ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 › documents › research ›...

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Research Contributor Raghu Ramachandran Head of Insurance Asset Channel raghu.ramachandran@ spglobal.com ETFs in Insurance General Accounts 2020 INTRODUCTION In our first report in 2015, we used historical trends to project that insurance companies would double their use of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in five years. Now five years later, usage of ETFs in insurance general accounts has indeed doubled since 2015. In the one-year period ending Dec. 31, 2019, insurance companies increased their ETF assets under management (AUM) by 16% to reach USD 31.2 billion. We saw companies increase their use of Equity and Fixed Income ETFs. While the overall use of ETFs increased, we did observe some parts of the industry that had been active in using ETFs pull away. Although the use of Fixed Income ETFs increased, the use of Systematic Valuation (SV) declined. 1 OVERVIEW As of year-end 2019, U.S. insurance companies had USD 31.2 billion invested in ETFs. This represents a tiny fraction of the USD 4.4 trillion of ETF AUM and an even smaller portion of the USD 6.7 trillion in admitted assets of U.S. insurance companies. Exhibit 1 shows the use of ETFs by U.S. insurance companies over the past 16 years. Exhibit 1: ETF AUM Growth Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes. 1 This report is presented as of year-end 2019. As the markets have changed dramatically in the Q1 2020, we will publish a report analyzing the Q1 2020 transactions once the data is processed. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ETF AUM (USD Billions) ETF AUM Register to receive our latest research, education, and commentary at on.spdji.com/SignUp.

Transcript of ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 › documents › research ›...

Page 1: ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 › documents › research › research-etfs-in-ins… · Small Companies Large Companies Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Research

Contributor

Raghu Ramachandran

Head of Insurance Asset

Channel

raghu.ramachandran@

spglobal.com

ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 INTRODUCTION

In our first report in 2015, we used historical trends to project that insurance

companies would double their use of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in five

years. Now five years later, usage of ETFs in insurance general accounts

has indeed doubled since 2015. In the one-year period ending Dec. 31,

2019, insurance companies increased their ETF assets under management

(AUM) by 16% to reach USD 31.2 billion. We saw companies increase

their use of Equity and Fixed Income ETFs. While the overall use of ETFs

increased, we did observe some parts of the industry that had been active

in using ETFs pull away. Although the use of Fixed Income ETFs

increased, the use of Systematic Valuation (SV) declined.1

OVERVIEW

As of year-end 2019, U.S. insurance companies had USD 31.2 billion

invested in ETFs. This represents a tiny fraction of the USD 4.4 trillion of

ETF AUM and an even smaller portion of the USD 6.7 trillion in admitted

assets of U.S. insurance companies. Exhibit 1 shows the use of ETFs by

U.S. insurance companies over the past 16 years.

Exhibit 1: ETF AUM Growth

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

1 This report is presented as of year-end 2019. As the markets have changed dramatically in the Q1 2020, we will publish a report analyzing

the Q1 2020 transactions once the data is processed.

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Register to receive our latest research, education, and commentary at on.spdji.com/SignUp.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 2

After declining slightly in 2018, insurance ETF usage grew by 16% in 2019.

Indeed, the growth in usage had consistently remained in the mid-teens for

the past decade, as seen by the compound annual growth rate (CAGR)

over 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year periods (see Exhibit 2). This roughly equates to

the doubling of ETF AUM every 4.5 years.

Exhibit 2: CAGR of ETF AUM

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

Unlike ETF AUM, the amount of ETF shares held by insurance companies

declined—albeit by only 0.6%—for the first time since 2007. However, as

Exhibit 3 shows, the number of ETF shares used by insurance companies

has grown substantially over the past 16 years.

Exhibit 3: ETF Share Growth

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

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After declining slightly in 2018, insurance ETF usage grew by 16% in 2019. Unlike ETF AUM, the amount of ETF shares held by insurance companies declined by 0.6%.

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RESEARCH | Insurance 3

The growth in ETF usage exceeded the growth in admitted assets, even

though admitted assets in insurance general accounts grew by 6.8%. Over

the past 16 years, ETF usage growth has significantly exceeded admitted

asset growth (see Exhibit 4).

Exhibit 4: Historical Growth of Admitted Assets and ETF AUM

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

We used a linear regression to model the growth of ETF AUM and shares

in insurance general accounts.2 These models accurately fit the historical

growth of ETFs by insurance companies (see Exhibits 5 and 6).

Exhibit 5: Linear Regression of ETF AUM

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

2 See Appendix 2.

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The growth in ETF usage exceeded the growth in admitted assets… …even though admitted assets in insurance general accounts grew by 6.8%.

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RESEARCH | Insurance 4

Exhibit 6: Actual and Modeled ETF Shares

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

We used these regression models to estimate the trended growth of ETFs.

If insurance companies continue to invest according to trend, the use of

ETFs by insurance companies could once again almost double in five

years—using both AUM and share trends. This is substantially faster than

the expected growth of admitted assets (see Exhibit 7).

Exhibit 7: Projected Growth of Admitted Assets, ETF AUM, and ETF Shares

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence and Cerulli Associates. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

The number of ETFs used by the insurance industry increased to 479 in

2019. While the number of insurance companies using ETFs declined, the

number of insurance companies extant also declined, making the

percentage of insurance companies using ETFs increase slightly to 35%

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To model the growth of ETF AUM and shares held by insurance companies, we used linear regressions. If insurance companies continue to invest according to trend, the use of ETFs by insurance companies could once again almost double in five years.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 5

(see Exhibit 8). Overall, ETFs represented only 0.46% of total admitted

assets.

Exhibit 8: ETF Usage

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

ANALYSIS BY SIZE, OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE, AND

COMPANY TYPE

In this section, we analyzed the use of ETFs by different groupings of

insurance companies. In particular, we looked at whether size, ownership

structure, or types of insurance underwritten affect the use of ETFs.3

Mega insurance companies owned most of the assets belonging to

insurance companies, but only held about one-third of the insurance ETF

holdings (see Exhibit 9).

Exhibit 9: ETF AUM and Admitted Assets by Company Size

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

3 See Appendix 1.1 for definitions of size and ownership structure.

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Overall, ETFs represented only 0.46% of total admitted assets. Mega insurance companies owned most of the admitted assets… …but only held about one-third of the insurance ETF holdings.

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RESEARCH | Insurance 6

In 2018, we observed Large companies exit ETFs. While ETF AUM

increased for companies of all sizes in 2019 (see Exhibit 10), Large and

Small companies continued to sell ETF shares (see Exhibit 11).

Exhibit 10: ETF AUM by Company Size

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

Exhibit 11: CAGR of ETF AUM and Shares by Company Size

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

Interestingly, Small companies sold ETFs broadly in 2019, while Large

companies added Fixed Income ETFs (dark blue) and sold Equity ETFs

(yellow) (see Exhibit 12).

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 7

Exhibit 12: Change in ETF Shares Held by Small and Large Companies

Small Companies Large Companies

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

While Large companies have historically had the largest number of ETFs in

the industry, in 2019, Mega companies surpassed them in terms of AUM.

However, as a percentage of admitted assets, the use of ETFs remained

inversely proportional to size (see Exhibit 13).

