EURUSD and Fixed Income 12072011

8/6/2019 EURUSD and Fixed Income 12072011

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Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Fixed Income higher. Sovereign spreads are widening. Next resistance points.Chart Watch


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2Karen Jones | Technical Analysis Research | Tuesday, 12 July 2011

Technical Trade Ideas

-0.85%Short 126.495, stopped out124.60127.57126.35, 126.62Sell bund30.06.2011

+1.7%Long 1.1711, current1.19131.2150Raise profit stopto 1.1765

Buy at market(1.1711). Add1.1650

Buy NOK/SEK05.07.2011

+1.5%Short 1.6082, current1.58401.5550Lower stop1.6020

Sell 1.6025,1.6140Sell GBP/USD27.06.2011

Take ProfitStop Outcome P&LTrade IdeaInstrumentDate


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EUR/USD - the major supports

Weekly chart

Uptrend and55 week maat 1.3685/48

Daily Chart

Downside measuredtarget from thetriangle is 1.3183

The major supports are 1.3770/68 = 38.2% retracementof the move from 2010-2011

Then 1.3685/48 = uptrend and 55 week ma

Then 1.3408 = 50% of same move


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Bund - how far can this rally go?

Having cleared the 129.10 61.8% retracement of the movedown from August 2010 the question is where to next?

We have minor resistance at 129.79, 130.38, a Fibonacciextension then 130.78, the Equalised active August 2010high, and then 130.95 the November 2010 high.

However recent price action has been so dynamic that, wefeel that these will be cleared for ongoing strength to131.60, the 78.6% retracement of the move down from theAugust 2010 high (see weekly chart on the next slide). Thetop of the channel extension also comes in here today at131.73.

While above 129.10/128.80 the market is immediately bid.Intraday dips lower are expected to remain contained by128.00/127.57 (previous high).

The 131.60/73resistance is regarded as the last defencefor 132.36 then the 134.77 August peak.

Using thechannel as ameasurementhigher thisoffers resistanceat 131.73 today

Daily Continuation


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Bund WeeklyTargets 131.60/78.6% retracement

131.60 Fiboresistance

Weekly continuation


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EU 10Y asset swap - daily chartThrough top of 2 year channel this has introduced scope to 55.00/40.

Next resistance levels at the

psychological 50 and the55.40 the 61.8% retracementof the move down from the2008 peak. This is also aFibonacci extension and thenext target zone.


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Spain VS Germany 10Y - daily

The spike up to 336 hastemporarily exhaustive. Butwhile pull back holdsabove 284-274 will have toassume immediate upsidepressure remains. Above335 we have nothing ofnote until 350, 400 then417. This is the 78.6%retracement of the movedown from 1995.


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Ireland VS Spain 10Y

Next resistance is 738/740 (Fibonacciextension)


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Ireland VS Germany 10Y

Next resistance is 1050,1074/75. This is amultitude of Fibonacciextensions. Nothing abovehere until 1200/05.


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Italy VS Spain 10Y has based.

Through 55 day ma also should narrow back to -17/-18, the 1998 low


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US 10Y T-NotesRecent surge higher shows that the bull market is still very much alive, targets the 127-025 zone

US 10Y T-Notes Equalised Active Daily Continuation ChartSeptember US 10Y T-Notes have pushed right through the123-175/124-155 resistance area, made up of the Octoberand November 2010 peaks, and are about to test this

years high at 124-315.This is expected to be overshot with the 2008-2011resistance line at 127-025 then becoming the next upsidetarget, together with the 128-01 2010 peak.

Should this significant resistance area be breached, anadvance to the 2008 peak at 130-195 may then also beunderway.

Minor support is now seen around the 124-00 level andaround the 55 day moving average at 122-04.

Unless a reversal signal lower is being made, we willmaintain our now bullish outlook whilst trading above the

55 day moving average.

Breaks above major resistance


13/19


US 10Y T-NotesYet another up leg is in the making, expect to see new highs for 2011

Targets the resistance line at 127-025

US 10Y T-Notes Weekly Continuation Chart


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Technical Signals

Market is trendingbut not yetregistering abullish or bearishsignal

Is the market trending?

Is ADX>20

YES

NO

Market is nottrending

If MACD>zero

And +DI>-DI

Then Bullishtrending signal

If MACD< zero

And +DI


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Other technical analysis reports we publish are:

Monday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), FX Emerging Markets Technicals, Strategic Technical Themes;

Tuesday: Daily Market Technicals (FX); Bullion Weekly Technicals;

Wednesday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), Commodity Weekly & Commodity Currencies Weekly Technicals;

Thursday: Daily Market Technicals (FX);

Friday: Daily Market Technicals (FX), Fixed Income Weekly Technicals.


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Karen JonesHead of FICC Technical Analysis

Tel. +44 207 475 1425Mail [email protected]

ZentraleKaiserplatzFrankfurt am Mainwww.commerzbank.de

Postfachanschrift60261 Frankfurt am MainTel. +49 (0)69 / 136-20Mail [email protected]

Axel RudolphSenior Technical Analyst

Tel. +44 207 475 5721Mail [email protected]

EURUSD and Fixed Income 12072011

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