EUROPA 100% ERNEUERBAR · 2016-02-25 · 6 Europa 100% erneuerbar Christian Breyer...

EUROPA 100% ERNEUERBAR

Christian Breyer, Otto Koskinen and Dmitrii BogdanovLappeenranta University of Technology, Finland

14. Nationale Photovoltaik-Tagung, organised by Swissolar

Bern, February 22-23, 2016

2 Europa 100% erneuerbar

Christian Breyer ► [email protected]

Agenda

Motivation

Methodology and Data

Results for the Energy System

Results for Hourly Operation

Alternatives

Summary

Europa 100% erneuerbar


Europe’s RE potential

• Huge renewable resources of Europe:

• Perfect wind conditions around North Sea region

• Very good wind conditions and solar irradiation in Central Europe

• High existing hydro capacities (dams, run-of-river, PHS) provide flexibility

• Further flexibility from sustainable biomass resources (municipal waste and residues

from agricultural and forestry industries)

• Decarbonizing energy sector means electrification of services: growing electricity

demand

• Promising possibility to build cost competitive independent 100% RE system using

current technologies



Current status of the power plant mixCourtesy of Javier Farfan

Key insights:

• new installations dominated by

renewables

• nuclear as niche technology since years

• still some new coal capacities

• overall trend very positive



Agenda

Motivation




Alternatives

Summary



Key Objective

Definition of an optimally structured energy system based on 100% RE supply

• optimal set of technologies, best adapted to the availability of the regions’ resources,

• optimal mix of capacities for all technologies and every sub-region of Eurasia,

• optimal operation modes for every element of the energy system,

• least cost energy supply for the given constraints.

LUT Energy model, key features

• linear optimization model

• hourly resolution

• multi-node approach

• flexibility and expandability

Input data

• historical weather data for: solar irradiation, wind

speed and hydro precipitation

• available sustainable resources for biomass and geothermal energy

• synthesized power load data

• gas and water desalination demand

• efficiency/ yield characteristics of RE plants

• efficiency of energy conversion processes

• capex, opex, lifetime for all energy resources

• min and max capacity limits for all RE resources

• nodes and interconnections configuration



MethodologyFull system

Renewable energy sources

• PV rooftop

• PV ground-mounted

• PV single-axis tracking

• Wind onshore/ offshore

• Hydro run-of-river

• Hydro dam

• Geothermal energy

• CSP

• Waste-to-energy

• Biogas

• Biomass

Electricity transmission

• node-internal AC transmission

• interconnected by HVDC lines

Storage options

• Batteries

• Pumped hydro storage

• Adiabatic compressed air storage

• Thermal energy storage, Power-to-Heat

• Gas storage based on Power-to-Gas

• Water electrolysis

• Methanation

• CO2 from air

• Gas storage

Energy Demand

• Electricity

• Water Desalination

• Industrial Gas



Scenarios assumptions

Key data

• ~675 mio population (2030)

• ~4000 TWh electricity demand (2030)

• ~607 GW peak load (2030)

• ~6.49 mio km2 area

• ~14.7 bil m3/a water desalination demand (2030)

20 regions

NO: Norway

DK: Denmark

SE: Sweden

FI: Finland

BLT: Estonia, Latvia,

Lithuania

PL: Poland

CRS: Czech

Republic, Slovakia

AUH: Austria,

Hungary

CH: Switzerland

DE: Germany

BNL: Belgium,

Netherlands,

Luxembourg

FR: France

BRI: Ireland, UK

IS: Iceland

IBE: Portugal, Spain

IT: Italy

BKN-W: Slovenia,

Croatia, Bosnia &

Herzegovina, Serbia,

Kosovo, Montenegro,

Macedonia, Albania

BKN-E: Romania,

Bulgaria, Greece

UA: Ukraine, Moldova

TR: Turkey



Scenarios assumptionsGrid configurations

Assumption

Scenarios

Regional-wide

open trade

Area-wide

open trade

Area-wide open trade

Des-Gas

PV self-

consumptionX X X

Water Desalination X

Industrial Gas X

• Regional-wide open trade

• (no interconnections

between regions/ countries)

• Area-wide open trade

• (country-wide HVDC grids

are interconnected)

• Area-wide open trade with

water desalination and

industrial gas production



Scenarios assumptionsFinancial assumptions (year 2030)

TechnologyCapex

[€/kW]

Opex fix

[€/kW]

Opex var

[€/kWh]

Lifetime

[a]