Exhibit 13: ETF AUM and ETFs as a Percentage of Admitted Assets by Company Size

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

In terms of company type, Life companies had the most admitted assets,

but P&C companies had the most ETFs (see Exhibit 14).

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Interestingly, Small companies sold broadly in 2019, while Large companies added Fixed Income ETFs and sold Equity ETFs. While Large companies have historically had the largest number of ETFs in the industry… …Mega companies surpassed them in terms of AUM in 2019.

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RESEARCH | Insurance 8

Exhibit 14: ETF AUM and Admitted Assets by Company Type

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

ETF AUM held by P&C and Health companies increased in 2019, while

AUM for Life companies was relatively flat (see Exhibit 15).

Exhibit 15: ETF AUM by Company Type

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

However, Life companies sold a little over 16% of their ETF shares in 2019.

Health companies had the greatest increase in their usage of ETFs—both

in terms of AUM and shares (see Exhibit 16).

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In terms of company type, Life companies had the most admitted assets, but P&C companies had the most ETFs. ETF AUM held by P&C and Health companies increased in 2019… …while AUM for Life companies was relatively flat.

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Exhibit 16: CAGR for ETF AUM and Shares by Company Type

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

But the ETF sales by Life companies were not across the board. Indeed,

these companies even added Equity ETFs (dark blue). The sales of non-

core ETFs (yellow) accounted for almost all of the sales by Life companies

(see Exhibit 17).

Exhibit 17: Change in ETF Shares held by Life Companies

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

Not surprisingly, Life companies had the least amount of ETFs as a

percentage of admitted assets (see Exhibit 18).

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Health companies had the greatest increase in their usage of ETFs—both in terms of AUM and shares. Life companies sold a little over 16% of their ETF shares in 2019. However, the sales of non-core ETFs accounted for almost all of the sales by Life companies.

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RESEARCH | Insurance 10

Exhibit 18: ETF AUM and ETFs as a Percentage of Admitted Assets by Company Size

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

Stock companies had the most admitted assets and the most ETFs (see

Exhibit 19).

Exhibit 19: ETF AUM and Admitted Assets by Ownership Structure

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart are provided for illustrative purposes.

After declining in 2018, ETF AUM held by Stock companies was relatively

flat in 2019—while AUM held by Mutual and Other companies increased

(see Exhibit 20).

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Not surprisingly, Life companies had the least amount of ETFs as a percentage of admitted assets. Stock companies had the most admitted assets and the most ETFs.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 11

Exhibit 20: ETF AUM by Ownership Structure

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

This is because Stock companies sold ETFs, while Mutual and Other

companies added to their holdings (see Exhibit 21).

Exhibit 21: CAGR of ETF AUM and Shares by Ownership Structure

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

As a result, Stock companies had the largest share of insurance ETF AUM,

but the lowest as a percentage of admitted assets (see Exhibit 22).

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RESEARCH | Insurance 12

Exhibit 22: ETF AUM and ETFs as a Percentage of Admitted Assets by Ownership Structure

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

ANALYSIS BY BUSINESS FOCUS

To see if the use of ETFs varied by the type of underwriting done by an

insurance company, we analyzed ETF investments by business focus.

For P&C companies, the use of ETFs is roughly in proportion with admitted

assets (see Exhibit 23).

Exhibit 23: ETF AUM and Admitted Assets by P&C Business Focus

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

While Personal and Commercial companies increased their use of ETFs in

2019, Reinsurance companies greatly reduced their holdings, and the

amount held by Other P&C types is de minimis (see Exhibit 24).

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As a result, Stock companies had the largest share of insurance ETF AUM, but the lowest as a percentage of admitted assets. For P&C companies, the use of ETFs is roughly in proportion with admitted assets.

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RESEARCH | Insurance 13

Exhibit 24: ETF AUM by P&C Business Focus

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

Even though the ETF AUM in Commercial and Personal companies

increased by roughly the same percentage (23% and 22%, respectively),

the number of ETF shares held by Personal lines writers was relatively flat,

while the number of shares held by Commercial writers increased 11% (see

Exhibit 25).

Exhibit 25: CAGR of ETF AUM and Share by P&C Business Focus

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

Despite this increase, ETF AUM as a percentage of admitted assets was

the lowest for Commercial writers (see Exhibit 26).

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While Personal and Commercial companies increased their use of ETFs, Reinsurance companies greatly reduced their holdings. Even though the ETF AUM in Commercial and Personal companies increased by roughly the same percentage… …the number of shares held by Personal companies was relatively flat, while Commercial companies increased them by 11%.

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RESEARCH | Insurance 14

Exhibit 26: ETF AUM and ETFs as a Percentage of Admitted Assets by P&C Business Focus

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

As shown in Exhibit 18, Life companies held less than half as many ETFs

as P&C companies, and the number of companies (both in absolute terms

and as a percentage of the total) was smaller for Life insurance. Thus, the

average holding per company was almost twice that of P&C companies.

While Annuity writers had the bulk of the admitted assets for Life

companies, the use of ETFs was more diversified (see Exhibit 27).

Exhibit 27: ETF AUM and Admitted Assets by Life Business Focus

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

After increasing the ETF usage by seven times from 2008 to 2016, Life &

Health companies have halved it in the past three years. Annuity

companies have kept their ETF allocation roughly the same for the past two

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Despite this increase, ETF AUM as a percentage of admitted assets was the lowest for Commercial writers. While Annuity writers had the bulk of the admitted assets for Life companies, the use of ETFs was more diversified.

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RESEARCH | Insurance 15

years. However, Life companies and, more recently, Life & Annuity

companies have increased their ETF allocation (see Exhibit 28).

Exhibit 28: ETF AUM by Life Business Focus

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

As a percentage of admitted assets, Life companies had the most allocated

to ETFs (see Exhibit 29).

Exhibit 29: ETF AUM and ETFs as a Percentage of Admitted Assets by Life Business Focus

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

In Health, the use of ETFs and the growth in ETF usage was nearly all in

Comprehensive Health companies (see Exhibit 30).

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2018

2019

ET

F A

UM

(U

SD

Bill

ions)

Annuity

Life & Annuity

Life

Life & Health

Other Life

0.00%

0.25%

0.50%

0.75%

0

1

2

3

Annuity Life & Annuity Life Life & Health Other Life

ET

F A

UM

as %

of A

dm

itte

d A

ssets

ET

F A

UM

(U

SD

Bill

ions)

ETF AUM ETF AUM as a Percent of Admitted Assets

After increasing the ETF usage by seven times from 2008 to 2016, Life & Health companies have halved it in the past three years. Life companies and, more recently, Life & Annuity companies have increased their ETF allocation. As a percentage of admitted assets, Life companies had the most allocated to ETFs.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 16

Exhibit 30: ETF AUM by Health Business Focus

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

In 2019, the growth in ETF shares was primarily in Fixed Income ETFs (see

Exhibit 31).

