mild economy and investment mar-

kets, neither too hot nor too cold. That is both good and bad news.

We really need a more robust economy to truly do something meaningful about

employment; don’t be fooled by the headlines about 200,000 or more jobs per

month and a relatively low unemployment rate. Both of these statistics are mis-

leading in that they do not define the type of jobs being created nor do they

account for the number of people who are eligible to work (the labor participa-

tion rate) and who are either not seeking employment or cannot find what they

want.

Inflation and energy prices remain low, but in the case of energy, not quite as

low as a few months ago. I have heard locally from several realtors that the

market is active, though prices don’t seem to be moving up much.

Financial Planning These issues don’t change quarter to quarter, though we do see shifts in atten-

tion paid to these matters by the public. We agree with the various surveys that

continue to list the biggest concern, #1, is the fear of running out of mon-

ey. Next is healthcare costs after age 60, followed by income taxes (both state

and federal), protection from losing assets either from markets or lawsuits, and

estate planning/legacy planning for family or charity. That’s quite a list of some

significant issues which some people rank differently.

A N I N D E P E N D E N T F I R M

(Continued on page 4)

(Continued on page 2)

According to JP Morgan, since the market in the US bottomed out in March of 2009, most stock size/style cate-

gories are up between 250 and 325%. If you look at how they have done since the previous market peak in Octo-

ber 2007, it is quite a different story. All US stock categories (by size/style) are up less than 80 over that almost

8 year period, an annual return of less than 8%.

We have a bit of a “Catch 22” in the US. The past few years have seen great corporate earnings, which are now

starting to slow. If earnings keep growing at this pace, which I don’t think is likely, I believe that the Federal

Reserve will raise interest rates sooner and higher. If earnings growth slows, interest rates will remain low, but

stocks aren’t likely to respond well to that scenario either, at least not at the torrid pace of 2009-2013.

Take a look at the two charts on the next page. They (from Blackrock) show you the benefits of diversification

over time and the differences timing can make in certain returns. The periods measured are 1/1/2000 through

12/31/2009, commonly referred

to as the “lost decade” for US

stock investors and below that,

the period from 1/1/2010

through the end of 2014.

In both cases a “global allocation”

approach (which is how we man-

age client model portfolios) fin-

ished 3rd, but the categories that

placed 1stand 2nd were totally dif-

ferent for each period. In fact, the

#1 category for the past 5 years

was US stocks, but for the prior

10 years, that category was 10th

and produced a 10-year return of

minus 9%. It pays to be properly

diversified!

ECONOMY & INVESTMENT MARKETS (continued from front page)

The good news in employment continues to be that

the market for recent college grads (or any college

grads) has been getting better. As we continue to

transition to a more ser-

vice and knowledge-

based economy, a pro-

cess that may take a few

generations to play out,

the better educated and

computer literate will

have a decided ad-

vantage over those who

are not.

The highly regarded University of Michigan survey of

consumer confidence recorded the second highest

level since the beginning of 2007, which is likely a

good sign for real estate, autos and other large con-

sumer purchases.

The investment markets in the US could best be de-

scribed as “flat” with very modest overall gains and a

fair amount of volatility. Absent some good or bad

catalyst to make the markets move sharply in either

direction, I see this recent pattern as likely to contin-

ue for some months. Europe is a bit of a different

story with their markets outperforming ours so far

this year after several subpar years.

“Europe is a bit of a different story with their markets outperforming ours so far this year after several subpar years.”

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The other slide is our old JP Morgan favorite, the “Annual Returns and Intra Year Declines”

chart which we think is important to always keep in mind. There is a clear, 30-year pattern of

significant declines, even in a rising market. Just like is pays to be diversified, it pays to be

patient.

FINANCIAL PLANNING (continued from front page)

As you know, though we have frequently offered

to provide a “second opinion” to our clients’ fam-

ily, friends, and business associates, we have

never asked for introductions or referrals, nor do

we plan to in the future. It is an uncomfortable

position for all parties and in my opinion is much

more likely to harm our good relationships with

those people we have served for many years.

Having said that, we see some things today that

concern us.

One main issue is what the economic world looks like going forward.

The past 6 years have been very good ones for most investors, but that pace is very unlikely to continue,

though we hope it does. Hope is not a good strategy though when you may be dealing with someone’s 30-

year retirement. Therefore, people have “gotten away with” in some cases, not having a well-balanced in-

vestment plan. It may have worked out in the past 5 years but not as likely on the next 5.

Another concern we also see is a multitude of people branding themselves as financial planners or advi-

sors, most without credentials like a CFP® and in many cases, nothing more than an insurance license.

The Department of Labor, with strong backing from the

Securities Exchange Commission (but with a lot of re-

sistance from the investment and insurance companies) is

launching an aggressive campaign to require much more

disclosure to the public as well as requiring advisors to

adhere to a fiduciary standard in terms of putting clients

best interests first.