PV rooftop 813 12 0 35

PV fixed-tilted 550 8 0 35

PV single-axis 620 9 0 35

Wind onshore 1000 20 0 25

Hydro Run-of-River 2560 115.2 0.005 60

Hydro dam 1650 66 0.003 60

Geothermal energy 4938 89 0 30

Water electrolysis 380 13 0.001 30

Methanation 234 5 0 30

CO2 scrubbing 356 14 0.0013 30

CCGT 775 19 0.002 30

OCGT 475 14 0.011 30

Biomass PP 2500 175 0.001 30

Wood gasifier CHP 1500 20 0.001 40

Biogas CHP 370 14.8 0.001 20

MSW incinerator 5240 235.8 0.007 20

Steam turbine 700 14 0 30

TechnologyCapex

[€/(m3∙a)]

Opex fix

[€/(m3∙a)]

Opex var

[€/(m3∙a)]

Lifetime

[a]

Water desalination 2.23 0.096 0 30

Generation costs

Technology Energy/Power Ratio [h]

Battery 6

PHS 8

A-CAES 100

Gas storage 80*24

Efficiency [%]

Battery 90

PHS 85

A-CAES 83

Gas storage 100

Water electrolysis 84

CO2 scrubbing 78

Methanation 77

CCGT 58

OCGT 43

Geothermal energy 24

MSW incinerator 34

Biogas CHP 40

Steam turbine 42

CSP collector 51



TechnologyCapex

[€/kWh]

Opex fix

[€/(kWh∙a)]

Opex var

[€/kWh]

Lifetime

[a]

Battery 150 10 0.0002 15

PHS 70 11 0.0002 50

A-CAES 31 0.4 0.0012 40

Gas storage 0.05 0.001 0 50

TechnologyCapex

[€/(m3∙h)]

Opex fix

[€/(m3∙h∙a)]

Opex var

[€/(m3∙h)]

Lifetime

[a]

Water storage 65 1 0 50

TechnologyCapex

[€/(m3∙h∙km)]

Opex fix

[€/(m3∙h∙km∙a)]

Energy

consumption

[kWh/(m3∙h∙km)]

Lifetime

[a]

Horizontal pumping 15 2.3 0.0004 30

Vertical pumping 23 2.4 0.0036 30

TechnologyCapex

[€/(kW∙km)]

Opex fix

[€/(kW∙km∙a)]

Opex var

[€/kW]

Lifetime

[a]

Transmission line 0.612 0.0075 0 50

Technology Capex [€/kW] Opex fix [€/(kW∙a)] Opex var [€/kW] Lifetime [a]

Converter station 180 1.8 0 50

Scenarios assumptionsFinancial assumptions (year 2030)

Storage and transmission costs

WACC = 7%



Scenarios assumptionsFull load hours

Data: based on NASA (Stackhouse P.W., Whitlock C.H., (eds.), 2009. SSE release 6.0)

reprocessed by DLR (Stetter D., 2012. Dissertation, Stuttgart)

FLH of region computed as weighed average of regional sub-areas (about 50 km x 50 km each):

0%-20% best “sub-areas” of region – 0.3



RegionPV fixed-tilted

FLH

PV single-axis

FLH

CSP

FLH

Wind

FLH

NO 882 1112 980 3525

DK 1070 1346 1241 4500

SE 985 1229 1164 2631

FI 986 1288 1261 2642

BLT 1063 1352 1250 3458

PL 1065 1269 1046 3041

IBE 1624 2095 2071 2620

FR 1302 1573 1380 3169

BNL 1030 1230 990 3893

BRI 956 1124 864 4623

DE 1053 1226 978 3355

CRS 1098 1292 1165 2550

AUH 1174 1379 1165 2056

BKN-W 1319 1582 1374 1725

BKN-E 1380 1680 1474 1953

IT 1439 1772 1625 2006

CH 1250 1488 1211 1772

TR 1593 2022 1901 2441

UA 1219 1484 1252 2658

IS 819 1093 913 4865



Scenarios assumptionsPV and Wind LCOE (weather year 2005, cost year 2030)



Scenarios assumptionsGeneration profile (area integrated)

PV generation profileAggregated area profile computed using earlier

presented weighed average rule.

Wind generation profile Aggregated area profile computed using

earlier presented weighed average rule.