Exhibit 31: Change in ETF AUM and Shares for Health Companies

ETF AUM ETF Shares

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

0

1

2

3

4

5

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

ET

F A

UM

(U

SD

Bill

ions)

Comprehensive Health

Dental/Vision

Medicare/Medicaid

Other Health

In Health, the use of ETFs and the growth in ETF usage was nearly all in Comprehensive Health companies. In 2019, the growth in ETF shares for Health companies was primarily in Fixed Income ETFs.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 17

ANALYSIS BY ASSET CLASS

In 2019, the amount of ETF assets held by insurance companies increased

for Equity and Fixed Income ETFs. Equity ETF AUM increased by 20%,

while Fixed Income ETF AUM increased by 13% (see Exhibit 32).4

Exhibit 32: ETF AUM by Asset Class

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

As shown in Exhibit 33, overall ETF shares held by insurance companies

only declined because of Other asset classes.

Exhibit 33: Change in ETF Shares by Asset Class

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

4 See Appendix 1.2 for definitions of asset classes.

0

5

10

15

20

25

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

ET

F A

UM

(U

SD

Bill

ions)

Equity Fixed Income Other

In 2019, Equity ETF AUM increased by 20%, while Fixed Income ETFs increased by 13%. Overall ETF shares held by insurance companies only declined because of Other asset classes.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 18

Over the past 10 years, insurance companies have increased the use of

Fixed Income ETFs and, as a percentage of the total, held more Fixed

Income ETFs than the overall U.S. ETF market (see Exhibit 34).

Exhibit 34: Insurance and U.S. Market ETF AUM by Asset Class

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

In terms of company type, Health companies held the most Fixed Income

ETFs, and P&C companies held the least (see Exhibit 35).

Exhibit 35: Asset Allocation by Company Type

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

After significantly increasing Fixed Income ETF usage in 2016 and 2017,

Life companies—especially Large Life companies—have reduced their

Fixed Income allocation over the past two years (see Exhibit 36).

Equity

Fixed Income

Other

Insurance

Equity

Fixed Income

Other

U.S. Market

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

P&C Life Health

Allo

catio

n

Equity Fixed Income Other

Insurance companies held more Fixed Income ETFs than the overall U.S. ETF market. In terms of company type, Health companies held the most Fixed Income ETFs, and P&C companies held the least.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 19

Exhibit 36: Life Company ETF AUM by Asset Class

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

For P&C companies, Commercial companies held a higher percentage of

Fixed Income ETFs, as Personal companies reduced their Fixed Income

ETF allocation over the past two years (see Exhibit 37).

Exhibit 37: Fixed Income ETF AUM by P&C Business Focus

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

In Life insurance, even though companies focused on Life insurance and

companies focused on Annuity had roughly the same ETF AUM, Annuity

writers had a higher allocation to Fixed Income ETFs (see Exhibit 38).

0

1

2

3

4

5

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

ET

F A

UM

(U

SD

Bill

ions)

Equity Fixed Income Other

0

1

2

3

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

ET

F A

UM

(U

SD

Bill

ions)

Commercial Personal

After increasing Fixed Income ETF AUM in 2016 and 2017, Life companies reduced it over the past two years. Commercial companies held a higher percentage of Fixed Income ETFs than Personal companies.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 20

Exhibit 38: ETF AUM by Life Business Focus

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

In terms of size, Mega, Large, and Medium companies had about the same

allocation, but Small companies had half as much allocated to Fixed

Income ETFs (see Exhibit 39).

Exhibit 39: Asset Allocation by Size

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

In terms of ownership structure, Stock companies had higher Fixed Income

ETF allocation, as they increased Fixed Income ETFs and sold Equity

ETFs. Mutual companies had less Fixed Income, but they increased both

Fixed Income and Equity holdings in ETFs. Other companies increased

Equity holdings and greatly reduced Fixed Income holdings and thus had

the lowest Fixed Income allocation (see Exhibit 40).

Fixed Income

EquityOther

Life

Equity

Fixed Income

Other

Annuity

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Small Medium Large Mega

Allo

catio

n

Equity Fixed Income Other

Annuity companies had a higher allocation to Fixed Income ETFs than Life companies. Small companies had almost half the allocation to Fixed Income ETFs as Mega, Large, and Medium companies.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 21

Exhibit 40: Asset Allocation by Ownership Structure

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

Analysis of Equity ETFs

Most of the Equity ETF allocation were split between Blend and Large Cap

companies, with Mid Cap and Small Cap having similar allocations. The

insurance distribution broadly replicated the overall U.S. ETF market (see

Exhibit 41).

Exhibit 41: Insurance and U.S. Market Equity ETF AUM by Market Capitalization

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

The allocation varied little in terms of size, company type or ownership

structure. However, the allocation varied vastly by business focus (see

Exhibits 42 and 43).

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Stock Mutual Other

Allo

catio

n

Equity Fixed Income Other

Blend

Small CapMid Cap

Large Cap

Insurance

Blend

Small CapMid Cap

Large Cap

U.S. Market

Stock had a higher Fixed Income allocation, as they increased Fixed Income ETFs and sold Equity ETFs. Most of the Equity ETF allocation were split between Blend and Large Cap companies.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 22

Exhibit 42: Equity Market Capitalization Allocation by Size, Ownership

Structure, and Company Type

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

Exhibit 43: Equity Market Capitalization Allocation by Select Business Focus

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

In terms of Growth and Value, most insurance ETF assets were Blend (see

Exhibit 44).

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Small Medium Large Mega Stock Mutual Other P&C Life Health

Allo

catio

n

Blend Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Annuity Life Commercial Personal

Allo

catio

n

Blend Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap

The allocation varied little in terms of size, company type or ownership structure. However, the allocation varied vastly by business focus.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 23

Exhibit 44: Insurance ETF AUM by Style

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

The allocation to Sector ETFs by insurance companies was lower than that

of the overall U.S. ETF market (see Exhibit 45).

Exhibit 45: Insurance and U.S. Market ETF AUM by Sector Status

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

Further, insurance companies have been reducing their holdings in sector-

specific ETFs (see Exhibit 46).

0

5

10

15

20

25

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

ET

F A

UM

(U

SD

Bill

ions)

Blend Value Growth

Sector

Not Sector

Insurance

Sector

Not Sector

U.S. Market

In terms of Growth and Value, most insurance ETF assets were Blend. The allocation to Sector ETFs by insurance companies was lower than that of the overall U.S. ETF market.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 24

Exhibit 46: CAGR of ETF AUM and Shares by Sector Status

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

Interestingly, the allocation of sector ETFs by insurance companies varied

markedly from the U.S. market sector allocation, which in turn varied from

the sector allocation of the large-cap market—as represented by the S&P

500® (see Exhibit 47).

Exhibit 47: Sector Allocation of Insurance and U.S. Markets

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Sector Not Sector

CA

GR

ETF AUM

1-Year

3-Year

5-Year

10-Year

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Sector Not Sector

CA

GR

ETF Shares

1-Year

3-Year

5-Year

10-Year

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

CommunicationServices

ConsumerDiscretionary

ConsumerStaples

Energy

Financials

Health CareIndustrials

Materials

Real Estate

InformationTechnology

Utilities

U.S. ETF Market

Insurance

S&P 500

Insurance companies have been reducing their holdings in sector-specific ETFs. Insurance sector allocation varied markedly from the U.S. market, which in turn varied from the S&P 500.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 25

Analysis of Fixed Income ETFs

While the U.S. Fixed Income ETF market was broadly diversified, the

insurance market focused mainly on Corporate ETFs (see Exhibit 48).

