EUROCONTROL 5-Year Forecast 2020- 2024 ... EUROCONTROL 5-Year Forecast 2020- 2024 Detailed Forecasts

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Transcript of EUROCONTROL 5-Year Forecast 2020- 2024 ... EUROCONTROL 5-Year Forecast 2020- 2024 Detailed Forecasts

  • EUROCONTROL 5-Year Forecast 2020- 2024

    Detailed Forecasts

    Edition: November 2020

  • EUROCONTROL STATFOR

    Edition Validity Date: November 2020 Page: ii

    TABLE OF CONTENT

    DOCUMENT CONTROL ................................................................................................... I

    1 SUMMARY OF FORECAST IFR MOVEMENTS PER TRAFFIC ZONE .................... 1

    2 SUMMARY OF FORECAST IFR MOVEMENTS PER TRAFFIC ZONE .................... 6

    3 SUMMARY OF EN-ROUTE SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER TRAFFIC ZONE .... 10

    4 SUMMARY OF EN-ROUTE SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER TRAFFIC ZONE .... 13

    5 SUMMARY OF TERMINAL NAVIGATION SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER TERMINAL CHARGING ZONE ........................................................................................................ 16

    6 SUMMARY OF TERMINAL NAVIGATION SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER TERMINAL CHARGING ZONE ........................................................................................................ 18

    7 FIVE-YEAR ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS ........................ 20

    Scenario headlines

    1. Scenario 1. Vaccine Summer 2021: Vaccine widely made available for travelers (or end of pandemic) by Summer 2021.

    2. Scenario 2. Vaccine Summer 2022: Vaccine widely made available for travelers (or end of pandemic) by Summer 2022.

    3. Scenario 3. Vaccine not effective: Lingering infection and low passenger confidence

    Region Definition Annex

    © EUROCONTROL 2020

    This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the source and it is not used for commercial purposes (i.e. for financial gain). The information in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from EUROCONTROL.

    For further information please contact STATFOR, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service.

    statfor.info@eurocontrol.int https://www.eurocontrol.int/forecasting

    https://www.eurocontrol.int/sites/default/files/2020-11/eurocontrol-forecast-2020-2024-region-definition.pdf https://www.eurocontrol.int/forecasting/ https://www.eurocontrol.int/form/statfor

  • EUROCONTROL Five-Year Forecast 2020-2024 Three Scenarios for Recovery from COVID-19

