Eu Kyoto Prototcol Class Presentation Sumiko
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Transcript of Eu Kyoto Prototcol Class Presentation Sumiko
IB 565
Culture and Doing Business in The European Union
Albert H. Callewaert
Keith R. Dickson
August 22, 20081
Introduction
Global Warming Awareness Exam
Kyoto Protocol History
EU’s Adoption Of The Kyoto Protocol
Progress Report 2006 Kyoto Protocol Implementation
Observations Of The Kyoto Protocol’s Impact On The EU’s Economy
Asia Pacific Partnership Plan
2
INTRODUCTION
3
International Agreement created to address the Alleged “Global Warming” issue
Sets binding targets for signatory countries and the European Union for reducing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions
Carbon dioxide (CO2)Methane (CH4)Nitrous oxide (N2O)Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)
Reduce CO2 Emissions on Average 6% below Signatory States’1990 levels
4Source: www.wikipedia.com
National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationAn overall increase in world temperatures which may be caused by additional heat being trapped by greenhouse gases
United States Geological ServiceAn increase of the earth's temperature by a few degrees resulting in an increase in the volume of water which contributes to sea level rise
The Encyclopedia of EarthThe combined result of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and changes in solar irradiance.
New South Wales Department of Primary Industries The expected consequence of an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases by human activity.
5Source: http://www.google.com/search
6Source: www.logicalscience.com/climate_change/climate
“ There are lies…….
There are damn lies……
And then there are statistics”
7Source: http://www.cmgww.com/historic/twain/about/photos.htm
cum hoc ergo propter hoc (“with this, therefore because of this” )
ExampleA occurs in correlation with BTherefore, A causes B
a logical fallacy
“Correlation does not imply Causation”
Four Other PossibilitiesB may be the cause of ASome unknown third factor causes the relationship between A and BThe relationship is so complex, that it can be labeled “coincidental”B may be the cause of A at the same time that A is the cause of B (Contradiction)
ConclusionNo conclusion can be made regarding the existence or the direction of a cause and effect relationship without further investigation
8Source: www.wikipedia.com
Anthropogenic: Resulting from Human Activities
9
Global Temperatures
Source: http://politicalhumor.about.com
Arctic Polar Ice Cap MeltingEndangered Polar Bears
Source: Sumiko Ishikawa 10
11www.globalwarmingheartland.org/
Question 1:“Global Warming” is a real phenomenon. Earth’s temperature is
increasingTrueFalse
118,000 yrs ago much of North America, Europe, and Asia was covered with ice
18,000 yrs ago warming of the Earth began
15,000 yrs ago advance of glaciers ceased, sea levels rose
8,000 yrs ago Bearing Strait land bridge under water
Since the end of Ice Age Earth’s average temperature has risen 16 degrees F and sea levels has risen 300 feet
118 kya 18 kya 20088 kya12
Question 2:The “Greenhouse Effect” is real.
TrueFalse
Direct Sunlight
Radiant Energy Greenhouse
Effect
13
Question 3:The main cause of Global Warming is:
Pollution from factories and automobilesOrbital eccentricities of the Earth and variations in the Sun’s output.The Greenhouse Effect
Major Causes of Global Temperature Shifts
Astronomical Causes
Solar Variability (Sunspots): 11 year and 206 year cycles.
Precession of the Equinoxes: 23,000 year cycle.
