Estimated Urban Runoff Copper Reductions Resulting from Brake ...

EstimatedUrbanRunoffCopperReductionsResulting

fromBrakePadCopperRestrictions

CaliforniaStormwaterQualityAssociation

April13,2016

EstimatedUrbanRunoffCopperReductionsResultingfromBrakePadCopperUseRestrictions Pageii

Preface

ThisreportwaspreparedfortheCaliforniaStormwaterQualityAssociation(CASQA)underthesupervisionofCASQA’sWatershedManagement&ImpairedWatersSubcommittee.Thereportisanupdateandexpansionofa2013memorandumpreparedforRichardWatson&AssociateswithfundingfromtheLosCerritosChannelWatershedGroup(Moran2013).ThisreportisacomponentofCASQA’sSourceControlInitiative,whichseekstoaddressstormwaterandurbanrunoffpollutantsattheirsources.Thisreportwascommissionedtodevelopscientificestimatesofcopperloadreductionsduetovehiclebrakepadcoppercontentreductionmandatestoinformdecision-makingbyCASQA,stormwaterpermittees,andwaterqualityregulatorsrelatedtomanagementofcopperasawaterpollutant.Thisreportdocumentsscientificresearch.Itreliesoninformationfromthescientificliterature,vehicleindustry,andgovernmentagencies.Becauseoftheuncertaintiesinherentinresearchworkandtherelianceonscientificstudiesconductedbyandinformationprovidedbyotherorganizations,neitherCASQA,itsBoardofDirectors,theWatershedSubcommittee,anycontributors,northeauthorsmakeanywarranty,expressedorimplied,norassumeanylegalliabilityorresponsibilityforanythirdparty'suseofthisreportortheconsequencesofuseofanyinformation,product,orprocessdescribedinthisreport.Mentionoftradenamesorcommercialproducts,organizations,orsuppliersdoesnotconstituteanactualorimpliedendorsementorrecommendationfororagainstuse,orwarranty.

NotetoReaders

WhilethisreporthasbeenpreparedprimarilyforCASQAmembersandothersinCalifornia,ittakesagenericapproachtoestimatingurbanrunoffcopperreductionsduetoNorthAmerica-widechangestriggeredbyCaliforniaandWashingtonStatelaws.AlthoughtheestimatesuseafewCalifornia-specificdatasets(e.g.,vehiclefleetmixdata),mostoftheinputinformationisgeneric,withtheintentofprovidinginformationusefulinanyhighlyurbanized,highlyimperviousNorthAmericanwatershed(withconsiderationoflocalcharacteristics).Thereportreliesheavilyondatafromtwosources:(1)theCalifornia-foundedBrakePadPartnership,aninternationalpartnershipthatusedSanFranciscoBayasitscasestudyexample,and(2)theWashingtonDepartmentofEcology,whichistheonlyorganizationthatcurrentlycollectspubliclyavailabledatacharacterizingbrakepadssoldinNorthAmerica.Washingtondata,collectedunderrequirementsinitsstatelawthatarenotpartofCalifornialaw,areparticularlyimportantbecausetheyarethefirsttocoverallvehiclebrakepadsandtheyareupdatedquarterly,providingtheabilitytrackmarketchanges.Organizationsusingtheseestimatesshouldevaluateapplicabilitytotheirspecificwatershedscarefully,consideringwatershed-specificcharacteristicsandanyspeciallocalcoppersources,andshouldrecognizetheuncertaintiesinherentintheseestimatesaswellastheirgenericnature.

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ReportPreparerandAcknowledgements

TDCEnvironmental,LLCpreparedthisreport.KellyD.Moran,Ph.D.wastheleadauthor.TheauthorappreciatestheincrediblededicationoftheBrakePadPartnershipSteeringCommitteemembersandthePartnership’smanyfunders,whosejointeffortsmadevirtuallyallofinformationinthisreportavailabletothepublicandwerethefoundationforthebrakepadcopperreductionsthatarecurrentlyunderway.Theauthorthanksthefollowingreviewersfortheirassistancewithcompletingthisreport:

• IanWesley,WashingtonDepartmentofEcology• JianPeng,RitaAbellar,StuartGoong,andChrisCrompton,OrangeCounty• GeoffBrosseau,CASQA• RichardWatson,RichardWatson&Associates

Copyright©2016CaliforniaStormwaterQualityAssociation.Allrightsreserved.CASQAmemberorganizationsmayincludethisreportintheirannualreportsprovidedcreditisprovidedtoCASQA.Shortsectionsoftext,nottoexceedthreeparagraphs,maybequotedwithoutwrittenpermissionprovidedthatfullattributionisgiventothesource.

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EstimatedUrbanRunoffCopperReductionsResultingfromBrakePadCopperUseRestrictions

TableofContentsSummary.....................................................................................................................................................vii

Section1:Background..............................................................................................................................11.1BrakePadCopperReductionRequirements....................................................................................11.2ImplementingBrakePadCopperReduction....................................................................................2

Section2:SummaryofAvailableInformation...............................................................................52.1BrakePadCopperReductionSchedule...............................................................................................52.2BrakePadCopperContent........................................................................................................................52.3BrakePadReplacementFrequency.......................................................................................................82.4VehicleFleetCharacterization.................................................................................................................82.5BrakePadCopperinUrbanRunoff........................................................................................................8

Section3:ComputationalAssumptions.........................................................................................10

Section4:BrakePadCopperReductionScenarios..................................................................16Scenario1–One-StepReduction.................................................................................................................16Scenario2–Two-StepReduction................................................................................................................17Scenario3–AftermarketExemptionfrom0.5%CopperStandard..............................................19

Section5:Results....................................................................................................................................215.1EstimationApproach................................................................................................................................215.2Results.............................................................................................................................................................225.3ComparisontoWashingtonDepartmentofEcologyEstimates.............................................295.4Uncertainties................................................................................................................................................295.5MonitoringProgress.................................................................................................................................30

Section6:Conclusions...........................................................................................................................31

Section7:Recommendations............................................................................................................33References..................................................................................................................................................35

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ListofTablesTable1.CopperReductionScenarioSummary..........................................................................ixTable2.EstimatedUrbanRunoffCopperReductionfromBrakePadsAlone.............xii

Table3.BrakePadCopperReductionImplementationTimeline.......................................2Table4.BrakePadCopperContentCategories...........................................................................3

Table5.AverageManufacturedBrakePadCopperContent,2006-2015........................6

Table6.AverageBrakePadCopperContentbyCertificationLevel,July2015............7Table7.AverageEstimatedBrakePadCopperContent2011.............................................7

Table8.OriginalEquipmentBrakePadCopperReductionScheduleAssumptions.10

Table9.AftermarketBrakePadCopperReductionScheduleAssumptions................11Table10.BrakePadReplacementAssumptions......................................................................12

Table11.BrakePadCopperContentAssumptions.................................................................13Table12.VehicleFleetAssumptions.............................................................................................14

Table13.VehicleMilesTraveled(VMT)Assumptions..........................................................15

Table14.UrbanRunoffAssumptions............................................................................................15Table15.Scenario1–EstimatedCopperReductions............................................................25

Table16.Scenario2–EstimatedCopperReductions............................................................26Table17.Scenario3a–EstimatedCopperReductions.........................................................27

Table18.Scenario3b–EstimatedCopperReductions.........................................................28

Table19.EstimatedAverageCopperContentofBrakePadsManufacturedin2021:ComparisonamongScenarios1-3andWashingtonEcologyEstimate..................29

ListofFiguresFigure1.AverageBrakePadCopperContentbyYearManufactured:ReportedData

ComparedtoEstimates..................................................................................................................x

Figure2.UrbanRunoffCopperReductionProjections.............................................................xFigure3.AverageBrakePadCopperContentbyCertificationLevel................................7

Figure4.AverageBrakePadCopperContentbyYearManufactured:ReportedDataComparedtoEstimates...............................................................................................................23

Figure5.AverageBrakePadCopperContentbyYearManufactured:ReportedDataComparedtoEstimates(Baselinethrough2019)...........................................................23

Figure6.On-RoadBrakePadCopperContentProjections..................................................24

Figure7.UrbanRunoffCopperReductionProjections..........................................................24

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Summary

InresponsetoCaliforniaandWashingtonstatelawsmandatingthenearphase-outofcopperinvehiclebrakepads,thetransitionto<0.5%copperbrakepads(oftencalled“copperfree”or“nointentionallyaddedcopper”)iswellunderway.Qualitatively,allsignspointtosignificantupcomingreductionsinbrakepadcopper.Thisreportprovidesquantitativeestimatesoftheanticipatedupcomingcopperreductionsinthebrakepadmarket,on-roadvehicles,andurbanrunoff.Theseestimatesaredesignedforurbanrunoffmanagementplanningpurposes.

Theestimatesrelyonavailableinformation,whichwaslargelydevelopedthroughthelengthycollaborationamongbrakepadmanufacturers,governmentagencies,andenvironmentalgroupsintheBrakePadPartnership(BPP).Sincecertainelementsofthebrakepadcopperreductionscheduleareunknownatthistimeduetotheproprietarynatureofproductformulationandsalesdata,theestimatesarebasedonaseriesofreasonableassumptionsdevelopedonthebasisofavailabledata.

Theestimatesevaluatedthreescenarios(seeTable1)developedtospanthereasonablerangeofindustryproductmodificationschedules.Scenario3,whichexaminestheeffectofareplacementbrakepadexemptionforoldervehicles,hastwovariantstoencompasspossibleindustryresponses.Foreachscenario,thereportprovidesquantitativeestimatesofbrakepadcoppercontentreductionsandsubsequenturbanrunoffcopperreductions.

Basedoncompliancecertificationdata,inmid-201544%ofbrakepadformulationscontained<0.5%copper.Brakepadscontaining>5%copper(whichaverage13%copperbyweight),causetheoverallaveragecoppercontentofallcertifiedbrakepadstobe5.6%,a32%reductionfromtheBPP’s2006roughestimateofnewvehiclebrakepadcoppercontentanda22%reductionfromvaluesreportedin2011.

Theaveragebrakepadmanufacturedin2021areexpectedtocontain81-99%lesscopperthantheydidintheearly2010s(SeeFigure1).ThisestimatematchestheWashingtonDepartmentofEcology’sestimate,whichusedadifferentcomputationalmethod.Thesebrakepadcoppercontentreductionestimatesareconsistentwithbrakepadcopperdata

Today,44%ofavailablebrakepadformulationscontain<0.5%copper.