    Table 1. Summary of Forecast IFR Movements Per Traffic Zone (Thousands) Nov-20

    Sc1 . . . . . . 96 161 205 228 247 2.3% . . Sc2 198 202 187 194 206 221 96 112 167 195 221 0.0% . . Sc3 . . . . . . 96 109 131 154 174 -4.6% . . Sc1 . . . . . . 24 38 53 59 65 -0.6% . . Sc2 51 42 39 55 68 67 24 28 43 50 58 -2.8% . . Sc3 . . . . . . 24 27 34 40 46 -7.2% . . Sc1 . . . . . . 585 998 1,230 1,340 1,436 1.0% . 1.0% Sc2 1,152 1,168 1,174 1,232 1,301 1,365 583 689 1,003 1,151 1,295 -1.0% 3.4% -1.0% Sc3 . . . . . . 583 672 795 920 1,033 -5.4% . -5.4% Sc1 . . . . . . 73 114 147 161 175 4.1% . . Sc2 127 129 135 142 152 143 72 83 123 141 159 2.2% . . Sc3 . . . . . . 72 81 100 116 131 -1.7% . . Sc1 . . . . . . 143 210 312 336 354 1.5% . . Sc2 269 263 278 293 319 329 143 161 262 294 328 -0.1% . . Sc3 . . . . . . 143 159 215 244 271 -3.8% . . Sc1 . . . . . . 531 878 1,063 1,158 1,236 -0.2% . -0.2% Sc2 1,133 1,165 1,188 1,240 1,275 1,249 529 621 880 1,005 1,126 -2.1% 2.0% -2.1% Sc3 . . . . . . 529 607 713 820 914 -6.0% . -6.0% Sc1 . . . . . . 181 309 389 431 466 1.5% . . Sc2 298 311 319 359 389 432 180 212 317 368 418 -0.7% . . Sc3 . . . . . . 180 207 248 291 329 -5.3% . . Sc1 . . . . . . 357 580 737 817 885 0.1% . 0.1% Sc2 683 767 758 783 871 879 356 407 604 701 799 -1.9% 5.2% -1.9% Sc3 . . . . . . 355 399 479 561 635 -6.3% . -6.3% Sc1 . . . . . . 159 261 316 346 372 0.8% . 0.8% Sc2 284 281 310 333 356 358 156 185 260 299 338 -1.1% 4.8% -1.1% Sc3 . . . . . . 156 181 211 245 275 -5.1% . -5.1% Sc1 . . . . . . 294 506 635 702 758 1.2% . 1.2% Sc2 520 535 540 587 647 714 293 347 517 599 680 -1.0% 6.6% -1.0% Sc3 . . . . . . 293 339 406 475 537 -5.5% . -5.5% Sc1 . . . . . . 166 253 340 387 430 0.9% . 0.9% Sc2 304 319 322 360 394 411 166 183 282 331 381 -1.5% 6.2% -1.5% Sc3 . . . . . . 166 180 221 262 299 -6.2% . -6.2% Sc1 . . . . . . 346 581 719 781 834 -0.8% . -0.8% Sc2 700 746 797 817 877 867 344 403 587 672 755 -2.7% 4.4% -2.7% Sc3 . . . . . . 343 394 467 540 605 -6.9% . -6.9% Sc1 . . . . . . 279 459 553 599 636 -1.0% . -1.0% Sc2 619 626 640 647 670 669 277 319 455 518 582 -2.8% 1.6% -2.8% Sc3 . . . . . . 276 312 364 419 469 -6.9% . -6.9% Sc1 . . . . . . 95 151 192 207 220 -0.8% . -0.8% Sc2 191 194 200 215 232 229 95 108 159 180 201 -2.5% 3.6% -2.5% Sc3 . . . . . . 95 106 129 148 164 -6.4% . -6.4%

    Belarus

    2019 2020 2021 2022IFR Movements (Thousands) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 AAGR 2020-

    2024 (vs 2019)

    Albania

    Armenia

    Austria

    Azerbaijan

    2023 2024

    Belgium/Luxembourg

    Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Bulgaria

    Canary Islands

    Croatia

    Cyprus

    Czech Republic

    Denmark

    Estonia

    RP2 AAGR 2015-2019 (vs 2014)

    RP3 AAGR 2020-2024 (vs 2019)

    © EUROCONTROL 2020 1

  • EUROCONTROL Five-Year Forecast 2020-2024 Three Scenarios for Recovery from COVID-19

