Europe’s Social Reality

Roger Liddle & Frédéric Lerais, Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA)Roger Liddle & Frédéric Lerais, Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA) Slide Slide 11

Europe’s Social Reality

Frédéric Lerais

Bureau of European Policy Advisers

Brussels, 8 May 2007


1. Discussion paper on ‘Europe’s Social Reality’ to stimulate debate

• Citizen’s agenda (10th May Communication)

• Not a Commission policy statement or official consultation paper• Consultation runs for the rest of the year 2007

• No hidden agenda on the part of the Commission• No presumption of bigger role for Brussels

2. Analyse social well-being across EU27• Beyond Growth and Jobs : the social condition of Europeans• Various studies on well-being

• OECD, WB…;• Analysis of the factors behind

• Jobs, family, health, etc.• Do MS, for all their diversity, face common challenges?

What does the report do?


Happiness indicators

Apparent happiness throughout Europe


Anticipated life for future generations

Contrasted anticipated futures for generations to come


Social changes are driven by :

1. Globalisation but also by numerous internal factors

2. Rapid transformation to a knowledge and service economy;

3. Development of Welfare State: new opportunities & new dependencies;

4. Demographics, Gender equality, and changing family;

5. Mass affluence and the individualization of values.

1. Trends1. Trends 1.1 5 Important trends1.1 5 Important trends


1. Trends1. TrendsGlobalisation is driving social change in EuropeGlobalisation is driving social change in Europe

• Some loss of low skilled jobs subject to new international competition;

• Some ‘delocalization’ – but not as much as people think and often;

• Some outsourcing;

• Increased migratory pressures;

• Intense pressure on energy and natural resources: need to tackle climate change.


In EU15; 2/3 of all jobs in services (EU15); 40% work in 'knowledge sectors' Between 2000 and 2004: 1.7m fewer industrial jobs; 1.1m fewer agricultural

jobs; 8m more service jobs.

50% of jobs demand high cognitive and/or personal skills; • Two thirds of new jobs are skilled;• Bleak prospects for unskilled: unemployment rate three times higher than

for graduates.

• 1 in 3 of the EU workforce is unskilled;• 1 in 6 still leaving school without skills;• Educational performance, particularly attainment of intermediate skills,

in decline in some MS;• Problems for low skilled losing jobs in mid-life.

2.Towards a knowledge and service economyFast shifts in occupational structure


Outcomes

• Better health services and pensions plus the abolition of absolute poverty increasing life expectancy.

• Dramatic European achievement in terms of life expectancy 43.5 (1900); 75.5 (2000), 82 (2050)

But, rise in dependency:

• among 55-64 year olds over 40% of men and 60% of women have dropped out of the labour market;

Persistence of relative poverty:• 1 in 6 over 65s – 12 million of 72 million pensioners –at risk of poverty.• 1 in 5 children– 18 million of the EU’s 94 million children• Single parent families: 4.4% of all EU households;• Jobless households, 60% at risk of poverty;• and rising in several MS

3. Welfare stateImpacts


53%

51%

42%

Is too expensive for the(NATIONALITY) society

Provides wide enoughcoverage

Could serve as a modelfor other countries

Pessimism about of welfare systems

Expensive but worth it

'For each of the following please tell me whether you think it applies to the (NATIONALITY) social welfare system? Our social welfare system… '

Answers 'It applies to…' – EU 25


• A fertility well below sustainable levels (2,69 (60’s) to 1,5)• Biggest recent falls in fertility in southern Europe and new Member States• Fertility rates higher in MS with better childcare, easier maternity and

paternity leave and greater availability of part time work• Women with jobs now more likely to have children• Supporting the 'dual earner' couple now the prime task of family policy

Some consequences• Age related expenditures rise by 2.5% of GDP by 2030 and 4.3% by 2050;• 28% of over 70s currently live alone; 40% of over 80s;• Up to two thirds of over 75 dependent on informal care;• Extended families weakening care for elderly at same time as to stay at

work longer; • Yet (mainly) women carers under pressure.

4. Demographic changes4.1 Declining fertility and ageing


4. Demographic changes 4.2 Migration can be source of new labour supply

Profound impact• Birmingham or Marseilles made up of more than 1/3 of minorities;• 'Non-native Dutch population' forecast to be 14% of total population by 2020

– but 50% population of Amsterdam and Rotterdam;• This diversity enriches Europe: migrant contribution to diet, sport, social

welfare and public services;

Big problems of social integration remain. • Discrimination, especially in labour market • Poor educational attainment • Problems of perception

– 60% of Europeans believe there are limits to how many people of minorities, other religions or cultures a society can accept ( 25% reject multiculturalism)

• Strong economy and Social Model is no guarantee of integration (Denmark);• Debate and dialogue on common obligations of citizenship.


54%

48%

46%

42%

32%

People from other ethnic groups are enriching thecultural life of (OUR COUNTRY)

We need immigrants to work in certain sectors ofour economy

The presence of people from other ethnic groupsincreases unemployment in (OUR COUNTRY)

The presence of people from other ethnic groups isa cause of insecurity

The arrival of immigrants in Europe can efficientlysolve the problem of Europe’s ageing population

The question of immigration

'For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you tend to agree or tend to disagree.'

Answers 'Tend to agree' – EU 25


5. Mass affluence and individualization

Material needs increasingly satisfied • New consumer demands for leisure, fitness, tourism, style;• New occupations driving Europe's transformation to a knowledge

and service economy;• Information empowerment: demand for more personalized and

consumer accountable public as well as private services; • Growth of self-health;• Increasing consciousness of risk

Changes in value• Increasing secularization/ decline of religious belief;• Decline in ‘social capital’/ civic engagement/ trust in politics; • Greater personal freedom; tolerance of diverse sexuality and

lifestyles.• Changes in family composition


To sum up

All in All, Europeans should be optimistic about the EU's ability to prosper in a Global Age

Critical common challenges : • Education and skills in the knowledge economy : in some

Member States educational performance in decline;• Generational inequity due to demographic change.• Europe needs more migrants : but considerable problems of

social integration in many Member States;• Risks of social polarization : increasing poverty and

inequality; declining social mobility; high level of child poverty.


Web-site

• For more information, • to read the full BEPA report • to follow the public consultation

visit

http://ec.europa.eu/citizens_agenda/social_reality_stocktaking/index_en.htm

Europe’s Social Reality

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