Brakepadsinmid-2015containedanaverageof5.6%copper–a22%reductionfrom2011(reporteddata)andasmuchas32%lessthan2006(roughestimate).

Brakepadsmanufacturedin2021areexpectedtocontain81-99%lesscopperthantheydidintheearly2010s.

Urbanrunoffcopperlevelswillbeginrespondingmeasurablyinthe2020s.Urbanrunoffcopperloadsareexpectedtobe46%to57%lowerby2024.

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collectedtodatebytheWashingtonDepartmentofEcology(seeblacklineinFigure1).ThecurrentreductiontrendappearstobemidwaybetweenthemostoptimisticScenario1andthemoderateScenario2.

Inanygivenyear,urbanrunoffcopperreductionslagbehindcoppercontentreductionsinmanufacturedbrakepadsbecausebrakepadsareonlychangedonaverageeverythreetofiveyears,wholesalerandretailerinventoriestakeanaverageoftwoyearstoturnover,andurbanwatershedsdonotimmediatelyclearpollutantswhendischargescease.Accountingforthesefactors,urbanrunoffreductionwasestimatedthrough2032.Theresultingestimates,summarizedinTable2andgraphedinFigure2,areexpressedasapercentagereductionincopperinurbanrunoff,withamaximum61%reductionreflecting<0.5%copperinessentiallyallon-roadvehiclebrakepads.(Othercoppersourcescomposetheremaining39%ofurbanrunoffcopperload.)

Urbanrunoffcopperlevelsareexpectedtobeginrespondingmeasurablytobrakepadcopperreductionsinthe2020s.Urbanrunoffcopperloadsareexpectedtobe46%to57%lowerby2024.Thetimeframeforreachingmaximumreductionscouldbeassoonastheearly2030s,butwouldbesubstantiallydelayedifWashingtonState(whichhasregulationsthatheavilyinfluencetheCaliforniabrakepadmarket)weretomodifyitsregulatoryapproachforreplacementbrakepadsforoldervehicles.Themostsignificantuncertaintiesintheseestimatesareuncertaintiesinbrakepadcoppercontent(marketvolumesareunavailable),futurechangesinvehiclemilestraveled,andwatershedresponsetimes,whichareaffectedbywatershed-specificcharacteristicsandvariationinannualrainfallvolumes.

Insummary:

• Newlymanufacturedvehiclebrakepadscontain,onaverage,significantlylesscopperthantheydidintheearly2010s.

• Inmid-2015,44%ofbrakepadformulationscontained<0.5%copper.• Brakepadsmanufacturedin2021areexpectedtocontain81-99%less

copperthantheydidintheearly2010s.• On-roadbrakepadcoppercontentisdropping,butmoreslowlythan

manufacturedbrakepadcoppercontent.A35%to43%reductioninon-roadbrakecoppercontentshouldoccurby2019.

• Duetotheslowerchangeinon-roadbrakesandwatershedlagtimes,urbanrunoffcopperlevelsareslower.Theyareanticipatedtodropby21-27%by2020andby46-57%by2024.

• WashingtonState’supcomingdecisionaboutimplementingrequirementsthatallbrakepadscontain<0.5%copperhasimportantwaterqualityimplicationsinCaliforniaandtherestofthenation.

RecommendationsfortheCaliforniaStormwaterQualityAssociationanditsmembers:

(1) SharetheseprojectionswithWashingtonStateandwiththevehicleindustry.

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(2) Updatethesecopperreductionestimatesin2018usingdatafromimplementationofCaliforniaSB346andWashingtonStatelaw.

(3) UsetheCaliforniaStateWaterBoardSurfaceWaterAmbientMonitoringProgramSedimentPollutionTrendsProgramsedimentmonitoringtotrackbrakepadcopperreductions.

(4) Usetheurbanrunoffcopperreductionestimatesinthisreport,incombinationwithlocaldata,forurbanrunoffmanagementplanningpurposes,doingsoinamannerthatrecognizesthatuncertaintiesintheestimatesanduniquelocalwatershedcharacteristics.

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Table1.CopperReductionScenarioSummary

YearScenario1–One-StepReduction

Scenario2–Two-StepReduction

Scenario3a-Aftermarket

Exemptionfrom0.5%Copper(Like-for-LikeReplacement)

Scenario3b-Aftermarket

Exemptionfrom0.5%Copper

(UnconstrainedReplacement)

2014

0.5%copperbrakepadsbeginto

phaseintonewvehicles

5%copperbrakepadsbegintophaseintonew

vehicles

5%copperbrakepadsbegintophaseintonewvehicles

5%copperbrakepadsbegintophaseintonewvehicles

2015 2016 2017

2018

0.5%copperbrakepadsbegintophaseintonewvehicles



2019 2020

2021 AllOEPads<0.5%copper

AllOEPads<5%copper

AllOEPads<5%copper

AllOEPads<5%copper

2022

2023

AllreplacementPads<0.5%copper

Allreplacementpads<5%copper



2024

2025 AllOEPads<0.5%copper

AllOEPads<0.5%copper

AllOEPads<0.5%copper

2026

2027 Allreplacementpads<0.5%copper

2028 2029 2030 2031

2032 Allreplacementpadseventually<0.5%

copper

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Figure1.AverageBrakePadCopperContentbyYearManufactured:ReportedDataComparedtoEstimates

Figure2.UrbanRunoffCopperReductionProjections

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Table2.EstimatedUrbanRunoffCopperReductionfromBrakePadsAlone

YearScenario1-OneStepReduction

Scenario2-TwoStepReduction

Scenario3a-Aftermarket

Exemptionfrom0.5%CopperwithLike-for-LikeReplacements

Scenario3b-Aftermarket

Exemptionfrom0.5%CopperwithNo

ReductioninCopperPadMarketFraction

2016 2.8% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%2020 27.0% 21.3% 22.1% 21.2%2024 57.0% 49.8% 47.9% 46.4%2028 61.6% 60.3% 54.6% 51.9%2032 61.6% 61.6% 57.7% 52.0%

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Section1:Background

Asimpleaction—vehicledrivershittingthebrakes—releasedabout600,000kilograms(1.3millionpounds)ofcopperintoCalifornia’senvironmentin2010.Eachtimevehiclebrakesengage,atinyamountoffinedustwearsoffofthevehicle’sbrakepads.Whenitrains,someofthisdustwashesintourbanrunoff.Scientificstudiesindicatethatdustgeneratedbyvehiclebrakesisbyfarthemostsignificantsourceofcopperinurbanwatersheds.InCalifornia’smosturbanizedwatersheds,brakepadcopperisestimatedtocomposemorethan60%ofallcopperinurbanrunoff(Donigian2009).1

1.1 Brake Pad Copper Reduction Requirements

ACalifornialawenactedin2010,CaliforniaSB346(Kehoe)setinplaceaprogramthatwillnearlyeliminatecopperuseinbrakepads.CaliforniaSB346requiresthatbrakepadssoldinCaliforniacontainnomorethan5%copperbyweightby2021,andnomorethan0.5%by2025.Accordingtoarepresentativeindustryanalysis,asof2006,newvehiclebrakepadscontainedanaverageofabout8%copperbyweight(BPP2008).Thelawalsolimitsdangerous—butfortunatelylesscommon—brakepadpollutants,byprohibitingsaleofbrakepadscontainingmorethantraceamountsoflead,mercury,asbestos,cadmium,andhexavalentchromiumin2014.Toavoidreplacingoneenvironmentalproblemwithanother,CaliforniaSB346requiresmanufacturerstoexaminenewformulationscarefullyandtoselectalternativesthatposelesspotentialhazardtopublichealthandtheenvironment.Consumersafetywillbeensuredthroughalimiteddeadlineextensionprocessforthe20250.5%copperrequirement(availablestartingonlywhenamanufacturerdemonstratesthatnoalternativebrakefrictionmaterialswillbesafeandavailable)andbyprovisionsallowingcontinuedsalesofreplacementbrakepadsforoldervehicles.ThebrakepadcoppercontentcertificationandlabelingsystemestablishedbyCaliforniaSB346willprovideforreadyidentificationofbrakepadswiththelowestcoppercontent.FollowingCalifornia’smodel,theStateofWashingtonalsoenactedrestrictionsonbrakepadcoppercontentin2010(WashingtonState2010).Washington’slawprovidesslightlydifferentexemptionsthanCalifornia’slaw—notablyamuchnarrowerexemptionfor“aftermarket”brakepadsthatreplacethe“originalequipment”brakepadssoldwithnewvehicles.WashingtonlawalsohasanotherimportantdifferencefromCalifornialaw—itrequiresmanufacturerstoprovideWashingtonStateDepartmentofEcologywithperiodicreportsofbrakepadcopper,antimony,nickel,andzinccontent,startingin2013.

1Seereferencelistattheendofthisreport.

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1.2 Implementing Brake Pad Copper Reduction

DuetotheimportanceofCalifornia’svehiclemarketandtheinterconnectionofvehiclepartsdistributionsystemsthroughoutNorthAmerica,brakepadmanufacturersexpectthatitisunlikelythatanymanufacturerwillproduceCalifornia-specificorWashington-specificproducts(MEMA2012a).Instead,copperreductionwillbeintegratedthroughouttheentireNorthAmericanbrakepadmarket(MEMA2012a).

Reflectingitsnationwidecommitmenttobrakepadcopperreduction,vehicleindustryassociationssigneda2015MemorandumofUnderstanding(MOU)withtheU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency(U.S.EPA)committingtotakingtheCalifornia/Washingtoncopperreductionprogramnationwide(U.S.EPA2015).Table3providesatimelineofkeyimplementationactionssincethebrakepadcopperreductionlawswereadopted.

Table3.BrakePadCopperReductionImplementationTimeline

Year Action References2010 CaliforniaandWashingtonbrakepadcopperlawsadopted CaliforniaSB3462010;

WashingtonStateSB65572010

2011-2012

Automotiveindustrydevelopedandadoptedcompliancecertificationmarkings,boxmarkings,andcertifiedchemicalanalysismethods.

SAE2011;SAE2012;MEMA2012b

2012 WashingtonStateadoptedregulationsspecifyingtesting,marking,andreportingrequirements

WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2012

2013 NSFInternational,thesolebrakefrictionmaterialcertificationorganization(alsoknownasthe“registrar”)beganissuingbrakefrictionmaterialcertifications.

