European natural gas market and GDF SUEZ LNG activities Session 4 “New procurement behaviors by...
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European natural gas market and GDF SUEZ LNG activities Session 4 “New procurement behaviors by consumers” 2nd LNG Producer - Consumer Conference Tokyo, JAPAN 10 September 2013 Philip Olivier President of GDF SUEZ LNG
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Transcript of European natural gas market and GDF SUEZ LNG activities Session 4 “New procurement behaviors by...
European natural gas market andGDF SUEZ LNG activitiesSession 4 “New procurement behaviors by consumers”
2nd LNG Producer -Consumer Conference
Tokyo, JAPAN
10 September 2013
Philip Olivier
President of GDF SUEZ LNG
European Natural Gas Supply
and Demand Balance Outlook
2
2nd LNG Producer - Consumer Conference - Tokyo, JAPAN - 10 September 2013
Europe Long Term Natural Gas Supply
3
CERA, Global Redesign, 2012, GDF SUEZ simulations *Historical data include spot LNG
Gas demand: Slow European gas demand growth
Gas supply: Continuous domestic production decline, increasing pipeline imports…
LNG imports: the return of flexible LNG?
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Additional imports need
Available LNG - existing projects (GDF SUEZ simulations)
LNG fixed contracted (GDF SUEZ simulations)
Pipeline imports (Cera scenario)
Domestic production (Cera scenario)
Local Demand (Cera scenario)
bcm Europe - Natural Gas Balance
2nd LNG Producer - Consumer Conference - Tokyo, JAPAN - 10 September 2013
Lessons Learnt from European Gas Markets
NG price competitiveness: Numerous LT contracts prices reviews
Failed carbon market, Increasing coal and renewables in power production
Visibility on long term investment: European regulatory environment.
4
Load factor of natural gas and coal plants for power production in Europe
Source: CERA and DOE EIA, 2013Source: CERA August 2013
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Benchmark Prices ($/MMBtu (2011))
HH
NBP
European Term
Asian Term
$/M
MB
tu
Benchmark prices
Strategy of GDF SUEZ in LNG
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2nd LNG Producer - Consumer Conference - Tokyo, JAPAN - 10 September 2013
A large and diversified 16 mmtpa LNG supply portfolio: 3rd largest in the world
• In 2012, LNG supply accounted for 30% GDF SUEZ long-term gas supply portfolio
Large and diversified sales portfolio
• Internal and external sales to optimize portfolio management
• Medium term and short term sales to third parties
Diversified LNG sales portfolio
2010 2011 2012 20130%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
LT LNG portfolio management External LNG sales
Breakdown of LNG sales by type of contracts
GDF SUEZ’s response to challenging gas marketsA diversified supply and sales portfolio
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LNG supply
686 TWh
11% Algeria
26% Norway
Other * 9%
10%Unspecified
origin
17%Russia
5% Trinidad and Tobago
4% EgyptNetherlands 10%
Yemen 4%
Breakdownn of gas supply by source countries
(including natural gas and LNG)
Diversified Gas Supply Portfolio
14% 17% 24% 24%
2nd LNG Producer - Consumer Conference - Tokyo, JAPAN - 10 September 2013
GDF SUEZ Ambitions in LNG
mtpa
Ambitious portfolio development
9.514
Up to 160.5
2
4
10
16
20 mtpa External markets
Internal markets
20-30%
70-80%
2000 2010 2020
x2
Develop our own liquefaction / production projects to increase our presence
along the LNG value chain
Increase portfolio to 20 mtpa by 2020 with new supply sources and equity LNG
x2 external LNG sales (from 2 to 4 mtpa) mainly in emerging markets by 2020
Develop / manage regas. assets in new markets (Asia, Latin America)
Develop the retail LNG market
7
2nd LNG Producer - Consumer Conference - Tokyo, JAPAN - 10 September 2013
Diversification of GDF SUEZ LNG supply portfolio
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Integrated ProjectsBONAPARTE LNG
AggregatorCAMEROON LNG
• Upstream and floating liquefaction offshore Australia
• Commercialization of the LNGin Asia Pacific markets
• FID in 2015, first gas in 2019
• Aggregation of the feedgas • Onshore liquefaction plant
development• Commercialization of the LNG and
offtake LNG volumes• Opportunity for geographical
optimization• FID in 2016, first gas in 2020
LNG Liquefier/TollingUS EXPORTS - Cameron LNG
• Access to liquefaction capacity
• Access to flexible LNG
• Opportunity to sell to Asia Pacific with a variety of indexation exposure (HH, Brent)
• FID in 2014, early start up of supply 2017
GDF SUEZ liquefaction projects
GDF SUEZ aims to collaborate with Asian counterparts to develop its projects
Opportunities for Japanese buyers to access oil / hub indexed volumes
2nd LNG Producer - Consumer Conference - Tokyo, JAPAN - 10 September 2013 9
THANK YOU !
THANK YOU!
