Estratégia e Liderança em Contextos de Incerteza ISEG_IDEFE
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Transcript of Estratégia e Liderança em Contextos de Incerteza ISEG_IDEFE
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Inscrições: http://www1.idefe.pt/cursos/elci
(+351) 917681857 (+351) 213 922 727
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PROGRAMA SCANNING THE ENVIRONMENT - Prospectiva/Foresight: Princípios e Conceitos Base - Environmental Scanning - introdução e conceitos operacionais - Conceitos e Frameworks para compreender um novo contexto empresarial e industrial - Trabalhando com Forças Globais, Consumer Trends e Modelos de Negócio - O Método dos Cenários - Simulação de futuros possíveis
STRATEGIZING TO THE CORE - A Estratégia num Contexto Global e Incerto - O Ambiente Interno: Recursos, Capacidades e Competências Distintivas - Novas competências e ferramentas para lidar com um novo ambiente - Ferramentas de Gestão Estratégica e respetiva articulação com os Cenários
LEADING IN UNCERTAIN TIMES - Ruptura de Paradigma e a Emergência da Liderança - Liderar na Era da Turbulência - O Líder, a Comunicação e a Gestão da Mudança - Liderança e Gestão: diferenças e complementaridades - Liderar a Cultura de Desconfiança em Portugal
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Uma experiência única, interactiva e multisensorial
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Prospectiva
Foresight
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Ciência. Arte. Prática
Lógica. Intuição. Experimentação
Antecipação. Acção. Apropriação
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PRINCÍPIOS DA PROSPECTIVA
O Longo Prazo e a
“Visão Longa”
Retrospectiva e
Visão periféricaMúltiplas Perspectivas
Jogo dos Actores Visão Global e
Sistémica
System Dynamics Lab, Virginia Lab, USA.
Out-of-the box thinking
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Megatrends &
Global Forces
…
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Megatrends
Global Forces
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
• Ageing and shrinking populations in
Developed Countries
• Growing Population and baby boom in some
Developing Countries
• Increasing migration streams
• Demographic shifts
NEW PATTERNS OF MOBILITY
• Globally, mobility increases
• Barriers to mobility increase
• Transport infrastructures are
upgraded/extended
• New vehicle concepts – new drive
technologies
CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD
• Advances in automation (from the sector of
production to the sectors of service and
knowledge)
• Highly flexible working practices (anytime,
anywhere)
• Flexible, interactive work structures
NEW CONSUMPTION PATTERNS
• The Third World participates in economic
wealth (Bottom of the Pyramid)
• Catch-up luxury in China, India, and Russia
• Sustainable consumption in the West (Eco
Chic, Moral Commerce)
URBANISATION
• Megacities grow strongly
• Development of adapted infrastructure
solutions
• New forms of residence, living, and
participation
DIGITAL LIFESTYLE
• Web 2.0: New media find their way into our
everyday lives
• Digital lifestyle: Virtual reality becomes real
• Virtual business worlds
GLOBALISATION 2 . 0
• Shift to Asia (China and India) and a new role
for the West
• Global strategies, customised to places and
regions
• Globalised Flow of Capital, (+ goods, services,
people, information)
CULTURAL DIVERSITY
• Plural ways of life between tradition and today
• Value systems compete globally
• Emergence of hybrid culture
NEW POLITICALWORLD ORDER
• China and India join the ranks of world powers
• Crisis of Western democracies
• Russia’s renaissance
• Africa awakes
UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE
• IT-revolution continues
• Ambient Intelligence: New interfaces, new
surfaces
• Neuro sciences, “AI”, and robotics
• Transparent society: Surveillance & control
KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY
• Education and learning as a basis
• Innovation as a key driver and competition
factor
• New global knowledge elite – the creative
class
HEALTH AND WELLBEING RISE AND CONVERGING
• Health tech – human enhancement ,
Biomedical self-design, health style
• New foodstuffs (functional food, genetically
modified food, novel food)
• New converging markets (food,
pharmarmaceuticals, drugs, cosmetics)
GROWING THREATS TO
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
• Global risk society
• Festering cultural conflicts & failed states
• Global terrorism
• Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCE
• Information and nanotechnology to be key
drivers of convergence
• Stimuli in many areas of application (medical
science, energy, materials)
• NBIC-convergence
BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS
• Open systems and networks: Limits of
industries, markets, and businesses dissolve
• New value-adding chains (customer
integration, coopetition)
• Business Mashups: Interfaces give rise to new
markets
ENERGY AND RESOURCE REVERSAL
• Strategic resource scarcities (fossil fuels,
freshwater, minerals, metals)
• Use of alternative sources of energy and
renewable resources
• Revolution in energy efficiency
• Decentralised energy supply
CLIMATE CHANGE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
• CO2-discharges and global rise of
temperatures
• Increase of environmental problems in
emerging and developing countries
• Clean technologies
• Corporate responsibility increases
INDIVIDUALISATION REACHES A NEW STAGE
• Individualism, a global phenomenon
• Changing relationship patterns: Few strong,
many loose relationships
• From mass markets to micro markets
• Self-sufficiency and DIY-economy
WOMEN ON THE RISE
• Women are integrated into the working world
• “Female” soft skills become more important
• Participation as market actors: Defining
influence on product and service standards
• Work-life balance
WATER CHALLENGES
• Only a small fraction is freshwater
• Aggravation by consequences of climate
change + Urbanisation and water shortage
• Water recycling (“Zero discharge”)
• Measurement of water quality
• Advanced water treatment
• Intelligent Waters Grids?
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… Consumer,
Market &
Technology
Trends
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www.trendwatching.com
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Planeamento
por Cenários
Aprender a Lidar e a tomar Decisões
em contextos de Incerteza
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A Estratégia
num Contexto
Incerto em
Aceleração
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“Companies fail to create the future not because they fail to
predict it but because they fail to imagine it”
Gary Hamel
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STRATEGIC AGILITY
Source: Doz, Kosonen, 2006, 2008.
Perceive!
Commit!
Execute!
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Scoping: Para Onde
Olhar?
Scanning: Como Olhar?
Interpreting: O que
significam os dados?
Probing: O Que
Explorar de forma mais Aprofundada?
Acting: O que fazer com
estes Insights?
Organizing: Como desenvolver a Vigilância
Leading: Uma Agenda para a Acção
Fonte: Day, Schoemaker, 2006.
STRATEGIC AGILITY
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LIDERANÇA em contextos de Incerteza
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Estrutura de Coordenação
(da hierarquia à rede)
Liderança
(Estratégia)
Cultura
Sistema de
Relacionamento
entre Actores
APROPRIAÇÃO
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Emergência da Liderança, da Estrutura em Rede e
da Cultura de Equipa
Gestão Liderança
Ruptura de Paradigma
Envolvente Estável Envolvente Incerta e Turbulenta
Integração pela Hierarquia
Integração pelo Mercado
Integração pela Rede
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Inscrições: http://www1.idefe.pt/cursos/elci
(+351) 917681857 (+351) 213 922 727