NSFInternational2015

2014 BrakepadsbearingcompliancecertificationmarkingsbeganappearingonCaliforniaretailshelves.CaliforniaDepartmentofToxicSubstancesControl(DTSC)initiateddevelopmentofregulationstomakeCaliforniaSB346fullyenforceableinCalifornia.AdoptionhasbeendelayedduetoCaliforniaDTSCresourceconstraints,butisanticipatedin2016.

2015 AsofOctober2015,NSFInternationalhadcertifiedmorethan5,000brakefrictionmaterialformulations,44%ofwhichcontain<0.5%copper.SeeSection2.2formoreinformationonbrakepadcoppercontent).MostbrakepadsavailableforsaleinCaliforniabearcompliancemarkings,bothonpadsandboxes.WashingtonDepartmentofEcologyissuesfindingthatcopperfreebrakepads“may”beavailable,triggeringthenextstepsinWashington’sregulatoryprocesstodeterminewhether(orwhen)toimplementrequirementsthatallbrakepadscontain<0.5%copper(similartoCalifornia’s2025requirements).

NSFInternational2015WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2015b

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Basedontheframeworksinthestatelawsandsystemsadoptedbytheindustry,brakepadsarecertifiedinthreegroups—A,B,andN—summarizedinTable4.Thematchingboxcompliancemarkinglogo,calledthe“LeafMark”isa3-leafsymbolthataccompaniesthecertificationletter.Thenumberofdarkleavesinthelogoindicatesthecertificationlevel,withthedarkestshadingforthelowestcopperbrakepads.

Table4.BrakePadCopperContentCategories

CertificationLevel Definition BoxMarkingSymbol*

A Meetslegalstandardsforasbestos,cadmium,chromium,lead,andmercury

Singleshadedleaf

B SameasAand<5%and≥0.5%copper(“lowcopper”)

Twoshadedleaves

N SameasAand<0.5%copper(“copperfree”) Allthreeleavesshaded*Logographicsnotincludedduetoindustryrestrictionsonlogouse.

IntheyearssinceCaliforniaSB346wasenacted,thevehicleindustryhasactivelyengagedinimplementingthelaw(e.g.,Moran2011).Therehasbeenstrongindustryattentiontoformulating,testing,andmarketinglow-copperandcopper-freebrakepads(Honeywellundated;FDPBrake2010-2012;Venetis2012;PerformanceFriction2012;Williamsundated;Fastmagna.com2010;Bendix2012;Phoenix2010;ALCO2012;Wilson2012;Crowe2012;AftermarketNews2012;Murphy2012;BoschAutoParts2014).Prominentmanufacturershaveissuedasteadystreamofproductannouncements,suchas:

• Earlyleaders,likeFDPBrake,Honeywell,andWilliams,announcedcopper-freeproductlinesassoonas2010(Honeywellundated;FDPBrake2010-2012;Williamsundated).

• Startingin2010,manufacturerslikeBendixandTRWLucaswithexistingcopper-freeproductsincludedthelackofcopperasaproductbenefitinpromotions(Fastmagna.com2010;Bendix2012).

• By2012,copper-freeproductswerebeingtestedbyvehiclemanufacturersforuseinnewandupdatedvehicles.MajorEuropeanmanufacturerBrembo’s2012AnnualReportdescribedvehiclemanufactureracceptanceofthecompany’scopper-freeformulations(Brembo2013).FederalMogul’sproductswereacceptedbymultiplevehiclemanufacturers(FederalMogul2013).

• In2012,bothHoneywellandFederalMogulannouncedlinesoflowcopperandcopper-freebrakepads,bothseekingtobeamongthefirstmajormanufacturerstomarketfulllinesofcopper-freeproducts(FederalMogul2013,Honeywell2013).InOctober2014,Federal-Mogulannouncedarelatedbrakepadlinefortrucks(GreenCarCongress2014).

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• Inlate2014,oneoftheworld’slargestbrakefrictionmanufacturers,BoschAutoParts,2announcedtheavailabilityofcopper-freebrakepadsinitsmajorproductlines.Italsoannouncedplansfortransitiontocopper-freeformulationsforproductsservingallU.S.domestic,Asian,andEuropeanvehiclesyearsaheadofregulatorydeadlines(BoschAutoParts2014;AutoServiceProfessional2015).

Reflectingthesedevelopments,oneofthemajorthemesoftheSocietyofAutomotiveEngineers2014BrakeColloquium&Exhibition(BurlingameCaliforniaSeptember2014)wasthetransitiontocopper-freebrakepads.Manufacturersadvertisednewlinesofcopperfreebrakefrictionmaterials,suppliersofferedformulationingredientstosupportthetransitiontocopper-freeformulations,andpresentationstoldthestoriesofbrakefrictionmaterialmanufacturer(e.g.Akebono)andautomobilemanufacturer(e.g.,Ford,Chrysler)programsunderwaytotransitionawayfromhighcopperbrakepads.Theemphasiswasoncopper-free,ratherthan<5%copperbrakepads,andaworldwidescopeforindustrybrakepadcoppereliminationprograms,whichsimplifiesproductmanagementandregulatorycomplianceforthediverseinternationalsupplychainsinthevehicleindustry.

2AccordingtoBosch,oneofeverythreevehiclesontheroadcontainsaBoschbrakingcomponent(AutoServiceProfessional2015).

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Section2:SummaryofAvailableInformation

Thissectionsummarizestheavailableinformationthatformsthebasisforthebrakecopperreductionestimates.

2.1 Brake Pad Copper Reduction Schedule

In1999,theBrakeManufacturer’sCouncilcommittedtooffernewlow-copperbrakepadmaterialstocustomerswithin5yearsofanyBPPdecisionthatbrakepadsareamajorcoppersource(Lawrence1999).ThiscommitmentwastriggeredbytheBPPinlate2008.AsdiscussedinSection1,manymanufacturersarecurrentlyofferinglowcopperandcopper-freebrakepadstocustomers.ThetimelinesinCaliforniaSB346andWashingtonstatelawprovidedeightyearsafterthe2013reformulationcommitmentforvehiclemanufacturerstore-engineerallvehicleplatformstoincorporatethenewbrakepadformulations(BPP1996-2012).Thistimeframewasspecificallyselectedtoallowvehiclemanufacturerstocompletetherequiredbrakesystemre-engineeringinconjunctionwiththeirregularre-engineeringofvehicleplatforms.Bothlawsprovideforasecondoverlappingvehiclere-engineeringcycletoreachthe20250.5%copperstandard,whichrequiredtechnologythatwasnotinsightwhenthelawswereadoptedin2010(butthatisnowcommerciallyavailableasdocumentedabove).InformationsummarizedinSection1showsthatthetransitiontothelowestcopperbrakepadsisproceedinginaccordancewiththeprocessanticipatedbytheBPP–andperhapsevenmorequicklythanthewasanticipated.

2.2 Brake Pad Copper Content

ThroughtheBPP,brakepadmanufacturersreportedbrakepadcoppercontentannuallyfrom1998-2006forthehighestsalesvolumenewvehicles(BPP2008).In2006,originalequipmentbrakepadscontainedanestimatedoverallaverageof8.2%copperbyweight.Thisaveragerepresentsamixtureofhigh-copperbrakepads(10-20%copper)andbrakepadswithnointentionallyaddedcopper.In2008,manufacturerscollectedformulationtypedatatoestimatethefractionofthemarketcomposedofno-copperbrakepads(Phipps2008).BecausetheBPPreportingcoveredonlyoriginalequipmentbrakepads(thosesoldonnewvehicles),theBPPdevelopedaseparateestimateofthecoppercontentinaftermarket(replacement)brakepads(Rosselot2009).

TomeetcertificationrequirementsunderWashingtonStatelaw,whichareslightlydifferentthanthoseinCalifornia,brakepadmanufacturersmustprovidelaboratoryreportsdocumentingtestingofeachcertifiedbrakepadformulationtothestate.Thesedataarecurrentlythebestavailableinformationaboutbrakepadcoppercontent.WashingtonDepartmentofEcologycompilesthesecoppercontentdataquarterlyandpoststheaveragebrakepadcoppercontentontheInternet(WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2015a).Becausesalesvolumesarenotreported,WashingtonDepartmentofEcologyassumesthateachformulahasanequalchanceofbeingused(WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2015a).

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TheWashingtondatarevealthatsignificantcopperreductionshavealreadyoccurredascomparedtotheBPPestimateandWashington’sownbaselinedata(seeTable5).

Table5.AverageManufacturedBrakePadCopperContent,2006-2015

DateAverageCopperContent

ReductionComparedtoBPP2006Estimate

ReductionComparedto

Washington2011Baseline

Source

2006 8.2%* -- -- BPP20082011

(WashingtonBaseline)

7.2% 16% --WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2013

July1,2014 6.4% 22% 11% WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2015a

July1,2015 5.6% 32% 22% WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2015a

*OriginalEquipmentbrakepadsonly

Basedonthedataforthe4,862brakepadformulationscertifiedasofJuly1,2015,3averagecoppercontentforeachcertificationlevelwascalculated.TheresultsareinTable6andFigure3.4Washingtonalsorequireda“baseline”reportprovidingestimatedcoppercontentofbrakepadssoldin2011(WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2013).Forthebaselinereport,Washingtondidnotrequirechemicalmeasurements—justestimatesbasedonmanufacturerformulations.Thebaselinereportcoveredfarfewerformulations(1,720)than2015reporting.ThesedataaresummarizedinTable7.

Forthebaselinereportingonly,Washingtonrequiredmanufacturerstoidentifybrakepadsusedfor“heavyduty”vehicles(i.e.,largetrucks).Thesedata,whenseparatelyanalyzedandcorrectedbasedoninformationfromtheSocietyofAutomotiveEngineers,showedarelativelylow0.5%averagecoppercontentfortruckbrakes(WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2013).5

The2011baselineestimateshadalmostthesameaveragecoppercontentasthe2015measureddata(Table6)forbrakepadsthatwouldhavefallenintheAandBcertificationlevels,butaloweraverageforformulationsthatwouldhavefallenintheNcertificationlevel.Thislattervaluemayreflectthepresenceofthenunknowntracecopperinnon-copperingredients.3AnanonymizedversionofthesedatawereprovidedbyWashingtonEcology.4Thesevaluesaresimilartopriorassumptions—A(10%),B(4%),N(0.1%)—thatwerebasedoninformalestimatesfromtheBrakePadPartnership(Moran2013).5Thisexcludesformulationsforrarelyusedtruckdiscbrakes(WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2013).

