Ethane Exports & Ethylene Markets Summit

THE ONLY SHALE EVENT FOCUSING ON THE IMPACT OF ETHANE EXPORT ON SUPPLY, DEMAND, FUTURE PROJECTS AND THE DERIVATIVE AND CO-STREAM MARKETS IN THE US

Examining How U.S. Ethane Exports Will Interact With The Growing Domestic Ethylene & Derivatives Production IndustryTo Forecast Supply, Demand & Pricing Dynamics For U.S. Ethane, Ethylene & Polyethylene

Including Key Insights And Debate On:

October 28-29, 2014 | Houston | Texas

Peter Kaestner Vice President - Feedstocks, Polymer & Cracker Segment Reliance

Preview Of 20+ Leading Industry Speakers, Including:

M Follow us @UnconventOilGas

www.ethane-exports-ethylene-markets-2014.com

Register By FridayAugust 22, 2014

SAVE $400

• EXPORT CAPACITY: Providing an accurate assessment of the volume of ethane in the US, the demand and readiness of global markets and the US ability to export

• IMPACT OF ETHANE EXPORT PROJECTS ON US CRACKER ECONOMICS: Analysing the impact of a mass export policy on US cracking projects and the future of the derivatives market at home.

• ETHANE PRODUCTION & CAPACITY: Outlining the volume of ethane produced, the infrastructure in place to move it, and the industry’s capacity to consume it to determine pricing and rejection levels.

• THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR ETHANE: Analysing the current and potential global markets for ethane and how this will impact on supply/demand and future pricing and build in the US.

• PROJECT UPDATES & THE SECOND WAVE: Examining the delays on current projects with realistic assessments on their completion times and strategic advice on the feasibility and logistics presenting a clear business case for the second wave of crackers.

• THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR DERIVATIVES: Examining the global derivative market to determine pricing, production capacity and export policy.

• ETHANE IMPACT ON CO-STREAMS: Investigating the developments in on-purpose production to analyse how the shale gas boom will affect pricing and market opportunity for butadiene and propylene.

Craig Barry Olefins Business Director Dow

John DeGood VP NGL Marketing LoneStar

Mathew George Chief Manager (Petrochemical Exports) Indian Oil

Rob Clark Project Director. U.S. Megaprojects Sasol

Bernie DeFreitas Marketing Director Osterman & Company

Matthew Curry Director of Business Development Range Resources

Kelly Knopp VP & GM, NGL & Olefins Williams

Organized by

Register By FridayAugust 22, 2014

SAVE $400

www.ethane-exports-ethylene-markets-2014.com (1) 800 721 3915 [email protected]

US ethane supply has massively increased

in the wake of the shale gas revolution.

With prices dropping, and domestic

transportation infrastructure coming

online, this critical feedstock has

become more domestically abundant

than ever before. This has triggered

billion dollar investment projects by

petrochemical companies in expanded

ethylene production and lighter feedstocks,

switching from naphtha to ethane, to

capture the superior economics and

improved pricing margins.

This initiative investigates the impact

that exporting U.S. ethane will have on

feedstock prices, future cracker projects

and the entire ethylene and derivatives

value chain. The opportunity presented

by these ethane markets, production

forecasts, the timelines for expansion,

global derivative markets and supply

infrastructure costs are all key factors

when locating the greatest export

advantage and mitigating investment risk.

The 2nd Annual Ethane Exports & Ethylene

Markets Summit, taking place in Houston

on October 28-29, will provide exclusive

insights into these issues, uncovering

the true potential for ethane exports,

the drivers for on-going cracker project

economics, the business case for

increased infrastructure investment and

technology solutions for maximizing

profitability.

Day 1 will focus on the impact of ethane

export on pricing & economics by

examining the market potential in Europe,

Asia & Canada alongside a basin-by-

basin analysis of the major plays in the

US to assess total production levels

and the effectiveness of the midstream

infrastructure.

Day 2 will provide an update on cracker

projects, the feasibility of the next phase,

the issues surrounding labor and permits,

and then examine new ethylene production

technologies and assess the capacity of

the derivative market home and abroad

to absorb the supply. Finally consideration

is applied to the co-product stream, their

future production techniques and the

impact on supply and pricing.