Exhibit 48: Insurance and U.S. Market ETF AUM by Bond Category

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

Insurance companies moved significantly into Fixed Income ETFs roughly

in line with regulatory changes (see Exhibit 49).

Exhibit 49: Fixed Income ETF AUM by Bond Type

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

While companies added to Corporate ETFs in the past one-year period,

they retrenched from Treasury ETFs (see Exhibit 50)

Broad Market

Corporate

TreasuryOther

Insurance

Broad Market

Corporate

Treasury

Other

U.S. Market

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

ET

F A

UM

(U

SD

Bill

ions)

Broad Market Corporate Treasury Other

While the U.S. Fixed Income ETF market was broadly diversified, the insurance market focused mainly on Corporate ETFs. Insurance companies moved significantly into Fixed Income ETFs roughly in line with regulatory changes.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 26

Exhibit 50: CAGR of ETF AUM and Shares by Fixed Income Credit

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

Life companies invested more in Corporate ETFs, while Health companies

preferred Broad Market ETFs (see Exhibit 51).

Exhibit 51: Bond Type Allocation by Company Type

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

Differences in allocation persisted across business lines, with Annuity

companies investing almost exclusively in Corporate ETFs. In the P&C

sector, Commercial writers had broader Fixed Income ETF allocations

relative to Personal carriers (see Exhibit 52).

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

BroadMarket

Corporate Treasury Other

CA

GR

ETF AUM

1-Year

3-Year

5-Year

10-Year

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

BroadMarket

Corporate Treasury Other

CA

GR

ETF Shares

1-Year

3-Year

5-Year

10-Year

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

P&C Life Health

Allo

catio

n

Broad Market Corporate Treasury Other

While insurance companies added to Corporate ETFs in the past one-year period, they retrenched from Treasury ETFs. Life companies invested more in Corporate ETFs, while Health companies preferred Broad Market ETFs.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 27

Exhibit 52: Bond Type Allocation by Life and P&C Business Focuses

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

Corporate allocation increased with company size, and Broad Market

allocation decreased (see Exhibit 53).

Exhibit 53: Bond Type Allocation by Size

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

Stock companies had the least allocation to Broad Market ETFs and the

highest allocation to Corporate ETFs (see Exhibit 54).

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Annuity Life Commercial Personal

Allo

catio

n

Broad Market Corporate Treasury Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Small Medium Large Mega

Allo

catio

n

Broad Market Corporate Treasury Other

Differences in allocation persisted across business lines, with Annuity companies investing almost exclusively in Corporate ETFs. Corporate allocation increased with company size, and Broad Market allocation decreased.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 28

Exhibit 54: Bond Type Allocation by Ownership Structure

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

Although insurance companies invested mostly in Investment Grade ETFs,

they had a higher proportion of High Yield ETFs, relative to the U.S. ETF

Market (see Exhibit 55).

Exhibit 55: Insurance and U.S. Market ETF AUM by Credit Quality

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

Insurance companies continued to increase their allocation to High Yield

and Investment Grade ETFs, while pulling back from Blend ETFs (see

Exhibit 56).

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Stock Mutual Other

Allo

catio

n

Broad Market Corporate Treasury Other

Blend

Investment Grade

High Yield

Insurance

Blend

Investment Grade

High Yield

U.S. Market

Stock companies had the least allocation to Broad Market ETFs and the highest allocation to Corporate ETFs. Although insurance companies invested mostly in Investment Grade ETFs… …they had a higher proportion of High Yield ETFs than the U.S. Market.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 29

Exhibit 56: Fixed Income ETF AUM by Credit Quality

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

Over the past few years, the growth in High Yield ETFs has been faster

than Investment Grade ETFs (see Exhibit 57).

Exhibit 57: CAGR of Fixed Income ETF AUM and Shares by Credit Quality

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

Stock companies had a larger allocation to High Yield ETFs than any other

type of insurance company. The allocation to High Yield ETFs also

increased with the size of the company (see Exhibit 58).

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

ET

F A

UM

(U

SD

Bill

ions)

Blend Investment Grade High Yield

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Blend InvestmentGrade

High Yield

CA

GR

ETF AUM

1-Year

3-Year

5-Year

10-Year-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Blend InvestmentGrade

High Yield

CA

GR

ETF Shares

1-Year

3-Year

5-Year

10-Year

Insurance companies continued to increase their allocation to High Yield and Investment Grade ETFs, while pulling back from Blend ETFs. Over the past few years, the growth in High Yield ETFs has been faster than Investment Grade ETFs.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 30

Exhibit 58: Credit Quality Allocation by Ownership Structure and Company Size

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

P&C companies had the highest High Yield allocation, with Personal writers

having almost 50% of their Fixed Income ETFs in High Yield (see Exhibit

59).

Exhibit 59: Credit Quality Allocation by Company Type and Life and P&C Business Focuses

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

In terms of maturity, insurance companies mostly invested in Blend ETFs

(see Exhibit 60).

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Stock Mutual Other Small Medium Large Mega

Allo

catio

n

Blend Investment Grade High Yield

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Health

Life

P&

C

An

nuity

Life

Com

merc

ial

Pe

rsonal

Allo

catio

n

Blend Investment Grade High Yield

Stock companies had a larger allocation to High Yield ETFs than any other type of insurance company. P&C companies had the highest High Yield allocation.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 31

Exhibit 60: Fixed Income ETF AUM by Maturity

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

However, in recent years, companies have begun to diversify into more

specific maturity buckets (see Exhibit 61).

Exhibit 61: CAGR of Fixed Income ETF AUM and Shares by Maturity

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

Mutual companies used more Ultra Short and Short ETFs than any other

ownership structure, while Mega companies rarely used anything other

than Blend ETFs (see Exhibit 62).

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

ET

F A

UM

(U

SD

Bill

ions)

BlendShortIntermediateLongSpecific YearUltra Short

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

Ble

nd

Ultra

Short

Sh

ort

Inte

rme

dia

te

Long

Sp

ecific

Ye

ar

CA

GR

ETF AUM

1-Year

3-Year

5-Year

10-Year

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

Ble

nd

Ultra

Short

Sh

ort

Inte

rme

dia

te

Long

Sp

ecific

Ye

ar

CA

GR

ETF Shares

1-Year

3-Year

5-Year

10-Year

In terms of maturity, insurance companies mostly invested in Blend ETFs… …however, in recent years, companies have begun to diversify into more specific maturity buckets.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 32

Exhibit 62: Fixed Income Maturity Allocation by Ownership Structure and Company Size

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

Life insurance companies tended to stick to Blend ETFs relative to other

company types, but Life writers did have significantly higher allocation to

Long duration ETFs (see Exhibit 63).

Exhibit 63: Fixed Income Maturity Allocation by Company Type and Life and P&C Business Focuses

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Stock Mutual Other Small Medium Large Mega

Allo

catio

n

Blend Ultra Short Short Intermediate Long Specific Year

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

P&

C

Life

Health

An

nuity

Life

Com

merc

ial

Pe

rsonal

Allo

catio

n

Blend Ultra Short Short Intermediate Long Specific Year

Mutual companies used more Ultra Short and Short ETFs than any other ownership structure… …while Mega companies rarely used anything other than Blend ETFs. Life insurance companies tended to stick to Blend ETFs relative to other company types.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 33

Systematic Valuation

Systematic valuation (SV) is a book-value-like accounting treatment that

has the potential to reduce income volatility in statutory filings. Of the USD

8.5 billion in Fixed Income ETFs, insurance companies designated 19% as

SV (see Exhibit 64).