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Figure3.AverageBrakePadCopperContentbyCertificationLevel

Table6.AverageBrakePadCopperContentbyCertificationLevel,July2015

CertificationLevel AverageCopperContent FractionofCertifiedFormulations

A 13% 39%B 2.7% 18%N 0.05% 43%ALL 5.6% 100%

Source:WashingtonEcologydataforbrakepadformulationscertifiedasofJuly1,2015.

Table7.AverageEstimatedBrakePadCopperContent2011

CopperContentCategory

AverageEstimatedCopperContent(AllFormulations)

AverageEstimatedCopperContent(ExcludingHeavy

Duty)

FractionofReportedFormulations

(ExcludingHeavyDuty)

>5%(ALevel) 13% 13% 52%

<5%and≥0.5%(Blevel)

2.9% 3% 13%

<0.5%(Nlevel)

0.02% 0.003% 35%

ALL 6% 7.2% 100%Source:WashingtonEcologybaselinebrakepadcoppercontentreporting.

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TheWashingtondatasetrepresentsallvehiclebrakepadsthatmaylegallybesoldinWashingtonState.Becausemanufacturersdonotreport(andtreatasconfidential)salesdataforeachcertifiedbrakepadformulation,theWashingtondatacannotaccountforeachformulation’smarketshare.Consequently,thedatarepresentanaverageofallavailableformulations,nottheaveragecontentofbrakepadssold.

2.3 Brake Pad Replacement Frequency

Brakepadmaterialwearsoffgraduallyoverthelifetimeofthepad.TosupporttheworkoftheBPP,manufacturerssharedproprietarymarketsurveydatacharacterizingthereplacementfrequenciesoforiginalequipmentandaftermarketbrakepads(BPP1996-2012;AAIA2008).Thesedatashowedthatonaverage,originalequipmentbrakepadsarereplacedwhenavehicleis3-4yearsold.Becauseoldervehiclesaredrivenfewermilesperyear(FHWA2009;Santos2011),theiraftermarketbrakepadsareonlyreplacedatarateofabout21%peryear(AAIA2008).

2.4 Vehicle Fleet Characterization

TheCaliforniaDepartmentofFinanceperiodicallypublishessummariesofvehicleregistrationdata.Themostrecentdatawerepublishedin2009(DOF2009).Thesesummariesprovidevehicleagedistributionsandthefractionofvehicleregistrationsbytype(light-duty,heavy-duty,motorcycle,trailer).Inadditiontothesedata,informationfromtheSouthernCaliforniaAssociationofGovernments’transportationmonitoringandinformationsystem(SCAG2012),WashingtonState(WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2013),andtheBPP(BPP1996-2012andRosselot2010)providethebasisforassumingthatneglectingcontributionsfromheavydutyvehicles(i.e.largetrucks),motorcycles,andtrailerswillnotintroducesignificanterrorinthecopperreductionestimate.

2.5 Brake Pad Copper in Urban Runoff

TheBPPcompletedpeer-reviewedscientificstudiestocharacterizebrakepademissions(BMCPEC2006;Haselden2004;Schlautman2006),examineallenvironmentalcoppersources(Rosselot2006a;Rosselot2006b),anddevelopquantitativeestimatesofthebrakepadcoppercontributiontototalstormwatercopperloadsusinglinkedairandwatershedmodels(Pun2006a;Pun2006b;Donigian2007;Donigian2009).TheBPP’s“UpperColma”modelingwatershedisthemosturbanizedamongthewatershedsconsideredinBPPmodeling.Itbestrepresentsurbanrunoff,whichwasnotseparatelymodeled.Itisalsomostlikeotherhighlyurbanizedwatershedsacrossthestatebecauseofitscombinationofhighurbanization,hightrafficlevels,andlocationsurroundedbyotherurbanareas.Inthiswatershed,brakepadcopperwasestimatedtocompose58-66%oftotalanthropogeniccopper.

BPPmodelingestimatedwatershedresponsetimetobrakepadcopperreductions(Donigian2009).Forurbanrunoff,responsetimecanreasonablyassumedtobe

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similartotheBPP’sestimatesforresponsetimesinhighlyurbanizedwatershedswithconcretelinedchannels.Inthemosthighlyimperviouswatersheds,theBPPestimatedwatershedresponsetimesarerelativelyquick,with>70%copperreductionsestimatedthefirstyearafterachangeinbrakepadreformulationandnearly90%reductionin5years.Concretechannelswerefoundtofurtherreducewatershedresponsetimes.Responsetimesinsurfacewatersreceivingurbanrunoffdependonsite-specificfactorslikechannellength,shape,channelbottommaterial,andsedimentloads(Donigian2009).

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Section3:ComputationalAssumptions

Thecopperreductionestimatesrelyonaseriesofreasonableassumptionsthatweredevelopedonthebasisofavailableinformation,includingthebrakepad-specificinformationsummarizedinSection2.TheseassumptionsaredetailedinTables8-14.

Table8.OriginalEquipmentBrakePadCopperReductionScheduleAssumptions

Assumption Basis ReferencesByJanuary1,2021,alloriginalequipmentbrakepadswillcontainlessthan5%copper.ByJanuary1,2025,alloriginalequipmentbrakepadswillcontainlessthan0.5%copper

RequirementsofCaliforniaSB346 CaliforniaSB346

Extensionrequestsfor0.5%copperrequirementwillberelativelylimited.

Difficultyofextensionprocessandshorttimeframeforeachextension,longtimeframefordevelopmentofalternatives,industrypressandinformalcommunicationsindicatingthatalternativesarebecomingavailable.

CaliforniaSB346;BPP1996-2012;sourcesinSection1

Lowercopperbrakepadswillbephasedinonnewvehiclesataconstantrateoveran8-yearperiodpriortoeachcompliancedeadline.

Estimatesfrombrakepadandvehiclemanufacturers,whohaveconsistentlyexplainedthattheyplantointroducenewbrakepadswhencompletingthecyclicalre-engineeringofvehicleplatforms.Industrypressandbrakepadmanufacturerannouncementshavebeenconsistentwiththestatementsmadeduringdevelopmentoflegislation.

MEMA2010;BPP1996-2012;sourcesinSection1

WashingtonStatewillrequirenewvehiclebrakepadstocontainlessthan0.5%copperbyJanuary1,2025(samescheduleasCalifornia).

WashingtonStatelawestablishesthesamecompliancedateasCalifornialawforbrakepads<5%copper,butdoesnotestablishafirmdateforrequiringbrakepads<0.5%copper.Washingtonmustconductareviewandmustfindthat<0.5%copperpadsare“available”(asdefinedunderWashingtonlaw)tosetthecompliancedate.Washington’sreviewwilloccurin2016basedonapreliminarydeterminationissuedinlate2015.Washington’sreviewprocessanddecisionwilltake1-2years,afterwhichmanufacturerswillhave8yearstocomply,settinguptimingforimplementationon1/1/25,concurrentwithCaliforniaimplementation.TheindustryandthetwostateshaveworkedtoharmonizetheimplementationoftheCaliforniaandWashingtonlaws.

WashingtonState2010;WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2015b;sourcesinSection1

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Table9.Aftermarket*BrakePadCopperReductionScheduleAssumptions

Assumption Basis ReferencesNon-compliantreplacementbrakepadsforpre-2021andpre-2025vehiclesmaybesoldindefinitely.

ProvisionofCaliforniaSB346 CaliforniaSB346

UnderWashingtonstatelaw,startingonJanuary1,2021,allnewlymanufacturedreplacementbrakepadsmustcontainlessthan5%copper.Non-compliantreplacementbrakepadsmanufacturedpriortoJanuary1,2021maybesolduntilDecember31,2030.Non-compliantreplacementbrakepadsmaybesoldindefinitely,butonlyiftheyareidenticaltooriginalequipmentbrakepads.

WashingtonStatelaw WashingtonState2010;WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2012

WashingtonState’sexemptionfororiginalequipmentbrakepadsthatareidenticaltotheonessoldwiththenewvehiclewillhaveonlyasmalleffect.

Originalequipmentservice(replacement)padsthatareidenticaltotheonessoldwiththevehiclecomposeaverysmallfractionofthemarketbecauseforcostreasons,evenvehicledealersswitchfromthesepadstolowercostvehiclemanufacturerapprovedservicepadsafewyearslater.VehiclemanufacturersprotestedthenarrownatureofthisexemptionduringdevelopmentofWashington’slegislationanditsregulations,buttheAutomotiveAftermarketIndustryAssociationsupportedit.

BPP1996-2012

Recognizingthatbrakepadsaleslagbehindshipmentsofnewproductsduetotheinventory“turntime”inthebrakepadsupplychain,only45%ofbrakepadssoldinagivenyearareshippedinthatyear.Theremainingsalesarecomposedofbrakepadsshippedinthepreviousyear(30%)andbrakepadsshippedtwoyearsprior(25%).

Atypicalreplacementbrakepadinventory“turntime”is<2years.Somelowvolumepadsmaybeheldininventoriesforaslongastenyears.Inventorycarryingcostsholddowninventoryvolumes.Brakepadinventoryturntimeislongerthanotherretailinventoryturntimesbecauseoftheplethoraofvehiclemodelsandsomemanufacturers’historiclackofstandardizationofpartsacrossvehiclemodels.

BPP1996-2012

Replacementbrakepadsforvehiclesmanufacturedwithlowcopperbrakepadswillalsobelowincopper,evenifthevehicleismanufacturedpriortocompliancedeadlines.

Brakingperformancewillbemosteasilymatchedwithlowercopperformulations.

BPP1996-2012

*Replacement

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Table9.AftermarketBrakePadCopperReductionScheduleAssumptions(Continued)

Assumption Basis ReferencesReplacementbrakepadscontaininglowerlevelscopperthataredesignedforvehiclesmanufacturedwithhighcopperbrakepadsarephasinginataconstantratestartingin2014.TheendofthephaseinperiodwillbedeterminedbyWashington’scompliancedeadlines.