JW Marriott Houston - Liberty Hall5150 Westheimer Road

Houston, TX 77056

Tel: 713-961-1500Web: http://www.marriott.com/hotels/travel/houjw-jw-marriott-houston/

Venue Information:

Very interesting speakers who know their subject well. Good variety of delegates. Well organised Foster Wheeler

REASONS TO ATTEND

• EXPORT CAPACITY: Providing an accurate assessment of the volume of ethane in the US, the demand and readiness of global markets and the US ability to export.

• IMPACT OF ETHANE EXPORT PROJECTS ON US CRACKER ECONOMICS: Analysing the impact of a mass export policy on US cracking projects and the future of the derivatives market at home.

• ETHANE PRODUCTION & CAPACITY: Outlining the volume of ethane produced, the infrastructure in place to move it, and the industry’s capacity to consume it to determine pricing and rejection levels.

• THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR ETHANE: Analyzing the current and potential global markets for ethane and how this will impact on supply/demand and future pricing and build in the US.

• PROJECT UPDATES & THE SECOND WAVE: Examining the delays on current projects with realistic assessments on their completion times and strategic advice on the feasibility and logistics presenting a clear business case for the second wave of crackers.

• THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR DERIVATIVES: Examining the global derivative market to determine pricing, production capacity and export policy.

• ETHANE IMPACT ON CO-STREAMS: Investigating the developments in on-purpose production to analyse how the shale gas boom will affect pricing and market opportunity for butadiene and propylene.

UNDERSTANDING HOW INCREASED U.S. ETHANE EXPORTS WILL IMPACT FEEDSTOCK PRICING & PROJECT ECONOMICS FOR U.S. ETHYLENE & DERIVATIVES PLANTS

Day 1Tuesday October 28, 2014

8.45 Chair’s Opening Remarks

Steve Woodward, SVP, AnteroKEYNOTE: U.S. ETHANE EXPORTS & CRACKER PROJECT ECONOMICS

09.00 Evaluating The Overall Impact That The Projected Rise In U.S. Ethane Exports Will Have On Feedstock Prices For Domestic Cracker Plants & How This Will Impact Project Economics

•Outliningourabilitytoexportagainstglobaldemandandregionalcapabilitytoimporttounderstandtheexportpotentialofethane

•Revealingfuturepricingforsupplyanditsimpactonthefeasibilityforthecosteffectivenessofcrackersupply

•Illustratingtheimpactofseveralstrongexportlinksonthesecondwaveofcrackerprojectsandtheirpotentialredundancy

•Investigatingthelimitationstoethaneexportprojectstoassessthecontinuedneedforcrackingprojectstocapitalizeoproductiongrowth

•Examiningtheextenttowhichpoliticalfactorssuchasunemploymentincreasesthelikelihoodforregulationtoadvancefuturecrackerprojects

Kelly Knopp, VP & GM, NGL & Olefins, Williams

9.30 Question & Answer Session

ETHANE EXPORT INFRASTRUCTURE

09.40 Providing An Update On Ethane Export Infrastructure Projects In The U.S. To Determine Their Readiness To Provide Competition With Cracker Projects For Domestic Supplies

•Projectingthevolumesofethanethatplannedexportterminalswillbeabletoshiptoquantifytheirimpactonsupplyanddemanddynamics

•Explainingwhichglobalmarketsterminaloperatorsareoptimizingtheirinfrastructuretoserve

•ProvidingviewsfromcompaniesconstructingexportinfrastructureonhowtheythinkitwillimpactethanepricingintheU.S.

•AnalyzingwhatfactorswilldeterminewhethertheGulfCoastorPennsylvaniaemergesasthekeyexporthubforU.S.ethane


MARKETS FOR U.S. ETHANE EXPORTSEVALUATING MARKETS FOR U.S. ETHANE IN EUROPE, ASIA & CANADA TO DETERMINE TO THE EXTENT TO

WHICH THEY COULD DRIVE UP FEEDSTOCK PRICES FOR U.S. PETROCHEMICALS COMPANIES

U.S. [ EUROPE ETHANE EXPORT MARKETS

10.20 Quantifying Demand For Ethane Imports In Europe To Determine Whether It Will Emerge As A Viable Market For U.S. Exports & How This Would Impact Feedstock Pricing For Domestic Petrochemicals Companies