Key insights:

• Seasonal complementary of PV and wind



Scenarios assumptionsLoad (area aggregated)

Total load (2030)

Synthesized load curves for each region

Total load (2030)

- including the impact of prosumers (less load)

Key insights:

• PV self-consumption reduces the peak load and the

gradients in the system



Agenda

Motivation




Alternatives

Summary



Results

Area integrated:

LCOW: 0.8 €/m3

LCOG: 0.070 €/kWhth,gas

2030 Scenario

Total

LCOE

Primary

LCOELCOC LCOS LCOT

Total ann.

cost

Total

CAPEX

RE

capacities

Generated

electricity

[€/kWh] [€/kWh] [€/kWh] [€/kWh] [€/kWh] [bn €] [bn €] [GW] [TWh]

Region-wide 0.066 0.047 0.003 0.016 0.000 278 2322 2085 4656

Area-wide† 0.064 0.047 0.002 0.012 0.003 255 2316 1868 4356Area-wide

Des-Gas*,** 0.055 0.043 0.001 0.007 0.003 307 2690 2342 5658

Total

LCOE***

prosumer

LCOE

primary

prosumer

LCOS

prosumer

Total ann.

Cost

prosumer

Total

CAPEX

prosumer

PV

capacities

prosumer

Generated

electricity

prosumer

[€/kWh] [€/kWh] [€/kWh] [bn €] [bn €] [GW] [TWh]

0.095 0.057 0.038 54 570 639 787

* additional demand 95% gas and

5% desalination

** LCOS does not include the cost

for the industrial gas (LCOG)

*** integrated scenario, fully

included in table above† older simulation, slightly

different assumptions



ResultsSelf-Consumption – Europe super-region area integrated

2030

RES COM IND

Electricity price [€/kWh] 0.233 0.201 0.170

PV LCOE [€/kWh] 0.036 0.047 0.047

Self-consumption PV LCOE [€/kWh] 0.054 0.063 0.061

Self-consumption PV and Battery LCOE [€/kWh] 0.090 0.102 0.093

Self-consumption LCOE [€/kWh] 0.089 0.102 0.093

Benefit [€/kWh] 0.144 0.099 0.077

Installed capacities RES COM IND

PV [GW] 243 194 202

Battery storage [GWh] 308 265 240

Generation RES COM IND

PV [TWh] 295 240 252

Battery storage [TWh] 83 71 65

Excess [TWh] 88 53 50

Utilization RES COM IND

Self-consumption of generated PV electricity [%] 67 75 77

Self-coverage market segment [%] 15 14 12

Self-coverage operators [%] 77 71 59

Source (electricity prices): Gerlach A., Werner Ch., Breyer Ch., 2014. Impact of Financing Cost on

Global Grid-Parity Dynamics till 2030, 29th EU PVSEC, Amsterdam, September 22-26



0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Independent sectors Integrated sectors

Tota

l ele

ctri

city

g

ener

atio

n R

E [

TW

h]

Results†

Benefits of electricity and industrial gas sectors integration – Area-wide desalination gas

Key insights:

• integration benefits: decrease in total

electricity demand and total annual

levelized cost

• decrease in total electricity curtailment

losses of 27.2% (49 TWh absolute) and in

total capex by 8.7% (293 bn€ absolute)

Ind Gas Sector

Desalination Sector

Power Sector

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Independent sectors Integrated sectors

Tota

l an

nu

al c

ost

[bn

€]

Ind Gas Sector

Desalination Sector

Power Sector

8.7% relative integration benefit

32 bn€ absolute integration benefit

5.9 % relative integration benefit

371 TWh absolute integration benefit

† older simulation, slightly different assumptions



ResultsImport / Export (year 2030) – Area integrated

Key insights:

• Storage usage very limited,

only 6% of total demand

provided by storage

• Electricity trade limited, only

14% traded among regions

• Cost optimum includes 4%

curtailed energy

• Net Importers: Sweden,

Finland, Benelux, AUH, Balkan-

E, Switzerland, Ukraine

• Net Exporters: Norway,

Denmark, Baltic, British Isles,

France, Balkan-W, Turkey



ResultsTotal LCOE (year 2030) – Region-wide open trade total



ResultsTotal LCOE (year 2030) – Region-wide open trade prosumers



ResultsTotal LCOE (year 2030) – Region-wide open trade total



ResultsTotal LCOE (year 2030) – Area integrated total



ResultsInstalled Capacities

2030

ScenarioWind PV

Hydro

RoR

Hydro

dams Biogas Biomass Waste Geothermal Battery PHS CAES PtG GT

[GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GWh] [GWh] [GWh] [GWel] [GW]

Region-wide 727 1061 141 56 68.9 50.1 7.9 6.4 798 671 3037 79 229

Integrated 1069 1142 141 54 54.9 38.0 7.7 6.7 758 568 0.0 197 55

2030

Scenario

PV

fixed-tilted

PV

single-axis

PV

prosumers

PV

total

Battery

system

Battery

prosumers

Battery

total

[GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GWh] [GWh] [GWh]