Sincesafetystandardapplytonewvehicles—andnottobrakepads—thereisnospecificregulatoryconstraintonaftermarketbrakepadformulations.Driversfortheaftermarketincludecost,safety,andcustomeracceptance.Sincecopperisanexpensiveingredient,costconsiderationspointtowardearlyreformulation.Aftermarketmanufacturershaveahistoryofmakingproductsavailabletofitnewvehicleswithinafewmonthsofthevehicle’sinitialmanufacture,suggestingthattheywillmakeproductsavailableonaschedulethatphasesinoverthesamegeneraltimeperiodasthephaseinfororiginalequipmentbrakepads.Pressreleasesandindustrywebsitesindicatethatbrakepadscontaining<5%copperandbrakepadscontaininglessthan0.5%arebothalreadyavailable.Manufacturersmaybelessmotivatedtointroducenewproductsforoldvehicles,whichpresenttheneedtodesignpadswithcharacteristicssimilartothoseprovidedbyhighcopperbrakepads.

BPP1996-2012;sourcesinSection1

Table10.BrakePadReplacementAssumptions

Assumption Basis ReferencesOriginalequipmentbrakepadsarereplacedwhenvehicleis3.5yearsold.

Brakepadsaretypicallyreplacedafter3-4yearsofservice,afterabout35,000-40,000milesofdriving.

BPP1996-2012

Vehiclesmorethan3.5yearsoldhavetheirbrakepadsreplacedonceevery5years.

AutomotiveAftermarketIndustryAssociationsurveydataoftheaftermarketindicatethat20-22%ofvehiclesmorethan3yearsoldhavetheirbrakepadsreplacedeachyear.Oldervehicleslikelyhavealowerbrakepadreplacementratethannewvehiclesbecausevehiclemilestraveledfallswithvehicleage.

AAIA2008;BPP1996-2012;FHWA2009;Santos2011

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Table11.BrakePadCopperContentAssumptions

Assumption Basis ReferencesIn2013,vehiclebrakepads—includingbothoriginalequipmentandaftermarket—containedanaverageof7.2%copperbyweight.

WashingtonEcologybrakecertificationbaselinedataset(2011brakepads)forlight-dutyvehicles.

WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2013

In2013,vehiclebrakepads—includingbothoriginalandaftermarket—containedcopperasfollows:• 52%contained>5%

copper,averaging13%copperbyweight

• 13%containedbetween5%and0.5%copper,averaging3%copperbyweight

• 35%contained<0.5%copper,averaging0.05%copperbyweight

WashingtonEcologybrakecertificationbaselinedataset(2011brakepads)forlight-dutyvehicles(Table6).Measuredvaluesfromthe2015datasetareusedforthe<0.05%copperbrakepadsbecausethe2011estimatedvaluesdidnotappeartoaccountfortracecopperinnon-copperingredients.

WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2013;WashingtonEcologydataforbrakepadformulationscertifiedasofJuly1,2015

Brakepadsmeetingthe<5%copperrequirementwillcontainanaverageof2.7%copperbyweight.Brakepadsmeetingthe<0.5%copperrequirementwillcontainanaverageof0.05%copperbyweight.

WashingtonEcologybrakecertification2015data(SeeTable5).Futureformulationsareassumedtocontinuetohavesimilarconcentrations.Duetovariationinmaterialsinputandmanufacturingprocessesforbrakepads(whichareheterogeneousmaterials),toensurecompliance,productsarebeingdesignedwithcoppercontentwellbelowcompliancelevels.Sincecopperreportedlydoesnotserveausefuldesignpurposebelow1%concentrations,brakepadscontaininglessthan0.5%copperlikelyonlycontaintracecopperintroducedviaimpuritiesinotheringredients(e.g.,recycledmetals).

WashingtonEcologydataforbrakepadformulationscertifiedasofJuly1,2015

BrakePadcoppercontentreportedtoWashingtonStateisthesameasCaliforniabrakepadcoppercontent.

ThebrakepadmarketplacecoversallofnorthAmerica.Distributionchannelsdonotdifferentiatebrakepadsbystate.WashingtonEcologyadvisedmanufacturersthatdidnotknowwhichstatestheirproductsweresoldintoreportonallproductssoldinNorthAmerica.EcologybelievesmostmanufacturersreportedforallproductssoldinNorthAmerica.

BPP1996-2012,U.S.EPAandco-signers2015;WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2013

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Table12.VehicleFleetAssumptions

Assumption Basis ReferencesTheagedistributionofCalifornia’svehiclefleetwillremainessentiallythesameasthedistributionin2007

Noavailableinformationsuggeststhatfuturedistributionswillchangedramatically.Thegyrationsinvehiclesalesvolumesduringtheeconomicdownturnappeartohaveended.Californiahasceasedpreparationofvehicleregistrationreports;noalternativepublicdatasourcewasidentified.

DOF2009.TableJ3:“DistributionOfFee-PaidRegistrationsByTypeAndYearFirstRegisteredCalifornia,2007.”

Heavy-duty(truck)brakecoppercontributionsaresmall.

Truckshavelargerbrakepads,butsinceconsumeracceptanceissues(noise,brakingcomfort)thathavedrivencopperinuseinvehiclesarenotpresentinthismarketanddiscbrakes(whichtypicallyhavehighercoppercontent)areuncommonintheU.S.heavy-dutyvehiclemarket,copperuseisrelativelylow,onaverageabout0.5%,whichis<10%ofaveragecopperconcentrationsinlight-dutyvehicles.Heavy-dutytruckscomposearelativelysmallfractionoftotalCaliforniaurbanVMT,e.g.,SCAGvehiclemilestraveled(VMT)datashowtrucksrepresentlessthan3.5%oftotalvehiclemilestraveledinLosAngelesCounty.WashingtonEcologyestimatedthattruckbrakescomposed<10%ofcopperreleases.

SCAG2012;Gilroy2011;BPP1996-2012;WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2013

Motorcyclecontributionsaresmall

Motorcycleswereestimatedtobe<1%ofstatewidebrakepadcopperemissionsbytheBPP.WashingtonEcologyestimatedmotorcycleemissionsrepresent<0.1%oftotalstatewidebrakepadcopperemissions.

Rosselot2010;WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2013

Trailercontributionsaresmall

Trailerscompriselessthan10%oftotalCaliforniavehicleregistrations.Trailersprobablyrepresentarelativelysmallportionofthevehiclemilestraveledandareprimarilyusedonheavy-dutytrucks(seeabove)andforrecreationalpurposes.

DOF2009.TableJ5:“RegistrationofMotorVehiclesandTrailerswhichPaidFeesbyTypeofVehicleCalifornia,1971to2007”

OthervehicletypesexemptedfromCaliforniaSB346releasenegligiblequantitiesofcopper

BrakePadPartnershipinformalanalysis BPP1996-2012

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Table13.VehicleMilesTraveled(VMT)Assumptions

Assumption Basis ReferencesBrakepadwearisproportionaltoVMT

InformationprovidedbybrakepadmanufacturerstotheBrakePadPartnership.

Phipps2006

VMTwillnotchangesignificantlyincomingyears.

FutureVMTtrendsoverthenexttwodecadesareuncertain,dependingonfactors—includingpublicpolicyactions—thatcannotbepredictedtoday.VMTpeakedinthemid-2000s,signalinganapparentmajorshiftinmobilitybehavior.WhileVMTreboundedin2014-15,itremainsbelowthepriorpeak.Long-termprojectionsarehighlyuncertain.Increasinggasolinepricesandlegislation,regulation,andplanningactivitiestoreduceVMTbecauseofclimatechangecouldstabilize—andmayactuallyreduce—futureVMT.

Hymel2014;SCAG2012;Caltrans2015

Therelativefractionofvehiclemilestraveledonhighways(ascomparedtocitystreets)willnotchangesignificantlyincomingyears.

BrakePadmanufacturerdatashowthatbrakepadwearratesoncitystreetsare5-10timesgreaterthanemissionsonhighways,duetoloweruseofbrakepadspermiletraveledonhighways.Aslongastherelativeproportionofvehiclemilestraveledonthesestwotypesofroaddoesnotchange,thisdoesnotaffectloadestimates.

Phipps2006

Table14.UrbanRunoffAssumptions

Assumption Basis ReferencesUrbanRunoffCopperFraction=62%

Inthemosthighlyurbanizedwatersheds,brakepadcopperrepresents58-66%oftotalanthropogeniccopper.

Donigian2009

Urbanrunoffwatershedresponsetime=1year

UrbanrunoffresponsetimesareassumedtoberepresentedbythemosthighlyimperviousSanFranciscoBayarea(California)watershedsthatweremodeledbytheBPP.Inthesewatersheds,responsetimeisestimatedtoberelativelyquick,with>70%copperreductionsestimatedthefirstyearafterbrakepadreformulationandnearly90%reductionin5years.Modelingsuggeststhatchannelizedwatersheds,whichcouldbeconsideredakintopipedstormdrains,experienceaslightlyquickerwashoutperiodthanthenaturalchannelsmodeledintheSanFranciscoBayarea,California.Weatherintroducesuncertaintyintopredictedcopperreductionschedules.Wetweatherandlargestormsmobilizecopperinwatersheds,increasingthespeedofcopperreductions.Dryyearsreducethewashout,increasingthelengthoftimethatittakesforbrakepadcopperreductionstobefullyreflectedinwaterways.Modelersfoundthatdrywateryearscenariosslightlyincreasedwashouttime,byatmostafewyears.Theseresponsetimesareonlyforurbanrunoff;responsetimesinsurfacewatersdependonmultiplefactorsthatcannotbeestimatedgenerically.

Donigian2009

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Section4:BrakePadCopperReductionScenarios

Thefollowingthreescenariosweredevelopedonthebasisofavailableinformationtobrackettherangeofpotentialratesofbrakepadcopperreduction.Eachscenarioisbasedonadifferentpotentialpathwayforthemarkettransitiontothebrakepadscontaininglessthan0.5%copper.ThethirdscenariohastwovariantstoexaminetheimplicationsofpotentialmanufacturerresponsesifWashingtonDepartmentofEcologyabandonsitsprecedentforhandlingexemptionswhenmakingitsdecisionaboutimplementationofrequirementsthatallbrakepadscontain<0.5%copper.

Scenario 1 – One-Step Reduction

Virtuallyalloriginalequipment(newvehicle)andaftermarket(replacement)brakepadsarereformulatedto<0.5%copperbyJanuary1,2021(firstCaliforniaSB346coppercompliancedeadline).Virtuallyallaftermarketbrakepadscontaininghighercopperlevelsthatremainindistributorandretailerinventoriesaresoldwithintwoyearsofthisdate.

