ET2050Application of the Three Horizon Model

Carlo Sessa – ISIS – mc7920@mclink.it

ET2050 Project Group MeetingBarcelona, 25-27 September 2013

Source of the “Three-Horizons Model”

Schematic of the futures-oriented Three Horizons model (source Curry & Hodgson, 2008)

STRATEGIC FIT TOCOMPETITIVENESSCOHESIONSUSTAINABILITY

20502020 2030

ET2050 Scenarios

ET2050Territorial

Vision(1° draft)

Application of Three-Horizons Model in ET2050

First Horizon: Today fossil-fuel based system passing away

Third Horizon: Tomorrow low carbon system coming in

Second Horizon: Mid-term choices bringing Europe towards the first or the third horizon

What does “horizons” mean in this model?

ENERGY TRANSITION EXAMPLE:

A more detailed description of the horizons(example related to the energy transition)

The triangle of choice (source Curry & Hodgson, 2008)

The midterm is the time window for choices to be made(2° Horizon)

A more detailed description of midterm choices(example related to the energy transition)

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STRATEGIC FIT TOCOMPETITIVENESSCOHESIONSUSTAINABILITY

20502020 2030

ET2050 Scenarios

ET2050Territorial

Vision(1° draft)

TERRITORIAL VISION(2° draft)

Midterm targets & pathways

Midterm targets & pathways

What we want

How we can achieve

Delivering the second draft of the ET2050 Territorial Vision & midterm targets and pathways