•IdentifyingexistingEuropeanethanecrackercapacitytoquantifycurrentlevelsofdemandforimports

•EvaluatingwhatplansEuropeanpetrochemicalscompanieshaveforconvertingnaphthacrackerstoethanecrackersandwhatincrementaldemandthiswouldyield

•ProjectingongoingEuropeanpricingdifferentialsforethaneandnaphthatoaccuratelyforecastthecompetivenessofU.S.ethaneintheEuropeanmarket

•IdentifyinglogisticalinfrastructureforEuropeanimportsofethane,includingterminals,tariffs,andshippingtimes,todetermineattractivenessforEuropeanpetrochemicalcompanies

•EstimatingwhatimpactariseinexportstoEuropewouldhaveonfeedstockpricesforplannedU.S.basedcrackerprojects

Craig Barry, Olefins Business Director, Dow


11.00 Morning Refreshments In Exhibition Showcase Area

U.S. [ ASIA ETHANE EXPORT MARKETS

11.30 Scrutinizing Asian Ethane Demand, Import Infrastructure & Trade Policies To Forecast The Extent To Which It Can Displace Domestic Cracker Plants As The Primary Market For U.S. Supplies

•IdentifyingtheregionalinfrastructurereadinessofAsianmarketstoreceiveU.S.ethaneandlocatingareasforfurtherinvestment

•Outliningexistingregionalpetrochemicalethylenecrackingcapacityandannouncedprojectstoforecastdemand

•DetermininghowdifferingtradepolicieswillimpactUSmarketaccessandoverallarbitrageforregionalexport

•InvestigatingtheconceivabledevelopmentofAsianmarketstorealizetheirownnaturalgaspotentialandanalyzeitsimpactonthebusinesscaseforUSethaneexports

11.30 PRESENTATION A: SOUTH EAST ASIA

11.50 PRESENTATION B: INDIA

Peter Kaestner, Vice President - Feedstocks, Polymer & Cracker Segment, Reliance Mathew George ,Chief Manager (Petrochemical Exports), Indian Oil

12.10 PRESENTATION C: MIDDLE EAST

Ihab Yahia,. Marketing Director, Ethydco


U.S. [ CANADA ETHANE EXPORT MARKETS

12.40 Analyzing The Current Supply & Demand Trends For Ethane In Canada To Determine How Far Canadian Ethylene Plants Will Compete With U.S. Projects For Feedstocks

•RevealingCanadianethyleneproductioncapacityexpansionstoquantifythemarketopportunityforUSethaneexports

•ProvidingaprojectionofCanadianethaneproductionoverthenextfivetotenyearstoidentifyhowthiswillimpactsupplyopportunitiesfromtheU.S.

•EvaluatingmidstreambottlenecksbetweentheUSandCanadatoidentifywhatconstraintstheywouldplaceoncross-bordertrade

•AnalyzingCanadianethaneexportterminalandlogisticscapacitytoweighupitspotentialtoimpactandcompetewithUSethaneexports

Manav Lahoti, Commercial Director - US Olefins, Dow


13.20 Networking Lunch In Exhibition Showcase Area

EXPORT LOGISTICS AND COSTS

14.20 Deconstructing The Logistical Costs For Ethane Exports To Determine Whether They Make Economic Sense Compared With Easier To Access Domestic Markets

•Projectingthenumberofshipsavailableandtheassociatedshippingcoststocomprehensivelycalculateoperationalcostsforethaneexports

•DetailinghowtheskilledlaborshortageinNorthAmericacouldimpacttheviabilityofethaneexportprojects

•ContrastingshippingcostsbetweenAsiaandEuropetodeterminehowthiswilldeterminewhichrepresentstheoptimalmarketsforU.S.ethaneexports


U.S. ETHANE SUPPLY DYNAMICSQUANTIFYING CURRENT ETHANE SUPPLY VOLUMES &

REJECTION RATES IN THE U.S. TO FORECAST ETHYLENE FEEDSTOCK PRICING DYNAMICS IN THE CONTEXT OF

INCREASED ETHANE EXPORTS

U.S. ETHANE SUPPLY DYNAMICS

15.00 Providing A Play By Play Forecast Of Ethane Production In The Key U.S. Shale Plays ...Will It Be Sufficient To Provide Low Cost Feedstocks For Domestic Cracker Projects In The Context Of A Rise In Exports?