Variation of Tilt of Earth’s Axis: 41,000 year cycle
Eccentricity of Earth’s Elliptical Orbit: 100,000 year cycle
14
15
Sunspots and Solar Flares
Variation in Tilt of Earth’s Axis Eccentricity of Earth’s Elliptical Orbit
Precession of the Equinoxes
Question 4:The Greenhouse Effect is caused primarily by:
Water Vapor & Cloud DropletsCarbon DioxideOzone-Destroying aerosol sprays
66% to 85% of the Greenhouse Effect is the result of Water Vapor & Cloud Droplets
Greenhouse Effect is limited primarily to increasing nighttime temperatures
The World’s natural wetlands produce more Greenhouse Gas Contributions annually than all human sources combined
`
Major Greenhouse
Gas
% of Greenhouse
Effect
Water vapor 36% to 66%
Water vapor & Cloud droplets
66% to 85%
Carbon dioxide 9% to 26%
Methane 4% to 9%
Ozone 3% to 7%
www.windows.ucar.edu 16
Question 5:Which most accurately describes the effects of Global Warming in the
United States over the past 100 years?a) Temperature rise of > 5 degrees Cb) Temperature rise of >2 degrees Cc) Temperature rise of <1 degrees C
Two cycles:
1900 – 1940: warming
1940 – 1980: cooling
1980 – present: warming
17
Question 6:Carbon Dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere today are at record high levels.
a) Truec) False
CO2 is a small component of the Earth’s atmosphere currently at 380 parts per million (0.038%)
Compared to former geological times, the Earth is CO2 impoverished
18
Late Carboniferous to Early Permian Periods• Both atmospheric CO2 and temperatures were as low as they
are today known as the Quaternary Period
19
Question 7:Carbon Dioxide from coal-fired power plants damages forests.
TrueFalse
CO2 principal gas required for trees and plants to survive
Primitive forests debuted 375 million years ago
Beginning of Carboniferous Period
(CO2 concentrations ~ 2500 ppm)
As CO2 concentrations declined to 350 ppm so did plant growth
Photosynthesis
OXYGEN (O2)
CARBON DIOXIDE
(CO2)20
Question 8: Which answer below provides the best explanation for the following
temperature record?a) Industrial pollution from factories, power plants, & cars caused global warmingb) Natural variations in global temperatures may occur in roughly 500 year cyclesc) Global cooling occurred as a result of the Renaissance Period
Primary Cause of Variations in Global Temperatures:
Cycles of the sun
Earth’s orbit about the sun
21
Question 9: Which of the following is Not True about an increasing greenhouse
effect?a) The consensus of scientists is that the problem warrants drastic action.b) Night temperatures may increase, but daytime temperatures will not.c) The coldest, driest regions of the planet will warm first.
1989 “The Union of Concerned Scientists” circulated a petition
Urged recognition of global warming as potentially a great danger to mankind.
Signed by 700 scientists
Four of the signers had involvement in climatology. (Richard S. Lindzen, MIT)
President Clinton and Al Gore cite a letter
Signed by 2600 scientists
Global warming will have catastrophic effects on humanity
Less than 10% involved with climatology (Citizens of a Sound Economy)22
Question 10: Which temperature measuring method most accurately measures global warming?
a) Ground based thermometers.b) Orbiting weather satellites.c) Weather balloons.
Global Warming effects result from temperature increases in the Middle Troposphere (10 kilometers altitude)
Mid Troposhere should warm faster than the Earth’s surface
During the past 100 years
Earth’s surface temperatures increased by 0.6 degrees C
During the Period 2002 – 2007:
Mid Troposhere temperature has decreased slightly
Earth’s surface temperatures have stopped warming
CO2 concentrations have increased www.visitandlearn.co.uk 23
10 Correct: Excellent, You know your facts
9 Correct: Good, You are an independent thinker
8 Correct: Fair, You are on your way.
7 or Less Correct: Check out globalwarmingheartland.org to learn the facts about Global Warming
Global Warming is occurring, but IT IS NOT A CRISIS
Exam Source: www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/GlobWarmTest/start.html 24
Kyoto Protocol History
25
The US Supreme Court has ruled that carbon dioxide (CO2) is a pollutant and that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has the right to regulate CO2 emissions from new cars.Source: http://www.dieselnet.com
CO2
Al Gore’s Carbon Footprint
Estate in Belle Meade area of Nashville, Tennessee
20 rooms 8 bathrooms
Average American Household Annual Electricity Consumption: 10,656 kWh
Al Gore Belle Meade Estate Annual Electricity Consumption (2006): 221,000 kWh
Source: Business Week: Bruce Nussbaum. February 26, 2007 26
United States Kazakhstan
27Source: www.ciaworldfactbook.com
Source: www.wikipedia.com
Scientific Body established 1988 to evaluate the RISK of CLIMATE CHANGE
Created the United Nations
Issued first assessment report in 1990 400 scientistsIncreasing levels of atmospheric CO2
Advised “Global Warming” is real & something should be done about it!