Exhibit 64: SV Designation for Fixed Income ETFs

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

In 2019, SV designation decreased from 2017 and 2018 (see Exhibit 65).

Exhibit 65: Historical SV Designation for Fixed Income ETFs

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

SV

Not SV

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2017

2018

2019

SV

Desig

natio

n

Of the USD 8.5 billion in Fixed Income ETFs, insurance companies designated 19% as SV. In 2019, SV designation decreased from 2017 and 2018.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 34

Life companies used more SV ETFs than Health or P&C companies.

Medium and Mega companies were the biggest SV users. Stock

companies designated funds as SV more often than other company types

(see Exhibit 66).

Exhibit 66: SV Designation for Fixed Income ETFs by Company Type, Ownership Structure, and Size

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

ETFs with a specific year maturity were the only maturity type to have a

majority of the holdings designated as SV. Investment Grade ETFs had a

higher use of SV than High Yield and Blend ETFs. Finally, Broad Market

ETFs had the least SV designation, while Other ETFs had the most (see

Exhibit 67).

Exhibit 67: SV Designation Allocation by Maturity, Credit Quality, and Bond Type

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

P&C Life Health Stock Mutual Other Small Medium Large Mega

Allo

catio

n

SV Not SV

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Ble

nd

Ultra

Short

Sh

ort

Inte

rme

dia

te

Long

Sp

ecific

Ye

ar

Ble

nd

Hig

h Y

ield

Investm

ent

Gra

de

Bro

ad M

ark

et

Corp

ora

te

Tre

asu

ry

Oth

er

Allo

catio

n

SV Not SV

Life companies used more SV ETFs than Health or P&C companies. Absent the decline in Smart Beta ETFs, the use of ETFs by insurance companies grew on ETF AUM and share bases.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 35

ANALYSIS OF SMART BETA ETFS

The majority of ETF investments by U.S. insurance companies were

Traditional Beta ETFs. The insurance industry allocated to different beta

types in a similar manner to the overall U.S. ETF market. While about

12.4% of the U.S. market invested in Smart Beta ETFs, insurance

companies only allocated 10.7% of AUM to Smart Beta strategies (see

Exhibit 68).

Exhibit 68: Insurance and U.S. Market ETF AUM by Beta Type

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

Smart Beta usage varied little by size—with Small and Mega companies

being slightly larger users. However, by company type, P&C companies

used more Smart Beta ETFs, and by ownership structure, Other companies

used more Smart Beta ETFs (see Exhibit 69).

Exhibit 69: Beta Type Allocation by Size, Company Type, and Ownership Structure

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

Traditional Beta

Smart Beta

Active Beta

Insurance

Traditional Beta

Smart Beta

Active Beta Leveraged/Inverse

U.S. Market

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Small Medium Large Mega P&C Life Health Stock Mutual Other

Allo

catio

n

Traditional Beta Smart Beta Active Beta Leveraged/Inverse Proprietary Model

The majority of ETF investments by U.S. insurance companies were Traditional Beta ETFs. The insurance industry allocated to different beta types in a similar manner to the overall U.S. ETF market. By company type and ownership structure, P&C and Other companies used more Smart Beta ETFs, respectively.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 36

In a reversal of 2018, companies added alternate beta types, while selling

Traditional Beta ETFs (see Exhibit 70).

Exhibit 70: CAGR of ETF AUM and Shares by Beta Type

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

Within Smart Beta ETFs, insurance companies favored Dividend ETFs, with

AUM almost doubling in 2019. Quality ETFs had a material increase in

allocation over the past two years (see Exhibit 71).

Exhibit 71: ETF AUM by Smart Beta Type

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Tra

ditio

nal B

eta

Sm

art

Beta

Active

Beta

Levera

ged/Invers

e

Pro

prie

tary

Model

CA

GR

ETF AUM1-Year

3-Year

5-Year

10-Year

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Tra

ditio

nal B

eta

Sm

art

Beta

Active

Levera

ged/Invers

e

Pro

prie

tary

Model

CA

GR

ETF Shares 1-Year

3-Year

5-Year

10-Year

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

ET

F A

UM

(U

SD

Mill

ions)

Dividend

Multi Factor

Low Volatility

Quality

Equal Weighted

Growth/Value

Thematic

Other

In a reversal of 2018, companies added alternate beta types, while selling Traditional Beta ETFs. Within Smart Beta ETFs, insurance companies favored Dividend ETFs, with AUM almost doubling in 2019.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 37

MISCELLANEOUS ANALYSIS

Insurance companies invested mostly in Domestic ETFs; this was truer for

Fixed Income ETFs than Equity ETFs (see Exhibit 72).

Exhibit 72: Insurance Equity and Fixed Income ETF AUM by Region

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

However, over the past three years, the growth rate of International ETFs

has been triple that of Domestic ETFs (see Exhibit 73).

Exhibit 73: Insurance ETF AUM by Region

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

While the topic of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) as a

controlling factor in investment decisions is widely discussed, neither the

U.S. ETF market nor insurance companies using ETFs have greatly

Domestic

International

Global

Equity

Domestic

InternationalGlobal

Fixed Income

0

5

10

15

20

25

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

ET

F A

UM

(U

SD

Bill

ions)

Domestic International Global

Insurance companies invested mostly in Domestic ETFs… …this was truer for Fixed Income ETFs than Equity ETFs. Over the past three years, the growth rate of International ETFs has been triple that of Domestic ETFs.

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RESEARCH | Insurance 38

adopted ESG ETFs. The overall U.S. ETF market only had 0.45%

allocated to ESG ETFs. In the insurance space, seven insurance

companies had about USD 100 million invested in ESG ETFs—

representing 0.32% of all insurance ETF usage and a negligible percentage

of admitted assets.

Looking at the geographical distribution of insurance companies using

ETFs, companies located in Illinois, New York, and Texas were the leading

users of ETFs (see Exhibit 74). However, relative to the amount of

admitted assets, companies in New York had a lower allocation to ETFs

(see Exhibit 75).

Exhibit 74: Insurance ETF AUM by Domicile

Fewer ETFs More ETFs Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

While ESG is a widely discussed topic, the U.S. ETF market and insurance companies only allocated 0.45% and 0.32%, respectively, in ESG ETFs. Companies located in Illinois, New York, and Texas were the leading users of ETFs.

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RESEARCH | Insurance 39

Exhibit 75: ETF Overweight and Underweight Relative to Admitted Assets by Domicile

Underweight Overweight Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

However, companies in New York increased their ETF allocation by nearly

5.5 times in the past five years (see Exhibit 76).

Exhibit 76: ETF Usage by New York-Domiciled Companies

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

The geographic distribution of companies using ETFs varied by both type of

insurance company (see Exhibit 77) and by asset class (see Exhibit 78).

0

1

2

3

4

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

ET

F A

UM

(U

SD

Bill

ions)

Relative to the amount of admitted assets, companies in New York had a lower allocation to ETFs. However, companies in New York increased their ETF allocation by nearly 5.5 times in the past five years.

