ETHANOL ETHANOL Alexandre Betinardi Strapasson Director of the Department of Sugar Cane and...
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Transcript of ETHANOL ETHANOL Alexandre Betinardi Strapasson Director of the Department of Sugar Cane and...
ETHANOLETHANOL
Alexandre Betinardi Strapasson
Director of the Department of Sugar Cane and Agroenergy
Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply
VISÕES SOBRE COMBUSTÍVEIS VEICULARESVISÕES SOBRE COMBUSTÍVEIS VEICULARES
- World preponderance of Otto and Diesel cycles engines, developed for liquid fuels
- The fleet renewal is a gradual process and not immediate
- New technologies such as hybrid vehicles and electric engines constitute a promise for the future, but their costs are still elevated in the short term.
- Large scale hydrogen or electricity use as vehicle fuels will still take time and requires an energy source for its production, not always renewable.
- Fuel production by the thermochemical process from biomass, hydrocellulosic hydrolysis and diesel from sugarcane may become competitive in the future.
- Birth of a new agricultural and energy paradigm: Agroenergy
FORECASTS ON VEHICLES FUELS
POTENTIAL FOR BIOMASS PRODUCTIONPOTENTIAL FOR BIOMASS PRODUCTION
30O
30O
0O
30O
30O
0O
ETHANOLETHANOL
1532: Martim Afonso de Sousa 1532: Martim Afonso de Sousa introduces sugar cane in Brazil introduces sugar cane in Brazil
1925: First ethanol powered vehicle 1925: First ethanol powered vehicle tested in Braziltested in Brazil
1979: First commercial ethanol moved 1979: First commercial ethanol moved vehicle in Brazilvehicle in Brazil
2003:2003:Flex fuelFlex fuel motors are motors are
launchedlaunched
MAKING A NEW MARKET FOR SUGAR CANEMAKING A NEW MARKET FOR SUGAR CANE
BLENDING ETHANOL TO GASOLINE:
Current mix in Brazil (B25): 25% ethanol + 75% gasoline.
USING FLEX FUEL CARS
Flex-Fuel Engine allows the use of ethanol or gasoline in any concentration of these fuels.
- Current manufacturers: VW,GM, Ford, Fiat, Renault, Peugeot, Citroen, Honda and
Toyota.
-Current fleet: 5.6 million vehicles.
The consumption of ethanol is already
higher than gasoline in Brazil.
SUGAR AND ETHANOL FORECASTS IN BRAZIL
CROP SEASON: April 2008 to March 2009
SUGAR AND ETHANOL FORECASTS IN BRAZIL
CROP SEASON: April 2008 to March 2009
Sugar cane production for sugar and ethanol: Min. 558.1 million tonnes (11.3%).Max. 579.8 million tonnes (15.6%).
Sugar cane destination: 42.8% for sugar. 57.2% for ethanol.
Sugar production: Min. 33.9 million tonnes (+8.3%).Max. 35.2 million tonnes (+12.4%).
Ethanol production: Min. 26.5 billion liters (+15%).Max. 27.5 billion liters (+19.5%).
Source: MAPA/CONAB – May 2008
MAIN REASONS RELATED TO THE RECENT GLOBAL INCREASES IN FOOD PRICES:
- Increase in the global demand for food, mainly because of the increase in the per capita income and the rural exodus in some developing countries
- Record oil prices
- US Dollar devaluation
- Increase in prices of fertilizers
- Migration of investments to the agricultural commodities market
- Constraints in distribution logistics and food exporting barriers in some countries
- Weather problems, probably aggravated by global warming
BIOFUELS AND FOOD PRODUCTIONBIOFUELS AND FOOD PRODUCTION
OTHER ASPECTS:
- There is no relation between ethanol production in Brazil and the international increase in food prices
- Ethanol form corn in the US might have caused a limited impact in some products
- High prices of food incentive the food production because of better income for the farmers
CHALLENGES TO INCREASE THE GLOBAL SUPPLY OF FOOD:
- Reduce urgently both agricultural subsidies and trade barriers for the food products (Doha Round), the main causes of agricultural harm in developing countries.
- Give incentives to technology transfer and better agricultural practices to developing countries, supported by international agencies, organizations and banks.
- Implementation of the Agenda of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol
BIOFUELS AND FOOD PRODUCTIONBIOFUELS AND FOOD PRODUCTION
Source: Conab / MAPA - * Estimates (May, 2008)
GRAINS: Cotton, peanuts, rice, oat, barley, beans, sunflower, castor beans, corn, soybean and sorghum.
4746474944
383737393638
68,3
81,1 78,4 82,4
100,3
142,1
120,8131,7
113,9123,2
57,9
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EVOLUTION OF GRAIN PRODUCTION IN BRAZIL
Planted Area (million tons per ha) + 24% = 1,3% per year
Production (million tons)
+ 145,5% = 8,5% per year
Productivity: + 98% = 5,4% per year
POTENTIAL AREAS FOR SUGAR CANE EXPANSIONPOTENTIAL AREAS FOR SUGAR CANE EXPANSION
Million ha %
Pasture 172,3 20,2%Crops (yearly and perennial), except sugar cane
68,9 8,1%
Sugar cane* 7,8 0,9%
Woods and Forests 99,8 11,7%Others areas (Amazon Forest, cities, protected areas etc)
502,2 59,0%
Total 851 100,0%Source: IBGE, Census 2006* CONAB, 2008
CURRENT USEArea
Plant in construction or in project
Current plant
AMAZON
PANTANAL
Sugar Cane Fields
WHERE DOES BRAZIL PRODUCE SUGAR CANE?WHERE DOES BRAZIL PRODUCE SUGAR CANE?
Source: EMBRAPA / MAPA
Sugar Cane Agroecological Zoning
-24 .8720 -24.8700 -24.8680 -24 .8660 -24 .8640 -24 .8620
-50.2660
-50.2650
-50.2640
-50.2630
1000.00
1400.00
1800.00
2200.00
2600.00
3000.00
3400.00
3800.00
4200.00
4600.00
5000.00
5400.00
Project underdevelopment by the Brazilian Government that will be published in July 2008.
It will permit the establishment of more effective public policies in order to assure sugar cane sustainability in a long term scenario.
Main considered maps in the zoning: soil, climate, topography, land use and preserved areas.
THANK YOU!THANK YOU!
OBRIGADO!OBRIGADO!
Alexandre Betinardi Strapasson
[email protected] Telephone: +55 61 32182147
Fax: +55 61 33220337