Estimating software - intensive projectsEstimating software - intensive projects Combining...
Transcript of Estimating software - intensive projectsEstimating software - intensive projects Combining...
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Estimating software-Estimating software-intensive projectsintensive projects
Combining techniques for the right result.
Emmanuel Gonnet, September 2008
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Game TimeGame Time
� You can win a prize!� You can win a prize!� Estimate how many slides I will go through
during my presentation?during my presentation?
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AgendaAgenda
� Solving business problems� Solving business problems� Examining some fundamentals� Reviewing the estimation methods� Reviewing the estimation methods
� Historical data� Counting� Counting� Decomposition
� Combining methods for better results� Combining methods for better results� Concluding – Best practices
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What business problems?What business problems?
� Estimation solves issues related to � Estimation solves issues related to “guesstimation” by:� Reducing gaps between targets and reality� Reducing gaps between targets and reality� Enabling planning and monitoring activities
� Resource planning� Scheduling
� Gating the investment processFacilitating communication and transparency� Facilitating communication and transparency
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AgendaAgenda
� Solving business problems� Solving business problems� Examining some fundamentals� Reviewing the estimation methods� Reviewing the estimation methods
� Expert judgment� Historical data� Historical data� Counting
� Concluding – Best practices� Concluding – Best practices
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Accuracy varies with timeAccuracy varies with time
400%
100%200%300%400%
Source: COCOMO
0%
Source: The Rational Unified Source: The Rational Unified Process
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ImplicationsImplications
� Single point estimates are not accurate� Single point estimates are not accurate� Accuracy should improve with time� The estimation method should change as the � The estimation method should change as the
project progresses.
200%300%400%
0%100%200%
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Choice of an estimation methodChoice of an estimation method
� The choice of estimation method depends on:� The choice of estimation method depends on:� The nature of the software (embedded, …)� The size of the project (small, medium..)� The size of the project (small, medium..)� The point in time when the estimation is done� The type of project (Greenfield, � The type of project (Greenfield,
maintenance…)� Others?
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ImplicationsImplications
� Organizations should master multiple � Organizations should master multiple estimation methods that map to the possible scenarios they may face.� Some estimation techniques are not
appropriate for certain combinations of variablesvariables
� A decision tree is needed to identify the right technique in the right contexttechnique in the right context
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Cost is size times productivityCost is size times productivity
Where� Cost could be “days”� Cost could be “days”� Size could be “number of work units”� Productivity could be “days/number of work � Productivity could be “days/number of work
units”
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ImplicationsImplications
� Regardless of the technique used:� Regardless of the technique used:� Size of the effort should be estimated� Productivity and contextual assumptions � Productivity and contextual assumptions
should be articulated.
� Sizing and productivity information should be � Sizing and productivity information should be transferable between estimation techniques� Establishing “work units” is paramount� Productivity is a major data element
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AgendaAgenda
� Solving business problems� Solving business problems� Examining some fundamentals� Reviewing the estimation methods� Reviewing the estimation methods
� Historical data� Counting� Counting� Decomposition
� Concluding – Best practices� Concluding – Best practices
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Historical dataHistorical data
� Based on past experience and recorded � Based on past experience and recorded information
� Techniques are:� Techniques are:� Expert judgments (i.e. wideband delphi)� Industry benchmarks� Industry benchmarks� Recorded data (i.e. Timesheets)� AnalogyAnalogy
� Are you records in the C=S*P format?
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CountingCounting
� Based on the computation of certain � Based on the computation of certain elements
� Techniques are:� Techniques are:� Function points, use case points…� Proxy-based methods� Proxy-based methods� What else can you count?
� Good way to size the effort� Good way to size the effort� Still require productivity information
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DecompositionDecomposition
� Based on the division of work into “bite-size” � Based on the division of work into “bite-size” components
� Techniques are:� Techniques are:� Decomposition into WBS� Decomposition of functions…� Decomposition of functions…
� Still requires historical data and counts:� List of tasks� List of tasks� Counting the functions …
� Benefits from the law of large numbers� Benefits from the law of large numbers
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Focus on use case pointsFocus on use case points
� (AW + UW) * TF * EF * PHF� (AW + UW) * TF * EF * PHF� Where (AW+UW) * TF represent the size� Where EF*PHF represents the productivity� Where EF*PHF represents the productivity
� Requires � The counting of use cases and actors� The counting of use cases and actors� Measures of productivity elements (data)
� Preferred method for the unified process post � Preferred method for the unified process post inception-phase
AW: Actor Weight, UW: Use Case Weight, TF: Technical Factors, EF: Environment Factors, PHF: Person Hour Factor
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AgendaAgenda
� Solving business problems� Solving business problems� Examining some fundamentals� Reviewing the estimation methods� Reviewing the estimation methods
� Historical data� Counting� Counting� Decomposition
� Concluding – Best practices� Concluding – Best practices
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Example: combining techniques for better accuracyaccuracy
Expert JudgmentExpert Judgment
Decomposition
Historical data
Use Case Point
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Best practicesBest practices
� Contextualize the estimation process� Contextualize the estimation process� Adopt the method that matches the situation� Combine methods for better results� Combine methods for better results
� Choose work units and a data collection schemescheme� Measure both size and productivity� Employ measurable work unitsEmploy measurable work units� Record data for better calibration and process
improvement (learning)
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Thanks you! Q/A Thanks you! Q/A
GEM-UP CONSULTING is a management consulting practicefocusing on providing expert advices to organizations in thebusiness of developing software.www.gem-up.com
Take the higher ground is a registered trademark of GEM-UP CONSUSLTING. Copyright © 2008. All rights reserved.
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Winners?Winners?
� This presentation had 21 slides.� This presentation had 21 slides.