euroFOT: large scale field operational tests - Impact Assessment

www.eurofot-ip.eu

euroFOT: Large Scale Field Operational Tests – Impact Assessment

ITS World Congress

Ahmed Benmimoun

Stockholm, September 2009

Institut für Kraftfahrzeuge, RWTH Aachen University

Martijn van de NoortTNO - Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research

www.eurofot-ip.euSeptember 2009 A. Benmimoun - ITS WC

Contents

• Motivation and Objectives• Approach

Safety ImpactsTraffic Efficiency ImpactsEnvironmental Impacts

• Summary and Outlook

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Objectives of Data Analysis (1/2)

To quantify the impacts on EU level of the functions tested in the FOT on traffic efficiency, safety and the environment

Taking into account various penetration ratesProviding input for the socio-economic cost-benefit analysis (CBA)

September 2009 A. Benmimoun - ITS WC

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Objectives of Data Analysis (2/2)

The following impacts will be quantified for use in the CBA:

Traffic safety: changes in the number of accidents with fatalities, injuries (severe, slight) or material damage onlyTraffic efficiency:

direct effects: travel time changes, but also homogenisation/reduction of congestion effects for environmentalimpact assessmentindirect effects: changes in the amount of accident related congestion (based on changes in number of accidents)

Environment: changes in fuel consumption and emissions of CO2

due to direct traffic efficiency effectsdue to changes in accident related congestion


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Data Analysis Approach


...VMC-Fleet

SQL Database

CO-, CV-, CV+E-data

VMC-Specific Common

Questionnaires

Data Analysis

Data quality analysis

Data quality analysis

Data processingData processing

Data qualityanalysis

Data qualityanalysis

PI‐calculationPI‐calculation

Data miningData mining Testing of VMC

specific hyp

othe

ses

Testing of VMC

specific hyp

othe

ses

Global assessmentGlobal

assessment

Testing of commonhypotheses

Testing of commonhypotheses

QualityassessmentQuality

assessment

Cost Benefit Analysis

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General Approach for the Impact AssessmentThe two following methods are planned for the impact assessment,which needs to provide input for the CBA:•Direct route: Impact assessment directly from the FOT-data (scaling up via situational variables)

Direct impacts are more reliable because data from the FOT is used without assumptions

•Modelling route: Impact assessment using models to assess effects for higher penetration rates (also includes scaling up via situational variables)

Especially for functions that influence behaviour of other vehicles (e.g. ACC) the direct route is not sufficientUse of FOT data as input for models (e.g. changes in driving behaviour)Interaction with other (equipped and non-equipped) vehicles can be modelledHigher penetration rates than found on the road in the FOT can be modelledPossibility to analyse network effects


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Tools for Modelling Activties


PELOPS

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Safety Impacts


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Efficiency Impacts


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Environmental Impacts


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Summary and Outlook

Current status:• Basic methodology defined so far and described in a Data

Analysis Plan for each Vehicle Management Centre in euroFOTNext steps• Refinement of methodology and approach for impact assessment

Translation of surrogate measures (changes in driver and driving behaviour) into changes in accident riskTranslation of decrease of incidents into decrease of accidents...

• Test and evaluation of the methodology with data from FOT Pilot• Finalisation of methodology for impact assessment• Conduction of impact assessment for the considered functions• Conduction of a socio-economic cost-benefit analysis• Final results are to be expected for summer 2011


euroFOT: large scale field operational tests - Impact Assessment

Technology

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