European Environment Agency Budapest University of Technology and Economics László Somlyódy...

European Environment Agency

Budapest University of Technology and

Economics

László SomlyódyChair, Scientific

Committee of EEA

CONTEXT SETTING AND EXPECTED OUTCOMES

Department of Sanitary and Environmental Engineering, www.vkkt.bme.hu

Research Foresight for Environment and Sustainability

EEA Workshop, Copenhagen, 14-15 May 2007


Presence Future

Scenarios

Strategy, information and research

GoalsIndicators


Comprehensive global or European- scale environmental scenarios

- Full coverage?

- Feed-backs?

- Surprise free scenarios?

- Emerging issues?

EEA (2005)

Scenarios Time horizon

EEA 2010-

SEI 2050

IPCC 2100

MEA 2050

OECD 2020

UNEP 2030s

WBCSD 2050

WWW 2025

- Many different scenarios & time horizons (2010-2100)


Presence FutureScience Strategy

Methods

Information

GoalsIndicators

Scenarios



The DPSIR assessment framework



Methods

Information

Forsight

Research + Policy

GoalsIndicators

Scenarios



Knowledge and ignorance

Knowing

Not-knowing

01

IgnoranceRisk UncertaintyRecognized ignorance

P. Harremoes (2001)P. Harremoes (2001)



Methods

Information

Forsight

Uncertainties Surprises

Research + Policy

GoalsIndicators

Scenarios

EEA



Europe and external impacts


Key interactions between different environmental concerns („environmental future”)

- Non-point sources as an example? EEA (2005)

Phosphorus emission (kg P/ha/y)

Estimation of non-point source TP emissions in Hungary: sub-basin level

Water bodies

Lakes

Sub-basins

Estimation of non-point source TP emissions

(1100 sub-basins)

© daNUbs

Non-point source TP emissions: Danube basin level

TP emissions(g/ha/y)



Methods

Information

Forsight

Uncertainties Surprises

Research + Policy

GoalsIndicators

Scenarios

EEA


D„Socio-economic future”

THIS SEMINAR

Forsight

Research + Policy


Social

Technology

Environment

Economy

Policy

STEEP drivers


Links between key driving forces and environmental issues

- Complexity?

- Non-linearities?

- Models?

- Research?

EEA (2005)


Research agenda Emerging issues

Integrated assessments

EEA Multi-annual work programme

STEEP

STEEP framework for EEA


Overarching workshop objectives:checklist

• What are the mega trends of STEEP drivers

(at least 20 years)?• What are the uncertainties? • How to “predict surprises”?• Which research and research foresight do we

need to develop policy foresight?


Drivers Key words Questions1. Social Population growth

PovertyMigrationLand useUrbanisationValues/perceptionBehaviour

Will urban sprawl continue? How will time be used by an ageing population? How to predict public environmental concern?

Drivers and questions


2. Technology EnergyTransportAgricultureICTBiotechNanotechMaterial techPollution abatement Monitoring

Which are the emerging or re-emerging techs?

How to adopt the new technologies?

Will the current trend of converging technologies continue?

Drivers and questions (cont.)


3. Environment Eco-services (food, water etc.) Material flows Environmental statePollution levels Climate change impactsEcosystems impactsHealth impacts Sector impacts

How to introduce ecosystems resilience and eco-services in assessment and reporting?

Which are the environmentally important cross-thematic drivers and mega-trends?

Which are the new products and pollutants?



4. Economy Global tradeMonetary flowEconomic instruments

• Are there new economic instruments under development? What are the predictions of global trade?


5. Policy Governance Globalisation Precaution

• Is there a current trend from globalization to “glocalization”? How will the precautionary principle be applied in the future? Governance barriers?


Next steps

• Summary of the workshop • Survey of existing foresight activities• Populating the Research Foresight portal

and the difficult step

• Try to make a research foresight based on all these

• Advise on EU research strategy and utilization of results

• Influence the EU research agenda accordingly• „Bridging the Gap” conference in 2008


Environmental strategies

PresentDrivers

State

Time2000

Goal


Environmental strategies

PresentDrivers

State

Time2000

Monitoring

Adjustments

Goals


Knowledge

Ignorance

Borderline between knowledge and ignorance

Research and development

Knowledge and ignorance

P. Harremoes (2001)P. Harremoes (2001)


Future role of the SC: general

• To support scientifically EEA attempting to voice „independent” opinions and playing a complementary

role to DGEnv; • To inspire EEA with independent visions of European

environmental problems;• Quality control of procedures and publications to ensure

that indicators and assessments are based on state-of-the-art science („watchdog” function).


Future role of the SC: opinions

• Scientific matters concerning the Agency’s activities;• Future environment, research outlook and emerging

issues to direct EEA’s work programme;• The role of EEA with regard to scientific aspects of

policy issues;• Work programmes, recruitments etc.;• Relation of EEA and other institutions.


Future role of the SC: scientific advises

• Topics and impact assessments of reports;• EU research strategy keeping in mind EEA’s needs,

utilization of results and outcomes;• Initiation of assessments;• SC members as EEA ambassadors;

European Environment Agency Budapest University of Technology and Economics László Somlyódy...

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