EuropEan CrEdit risk outlookresults of the sixth European Credit risk Managers survey

november 2012

rEport

2

EuropEan CrEdit risk outlook

Contents

Introduction....................................................................................................................3

Summary.......................................................................................................................4

Key.Findings.and.Analysis...............................................................................................5

. Credit.Delinquencies...............................................................................................5

.. .....DACH:.Delinquencies........................................................................................6

. .....Iberian.Peninsula:.Delinquencies.........................................................................7

. .....UK/Ireland:.Delinquencies.................................................................................8

. Credit.Supply.and.Demand.....................................................................................9

. .....DACH:.Credit.Supply.and.Demand...................................................................10

. .....Iberian.Peninsula:.Credit.Supply.and.Demand....................................................11

. .....UK/Ireland:.Credit.Supply.and.Demand............................................................12

. Interest.Rates.......................................................................................................13

. Priorities.for.2013................................................................................................14

. .....DACH:.Priorities.for.2013................................................................................15

. .....Iberian.Peninsula:.Priorities.for.2013.................................................................16

. .....UK/Ireland:.Priorities.for.2013.........................................................................17

Respondents’.Profile......................................................................................................18.

Project.Sponsors...........................................................................................................21

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There.was.very.little.new,.and.even.less.encouraging,.in.the.European.economic.and.political.realms.as.the.Eurozone.crisis.dragged.on.through.the.summer.of.2012.and.into.the.fall..The.sixth.survey.of.European.credit.risk.managers.refl.ects.this.dismal.picture,.as.many.of.the.forecasts.for.credit.delinquencies,.demand.and.supply.changed.little.from.the.last.survey,.conducted.in.the.summer..

For.this.survey,.conducted.in.September.and.October.2012,.respondents.also.gave.a.glimpse.of.their.priorities.for.2013..There.were.wide.regional.differences.for.these.questions,.as.indeed.for.all.parts.of.the.survey,.but.we.can.draw.one.clear.message.from.respondents:.A.bank’s.own.customers.must.provide.the.growth,.and.therefore.the.banks.must.do.a.better.job.of.building.customer.loyalty,.understanding.customers’.needs.and.risk.and.improving.communications..To.that.end,.both.Big.Data.and.mobile.communications.will.be.of.great.interest.in.the.months.to.come.

Findings.from.this.survey.will.in.turn.help.to.inform.the.Risk.Managers.Advisory.Council,.a.group.of.European.risk.professionals.formed.by.Efma.and.sponsored.by.FICO,.and.to.enliven.discussion.at.the.RMAC.meetings..

We.are.grateful.to.the.executives.from.across.Europe.who.put.forward.their.views.in.this.survey..

Frans Labuschagne Managing.Director,.EMEAFICO.

Introduction

Patrick DesmarèsSecretary.General.Efma

21

FICO.(NYSE:FICO),.formerly.known.as.Fair.Isaac,.delivers.superior.predictive.analytics.that.drive.better.decisions..As.a.pioneer.in.applying.mathematics.to.solve.business.problems,.FICO.gives.businesses.the.power.to.make.more.effective.decisions.based.on.sharper.forecasts.of.consumer.behavior..FICO’s.revolutionary.solutions.include.the.leading.credit.scores.as.well.as.leading.global.solutions.for.credit.account.management.and.fraud.management..Most.of.the.world’s.top.banks,.as.well.as.leading.insurers,.retailers,.healthcare.and.pharma.companies.and.government.agencies,.rely.on.the.analytic.advantage.of.FICO.solutions.to.accelerate.growth,.control.risk,.reduce.costs.and.meet.regulatory.and.competitive.demands..

FICO5th.Floor,.Cottons.Centre,.Hays.LaneLondon.SE1.2QPUnited.KingdomTel:.+44.(0)207.940.8718www.fico.com.

As.a.global.not-for-profit.organisation,.Efma.brings.together.more.than.3,300.retail.financial.services.companies.from.over.130.countries..With.a.membership.base.consisting.of.almost.a.third.of.all.large.retail.banks.worldwide,.Efma.has.proven.to.be.a.valuable.resource.for.the.global.industry,.offering.members.exclusive.access.to.a.multitude.of.resources,.databases,.studies,.articles,.news.feeds.and.publications..Efma.also.provides.numerous.networking.opportunities.through.working.groups,.online.communities.and.international.meetings.

Efma8,.rue.Bayen.-.75017.ParisFranceTel:.+33.(0)1.47.42.52.72www.efma.com

For.media.inquiries.on.this.report,.please.contact:.Irina.McGurk,.Catalysis,.+44.(0)20.7759.2021,.fico@catalysis.co.uk..Karine.Coutinho,.Efma,.+33.1.47.42.69.82,.karine@efma.com

©.2012.Fair.Isaac.Corporation..All.rights.reserved..This.report.should.not.be.reproduced.or.redistributed,.in.whole.or.in.part,.without.the.written.permission.of.FICO.

Project Sponsors

EuropEan CrEdit risk outlook

results of the sixth European Credit risk Managers survey

november 2012