Led to creation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Current RoleDoes not conduct its own scientific inquiries Reviews worldwide researchCompiles special reports and technical papers
2007 shared Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore
Source: unfcc.int/kyoto_protocol 28
International Environmental Treaty Produced at the United Nations Conference onEnvironment and Development (UNCED) Rio de Janeiro June 3 – 14, 1992
Objective Achieve stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at a low enough level to prevent anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
Legal AuthorityLegally non binding
Establishment of Mandatory Greenhouse Gases LimitsNone
Entered Into ForceMarch 21, 1994
Provision For Future Updates (Protocols)Establish mandatory emissions limits
Source: unfcc.int/kyoto_protocol 29
Protocol to UNFCCCAdopted December 11, 1997Establishes binding targets for GHG emissions for Industrialized
Countries plus the EU
Entered Into ForceFebruary 16, 2005
Emissions Targets ComplianceOn Average – Reduction of 5% Below 1990 Baseline During Phase 2 (2008 – 2012 )Country Governments Devolve Reductions to Individual IndustriesPrimarily via National MeansFlexibility Mechanisms
Emissions Trading (ETS) – Market BasedClean Development Mechanisms (CDM) – Project BasedJoint Implementation Projects (JI) – Project Based
Source: unfcc.int/kyoto_protocol 30
European Union Adoption Of
The Kyoto Protocol
31
Annex IDeveloped Countries
Australia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States of America
Annex IIDeveloped Countries that pay costs to Developing Countries for Emission Reduction ProjectsAustralia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States of America
Developing CountriesNo emissions obligation other than monitoring and reporting (Brazil, China, India)
Cannot sell emission credits to Developed Countries
Receive funding and technologies from Annex II countries, promote rapid growth
Can volunteer to become Annex I countries when sufficiently developed
32
EU Member States
Source: unfcc.int/kyoto_protocol
European Union Climate Change Programme
Assemble experts from member states to develop EU Policies and advise the European Council
Assist in implementation of the Kyoto Protocol across the EU
Kyoto Protocol Emission Reduction Targets: 8% below 1990 Levels EU 15 states by 2012
33Source: ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/eccp.htm
Market Based Mechanism
Applies to Countries withTargets for Emissions Limitations & Reductions
Objective Short Term: Encourage heavy emitting industries to reduce emissions from current technologies Long Term: Encourage investment in lower to zero emissions technologies
Targets expressed as Levels of Allowed Emissions Divided into Assigned Amounts Units (AAU = 1 Tonne CO2)
Countries with excess capacity can sell this capacity to countries that will exceed their limits
Carbon Market: CO2 bought and sold just like any other commodity
Source: unfcc.int/kyoto_protocol 34
Largest Multi-Country Multi-Sector Emissions Trading Scheme
Covers more than 12,000 installations collectively responsible for 50% CO2 emissions
Entered into force October 25, 2003
Trading PeriodsFirst: October 25, 2005 through December 31, 2007Second: January 1, 2008 through December 31, 2012Third: January 1, 2013 through December 31, 2020
Source: PEW Center On Global Climate Change 35
36
Source: http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/spotlights/europe-carbon.html
Source: www.co2prices.com
Project Based Mechanism
Applies to Annex I CountriesEmission Reduction and Limitation Commitments
Initiate An Emission Reduction Project In Developing Countries
eg. Rural Electrification Project Using Solar PanelsHigh Energy Efficient Boilers
Earns Saleable Certified Emission Reduction Credits (CER)(1) CER = (1) Tonne of CO2
Overseen by the CDM Executive BoardAnswerable to the Countries that Ratified the Kyoto Protocol