Region-wide 170.2 283.1 607.4 1061 39.7 757.9 798

Integrated 92.9 441.3 607.4 1142 0.0 757.9 758



Results†

Resource utilization – area-wide open trade and area-wide desalination gas

PV total capacity

1142 GW, +46%

Wind total capacity

1069 GW, +50%

Wind total capacity

715 GW


PV total capacity

781 GW

Area-wide open trade desalination gas

Key insights:

• demand for offshore wind in North Sea region, significant capacity additions

• unused solar PV potential lower in cost than wind offshore

• restiance against new power lines will push solar PV in the system

• impact on PtG/ PtX not yet clear




ResultsRegions Electricity Capacities – area-wide open trade

Key insights:

• PV plays a major role in Area-wide desalination

gas scenario for Central and Southern Europe

• PV single-axis and wind are the main sources of

electricity for water desalination and industrial

gas production

• resistance against new grids could drastically

increase the PV share

Key insights:

• Area-wide scenario shows small share of system PV

capacities in most of the regions, prosumers share

is significant

• Sunny conditions in Iberia lead to significant share

of PV single-axis

• >50% wind share in Baltic, Denmark, British Isles,

France, Poland, Ukraine

Area-wide open trade desalination gasArea-wide open trade†




ResultsStorages

Storage capacities Throughput of storages Full cycles per year

2030 ScenarioBattery* PHS A-CAES Gas Battery* PHS A-CAES Gas Battery* PHS A-CAES Gas

[TWhel] [TWhel] [TWhel] [TWhth] [TWhel] [TWhel] [TWhel] [TWhth] [-] [-] [-] [-]

Region-wide 0.851 0.560 1.270 241 229 114 30 708 269 204 23.3 3.0

Integration 0.850 0.449 0.0 119 230 88 0 101 270 196 - 0.9

Thermal energy storage share is negligible because of climate conditions being

unfavorable for CSP power plants and lack of competitiveness of TES with other

storage technologies.

* total



ResultsStorages Capacities – area-wide and area-wide open trade desalination gas

Key insights:

• Excess energy for area-wide open trade desalination gas lower than with independent sectors (from 141 TWh

to 132 TWh, also relative shares of excess energy decrease from 3.2% to 2.2% of total generation).

• Existing PHS storages play significant role

• Relative share of prosumers’ batteries increase significantly in integration scenario in Northern Europe

• Absolute storage capacities increase in Southern Europe and decrease in Central and Northern Europe when

sectors are integrated

Area-wide open trade†





ResultsStorages Operation – area integrated



Agenda

Motivation




Alternatives

Summary



ResultsNet importer region – Benelux (area integrated)



ResultsBalancing region – Italy (area integrated)



ResultsNet exporter region – Turkey (area integrated)



ResultsEnergy flow of the System of area-wide open trade desalination gas (2030)

Key insights:

• Wind is the major energy source with supply share of 45.2%

• PV generation share 27.0%

• A-CAES and gas storages are substituted by flexible demand of gas

synthesis and geographic balancing by grids

• Batteries used also as input to PtG as part of least cost solution

41

Comparison to other regionsRegions LCOE

total

region-

wide

LCOE

total area-

wide

Integrati

on

benefit **

storage

s*

grids

interreg

ional

trade*

Curtailm

ent

PV

prosum

ers*

PV

system

*

Wind * Biomass * hydro*

[€/MWh] [€/MWh] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%]

Northeast Asia 77 68 6.0% 10% 26% 6% 14.3% 27.5% 48.2% 7.8% 7.2%

Southeast Asia 67 64 9.5% 8% 3% 3% 7.2% 36.8% 22.0% 22.9% 7.6%

Eurasia 63 53 23.2% <1% 13% 3% 3.8% 9.9% 58.1% 13.0% 15.4%

South America 62 55 7.8% 5% 12% 5% 12.1% 28.0% 10.8% 28.0% 21.1%

Europe 66 64† 8.7% 3% 15% 3% 15.3% 11.7% 45.2% 7.2% 8.2%

Sub-Saharan Africa 61 58 16.2% 4% 8% 4% 16.2% 34.1% 31.1% 7.8% 8.2%

India/ SAARC 72 67 5.9% 22% 23% 3% 6.2% 43.5% 32.1% 10.9% 5.4%

Key insights:

• 100% RE is highly competitive

• least cost for high match of seasonal supply and demand

• PV share typically around 40% (range 14-50%)

• hydro and biomass limited the more sectors are integrated

• flexibility options limit storage to 10% and it will further

decrease with heat and mobility sector integration

• most generation locally within sub-regions (grids 2-26%)

