European Livestock Policy Evaluation Network (ELPEN)

Erling AndersenDanish Centre for Forest, Landscape and Planning

Frans Godeschalk

The Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI)

Brussels 20.11.2002

ELPENOverall objective

To build a decision support system for spatially explicit assessments of environmental, economic and social impacts of European livestock policy.

The ELPEN approach

Livestock systems

Agricultural statistical data

Farm level information

Contextual information

Economic modelling

Step 1: Agricultural sectors

All farms in the EU50% or more of value

of production frompigs

50% or more ofvalue of production

from poultry

Rest of farms(< 50% OU_GL and <50% OU_Pigs and <50% OU_Poultry)

50% or more ofvalue of

production fromGL

> 0 LU GL 0 LU GL > 0 LUGL

0 LUGL

> 0 LU GL 0 LU GL

Grazinglivestock

GL / Pigs Pigs GL /Poultry

Poultry GL/Arable

and other

Arableand

other84,1% GL LU 1,7% 0% 0,5% 0% 13,7% 0%

Step 2: Grazing livestock sectors

Grazing livestock farms>= 75% Cattle in

LU_GL>= 25% and < 75%Cattle in LU_GL

< 25% Cattle inLU_GL

and >= 50% Sheepin LU Sheep&Goats

< 25% Cattle inLU_GL

and < 50% Sheepin LU Sheep&Goats

CattleMixed grazing

livestockSheep Goats

78% GL LU 11% 10% 1%

Grazing livestock farms>= 75% Milk in OU_GL >= 33% and < 75% Milk in

OU_GL< 33% Milk in OU_GL

Dairy Mixed production Meat42% GL LU 25% 33%

Step 3: Grazing livestock systemsA. Land use

Grazing livestock farms< 150 grazing days outside UAA / LU_GL

< 5 LU grazing livestock per ha UAA>= 55% grass in UAA < 55% grass

in UAA

>= 150grazing

daysoutsideUAA /LU_GL

>= 5 LUgrazing

livestock perha UAA < 40% temporary grass

in total grass>= 40% temporary grass

in total grass Off-farmgrazingsystems

Off-farmproduced

foddersystems

Permanent grasssystems

Grasslandsystems

Arablesystems

2% 3% 51% 13% 31%

Step 3: Grazing livestock systemsB. Intensity

Grazing livestock farmsInput costs

< 150 ECU/ha UAAInput costs

>= 150 - < 600 ECU/ha UAAInput costs

>= 600 ECU/ha UAALow input systems Medium input systems High input systems

24% GL LU 54% 22%

Step 3: Grazing livestock systemsC. Size

Grazing livestock farms< 20 LU_GL >= 20 – < 100 LU_GL >= 100 LU_GL

Small-scale systems Medium-scale systems Large-scale systems6% GL LU 55% 39%

Location of systems

Low input grassland systems

High input grassland systems

Example of application: Two scenarios for area payments

All direct support substituted by:

1. UAA premium- a unionwide homogeneous area payment on the total farmed area

2. Grassland premium- a unionwide homogeneous area payment on permanent and rough grassland

Example of application: Area payments

Share of support:Share of

farmsToday UAA

premiumGrassland

premium

Permanentgrassland

48 45 56 84

Arable 34 38 32 11

Grassland 12 14 11 4

Off-farmgrazing

3 1 1 1

Off-farm pro-duced fodder

3 1 0 0

Source: FADN-CCE-DG Agriculture/A-3; adaptation LEI.

Example of application: Area payments Permanent grassland systems

58 ha58 GLU84% Permanent and rough grassFFI: 19100 Ecu33% older than 6578% of UAA in LFA

Source: FADN-CCE-DG Agriculture/A-3; adaptation LEI.

Example of application: Area payments Permanent grassland systems

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Fertiliser

Crop protection

Stocking density

Grassland

Permanent grass

Grassland pressure

Source: FADN-CCE-DG Agriculture/A-3; adaptation LEI.

Example of application: Area payments Intensity

Share offarms

Share ofsupport

today

UAApremium

Grasslandpremium

High input 18 11 9 7

Medium input 51 56 48 41

Low input 31 33 43 52

Source: FADN-CCE-DG Agriculture/A-3; adaptation LEI.

Example of application: Area payments Size

Share offarms

Share ofsupport

today

UAApremium

Grasslandpremium

Large-scale 13 33 37 40

Medium-scale 63 58 55 53

Small-scale 25 9 7 7

Source: FADN-CCE-DG Agriculture/A-3; adaptation LEI.

Variables used in the typologyNo. Grazing days outside UAAUtilised Agricultural Area (UAA) (ha)Area Temporary grass (ha)Area Permanent pasture + Rough grazing (ha)Cattle (total) (LU)Sheep and goats (LU)Sheep (LU)Total output (ECU)Output Cows' milk and milk prod. (ECU)Output Beef and veal (ECU)Output Pigmeat (ECU)Output Sheep and goats (ECU)Output Poultrymeat (ECU)Output Eggs (ECU)Output Ewes' and goats' milk (ECU)Costs Fertilisers (ECU)Costs Crop protection (ECU)Costs Purchased concentrated feedingstuffs for graz. livestock

Grazing days outside UAA

Source: FADN-CCE-DG Agriculture/A-3; adaptation LEI.

Grassland data

FSS FADNBelgium 18 8Denmark 43 50Germany 4 1Greece 13 35Spain 2 11France 24 33Ireland 17 7Italy 22 3Luxembourg 12 0Netherlands 7 0Austria 2 0Portugal 4 14Finland 97 100Sweden 73 48United Kingdom 13 13EU 15 16 17

Percentage temporary grass of total grassland

Cost of inputs

Supp. Feed dairy Ammonium nitrateBelgium 106 101Denmark 117Germany 67 96Greece 118 61Spain 104 103France 92 115Ireland 93 101Italy 112 123Luxembourg 108 104Netherlands 71 99Austria 105Portugal 127Finland 121Sweden 104 152United Kingdom 81

Source: DGagri web

Price index 1998 100 = average for all the mentioned member states

Conclusions 1

•Based on the expert knowledge and FADN data we have build a typology of grazing livestock systems

•The livestock systems have different environmental profiles enabling policy assessment

•More detailed information on farming practices and location is needed - reference farms and GIS-analysis

Conclusions 2

•We need to check the quality of the variables used to build the typology

•This meeting

•Questionnarie