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 40

Exhibit 77: Geographic Distribution of ETFs by Company Type

COMPANY TYPE

GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF ETFS

P&C

Fewer ETFs More ETFs

Life

Fewer ETFs More ETFs

Health

Fewer ETFs More ETFs Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Table is provided for illustrative purposes.

Geographic distribution of ETF investments varied by company type.

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RESEARCH | Insurance 41

Exhibit 74: Geographic Distribution of ETFs by Asset Class

ASSET CLASS

GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF ETFS

Equity

Fewer ETFs More ETFs

Fixed Income

Fewer ETFs More ETFs

Other

Fewer ETFs More ETFs Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Table is provided for illustrative purposes.

Geographic distribution varied by asset class.

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RESEARCH | Insurance 42

APPENDIX 1: METHODOLOGY

The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) requires all U.S. insurance companies to

file an annual statement with state regulators. This filing includes a detailed holdings list of all

securities held by insurance companies. S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) compiles this data

from the NAIC and makes it available in a usable format. We use this database to extract all insurance

ETF holdings, both current and historical. In addition, Frist Bridge, a CFRA company, which is an ETF

data and analytics company, provides a list of U.S. ETFs, as well as characteristics of each ETF—such

as asset class, stock strategy, bond credit quality, etc. We combine First Bridge ETF classifications

with SPGMI statutory filing data to gain insight into how insurance companies use ETFs.

Appendix 1.1: S&P Global Market Intelligence Data

For all U.S. insurance companies, we used NAIC data as compiled by SPGMI. U.S. insurance

companies filed the data with the NAIC at the end of February 2020. SPGMI retrieved the data and

loaded it into its database. The completeness of the database depended on the timeliness of SPGMI

receiving the data from the NAIC and the amount of quality control SPGMI performs. To get timely yet

complete information, we retrieved the data for this analysis on April 13, 2020.

SPGMI classifies companies in various ways. For companies that are members of a group, we

classified all companies the same way as a group. For example, if a group contained individual

companies of various ownership structures (Stock, Reciprocal Exchange, Lloyd’s Syndicate, etc.), the

group would be classified as a Stock company. For this analysis, we assigned the ownership structure

of the parent organization to all the subsidiaries. We did a similar assignment across all the features in

this report.

In 2019, the SPGMI database contained 7,568 individual entities. Of these, 1,530 had no reported

assets for the period from 2004 to 2019; therefore, we removed these companies from the analysis,

leaving us with 6,038 entities. Most of these (3,849 or 64%) belonged to one of 625 insurance groups,

which left 2,189 stand-alone insurance entities. For this analysis, we referred to “companies” as the

combination of the 625 groups and 2,189 individual entities, giving us 2,814 companies in our analysis

(see Exhibit 79).

Exhibit 79: Companies and Groups

TYPE OF COMPANY

INDIVIDUAL COMPANIES

STAND-ALONE COMPANIES

COMPANIES PART OF A GROUP

NUMBER OF GROUPS

GROUPS PLUS STAND-ALONE COMPANIES

P&C 3,432 1,329 2,103 327 1,656

Life 1,069 403 666 145 548

Health 1,537 457 1,080 153 610

Total 6,038 2,189 3,849 625 2,814

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Table is provided for illustrative purposes.

It is possible that some companies have not filed their financials, or that the NAIC has not reported

these to SPGMI, or that data had not made it into the SPGMI database by April 13, 2020. To test for

completeness of the data, we compared the reported assets for the 6,038 companies in 2018 versus

2019. Of the 6,038 entities, 163 had assets in 2018 but not in 2019. However, these only represented

0.33% of total 2018 admitted assets (see Exhibit 80). A further breakdown by company type revealed

that the largest number of late filers as a percentage of admitted assets were Health companies.

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RESEARCH | Insurance 43

Exhibit 80: Companies without Filing Data

TYPE OF COMPANY NUMBER OF COMPANIES ADMITTED ASSETS (%)

P&C 80 0.29

Life 24 0.27

Health 59 1.82

Total 163 0.33

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Table is provided for illustrative purposes.

As of December 2019, the U.S. insurance industry had USD 6.7 trillion in admitted assets (see Exhibit

81).

Exhibit 81: Historical Admitted Assets

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

For the insurance industry as a whole, admitted assets grew by 6.8% in 2019. This was well above the

long-term average of 3.57% (see Exhibit 82).

Exhibit 82: Admitted Asset Growth Rate

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Adm

itte

d A

ssets

(U

SD

Trilli

ons)

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Adm

itte

d A

sset G

row

th R

ate

Admitted Asset Growth Rate Average

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 44

We segregated the companies by size, based on their admitted assets, as of Dec. 31, 2019.

• Small: Admitted Assets < USD 500 million

• Medium: USD 500 million ≤ Admitted Assets < USD 5 billion

• Large: USD 5 billion ≤ Admitted Assets < USD 50 billion

• Mega: Admitted Assets ≥ USD 50 billion

Over the past 16 years, admitted assets have been concentrated in Mega companies. As of 2019,

Mega companies represented 63% of all the industry’s admitted assets (see Exhibit 83).

Exhibit 83: Admitted Assets by Company Size

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

Life companies represented approximately 66% of all the admitted assets in the insurance industry (see

Exhibit 84). This value has remained consistent for the last 16 years.

Exhibit 84: Admitted Assets by Company Type

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

SmallMedium

Large

Mega

P&C

Life

Health

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 45

SPGMI classifies the ownership of each company in 14 different ways, which we condensed this into

three ownership structures.

• Stock: Stock Companies

• Mutual: Mutual Companies

• Other: BC/BS Not for Profit BC/BS Stock, Limited Liability Corporation, Lloyd’s

Organization, Non-Profit, Partnership (All Types), Proprietorship, Reciprocal

Exchange, Risk Retention Group, Syndicate, U.S. Branch of Alien Insurer, Other

Stock companies held the vast majority of admitted assets, with Mutual companies holding just 22% of

admitted assets (see Exhibit 85).

Exhibit 85: Admitted Assets by Ownership Structure

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

SPGMI data also allowed us to classify companies by business focus. For compactness, we grouped

the data differently from SPGMI.

Stock

Mutual

Other

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RESEARCH | Insurance 46

Exhibit 86: Number of Companies by Business Focus

LIFE COMPANIES NUMBER OF COMPANIES

P&C COMPANIES NUMBER OF COMPANIES

HEALTH COMPANIES NUMBER OF COMPANIES

Individual Life Focus 134 P&C Minimum NPW 539 Comprehensive Health 169

Life Minimum NPW 87 Personal Lines Focus 315 Health Minimum NPW 148

Annuity Focus 63 Commercial Property Focus

195 Dental/Vision 85

Group A&H Focus 54 Commercial Medical Malpractice Focus

150 Medicare Provider 78

Specialty A&H Focus 51 Commercial Workers Compensation Focus

108 Medicaid Provider 55

Other Life 39 Commercial Lines Focus 102 Other Health 48

Credit Insurance Focus 38 Other P&C 88 Health-Other Focus 27

Life Insurance Focus 29 Commercial General Liability Focus

81

Life & Annuities Focus 26 Commercial Financial Lines Focus

42

Individual Life and A&H Focus

13 Reinsurance Focus 18

Life and A&H Focus 8 Large Reinsurance Focus 10

Annuity and A&H Focus 6 Accident & Health Lines Focus

7

Personal Property Focus 1

Total 548 Total 1,656 Total 610

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Table is provided for illustrative purposes.