Source: unfcc.int/kyoto_protocol 37
Market Based Mechanism
Applies to Annex I CountriesEmission Reduction CommitmentEmission Limitation Commitment
Initiate An Emission Reduction or Emission Removal Project In Another Annex I Country
Must provide reduction in emissions removal by sourcesOr must provide an enhancement of removals by sinks
Earns Saleable Emission Reduction Units (ERU)(1) ERU = (1) Tonne of CO2
Source: unfcc.int/kyoto_protocol 38
India - 459 projects - 278 Mt CO2Brazil - 190 projects - 148 Mt CO2China - 177 projects - 519 Mt CO2Mexico - 132 projects - 57 Mt CO2Other countries – 316 projects
More than half of all CDM projects (52%) relate to renewable energy (geothermal, tidal, wind, hydro, biomass or solar)
15 fluorinated greenhouse gas projects (8 in China, 4 in India, 1 in
Mexico) account for almost one-third of expected emissions reductions
Expected market for JI and CDM in the EU ETS of up to 1.3 billiontonnes during 2008-12
39Source: Jos Delbeke Carbon Expo Cologne, 3 May 2007
40Source: unfcc.int/kyoto_protocol
European Commission Proposal (January 23, 2008)
Develop EU Wide Polices
Objective: Implement the Energy and Climate decisions made by the European Council (March 2007) across all EU-27 member states
Commitment - Reduce GHG emissions 20% below 1990 levels by 2020
Agreement – Reduce GHG emissions 30% below 1990 levels by 2020Providing other Developed Countries make similar agreements
Providing Economically Advanced Developing Countries contribute according to ability
Mandatory Target - Renewable Energy 20% of the EU’s Energy Mix including a minimum 10% Biofuels by 2020
Review by European Parliament and European Council (Goal: Final Adoption by 2009)
Source: PEW Center On Global Climate Change 41
Expansion of EU ETS
New EU-Wide Rules to Harmonize Allocation of Emission Allowances across Member States
Emission Reduction Targets at the Member State Level for Sectors not Covered by the EU ETS: (Buildings, Transport, and Waste)
Legally Enforceable Renewable Energy Targets for Member States
New Rules on Carbon Capture and Storage and Environmental Subsidies
Source: PEW Center On Global Climate Change 42
Current (Phases 1 & 2)
Allocated by Individual Member States as Specified in Their National Allocation Plans (NAP)
Certain Facilities Within a Given Sector Faced Significantly Different Allocations Across Member States
Proposed (Phase 3)
Allocations Determined at EU Commission Level
Allocation Prices - Auctions Free Allocations Based on Harmonization Across Member States
Source: PEW Center On Global Climate Change 43
Current (Phases 1 & 2)
No Regulations
Proposed (Phase 3)
Geologically Stored CO2 Emissions – No Allowances Need To Be SurrenderedCCS CO2 Will Not Receive Free AllocationsLegislative Framework To Be Developed To Provide Certainty To Industry And Remove barriers to DeploymentSource: newsimg.bbc.co.uk
Source: PEW Center On Global Climate Change 44
Progress Report 2006 Kyoto Protocol EU Implementation
45
46Source: Dr. Margo Thorning, Managing Director ICCF at the US House of Representatives July 11, 2007
47
European Union Member States Greenhouse Gas Emissions In CO2 Compared To Kyoto Protocol Targets
Source: European Commission, based on European Environment Agency information
48
Source: Dr. Margo Thorning, Managing Director ICCF at the US House of Representatives July 11, 2007
OBSERVATIONS OF THE KYOTO PROTOCOL’S IMPACT ON THE
EUROPEAN UNION’S ECONOMY
49
“We only understand 10 percent of the climate issue. That is not enough to wreck the world economy with Kyoto-like measures”
Taken from: “Issues in The Current State of Climate Science” (March, 2006), The Center for Science and Public policy. Washington, DC
--Henk Tennekes, former research director, Dutch Royal Meteorological Institute
50Source: www.heartland.org
“We understand public anxiety about climate change, but are concerned that many of these much publicized predictions are ill informed and misleading.