* Integrated scenario, supply share

** annualised costs

sources: see www.researchgate.net/profile/Christian_Breyer


http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Christian_Breyer



Agenda

Motivation




Alternatives

Summary



LCOE of alternatives are NO alternative

source: Agora Energiewende, 2014. Comparing the Cost of Low-Carbon

Technologies: What is the Cheapest option, Berlin

Key insights

• PV-Wind-Gas is the least cost option

• nuclear and coal-CCS is too expensive

• nuclear and coal-CCS are high risk technologies

• high value added for PV-Wind due to higher capacities needed



Agenda

Motivation




Alternatives

Summary



Summary

• 100% Renewable Energy system is reachable in Europe!

• super grid interconnection further decreases average cost of electricity of the total

area from 66 €/MWh (country/region-only)

• integration benefit of gas and desalination is about 6-9% (generation and cost )

due to more efficient usage of storage and flexibility options

• share of wind is about 55%, PV is about 25%

• despite an upper limit 50% higher than the current capacity for hydro dams and

RoR, in all the considered scenarios PV and wind are more profitable technologies

according to the availability of the regions’ resources

• 100% RE system is more cost competitive than a nuclear-fossil option!

Thanks for your attention …

… and to the team!

The authors gratefully acknowledge the public financing of Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation, for the ‘Neo-Carbon Energy’ project under the number 40101/14.

Back-up Slides



ResultsEnergy flow of the System of region-wide open trade scenario (2030)

Key insights:

• PV generation share 30.5%, Wind is the major energy source (35.0%)

• Throughput of Battery is equal to A-CAES storage and PHS throughput

combined

• Throughput of Gas storage is over 4 times higher than A-CAES throughput



Results†

Energy flow of the System of area-wide open trade (2030)

Key insights:

• PV generation share 19.9%, Wind is the major energy source (45.6%)

• A-CAES storages are not used

• Gas storage is still feasible, gas storage throughput -58% compared to

region-wide scenario




Results†

Resource utilization – area-wide open trade and area-wide desalination gas

Key insights:

• New hydro Run-of-River is not competitive to PV and wind

• No increase in hydro RoR capacities for the area-wide open trade desalination-gas


Hydro dam

total capacity

52 GW

Hydro RoR

total capacity

141 GW


Hydro dam

total capacity

54 GW

Hydro RoR

total capacity

141 GW




ResultsHourly profile: Finland (January, area integrated)



ResultsHourly profile: Finland (March)



Wind & Temperature correlation

Temperature dependence of wind

power production and load in

Finland 1999 – 2002

Wind power production and load in

Nordic countries as a function of

temperatures in Finland in 2000 - 2001

WILMAR Fluctuations and predictability of wind and hydropower, 2004



Sustainable biomass resources

Region

Biomass potential [TWhLHV/a]

Solid wasteSolid

biomass

Biogas

sourcesTotal

NO 2.7 8.5 1.4 12.5

DK 3.1 15.2 28.4 46.6

SE 71.7 48.3 8.4 128.5

FI 60.6 36.5 14.8 112.0

BLT 22.6 24.5 6.4 53.5

PL 29.6 65.9 144.7 240.3

IBE 39.2 47.3 93.2 179.8

FR 37.7 148.0 149.5 335.2

BNL 16.4 8.3 80.1 104.8

BRI 27.1 36.7 114.5 178.4

DE 75.7 122.1 77.8 275.7

CRS 26.0 37.0 35.5 98.5

AUH 27.9 57.0 39.4 124.3

BKN-W 2.9 21.4 5.4 29.8

BKN-E 24.2 82.6 52.2 159.0

IT 22.0 38.6 85.0 145.6

CH 2.9 5.6 2.2 10.7

TR 13.9 41.3 6.4 61.5

UA 5.8 42.9 6.9 55.7

IS 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1

Total area 512.2 887.8 952.3 2352.3

Solid waste:

Municipal used wood + industrial

residues

Solid biomass:

Straw + Wood residues from

forestry

Biogas:

biowaste + excrements

References:

Biomass Futures – Atlas of EU biomass potentials

2030 (2012)

DBFZ - Regionale und globale räumliche Verteilung

von Biomassepotenzialen 2020 (2009)

Sustainability criteria applied:

-80% GHG compared to fossil (iLUC included)

No biomass from areas of high biodiversity or high

carbon stock, no energy crops

EUROPA 100% ERNEUERBAR · 2016-02-25 · 6 Europa 100% erneuerbar Christian Breyer...

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