•Forecastingproductionvolumesoverthenext10yearsanditsimpactonavailablesupply

•Detailingregionalethanecontentinproductiontodeterminewhichplayswillhavethebiggestimpactonsupplydynamics

•Reviewinggeographicalpricingdifferentialsbetweenplaysandhowthisimpactstheregionaleconomicsforcrackerorexportinvestment

•Outliningthecurrenttakeawayinfrastructureprojectsoverdifferentplaystorevealopportunitiesformidstreaminvestment

Matthew Curry, Director of Business Development, Range Resources


16.00 Afternoon Refreshments

ETHANE REJECTION

16.30 Quantifying The Volumes Of Ethane That Are Currently Being Rejected To Determine Whether They Can Be Used To Meet Export Demand Without Reducing Feedstock Availability For Domestic Crackers

•Assessingthelevelofethanebeingrejecteddailyalignedwiththeestimatedrejectionlevelsoverthenextyearifdemandisnotincreased.

•Illustratingthecurrentlimitsonrejectionandtheregulationsthatmaycomeintoforcethatwillchangethis.

•Evaluatinghowfarnewdemandfrominternationalmarketswouldhelpreducecurrentrejectionrates

•Investigatingtheextenttowhichinvestmentinmid-streaminfrastructurecanhelpreducevolumesrejectedtohelpmaintainlowprice

•ExaminingthepotentialforhigherBTUlevelsinUSpipingincomparisonwithEuropeanregulationsandanalyzinghowthiscouldmonetizesurplusethane

John DeGood, VP NGL Marketing, LoneStar


ETHANE PIPELINE & MIDSTREAM INFRASTRUCTUREEXAMINING ADVANCES IN ESTABLISHING PIPELINE

INFRASTRUCTURE TO SUPPORT SUPPLY TO ETHYLENE CRACKERS & ETHANE EXPORT TERMINALS

MIDSTREAM INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENTS

17.10 Evaluating The Existing Capacity Of Ethane Pipeline Infrastructure To Serve Domestic Markets & Export Terminals To Determine What Progress Is Being Made In Overcoming Midstream Bottlenecks

•Investigatingcurrentinfrastructureinconjunctionwithprojectsplannedandtheirexpectedcompletiondatestoforecastmidstreamcapacity

•Revealingtheimpactofinfrastructureofsupplylimitationsonthecommercialviabilityforexportandcrackerprojects

•Outliningregionalpipelineprojectsandtheirimpactonlocalpricingtotargetprofitableinvestmentinmidstreaminfrastructure

•Illustratingthecriticalimportanceofdevelopingmidstreaminfrastructureforthecontinuingcommercialviabilityofcrackers,considerexportandexploreoptionsaroundputtingethaneintoBTU


17.50 Chair’s Closing Remarks

17.50-19.00 Networking Drinks In Exhibition Showcase Area


Great Knowledge on growth - view of the future Dow

08.50 Chair’s Opening Remarks

ETHANE CRACKER PROJECT UPDATESPROVIDING UPDATES ON THE TIMESCALES & VOLUMES

OF PROPOSED ETHANE CRACKER PROJECTS & EXAMINING SOLUTIONS FOR OVERCOMING LABOR,

PERMITTING & REGULATORY BOTTLENECKS

U.S. CRACKER PROJECT UPDATES

09.00 Providing Updates On Announced Ethane Cracker Projects To Assess When They Will Come On Line & Whether There Is A Business Case For Another Round Of Build Out

•Breakingdowncurrentprojecttimelinestocompareinitiallyprojectedcompletiondatesagainstactualcompletiondates

•Highlightingtheadditionalcostsandrisksofprojectsrunningovertimeandhowthiswillimpactthebusinesscaseforthenextgenerationofprojects

•AssessinghowprojectsrunningovertimecanaffectindustryconfidenceinthesecondwaveofbuildoutandthesubsequentimpactonthederivativemarketintheU.S.