Taken from: “Issues in The Current State of Climate Science” (March, 2006), The Center for Science and Public policy. Washington, DC
Paul Reiter: Professor of Medical Entomology at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, France Member of the World Health Organization Expert Advisory Committee on Vector Biology and ControlFormer employee of the Center for Disease Control (Dengue Branch) for 22 yearsSpecialist in mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue feverFormer member of IPCC
51Source: www.heartland.org
September 2001Tony Blair: Pledged UK support for Kyoto Protocol, warning that action was essential to avoid “catastrophic consequences"
June 2007 Tony Blair: Promised to work for a newinternational framework agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol at expiration in 2012
The new agreement has to include China, India and the United States"We need a technological revolution comparable to the internet” (In line with US Bush Administration Position)
The UK Industry Lobby CBI: “Industry cannot keep shouldering the burden. Of all reductions in emissions achieved in the UK since 1990, business has been responsible for delivering 80 per cent of them"
52
Source: www.number10.gov.uk
Source: http://www.cbi.org.uk
Open Europe - London based eurosceptic think-tank set up by the UK business community to 'campaign for reform‘
in the European Union, Not Withdrawl
Max Andersson (August 2007) Green Party Member of the Swedish Parliament Foreward to Open Europe Report: “Europe’s Dirty Little
Secret: Why The EU Emissions Trading Scheme Isn’t Working
“ The ETS has been an embarrassing failure in the first phase of operation”
“6% more permits to pollute have been printed than there is pollution”
“The price of carbon has collapsed to almost “Zero”, creating no incentive to reduce pollution”
“Emissions from installations covered by the ETS actually rose by 0.8% during Phase 1”
53Source: www.openeurope.org.uk
Leader of Italian Liberal ReformersMember Italian ParliamentFormer Member European Parliament
October 2007“Global warming is not an emergency. Climate change is normal”
“The European Union chose the “struggle” against global warming as a way to characterize itself on the international arena”
“According to International Council for Capital Formation (ICCF), Kyoto would negatively impact future EU GDP and employment”
“We agree with Open Europe that things have gone backwards for the ETS”
“ In the second phase of the ETS member states will be able to “import” external Kyoto “credits” from developing countries in order to meet their targets, which are highly flawed, and often fraudulent”
54Source: www.globalwarming.org
“The ETS won’t reduce emissions in Europe, and won’t encourage companies to invest in innovative technologies”
“By purchasing carbon credits, the price of energy will increase. Tax-payers and consumers would pay the costs, and the Italian GDP will decrease.
“In its first phase of operation, more permits to pollute were printed than actual pollution. The price of carbon has collapsed from 33€ to 0.20€ per tonne, creating no incentive to reduce emissions”
“Some countries (such as the UK) set tough quotas on emissions, and others set lax targets, creating a wealth transfer mechanism, subsidizing emitters in states which were making little effort by taxing states with more stringent allocations”
“The ETS has established a web of politically powerful interest groups, massive economic distortions and hidden industrial subsidies”
55Source: www.globalwarming.org
“According to the IPCC, to have an impact on global warming, anthropogenic emissions should be cut by 60-80% compared to 1990 level. If all the countries joining Kyoto reach their target, global emissions will decrease by less than 3%”
“President Bush is to begin setting a new worldwide goal for cutting CO2 emissions after 2012 and to help developing nations pay for the changes that would be needed.”