SPGMI had 13 classifications for P&C companies (see Exhibit 86). We collapsed these into the

following four groups.

• Commercial: Commercial Financial Lines Focus, Commercial General Liability Focus,

Commercial Lines Focus, Commercial Medical Malpractice Focus, Commercial

Property Focus, and Commercial Workers Compensation Focus

• Personal: Personal Lines Focus and Personal Property Focus

• Reinsurance: Large Reinsurance Focus and Reinsurance Focus

• Other: Accident & Health Lines Focus, P&C Minimum NPW, and Other P&C

Commercial and Personal companies had approximately the same amount of assets (see Exhibit 87).

Exhibit 87: Admitted Assets by P&C Business Focus

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

Personal

Commercial

ReinsuranceOther P&C

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RESEARCH | Insurance 47

As Exhibit 86 shows, SPGMI had 12 classifications for Life companies; we collapsed these into the

following five groups.

• Annuity: Annuity Focus and Annuity and A&H Focus

• Life: Individual Life Focus, Life Insurance Focus, and Life Minimum NPW

• Life & Health: Life and A&H Focus, Group A&H Focus, Specialty A&H Focus, and Individual

Life and A&H Focus

• Life & Annuities: Life & Annuities Focus

• Other: Credit Insurance Focus and Other Life

For Life insurance companies, Annuity companies had approximately one-half of the admitted assets

(see Exhibit 88).

Exhibit 88: Admitted Assets by Life Business Focus

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

As shown in Exhibit 86, Health companies had seven areas of business focus, which we collapsed into

four groups.

• Comprehensive Health: Comprehensive Health

• Dental/Vision: Dental/Vision

• Medicaid/Medicare: Medicaid Provider and Medicare Provider

• Other: Health-Other Focus, Health Minimum NPW, and Other Health

Comprehensive Health companies had a clear majority of the Comprehensive Health admitted assets

(see Exhibit 89).

Annuity

Life & Annuities

Life

Life & HealthOther Life

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RESEARCH | Insurance 48

Exhibit 89: Admitted Assets by Health Business Focus

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

From the SPGMI database, we extracted a list of all ETFs held by insurance companies. We did this

by matching both the tickers and CUSIP numbers of the holdings against a master ETF list. Where the

CUSIP and ticker numbers did not both match exactly, we employed a manual method to identify the

correct ETF. In spite of error-checking, insurance companies did not always file complete or correct

information. In as much as the underlying data had errors, this analysis contains errors.

Appendix 1.2: First Bridge Data

From 2015 to 2017, we used First Bridge as the source of ETF data in this analysis, in 2018, we used

Morningstar, and now the data from 2019 is from First Bridge again. To the extent that some of the

classifications are different between these sources, this analysis will vary from prior reports. We used

the categorization labels developed by First Bridge rather than developing separate definitions. For

example, we used First Bridge’s definition of Smart Beta. As before, we assumed the consistency and

completeness of the data provided by First Bridge.

For year-end 2019, First Bridge provided us with a list of 2,344 funds. We note that insurance

companies did not invest in a vast majority of these funds. While we referred to these as ETFs, the

funds had varying legal structures. The vast majority of the funds in the list were open-ended ETFs.

However, a few large funds have a Unit Investment Trust structure. The list had 168 Exchange Traded

Notes, which we excluded from the analysis. The remaining legal structures did not represent a

material amount of assets (see Exhibit 90). For this reason, we did not further analyze usage by legal

structure and referred to all these funds as ETFs.

Comprehensive Health

Medicare/Medicaid

Dental/Vision Other Health

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RESEARCH | Insurance 49

Exhibit 90: ETF AUM by Legal Structure

Source: First Bridge. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

Similarly, the CFRA data also differentiates between active funds and passive funds. While there has

been an increase in the use of Active ETFs, the amount invested was small (see Exhibit 91). Thus, we

did not perform any analysis on active versus passive funds.

Exhibit 91: ETF AUM by Active versus Passive

Source: First Bridge. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

First Bridge provides the AUM and price for each fund. By dividing the AUM by price, we can

approximate the number of shares outstanding at any period. We analyzed share growth as a proxy to

identify how much of the AUM growth was due to price appreciation in the securities and how much

was due to an actual increase in investments. This analysis was not perfect. Unlike AUM analysis,

share splits would affect these values. Also, ETFs trading at a discount or premium would affect the

share calculation. However, at an aggregate level, share analysis was directionally useful.

ETF

Unit Investment TrustGrantor Trust

Passive

Active

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 50

For the first time in 2019, ETF AUM exceeded USD 4 trillion (see Exhibit 92). Over the past 10 years,

ETF AUM increased at an annualized rate of 19%. This increase was not just because of the extended

rally in equity markets, as the number of shares outstanding also increased over the period on an

annual basis of 12% (see Exhibit 93).

Exhibit 92: ETF AUM and Shares Growth

Source: First Bridge. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

Exhibit 93: CAGR of ETF AUM and Shares Growth

Source: First Bridge. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

Often, First Bridge classified ETFs in more granular detail was needed for this analysis. In these

instances, we combined fields to make our analysis more meaningful.

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

ET

F S

hare

s (

Bill

ions)

ET

F A

UM

(U

SD

Bill

ions)

ETF AUM ETF Shares

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

ETF AUM ETF Shares

CA

GR

1-Year

3-Year

5-Year

10-Year

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ETFs in Insurance General Accounts – 2020 May 2020

RESEARCH | Insurance 51

For example, the First Bridge field of Asset Class contained six different categories. We collapsed

these into three.

• Equity: Equities

• Fixed Income: Bonds

• Other: Commodities & Metals, Currency, Target Date/Multi Asset, and Other Asset

Types.

The vast majority of U.S. ETFs were Equity ETFs. Fixed Income ETFs have grown considerably in

recent years and comprised 18% of the ETF market as of year-end 2019 (see Exhibit 94).

Exhibit 94: ETF AUM by Asset Class

Source: First Bridge. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

First Bridge segregated Equity ETFs into eight buckets by Market Capitalization. We consolidated

these into four buckets.

• Blend: Broad Market/Multi Cap

• Large Cap: Large Cap and Mega Cap

• Mid Cap: Mid Cap, Large & Mid Cap, and Small & Mid Cap

• Small Cap: Small Cap and Micro Cap

The majority of the Equity ETF AUM were split roughly between Large Cap and Blend ETFs with Mid

Cap and Small Cap evenly sharing the remainder. In terms of style, Blend ETFs had the highest

allocation (see Exhibit 95).

Equity

Fixed Income

Other

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Exhibit 95: ETF AUM by Market Capitalization and Style

Source: First Bridge. Data as of Dec. 31/2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

First Bridge classified individual sector fields for Equity ETFs, identifying the sector of the ETF

investments. It also had a field for if the fund was not sector specific or rotated through different

sectors. Using this, we created two categories to identify whether the ETF was a sector ETF.