•Investigatingtheoptionsaroundjointventureinvestmentandtaxrepaymentschemestospeedupprojectcompletiontime


SKILLED LABOR SHORTAGES: IMPACT ON PROJECT COSTS

09.40 Projecting The Impact That Skilled Labor Shortages Will Have On Ethane Cracker Project Costs & How This Will Factor Into Overall Project Economics

•Comparingthetotalskilledworkforceavailablewiththetotalrequiredworkforceforthecurrentwaveofprojects...willtherebeenoughtogoaround?

•Identifyingthekeyskilledshortagestodeterminewhichareprofessionsareprovingtobethebiggestproblemareas

•Quantifyingtheimpactoflaborshortagesonoverallprojectcosts

•Evaluatingthepotentialforinflatedlaborcostsduetohighdemandandthesubsequentriskof‘laborauctions’

Rob Clark,Project Director. U.S. Megaprojects, Sasol


SKILLED LABOR SHORTAGES: IMPACT ON TIMELINES

10.20 Evaluating Innovative Solutions For Overcoming Labor Shortages To Ensure That Ethane Cracker Projects Are Completed On Time

•LookingatoptionsaroundforeignlabortodeterminewhatisavailableandthepotentialforworkingVISAstospeeduptheprocess

•Examiningthepossibilityofoutsourcingpartsofthebuildprocesstothirdparties

•Investigatingstrategiesforattractingskilledlaborthroughfasttracktrainingprograms

•Anengineeringperspective:whatarethegreatestengineering,procurementandconstructionissuesexpectedbyprojectoperatorsandhowaretheyplanningtoovercomethem?


11.00 Morning refreshments In Exhibition Showcase Area

ETHYLENE PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY

11.30 Reviewing New Ethylene Production Technologies And How They Can Contribute To Keeping Down The Costs Of Current Cracker Projects

•Assessingwhattechnologiesarecomingontothemarkettomakeincrementalcostsavingsintheethanetoethyleneconversionprocess

•Evaluatingtherolethattechnologycanplayinoptimizinghighvalueco-productstreamstohelpoptimizeprojecteconomics

•Identifyingstrategiesforreducingprocurementleadtimesontechnologiesandmaterialsrequiredforcrackerprojects

•Examiningwhatstepscanbetakentocustomizeyourplanttomatchcurrenttrendsinproductdemand

Len Dolhert, Partner, Energy Stream Partners


PERMITTING

12.10 Examining Strategies For Streamlining The Permitting Procedure For Building & Operating Cracker Facilities To Ensure Projects Are Completed To Time

•Explainingthekeypermittingchallengesethanecrackerprojectdevelopershavefacedtodateandhowtheywereovercome

•Highlightingbestpracticeforstreamliningthepermittingprocesstominimizeprojectdelay

•Examiningstrategiesincludingcommunityliaisonplans,PRandlobbyingatfederal,stateandmunicipallevel

•Exploringthepotentialforacollaboratedapproachtopermitauthorizationtoallowseparateprojectstocollectivelygetapproved

James Cutler, CEO, Appalachian Resins


12.50 Networking Lunch In Exhibition Showcase Area

EMISSIONS REGULATIONS & ETHANE CRACKER PROJECTS

13.50 Assessing The Impact That Forthcoming Greenhouse Gas Emission Regulations For The Petrochemicals Industry Could Have On Project Economics For Ethane Crackers

•Providingdetailsonhowforthcominggreenhousegasemissionregulationscouldaffectethanecrackerprojects

•Examiningwhatconstraintstheywillplaceontheconstructionandoperationofethanecrackersandhowthiswillaffectprojectcosts

•Explainingwhatkindofextrapermittingrequirementsmaybeincurredandhowthiswouldaffectthetimelinesforbuildingethanecrackers

•Providinganwhattechnologieswillbeavailabletohelpcomplywithemissionsregulations


ETHYLENE & POLYETHYLENE MARKETSQUANTIFYING DOMESTIC & INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

FOR U.S. ETHYLENE & DERIVATIVES TO DETERMINE WHETHER THERE IS SUFFICIENT CAPACITY TO ABSORB

INCREASING SUPPLIES

POLYETHYLENE CAPACITY & DEMAND

14.30 Evaluating Whether There Is Sufficient Polyethylene Capacity & Demand To Consume Combined Ethylene Production From Planned U.S. Crackers

•QuantifyinghowmuchthepolyethylenemarketwillhavetogrowtoabsorbprojectedquantitiesofethylenetobeproducedintheU.S.