    Sc1 . . . . . . 117 198 238 257 274 -0.8% . -0.8% Sc2 248 248 247 263 283 285 115 133 191 219 246 -2.9% 2.9% -2.9% Sc3 . . . . . . 114 129 152 176 197 -7.2% . -7.2% Sc1 . . . . . . 1,394 2,353 2,875 3,147 3,374 0.0% . 0.0% Sc2 2,947 2,992 3,124 3,241 3,328 3,372 1,369 1,638 2,351 2,701 3,042 -2.0% 2.7% -2.0% Sc3 . . . . . . 1,365 1,597 1,883 2,178 2,443 -6.2% . -6.2% Sc1 . . . . . . 64 110 142 158 173 4.5% . . Sc2 116 122 126 142 153 138 64 75 115 135 156 2.5% . . Sc3 . . . . . . 64 74 90 107 124 -2.2% . . Sc1 . . . . . . 1,456 2,417 2,918 3,154 3,356 -0.2% . -0.2% Sc2 3,030 3,080 3,146 3,259 3,404 3,394 1,439 1,678 2,387 2,714 3,037 -2.2% 2.3% -2.2% Sc3 . . . . . . 1,436 1,637 1,911 2,192 2,445 -6.4% . -6.4% Sc1 . . . . . . 388 623 788 874 944 1.3% . 1.3% Sc2 678 713 700 745 832 884 383 437 645 746 841 -1.0% 5.5% -1.0% Sc3 . . . . . . 382 427 509 592 665 -5.5% . -5.5% Sc1 . . . . . . 369 614 770 846 911 0.4% . 0.4% Sc2 670 744 776 822 904 892 368 428 629 726 823 -1.6% 5.9% -1.6% Sc3 . . . . . . 368 418 499 582 655 -6.0% . -6.0% Sc1 . . . . . . 81 127 166 187 202 0.7% . . Sc2 145 160 180 200 211 195 80 90 143 165 186 -1.0% . . Sc3 . . . . . . 80 89 119 138 155 -4.5% . . Sc1 . . . . . . 252 424 538 599 644 -0.1% . -0.1% Sc2 537 566 610 621 635 647 251 286 449 518 586 -2.0% 3.8% -2.0% Sc3 . . . . . . 251 281 358 417 469 -6.2% . -6.2% Sc1 . . . . . . 68 123 158 179 201 -0.4% . . Sc2 122 131 144 171 197 205 67 81 126 151 179 -2.7% . . Sc3 . . . . . . 67 78 96 118 139 -7.5% . . Sc1 . . . . . . 796 1,365 1,705 1,874 2,013 0.5% . 0.5% Sc2 1,680 1,696 1,734 1,786 1,880 1,962 782 948 1,389 1,602 1,807 -1.6% 3.2% -1.6% Sc3 . . . . . . 779 924 1,105 1,284 1,444 -6.0% . -6.0% Sc1 . . . . . . 127 203 262 283 299 0.1% . 0.1% Sc2 243 244 246 268 290 298 126 145 217 245 274 -1.7% 4.2% -1.7% Sc3 . . . . . . 126 142 175 200 223 -5.7% . -5.7% Sc1 . . . . . . 251 446 564 626 673 0.7% . 0.7% Sc2 480 505 559 613 634 651 249 306 461 539 611 -1.3% 6.3% -1.3% Sc3 . . . . . . 248 298 368 434 490 -5.5% . -5.5% Sc1 . . . . . . 139 211 275 295 311 0.5% . 0.5% Sc2 257 260 261 277 301 303 139 156 230 259 287 -1.1% 3.3% -1.1% Sc3 . . . . . . 138 154 189 214 237 -4.8% . -4.8% Sc1 . . . . . . 52 81 107 121 133 0.4% . 0.4% Sc2 102 102 110 116 125 130 52 58 89 104 118 -2.0% 5.1% -2.0% Sc3 . . . . . . 52 57 69 81 92 -6.7% . -6.7% Sc1 . . . . . . 23 38 51 57 62 2.2% . . Sc2 56 45 42 50 55 55 23 27 42 49 56 0.1% . . Sc3 . . . . . . 23 27 33 39 44 -4.5% . . Sc1 . . . . . . 161 294 363 403 439 -0.2% . . Sc2 359 361 383 411 431 443 159 196 292 343 395 -2.3% . . Sc3 . . . . . . 159 190 228 271 312 -6.8% . .

    France

    Finland

    Malta

    Georgia

    Germany

    Greece

    Hungary

    Iceland

    Ireland

    Israel

    Italy

    Latvia

    Lisbon FIR

    Lithuania

    Morocco

    Moldova

    © EUROCONTROL 2020 2

  • EUROCONTROL Five-Year Forecast 2020-2024 Three Scenarios for Recovery from COVID-19

    Sc1 . . . . . . 562 940 1,139 1,234 1,312 -0.3% . -0.3% Sc2 1,138 1,176 1,241 1,287 1,329 1,332 560 650 938 1,070 1,196 -2.1% 3.2% -2.1% Sc3 . . . . . . 560 635 755 868 969 -6.2% . -6.2% Sc1 . . . . . . 97 165 206 228 247 2.1% . . Sc2 146 152 146 171 193 223 97 113 168 195 222 -0.1% . . Sc3 . . . . . . 97 111 132 155 175 -4.7% . . Sc1 . . . . . . 346 510 587 624 652 2.0% . 2.0% Sc2 619 603 599 591 594 591 328 363 459 503 548 -1.5% -0.9% -1.5% Sc3 . . . . . . 324 361 396 428 459 -5.0% . -5.0% Sc1 . . . . . . 389 633 807 872 927 0.3% . 0.3% Sc2 702 699 755 793 872 912 386 447 665 759 847 -1.5% 5.4% -1.5% Sc3 . . . . . . 386 437 533 614 687 -5.5% . -5.5% Sc1 . . . . . . 308 496 628 693 750 0.1% . 0.1% Sc2 598 635 621 673 738 747 306 350 515 596 677 -2.0% 4.5% -2.0% Sc3 . . . . . . 306 343 410 479 540 -6.3% . -6.3% Sc1 . . .