• Not Sector: Not Applicable, Sector Rotation/Combination

• Sector: All other

Although investments in Sector ETFs grew 25% in 2019, the number of shares in these ETFs

decreased by 2.5%—indicating the market was not actively growing its investment in Sector ETFs.

Sector ETFs only represented 13% of the equity allocation (see Exhibit 96)

Exhibit 96: Equity Sector ETF AUM and Shares and CAGR Growth

Source: First Bridge. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

Large Cap

Blend

Mid Cap

Small Cap

Market Capitalization

Blend

Value

Growth

Style

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

ETF AUM ETF Shares

CA

GR

1-Year

3-Year

5-Year

10-Year

Not Sector

Sector

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We compared the ETF market allocation to various sectors relative to the sector allocation within the

S&P 500 and noted that ETF investors did not replicate the sector weights of the broader market (see

Exhibit 97).

Exhibit 97: ETF Sector Allocation versus S&P 500 Sector Allocation

Source: First Bridge and S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

First Bridge classified Bond ETFs into eight types. We narrowed this to the six Bond types.

• Broad Market: Broad Market

• Corporate: Corporate

• Treasury: Treasury & Government

• Municipal: Municipal

• Inflation Protected: Inflation Protected

• Other: Convertible, Mortgages, and Not Applicable

The largest allocation was to Broad Market ETFs. Investors pulled back from Corporate ETFs in 2018;

while they increased the allocation by 40% in 2019, the allocation did not return to prior levels (see

Exhibit 98).

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%Communication Services

Consumer Discretionary

Consumer Staples

Energy

Financials

Health CareIndustrials

Materials

Real Estate

Information Technology

Utilities

S&P 500

Sector ETF

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Exhibit 98: Fixed Income ETF AUM by Bond Type

Source: First Bridge. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

In terms of credit quality, First Bridge classified Bond ETFs as Investment Grade, High Yield, Blend, or

Not Applicable. Investment Grade ETFs comprised the majority of Bond ETFs. In terms of maturity,

First Bridge classified Bond ETFs into six buckets: < 1 Year, 1-3 Years, 3-10 Years, 10+ Years, Blend,

and Specific Year. We labeled these duration buckets Ultra Short, Short, Intermediate, and Long,

respectively. The majority of Bond ETFs had a Blend maturity (see Exhibit 99).

Exhibit 99: Fixed Income ETF AUM by Credit Quality and Maturity

Source: First Bridge. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes only

Most ETF AUM and shares had market-capitalization weights. Index providers and ETF sponsors have

created new indices and ETFs that formulaically model some of the methodology of active managers.

The earliest attempt classified stocks by their price to earnings (P/E) ratio. A “Value” bucket contained

low P/E stocks, while a “Growth” bucket contained stocks with a high P/E ratio. First Bridge classified

Broad Market

Corporate

Treasury

Municipal

Inflation Protected Other

Investment Grade

High Yield

Blend N/A

Credit Quality

Ultra Short

Short

Intermediate

Long

Blend

Specific Year

Maturity

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portfolio weighting in six ways: Traditional Beta, Smart Beta, Active Beta, Leveraged/Inverse, and

Proprietary Model.5 The vast majority of U.S. ETF used Traditional Beta, or market-capitalization

weighting. Investors have allocated a little over 12% to Smart Beta ETFs (see Exhibit 100).

Exhibit 100: ETF AUM by Beta Type

Source: First Bridge. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

Of those ETFs using Smart Beta, 98% were Equity ETFs. For these ETFs, First Bridge had 15

classifications of Smart Beta. We condensed these into the following five types.

• Dividend: Dividend

• Low Volatility: Low Volatility

• Multi-Factor: Multi-Factor

• Thematic: Thematic

• Other: Factor Weighted Growth/Value, Cap Weighted Growth/Value, Hedge Fund

Replication, High/Low Beta, Options Overlay, Revenue Weighted, Strategy,

VIX/Risk Control, Quality, Momentum, and Equal Weighted

Dividend ETFs were the most prevalent. However, since its introduction in 2011, allocation to Low

Volatility ETFs has increased substantially (see Exhibit 101).

5 See detailed descriptions of Smart Beta at First Bridge:

https://www.firstbridgedata.com/smartbetadefinitions/Smart%20Beta%20Definition%20Framework.pdf.

Traditional Beta

Smart Beta

Active Beta

Leveraged/Inverse

Proprietary Model

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Exhibit 101: Equity ETF AUM by Smart Beta Type

Source: First Bridge. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

Most insurance companies (72%) invested in the domestic ETF market, with 19% investing in

international markets and 9% investing global markets (see Exhibit 102).

Exhibit 102: ETF AUM by Region

Source: First Bridge. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

Geographically, investors allocated Equity ETFs in a similar fashion to the overall ETF market, but

Fixed Income ETFs had a larger domestic focus (see Exhibit 103).

-

50

100

150

200

250

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

ET

F A

UM

(U

SD

Bill

ions)

Dividend Low Volatility Multi Factor Thematic Other

Domestic

International

Global

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Exhibit 103: Equity and Fixed Income ETF AUM by Region

Source: First Bridge. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

Insurance companies did not invest much in ESG ETFs, but the investments in these funds have grown

rapidly. In 2019, investors increased the use of ESG ETFs by 155%. When investors did invest in

ESG ETFs, they invested mostly in broadly diversified ESG ETFs̵—as opposed to specific ESG types

(see Exhibit 104).

Exhibit 104: ESG ETFs

Source: First Bridge. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

Domestic

International

Global

Equity ETF AUM

Domestic

InternationalGlobal

Fixed Income ETF AUM

Not ESG

ESG

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

ES

G

Cle

an E

nerg

y

Corp

ora

te G

overn

ance

Fa

ith B

ased

Low

Carb

on

Fo

otp

rin

t

Waste

Managem

ent

Sh

aria

h

ET

F A

UM

(U

SD

Bill

ions)

ESG Type

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APPENDIX 2: LINEAR REGRESSION

To model the growth of ETF AUM, we applied a linear regression to the data (see Exhibit 105).

Exhibit 105: Linear Regression of ln(ETF AUM)

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

Based on the data, the following equation shows the trend of ETF AUM as a function of year.

ln(ETF AUM) = 0.1420 × Year − 262.5194

This model had a coefficient of determination of 96.33%. The coefficient of determination explains how

well the model explains the actual results. This value can range from 0% to 100%. A value of 0%

implies that the independent variable (year) cannot explain the dependent variable (AUM). A value of

100% implies that the model explains the dependent variable exactly. Using this model, we can

estimate future AUM, assuming the growth continues according to the historical trend.

We performed a similar exercise with the number of shares held by insurance companies (see Exhibit

106).

Exhibit 106: Linear Regression of ln(ETF Shares)

Source: NAIC via S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data as of Dec. 31, 2019. Chart is provided for illustrative purposes.

Based on the data, the following equation shows the trend of ETF shares as a function of year.

ln(ETF Shares) = 0.1167 × Year − 215.5730

This model has a coefficient of determination of 94.48%. We can use this model to estimate future

share growth, assuming growth continues according to its historical trend.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

ET

F A

UM

(U

SD

Bill

ions)

Actual Modeled

0

100

200

300

400

500

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

ET

F S

hare

s (

Mill

ions)

Actual Modeled

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