ETHNIC DIVERSITY AND THE WELFARE STATE

A North American Perspective

Keith G. Banting

Social Mobility and Life Chances Forum

14 November 2005

A Progressive’s Dilemma?

• Are immigration and multiculturalism policies eroding the welfare state?

• Diversity versus Redistribution? • Crowding out/Corroding/Collateral damage/Misdiagnosis

• Recognition versus Redistribution?• Multiculturalism polices exacerbate tensions

The U.S. ExperienceAn Emerging Master Narrative

• Race and the U.S. welfare state

• The politics of social programs

• Backlash against multiculturalism policies

• Public attitudes to race and social redistribution

Politics of Social Policy in the U.S.

• Race, Recognition and Redistribution

• The Politics of Social Security in the 1930s• The War on Poverty in the 1960s• Ending Welfare as We Knew it in the 1990s• Backlash against multiculturalism policies

Public Attitudes and Social Capital

• Gilens: • Why Americans hate welfare

• Alberto Alesina et al• race and trust

• Robert Putnam and Social Capital• bridging and bonding• hunkering down

From Exceptionalism to Master Narrative

• Race and U.S. exceptionalism– A distinctive American pattern?– Myrdal, “An American Dilemma” (1944)

• The U.S. as the quintessential case– U.S. experience as evidence of a universal pattern?– Glazer, “Exceptional No Longer” (1998)

Counter Narratives ICanada

Ethnicity and Trust in Canada

Ethnicity and Support for Redistribution in Canada

• Virtually no relationship

• Sensitivity of minorities, not majorities

• No evidence of majority turning away

Explaining Canadian Experience

• Canadian multicultural identity• Legitimation of difference

• Immigrant economic integration• Traditional pattern of economic integration• Emerging problems in the 1980s and 1990s

• Immigrant political integration• High levels of naturalization• Identity convergence over time

Low-income among Immigrants1980-2000

Political IntegrationSense of pride in Canada

-0.2 -0.15 -0.1 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2

Aboriginal

French

Southern European

Eastern European

S. Asian/ Middle East

East Asian

Caribbean/African

Marginal effect of ethnicity on probability of x=1, for Pride in Canada

No Controls+ Immigrant Status...+ Age...+ Religion...+ Neighborhood

significantsignificant significantsignificant

Citizenship Ceremonies in Toronto

In Vancouver and Halifax

Counter Narratives IIImmigration and Social Spending

• Immigration and social spending across OECD

• Social spending as % of GDP• Size of foreign-born population • Levels versus change over time

Foreign-Born Population and Social Spending, 2000

AUL

AUTBEL

CAN

DEN

FIN

FRA

FRG

GRE

ICE

IRE

ITA

JPN

NET

NOR

NZL

PORSPN

SWE

UKM

USA

10

15

20

25

30

2000 S

ocia

l W

elfare

Spendin

g, %

GD

P

0 5 10 15 20 252000 Migrant Stock, % Population

Change in Foreign-Born Population and Change in Social Spending

OECD Countries, 1970-1998

Diversity versus Redistribution?

• Race and redistribution: – tension in some societies (US)

• Immigration:– Level of foreign born population not an issue– Pace of change does seem to mater

Counter Narratives IIIRecognition and Redistribution

• A trade-off between recognition and redistribution?

• Historical pattern: attempts to assimilate immigrants

• Multicultural policies of last decades of 2oth century

• Controversy over multiculturalism policies

Multiculturalism Policies

(1) formal affirmation of multiculturalism(2) multiculturalism in school curriculum(3) ethnic representation in the media(4) exemptions from dress-codes, etc.(5) allowing dual citizenship(6) funding of ethnic groups(7) funding of bilingual education(8) affirmative action

Multiculturalism Policies and Change in Social Spending, 1980-2000

AUS

AUT

BEL

CAN

DEN

FIN

FRA

GER

IRL ITA

NET

NOR

SPN

SWE

UK

US

02

46

8

MC

P S

core

-20 0 20 40 60Change in Social Spending as a % of GDP (linear)

Rsq = 0.04

MCP Score and Change in Social Spending as a % of GDP (linear)

Multiculturalism Policies and Change in Redistribution, 1980-2000

AUS

AUT

BEL

CAN

DEN

FIN

FRA

GER

IRLITA

NET

NOR

SPN

SWE

UK

US

02

46

8

MC

P S

core

-20 -10 0 10 20Change in Redistribution (linear)

Rsq = 0.02

MCP Score and Change in Redistribution (linear)

BETWEEN IMMIGRATION AND REDISTRIBUTION

• We need to understand the role of:

• The nature of the immigration flow• Economic integration of immigrants• Political integration of immigrants• Structure of the welfare state

CONCLUDING REFLECTIONS

• Challenging ideas of universal tradeoffs

• The danger of master narratives

• The importance of counter narrative

Thank You