Brakepad,brakesystems,andnewvehiclemanufacturerswouldgreatlyreducetheirengineeringcostsforthetransitiontolowcopperbrakepadsiftheycanmovedirectlytobrakepadswithlessthan0.5%copper.Thisscenariodescribesthecopperreductionsthatwouldoccurifbrakepadmanufacturerscompleteproductreformulationinasinglecycle,thusavoidingtworoundsofre-engineeringoftheirproductsandtheirmanufacturingprocesses.Theprimarybasisforthisscenarioistheassumptionthatallmanufacturerscanquicklydevelopproductscontaininglessthan0.5%copperthatmeetallmanufacturing,cost,andcustomerrequirements.

AsSection1details,thereissomeevidencesuggestingthatthisscenariomayoccur.Majorvehiclemanufacturersarerequestingthatsuppliersprovidebrakepadswithlessthan0.5%copperfortheirnewvehiclemodels.Brakepadmanufacturersarecurrentlybringingtomarketbothoriginalequipmentandaftermarketbrakepadlineswithlessthan0.5%copper.Someoftheselinesarespecificallydesignedtoreplicatethebrakingperformancepropertiesofhighercopperformulations.Foraftermarketbrakepads,thisscenarioassumesthatWashingtonStaterequirementswilldrivethemarkettransition.UnlikeCalifornialaw,Washingtonlawhasverynarrowexemptionsforaftermarketbrakepads(WashingtonState2010).Duetothecomplexityofbrakepaddistributionchains,ifhighercopperbrakepadsenternationaldistributionsystemsafterWashington’scompliancedeadlines,manufacturersandretailerswillhavetroubleavoidingnon-compliancewithWashingtonrequirements(BPP2008-2010).Consequently,brakemanufacturershavestatedtheirintenttoimplementbrakepadcopperreductionsnationally(U.S.EPAandco-signers2015;MEMA2012a).

TheprimaryexemptionforaftermarketbrakepadsunderWashingtonlawisanallowancefor“inventoryrunoff”ofbrakepadsmanufacturedpriortothecompliancedeadline(WashingtonState2010).Toensurecompliance,brakepadmanufacturedatemustbemarkedonpads;thisdatemarkingispartofthe

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nationwidebrakepadcompliancemarkingsystem(SAE2012).Typicalreplacementbrakepadinventoryturnovertimeislessthantwoyears(BPP1996-2012).Thus,aftertwoyears,mostbrakepadsmorethantwoyearsoldhavebeensold.

Anotherconsiderationfortheaftermarketisthatcopperisfarmoreexpensivethanotherbrakepadingredients(BPP1996-2012).Sincepriceistheprimarycustomerinterestintheaftermarket,manufacturershaveafinancialincentivetoeliminatecopperinaftermarketbrakepads,particularlynowthathighercoppercontentisnolongerperceivedasapositiveattribute.

Thisscenarioalsomayavoidtheneedforpurchaseofspecialchemicalanalysisequipmentformanufacturerstomonitorproductsforcompliancewiththe5%copperstandard.Inbrakepadmaterials(frictionmaterials),copperconcentrationmeasurementsaround5%copperposeuniquechemicalanalysischallengesthatdonotoccuratthe0.5%level(BPP1996-2012).Developingmanufacturingprocesscontrolsforthiscopperconcentrationwouldcausemanufacturerstoincurone-timecoststhathaveonlyshort-termbenefits.Theprimaryshortcomingsofthisscenarioare:

(1) Somemanufacturersmaynotsuccessfullydevelopbrakepadscontaininglessthan0.5%copperthatmeetallmanufacturing,cost,andcustomerrequirementssoonenoughtotransitionalloftheirproductsbytheabovedates.

(2) Somemanufacturersmaydelaytransitionsuntillegaldeadlines.

(3) WashingtonStatemightprovidebroaderexemptionswhenitimplementsitsrequirementforbrakepadstocontainlessthan0.5%copper,delayingtheaftermarkettransitiontothelowestcopperbrakepads.

Thisscenarioisoptimistic.Itisincludedtoshowtheearliestreasonabledatesforachievementofbrakecopperreductions.

Scenario 2 – Two-Step Reduction

Virtuallyalloriginalequipment(newvehicle)brakepadsarereformulatedto<5%copperbyJanuary1,2021and<0.5%copperby2025(CaliforniaSB346compliancedeadlines),withminimaluseofexemptionsandextensions.Virtuallyallhighercopperaftermarket(replacement)brakepadsremainingininventoriesaresoldwithintwoyearsofeachcompliancedate.

Thisscenarioassumesthatbrakepadmanufacturerswillimplementatwo-steptransitiontothelowestcopperbrakepads,basedonlegaldeadlines.Underthisscenario,inthefirststepmanufacturerswouldreplacecurrenthighcopperproductswithproductscontaininglessthan5%copper.Themajorityofmanufacturerswoulddelayintroductionofproductswithlessthan0.5%copperforseveralyears,whichwouldprovideadditionaltimefordevelopmentofformulationscontaininglessthan0.5%copper.

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The5%standardisincludedinCaliforniaandWashingtonlawsbecausewhenthelawswereadopted,brakepadmanufacturersindicatedthatmostcompanieswerecapableofproducingbrakepadsmeetingthe5%standard(BPP2008-2010).Thelongtransitiontimeprovidedinthelawsbeforeallnewvehiclesarerequiredtomeetthe5%standardwastoprovideadequatetimeforre-engineeringofthebrakingsystemsofeverynewvehiclethatcurrentlyuseshighercopperbrakepads(MEMA2010).Whenthelawswerepassed,manufacturersindicatedthatcompanieswouldneedtodevelopnewformulationapproachestoformulatebrakepadswithlessthan0.5%copperwhilemeetingallmanufacturing,cost,andcustomerrequirements.CaliforniaSB346providedanadditionalfouryearsafterthe5%standardtakeseffecttoprovideextratimeformanufacturerstodevelopthenewformulationapproaches.

CaliforniaSB346wasdesignedtoallowvehiclemanufacturerstore-engineervehiclebrakesystemsconcurrentwiththeirotherperiodicvehicleplatformre-engineering,whichoccursaboutonceevery8yearsformostvehicles(BPP2008;MEMA2010).Beforeanewlyre-engineeredbrakesystemreachesthemarket,thebrakesgothroughseveralyearsofengineeringdesign,productvalidations,andperformanceandsafetytestingbybrakepadmanufacturersandvehiclemanufacturers(BPP2008;MEMA2010).ThetimelinesinCaliforniaSB346providedabout4yearsfortheseactivitiestobeconductedinparallelwithformulationdevelopment(2010-2013),priortothesalesofthefirstre-engineeredlessthan5%copperbrakepadnewvehicles,whichunderthisscenario,wasassumedtooccur—andindeeddidoccur—nolaterthan2014.Becausethecompliancedeadlineforbrakepadswithlessthen0.5%copperisonlyfouryearsafterthe5%deadline,within4yearsoftheintroductionofthelessthan5%copperbrakepadvehicles(2018),underthisscenario,manufacturersareassumedtobeginintroducingvehicleswithlessthan0.5%copperbrakepadsby2018soastocompletelyre-engineerallvehiclestomeetthe0.5%standardby2025.

Althoughtheoriginalequipmentbrakepadindustryappearstobeattemptingtomovedirectlytothelowestcopperbrakepads,itappears,basedonpublicinformationsummarizedinSection1,thatafewcompaniesarecurrentlybringingbrakepadslessthan5%copperbutmorethan0.5%coppertothemarketinordertoprovidecustomerswithimmediateaccesstolowercopperbrakepads.Thefractionoftheoverallbrakepadmarketthatmakesatwo-steptransitionwilllargelybedeterminedbythesuccessofeachcompany’sproductformulatorsindevelopinglessthan0.5%productsthatmeettheircompany’sandcustomer’smanufacturing,cost,andperformancerequirements.Foraftermarketbrakepads,thisscenarioisbasedontheassumptionthatWashingtonStaterequirementswilldrivetheaftermarkettransition.

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Theprimaryshortcomingsofthisscenarioare:

(1) Thisscenarioisnotconsistentwithearlyevidencesuggestingthattheoriginalequipmentbrakepadindustryappearstobeattemptingtomovedirectlytothelowestcopperbrakepads(seeSection1).

(2) WashingtonStatemightprovidebroaderexemptionswhenitimplementsitsrequirementforbrakepadstocontainlessthan0.5%copper,delayingtheaftermarkettransitiontothelowestcopperbrakepads.

Scenario 3 – Aftermarket Exemption from 0.5% Copper Standard

Virtuallyalloriginalequipment(newvehicle)brakepadsarereformulatedto<5%copperbyJanuary1,2021and<0.5%copperby2025(CaliforniaSB346compliancedeadlines),withminimaluseofexemptionsandextensions.Highercopperaftermarket(replacement)brakepadsforvehiclesmanufacturedpriortocompliancedatescontinuetobesoldindefinitely.

Variant3A:Sincetheaftermarketexemptionforoldervehiclesisbasedonthepremisethataftermarketbrakepadsshouldbedesignedtobesimilartotheoriginalequipmentbrakepads,thisvariantassumesthataftermarketbrakepadsforpre-2025vehiclesthatoriginallyhavelowcopperorcopperfreebrakepadswillhavethesamecoppercontentastheoriginals.Variant3B:SincetheCalifornialaw’saftermarketexemptiondoesnotrequireaftermarketbrakepadstobedesignedtobesimilartotheoriginalequipmentbrakepad,thisvariantassumesthataftermarketbrakepadinstallationsareunconstrainedbycoppercontent.Underthisscenario,coppercontentforpre-2025vehiclesremainsunchangedafter2025,i.e.,thataftermarketbrakepadscontaining<5%but>0.5%copper(“lowcopper”)continuetobeavailableindefinitelyforpre-2025vehicles.