We strongly support changes in this area and feel that the

public has been hoodwinked into believing that people they deal with have expertise and credentials that

they do not possess. There are a large number of highly qualified CFPs® out there in the marketplace, who

serve as fiduciaries, so we are not trumpeting this widely ad-

mired credential because we are the only ones who have it. We do

think we are the only local firm where all three of the senior advi-

sors are CFPs®.

As we have offered in the past, if you have people in

your life who you care about and who you think we

may be able to help in some way, we are happy and

honored to meet with them to see if we can assist them

with their overall plan. That second opinion may be a

life changer for some people and a reinforcement that

all is already well for others.

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BIG NEWS! Steffanie and her husband Mike will be wel-

coming their second child into the world with a

due date of October 10. Steff is feeling good,

busy as ever, and expects to work up until the

baby is born. We will be finding out the sex of

the baby toward the end of this month and will

be announcing it on our Facebook page so stay

tuned and be sure to “like” us on Facebook!

Continuing Education

Chris, Jess, and Paul traveled to

Las Vegas last month (Jess with a

torn ACL, since successfully operated

on) for the Raymond James National

Conference on Professional Develop-

ment. There were 4,000 people there,

the meetings ran from 8pm until 5pm

Monday through Thursday, and we

heard from a number of experts on

the economy, investment markets

and issues impacting our business.

The investment people felt we were

still in a longer term rising invest-

ment markets for stocks and the in-

dustry practitioners spoke about the increasing regulatory and competitive pressures we face in our

business, for which we believe we are already well prepared. Paul also has conferences on investment

management in Jersey City and Chicago this summer and Chris has one in Memphis.

In the Community

Dana continues to be heavily involved with the Gloucester County

Animal Shelter and in recent months has become involved with their

auxiliary organization — A Voice for Paws — which raises awareness

on the importance of adopting, fos-

tering and volunteering with ani-

mals throughout Gloucester County

and also provides assistance with

Trap-Neuter-Release, fostering and

food for strays, dog training, and pet

owners with economic hardships.

In February, Kathy and her daugh-

ter Nicole participated in 30-Hour Famine’s Stop Hunger Now where

she and her youth group packed 10,000 meals for starving children in

Africa all while going 30 hours with no food for themselves!

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NEWS AT EWS

Steffanie and her son Landon volunteered with her

United Way group to help a local program called

“Mothers Matter” in April where they packed hygiene/

cosmetic supplies for hospitals and low-income daycare

children to give to their mothers for Mother’s Day.

Office Space

We are adding to our office space in the building and

likely adding at least one new associate as well. We have

been very fortunate to have experienced very good

growth in recent years and with that comes a higher commitment to client service and services. We will remain in

our location but adding the office suite across the hall.

Awards & Recognition

We have once again been recognized by Philadelphia Magazine and New Jersey

Monthly for our work. Also, Paul was chosen by London based Financial Times as

one of the 400 leading advisors in the US, only 20 of whom are from NJ. This award

in particular is a tribute to the commitment and hard work of our team and our cli-

ents since criteria included measures that are impacted by the services we offer, our

credentials, our compliance history, and growth rate. Criteria for selection of the

award included the following: assets under management, asset growth rate, years of

experience, compliance record, certifications that demonstrate technical and indus-

try knowledge, and online accessibility (illustrates commitment to providing inves-

tors with easy access and transparent contact information).

Night Out

The EWS team enjoyed a night out bowling last quarter for our quarterly team building event. Steff took 1st place

(must be that softball arm!) while Chris bowled the most spares. All in all… not too shabby!

Chris Paul

Peach Tree Professional Center

877 Kings Highway

Suite 300

West Deptford, NJ 028096

Phone: (856) 845-4005

Fax: (856) 845-4121

paul.tully@eaglewealthstrategies.com

www.eaglewealthstrategies.com

Securities offered through Raymond

James Financial Services, Inc.

Member FINRA/SIPC

A N I N D E P E N D E N T F I R M

Eagle Wealth Strategies is an independent firm in West Deptford, New Jersey.

Our team of financial advisors provides comprehensive financial and retirement

planning services to successful individuals and families, retirees and those

nearing retirement, single, widowed and divorced women, and attorneys, ac-

countants and physicians.

Each of our financial advisors – Paul Tully, Steffanie Lerch and Chris Tully–

holds the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification. This distinguished

industry credential is awarded to a select number of financial professionals who

satisfy the CFP® Board of Standard’s rigorous educational and examination

requirements, and who agree to adhere to its high level of ethical and profes-

sional standards.

This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Paul

Tully and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not

guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include trans-

action costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee

future results.

_______________ ________________ __________________

Paul J. Tully Steffanie A. Lerch Christopher T. Tully CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™

____________________ __________________ ___________________

Jessica L. Hauser Dana F. Rohach Kathy M. Repici CHIEF OPERATIONS OFFICER CLIENT COMMUNICATIONS & CLIENT SERVICE ASSOCIATE

MARKETING ASSOCIATE