“Weaknesses in Mandatory Emission - Reduction Obligations – are apparent. Development of new technologies and other voluntary measures are the preferred means. Western countries should not participate in any talks toward a global agreement that do not include polluters from China, India, Brazil and the developing world”
56Source: www.globalwarming.org
European Think TankBrussels, BelgiumFocus on Public Policies To Promote Saving and Investment in the Private SectorNovember 2005 Report on “The Cost of the Kyoto Protocol”
United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, SpainOverview1. Cost of Emissions Allowances: passed on to consumers in higher energy prices and
higher prices for goods and services
Electricity and Gas Prices
2010: Kyoto Target 2020: 60% below 2000 levels by 2050
57
2010 2020 2010 2020
Italy 13% 14% 44% 54%
UK 35% 34% 46% 57%
Spain 23% 27% 42% 51%
Germany 31% 32% 30% 39%
Average 26% 27% 41% 50%
Electricity Natural Gas
Source: www.iccfglobal.org
2. Output and Employment Losses
3. Consumption and Residential Fixed Investment (GDP) due to loss of disposable income
4. The economy’s production rate will decline due to reduction in energy use
5. Labor Productivity decline due to less efficient factors ofproduction
58
-4
-3.5
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0Germany UK Spain Italy Germany UK Spain Italy
Rea
l G
DP -
% D
iffer
ence
fro
m B
asel
ine
Kyoto Target 60% Below 2000 Levels by 2050
2010 2020
Source: www.iccfglobal.org
Impact on Energy Consumption
Domestic SectorConsumers will cut energy consumption due to drastically higher prices
Short term: Reduce energy consumptionLong term: Replace inefficient appliances with more efficient appliances
Industry SectorReduce energy consumption through process changesReplace energy-consuming capital with more efficient capitalProduction of energy intensive goods would move to non-participating countries
59Source: www.iccfglobal.org
Impact on Energy Consumption
Power SectorThe cost of carbon permits would lead to large increases in the delivered price of electricity Coal use would decline as with higher prices, encouraging the substitution of natural gas and renewablesNatural gas fired power generation would struggle to keep electricity prices down
Transportation SectorDemand for coal would be hardest hit with its highest carbon contentDemand for petroleum would decline slightly due to limited substitution optionsNatural gas would increase but in time decline as CO2 limitations targets tightenDemand for renewables would increase
60Source: www.iccfglobal.org
61
International Non-Treaty AgreementParticipants: Australia, Canada, India, Japan, the People's Republic of China, South Korea, and the United States
Announced July 28, 2005 at an Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum Meeting
Launched January 12, 2006
Member countries account for more than 50% of the world’sGHG emissions
Energy consumption
GDP
PopulationMember counties’ set individual goals for GHG emission reductionsNo mandatory enforcement mechanism
AustraliaAustralia ChinaChina IndiaIndia JapanJapan
Republic Republic of Koreaof Korea USAUSA
(2007)(2007)
CanadaCanada
Source: www.wikipedia.com
Mission StatementAccelerate the development and deployment of clean energy technologiesVoluntarily participate to advance clean development and climate objectivesEnhance cooperation to meet both increased energy needs, air pollution, energy security, and greenhouse gas intensitiesComplement but not replace the Kyoto Protocol
Task Forces Aluminum Buildings and Appliances Cement Cleaner Fossil Energy Coal Mining Power Generation and Transmission Renewable Energy and Distributed Generation Steel
62Source: sdp.gov
CriticismUS President George W. Bush: “a new results-oriented partnership …..allows our
nations to develop and accelerate deployment of cleaner, more efficient energy technologies to meet national pollution reduction, energy security and climate change concerns in ways that reduce poverty and promote economic development.“
Australian Prime Minister John Howard: “this pact is fair and effective”
Worldwide Fund for Nature: "a deal on climate change that doesn't limit pollution is the same as a peace plan that allows guns to be fired“
Coalition Of National Environment Groups (AP6 countries): Challenged their governments to make the AP6 meaningful by agreeing to mandatory targets, creating financial mechanisms with incentives, and to create an action plan to overcome the key barriers to technology transfer.
U.S. Senator John McCain: “the partnership amounted to nothing more than a nice little public relations ploy“
The Economist: “the partnership is a "patent fig-leaf for the refusal of America and Australia to ratify Kyoto"
63Source: www.wikipedia.com
Thank You For Your Indulgence
Audience Questions