LikeScenario2,thisscenarioassumesthatoriginalequipmentbrakepadmanufacturerswillimplementatwo-steptransitiontothelowestcopperbrakepadsinaccordancewiththecompliancedatesinCaliforniaSB346.WhereitdiffersfromScenario2isintheaftermarket.ThisscenarioassumesthatWashingtonStatedeviatesfromthepolicyinitscurrentlawandprovidesabroadaftermarketbrakepadexemptionsimilartotheexemptioninCaliforniaSB346whenitimplementsitsrequirementforbrakepadstocontainlessthan0.5%copper.TheexemptioninCaliforniaSB346isapermanentexemptionforallaftermarketbrakepadsdesignedtofitvehiclesmanufacturedpriortoCalifornia’scompliancedeadlinesin2021and2025.Suchanexemptionwoulddelaytheaftermarkettransitiontothelowestcopperbrakepadsbyallowinghighcopperreplacementbrakepadstobesoldforvehiclesmanufacturedpriortocompliancedeadlines.Underthisscenario,aftermarketbrakepadmanufacturerswouldmaintainthecurrentcoppercontentintheirbrakepadsthataremadeforuseinvehiclesmanufacturedpriorto2021and2025.Thiswouldavoidtheneedformanufacturerstodeveloplowercopperbrakepadsthatmeetthesameperformancecharacteristicsasthehighercopperbrakepads.Variant3Aassumesthatthe

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industryfollowsitsstateddesignpreferenceofreplacing“likeforlike”brakepadsintermsofcoppercontent.Variant3Bassumesthatthisstatedpracticeisnotfollowed,perhapsbecausecopper-freeandcoppercontainingreplacementbrakepadsofferthesameperformancecharacteristics.Thiswouldmeanthatbrakepadswithcoppercontent<5%but>0.5%tobeusedinpre-2025vehiclesuntilthosevehiclesarenolongerontheroad.

Theprimaryshortcomingsofthisscenarioare:(1) Thisscenarioisnotconsistentwithearlyevidencesuggestingthatthe

originalequipmentbrakepadindustryappearstobeattemptingtomovedirectlytothelowestcopperbrakepads(seeSection1).

(2) Whenestablishingregulatoryrequirements,statesordinarilyrelyontheprecedentsestablishedintheirstate’sownauthorizinglegislation.

Thisscenarioispessimistic.ItisincludedtoshowthelatestreasonabledatesforachievementofbrakecopperreductionsandtoprovideinsightintothewaterqualityimplicationsofWashingtonDepartmentofEcology’supcomingdecisionaboutpotentialrequirementsthatallbrakepadscontain<0.5%copper.

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Section5:Results

UsingtheassumptionsinSection3,copperreductionswereestimatedforthreescenarios.AnattachedExcelspreadsheetcontainsthedetailedcalculations.

5.1 Estimation Approach

Reductionestimatesweremadeusingthepercentreductionapproach,i.e.,estimatingreductioninthesource(brakepadcopper)andtranslatingthatsourcereductionintoitsassociatedurbanrunoffreduction.ThisstraightforwardapproachisbasedonBPPmodeling,whichuseddetailedestimatesofallurbanrunoffcoppersourcesandintricatemodelingtocreateanoverallaverageestimatedbrakepadcoppercontributiontototalcopperinrunofffromhighlyurbanizedwatersheds(Donigian2009).

Anotherpossibleapproachforestimatingbrakepadcopperreleasereductionsinvolvesestimatingtheaveragebrakepadwearrateandmultiplyingthisestimatewithestimatedbrakepadcoppercontent(the“composition/wear”approach).TheBPPexploredthisground-upapproach,butabandoneditduetothehighuncertaintiesintheinputdataforwearrate,whichvariestremendouslyamongon-roadvehiclesduetodifferencesinpadsizesamongvehicleclassesandvastlydifferentwearratesamongbrakepadformulations(Rosselot2006a).TheBPPalsoexploredathirdestimationapproachbasedonbrakepadparticleemissionfactorsmultipliedbyestimatedbrakepadcoppercontent(the“composition/emissionsfactor”approach,butabandonedthisaswellbasedonthehighuncertaintiesintheinputvalues.Ultimately,theBPPestimatedbrakepadcopperreleasesfromvehicleemissionsstudiesintunnels(wherefleetwideaveragereleasescanbecapturedandquantified)andbrakepadweardebrisdistributiondatafromBPPlaboratorytests(Rosselot2006a).TheBPP’sestimationapproach,involvedtwoseparateemissionsfactors–anairemissionsfactorandaroademissionsfactor–thatweresummedtoestimatetotalcopperemissions.Theairemissionsfactor(fromtheone-timevehicletunnelstudies),uniquelyandadvantageouslymeldedvehiclefleet-wideaveragecoppercontentandwearratesintoasinglevalue,reducinguncertainty.TheBPPfoundthatallthreemethodsyieldedrelativelysimilarcopperreleaseestimates.ThispercentreductionestimationapproachbasedonBPPmodelingprovidesbrakepadcoppercontentreductionsandestimatedcopperreductionsinurbanrunoff.Theseestimatesarenotnecessarilytranslatabledirectlyintosurfacewatercopperreductionestimates,astheydonotaccountforresponselagtimesinsurfacewaters,whichmaybeaffectedbyaccumulatedcopperfrompastbrakeandnon-brakedischarges,coppersourcesotherthanurbanrunoff,rainfallvolumesandintensity,andsite-specificwatershedconditionslikechannellength,shape,channelbottommaterial,andsedimentloads(Donigian2009).

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5.2 Results

Theestimatesincludethreesetsofvalues.First,theaveragecopperconcentrationinbrakepadsmanufacturedeachyearwasestimated.Usingthesedata,replacementrates,inventoryturnoverrates,andvehiclefleetagedata,theon-roadaveragebrakepadcopperconcentrationwasestimated.Finally,assumingthatlowercopperconcentrationsinon-roadbrakepadsaredirectlyproportionaltoreductioninbakepadcopper’scontributiontourbanrunoffcoppercontent,theurbanrunoffcopperreductionfrombrakepadsalonewasestimated.Toaccountforthewatershedlagtime,theurbanrunoffcopperreductionsareestimatedtooccuroneyearafterthebrakepadcopperreductions.BasedonBPPmodeling,themaximumurbanrunoffcopperreductionfrombrakepadsisabout61%.Figures4through7andtables15through18presenttheestimatedaverageon-roadbrakepadcoppercontent,theestimatedreductionascomparedto2013(baseline)levels,andtheestimatedsubsequentreductionincopperlevelsinurbanrunoff.Figures4and5includecoppercontentdatareportedtoWashingtonEcology(WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2015a).Figure5,whichfocusesonthecurrentdecade,showsthatactualreductiontrendsarefallingbetweenScenarios1and2,suggestingthatmanymanufacturersaremakingaone-stepreductiontothelowestcopperbrakepadformulations,insteadofcreating“low-copper”interimproducts.

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Figure4.AverageBrakePadCopperContentbyYearManufactured:ReportedDataComparedtoEstimates

Figure5.AverageBrakePadCopperContentbyYearManufactured:ReportedDataComparedtoEstimates(Baselinethrough2019)

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Figure6.On-RoadBrakePadCopperContentProjections

Figure7.UrbanRunoffCopperReductionProjections

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Table15.Scenario1–EstimatedCopperReductions

Year*

Scenario1–One-StepReduction

ManufacturedAverageBrakePadCopper

On-RoadAverageBrakePadCopper

EstimatedBrakePadCopperReduction

EstimatedUrbanRunoffCopperReductionfromBrakePadsAlone

Baseline(2013andprioryears) 7.2% 7.2% --

2014 6.2% 2015 5.4% 6.9% 4% 2016 4.5% 2.8%2017 3.6% 2018 2.7% 2019 1.8% 4.1% 44% 2020 0.9% 27.0%2021 0.05% 2022 0.05% 2023 0.05% 0.6% 92% 2024 0.05% 57.0%2025 0.05% 2026 0.05% 2027 0.05% 0.05% 99% 2028 0.05% 61.6%2029 0.05% 2030 0.05% 2031 0.05% 0.05% 99% 2032 61.6%

*Estimationyearsarehighlighted.

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Table16.Scenario2–EstimatedCopperReductions

Year*

Scenario2–Two-StepReduction






2014 6.5% 2015 5.8% 6.9% 3% 2016 5.1% 2.2%2017 4.5% 2018 3.6% 2019 2.7% 4.7% 34% 2020 1.8% 21.3%2021 0.9% 2022 0.7% 2023 0.5% 1.4% 80% 2024 0.3% 49.8%2025 0.05% 2026 0.05% 2027 0.05% 0.2% 97% 2028 0.05% 60.3%2029 0.05% 2030 0.05% 2031 0.05% 0.05% 99% 2032 61.6%


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Table17.Scenario3a–EstimatedCopperReductions

Year*

Scenario3a-AftermarketExemption(Like-for-LikeReplacement)

ManufacturedAverageBrakePadCopper**





2014 6.5% 2015 5.8% 6.9% 3% 2016 5.1% 2.2%2017 4.5% 2018 2019 2.6% 4.6% 36% 2020 22.1%2021 1.4% 2022 2023 1.1% 1.6% 77% 2024 47.9%2025 2026 2027 0.7% 0.9% 88% 2028 54.6%2029 2030 2031 0.5% 0.5% 93% 2032 57.7%

*Estimationyearsarehighlighted.**Duetocomputationaleffortrequired,notestimatedforallyears.

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Table18.Scenario3b–EstimatedCopperReductions

Year*

Scenario3b-AftermarketExemption(UnconstrainedReplacement)






2014 6.5% 2015 5.8% 6.9% 3% 2016 5.1% 2.2%2017 4.5% 2018 3.7% 2019 2.9% 4.7% 34% 2020 2.2% 21.2%2021 1.4% 2022 1.3% 2023 1.3% 1.8% 75% 2024 1.2% 46.4%2025 1.1% 2026 1.1% 2027 1.1% 1.2% 84% 2028 1.1% 51.9%2029 1.1% 2030 1.1% 2031 1.1% 1.2% 84% 2032 52.0%


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5.3 Comparison to Washington Department of Ecology Estimates

WashingtonDepartmentofEcologyusedthewearrateapproachtoestimatethebrakepadcopperreleasereductionthatwouldoccurifallon-roadvehicleshadbrakepadsmanufacturedin2021(WashingtonDepartmentofEcology2013).Theseestimatesonlyexaminedcopperreleasesintotheenvironment—nottheultimatereductionsinurbanrunoff.Theestimationscenarioispurelytheoretical,sincebrakepadsacrossthevehiclefleetarereplacedaboutevery3-5years(seeTable9).BecauseWashingtonassumedthatonlybrakepadcoppercontentwouldchange(wearrateandvehiclemilestraveledwereheldconstant),Washington’sreductionestimateeffectivelyestimatedreductioninmanufacturedbrakepadcopperascomparedtoits2011baselinedata.Washingtonestimatedaboutan87%reductioninthecoppercontentofbrakepadsmanufacturedin2021ascomparedtothosemanufacturedin2011.ThisreductionestimateisconsistentwiththemanufacturedbrakepadcoppercontentreductionestimatedinScenario2(seeTable19).