•ProvidinganupdateondevelopmentsinnewpolyethyleneplantsbeingbuiltintheU.S.andwhatincrementaldemandtheywillcreate

•EvaluatingstrategiesforattractingforeigninvestmentinpolyethyleneplantsintheU.S.toboostethylenedemand

•Examiningopportunitiesforpolyethyleneexportsandidentifyingtheoptimalinternationallocations

Bernie DeFreitas, Marketing Director, Osterman & Company


15.10 Afternoon Refreshments In Exhibition Showcase Area

MERCHANT ETHYLENE MARKETS

15.40 Tracking Current Demand And Pricing Dynamics For Merchant Ethylene To Determine What Opportunities The Merchant Market Offers For Excess Production Not Being Absorbed By Derivatives Capacity

•Quantifyingthecurrentmerchantmarketforethylenetodeterminehowmuchexcesscapacityitcanabsorbwhilstproducerswaitforderivativesmarketstoincrease

•Forecastingpricingtrendsinmerchantethylene...isthemarketheadedforacrash?

•Determiningwhatimpacttheincreasedtrendtowardspreviousbuyersofmerchantethylenebuildingtheirownproductionplantswillhaveonthemarket

•Evaluatingtheshorttermbusinesscaseforincreaseddirectexportsofethyleneintheabsenceofsufficientderivativesmarkets

Bill Dunn, Partner, Energy Stream Partners


ON-PURPOSE PROPYLENE & ON-PURPOSE BUTADIENEEVALUATING THE IMPACT OF THE MOVE TOWARDS

ETHANE FEEDSTOCKS ON PROPYLENE & BUTADIENE PRODUCTION & ASSESSING STRATEGIES FOR MITIGATING

THE KNOCK-ON EFFECTS

ON PURPOSE PROPYLENE OPPORTUNITIES

16.20 Evaluating How The Shift To Ethane Feedstocks For Ethylene Production Will Impact Propylene Supply To Assess The Business Case For On Purpose Production

•EvaluatingthecurrentpropylenesupplygapintheU.S,todeterminethemarketopportunityforonpurposesupply

•LayingoutthetimingsforPDHprojectstodeterminetheextenttowhichcapacitywillbemetandtheopportunityforfurtheronpurposeunits

•ProvidinganoverviewofthedifferenttechnologiesavailableinconjunctionandoutliningtheircoststoquantifyROI

•Givingcomparisonwithsimilaroperationsabroadtodeterminewhattransferablelessonscanbelearnt


BUTADIENE: AVAILABILITY & NEW TECHNOLOGY

17.00 Evaluating How Ethylene Producers’ Switch To Ethane Feedstocks Is Affecting Butadiene Supply & How Advances In On-Purpose Production Could Mitigate Current Shortages

•QuantifyingthebutadieneshortageissueintheUStodeterminewhetheritissufficientlylargetojustifyinvestmentinon-purposebutadiene

•Evaluatingtrendsinproductmarketsforbutadienesuchasrubbertyrestodeterminewhethertheywillprovideenoughlong-termdemandtojustifyinvestmentinon-purposebutadiene

•Examiningnewtechnologiesforon-purposebutadienetodeterminewhichareemergingasacost-effectivesolution

•Detailinghowthelatestresearchonon-purposebutadieneproductionisbeingtranslatedintocommercialoperations


17.40 End Of Congress

Day 2Wednesday October 29, 2014

PROVIDING UPDATES ON THE TIMESCALES & VOLUMES OF PROPOSED ETHANE CRACKER PROJECTS IN THE U.S. & DETERMINING WHETHER THERE IS SUFFICIENT ETHYLENE & DERIVATIVES MARKETS TO JUSTIFY THE INVESTMENTS BEING MADE


Speakers weren’t promotional. They fully talked about their view of the market Bentek Energy

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Ethane Exports & Ethylene Markets Summit

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Transcript of Ethane Exports & Ethylene Markets Summit