Table19.EstimatedAverageCopperContentofBrakePadsManufacturedin2021:ComparisonamongScenarios1-3andWashingtonEcologyEstimate

Scenario BaselineCopperContent

2021CopperContent

EstimatedReduction

1 7.2% 0.05% 99%

2 7.2% 0.9% 87%

3a 7.2% 1.4% 81%

3b 7.2% 1.4% 81%

WashingtonEcology [Variesbyvehicletype] 87%

Source:Tables14-17andWashingtonDepartmentofEcology2013.

5.4 Uncertainties

Althougheveryeffortwasmadetodevelopscenariosthatbrackettherangeofpossiblecopperreductionschedulesandtobasereductionestimatesonreasonableassumptions,theseestimatesmaynotaccountforallpossibilities.Forexample,ifhighcopperbrakepadscontinuetobeusedinthesmallpopulationsofexemptedvehicles(e.g.,motorcycles),theultimatereductionlevelscouldbeslightlylessthantheanticipatedmaximumreductionof61%.IntherelativelyunlikelyeventthatCaliforniaDTSCallowssubstantialextensions,thepaceofreductionscouldbeslowerthanestimatedinanyofthescenarios.Althoughtheseestimatesarebasedonthebestavailableinformation,theyareuncertain.Themostsignificantuncertaintiesareinbrakepadcoppercontent(particularlymarketvolumesforeachbrakepadcoppercontentlevel,whichareunavailable),futurechangesinvehiclemilestraveled,andwatershedresponse

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times.Asthebrakepadreformulationprocessunfolds,additionaldatawillbecomeavailablefromWashingtonStatethatwillreducetheuncertaintiesinbrakepadcoppercontentestimates.

Theseestimatesaredesignedtocoverordinary,highlyurbanizedCaliforniawatersheds.Theydonotaddresswatershedsunusuallocalcoppersources(e.g.,marineantifoulingpaintremovalactivities,coppermines),wherebrakepad-relatedcopperreductionswouldbelower.

5.5 Monitoring Progress

Inthelongterm,ambientmonitoringdatawillreflectbrakepadcopperreductions.BasedontheprojectionsinFigure7,reductionswilllikelybetoosmalltomeasureuntilthe2020s.Measuringreductionswillrequirearobustlong-termmonitoringprogramwithsufficientsamplestodifferentiatecopperreductionsfromordinaryvariabilityinenvironmentalsamples.TheCaliforniaStateWaterBoardSurfaceWaterAmbientMonitoringProgramStreamPollutionTrendsProgram(SWAMPSPoT)intends(assumingfundingremainsavailable)toprovidelong-termmeasurementsofcopperreductionsinsedimentsfromCaliforniaurbanwatersheds.SWAMPSPoT’srobustmonitoringplan,whichincludesseveraldozensitesinfluencedbyurbanrunoff,usedstatisticalpoweranalysistodeterminesufficientsamplingfrequencyformeasuringanticipatedreductions.6Itslong-termbaselinedataset,combinedwithitsrelativelylargenumberofsamplingsites,putsthisprogramintheuniquepositiontoidentifytrendsearlyandtrackthemeffectively.

6Watershedcopperreductionswereestimatedonthebasisofanearlierversionofthesereductionpredictions(Moran2013).

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Section6:Conclusions

Newly manufactured vehicle brake pads contain, on average, significantly less copper than they did in the early 2010s.

Brakepadsavailabletodayhaveanaveragecoppercontentofabout5.6%,a32%reductionascomparedtotheBPP2006estimateanda22%reductionascomparedtoWashington’s2011baselinedata.

In mid-2015, 44% of brake pad formulations contained <0.5% copper.

Thelowestcoppercontentbrakepadsarewidelyavailable,bothintheoriginalequipmentandaftermarkets.

Brake pads manufactured in 2021 are expected to contain 81-99% less copper than they did in the early 2010s.

By2019,newlymanufacturedbrakepadsareexpectedtocontain60%to75%lesscopperthantheydidatthestartofthisdecade.

BasedonbrakepadcoppercontentdatareportedtoWashingtonDepartmentofEcology,theactualreductiontrendappearstobefallingbetweenthemostoptimisticone-stepreduction(Scenario1)andthetwo-stepreduction(Scenario2).

Underallscenarios,thepaceofreductionsisanticipatedtoslowafter2020,whenallhigh-copperbrakepadswillbeoutofthemarket.

On-road brake pad copper content is dropping, but more slowly than manufactured brake pad copper content. A 35% to 43% reduction in on-road brake copper content should occur by 2019.

Theslowerpaceofon-roadbrakepadcopperreductionsisduetothecombinationofbrakepads’threetofiveyearaveragelifetimesonvehiclesandtheinventoryturnovertimesatwholesalersandretailers

Due to the slower change in on-road brakes and watershed lag times, urban runoff copper levels are slower. They are anticipated to drop by 21-27% by 2020 and by 46-57% by 2024.

Becauseenvironmentalmonitoringdatahavenaturalvariability,itislikelythattheurbanwatershedresponsetobrakepadcopperreductionrequirementswillfirstbemeasurableinthemid-2020s.

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Washington State’s upcoming decision about implementing requirements that all brake pads contain <0.5% copper has important water quality implications in California and the rest of the nation.

Duetothenatureofthevehiclepartssupplychain,thesamebrakepadsaresoldacrossallofNorthAmerica.Consequently,onestate’sregulatoryrequirementsaffecttheentirenation.WashingtonStatehasthemostrestrictiveapproachtoaftermarketexemptions.ThedifferencebetweenScenario2andScenario3predictionsshowtheimportanceofWashington’scontinuationofitsapproachtoexemptionsforaftermarketbrakepadsforoldervehicles.IfWashingtonmaintainsitscurrentapproachandfollowsitslegislativeprecedent,fullurbanrunoffcopperreductionsareexpectedtobeachievedintheearly2030s.IfWashington’sapproachweretodivergefromitsprecedents,thepaceofreductionwouldstarttodropoffintheearly2020s.By2028therewouldbeasmuchasa15%differencebetweencopperreductionswithanarrowaftermarketexemptionandcopperreductionswithabroadaftermarketexemption.Intheworstcase(Scenario3b),fullreductionsmightneverbeachieved.ThesedifferencesmayhaveimplicationsforcompliancewithwaterqualitystandardsandachievementofTotalMaximumDailyLoads(TMDLs).

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Section7:Recommendations

Recommendation 1: Share these projections with Washington State and with the vehicle industry.

WashingtonStatewillsoonmakeadecisionaboutimplementingrequirementsthatallbrakepadscontain<0.5%copper.Washington’slawdelegatesthisdecisiontotheWashingtonDepartmentofEcology.Throughitsthreescenarios,thisreportestimatesthedifferenceinwaterqualityoutcomesthatcouldoccurasaconsequenceoftheWashingtondecision.IfWashingtoncontinues,asexpected,tofollowitslegislativeprecedent,whichhasanarrowaftermarketexemption(onlybrakepadssuppliedtodealersunderan“originalequipmentservicecontract”areexempt),Scenarios1and2wouldprovidethebestprojectionsoffuturecopperreductions.IfWashingtonunexpectedlyabandonsitsprecedent—andoffersabroadexemptionforaftermarketpartsforpre-2025vehicles,Scenarios3aand3billustratethatthepaceofcopperreductionwouldbesignificantlyslowerandtotalreductionsby2032wouldbelower.

Recommendation 2: Update these copper reduction estimates in 2018 using data from implementation of California SB 346 and Washington State law.

WashingtonState’scollectionofbrakepadformulationdataprovidesanongoingtrackingofbrakepadcoppercontent.Updatedinformationcanbeusednotonlytoupdatetheestimates,butalsotorefinetheassumptionstoreduceuncertaintiesinthecopperreductionestimates.TheWashingtondatasetlinkstobrakepadcertificationsthatexpireevery3years.Mostcurrentcertificationsexpirein2016or2017.Thefirstsetofcertificationsin2013-14likelyincludedeveryformulationinthemarketplaceatthattime,includingmanyformulationsdevelopedlongbeforeadoptionofcopperrestrictions.Bythetimetheseformulationsareupforrenewalin2016-17,manufacturersmayhavesufficientupdatedformulationstoabandonlegacyhighcopperproducts.Anupdatein2018wouldreflectthesechangesandcouldincludesufficientadditionalnewinformationtoprovideameaningfulupdatetothese2015estimates.

Recommendation 3: Use the California State Water Board “SWAMP SPoT” sediment monitoring to track brake pad copper reductions.

Measuringreductionswillrequirearobustlong-termmonitoringprogramwithsufficientsamplestodifferentiatecopperreductionsfromordinaryvariabilityinenvironmentalsamples.TheCaliforniaStateWaterBoardSurfaceWaterAmbientMonitoringProgramSedimentPollutionTrendsProgram(SWAMPSPoT)hastheuniquecapacitytotrackthesetrends.

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Recommendation 4: Use the urban runoff copper reduction estimates in this report, in combination with local data, for urban runoff management planning purposes, doing so in a manner that recognizes that uncertainties in the estimates and unique local watershed characteristics.

Thisreportwaspreparedtoprovideinformationtosupporturbanrunoffmanagementplanning.Usinglocalmonitoringdataandknowledgeofwatershedcharacteristics,bothwaterqualityregulatorsandtheregulatedcommunitycanusetheestimatesinthisreporttosupportdevelopmentofquantitativelocalcopperreductionprojectionsandtoexaminethemagnitudeandtimingofanticipatedvehiclebrakepadcopperreductionsinrelationshiptotargetsinlocalandregionalplans(e.g.,copperTMDLs).Organizationsusingthesedatashouldevaluatetheapplicabilityoftheseestimatestotheirspecificwatershedscarefullyandshouldrecognizetheuncertaintiesinherentintheseestimatesaswellastheirgenericnature.Useoftheseestimatesshouldbeaccompaniedbyanexaminationofthewatershedforthepresenceofanyunusuallocalcoppersources(e.g.,marineantifoulingpaintremovalactivities,coppermines).

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