Managing Uncertainty

Strategy Under Uncertainty

What

• Manajemen Ketidakpastian • Empat Level Ketidakpastian (Clear Enough Future, Alternate Future, A

Range of Futuru, True Ambiguity)• Analisis Strategi dari Empat Tingkat Ketidakpastian • Postures and Moves• Strategi Posture (Membentuk Masa depan, Beradaptasi dengan masa

depan, Reserve the right to play)

• A Portofolio of Actions (No regrets Moves, Option, Big Bets)

• Pendekatan baru terhadap ketidakpastian.

What

• Ketidakpastian dalam menentukan strategi Pemasaran di masa yang akan datang Melalui empat level ketidak pastian.

• Manejer perusahaan membuat sebuah keputusan dalam strategi pemasaran

• Efek yang terjadi di setiap strategi penjualan dimasa yang akan datang

• Strategi dalam menhadapi kompetitor• Strategi beradaptasi dengan lingkungan• Strategi dalam menentukan komitment investasi • Bagaimana memilih strategi yang baik untuk investasi masa

depan.• Menentukan arah investasi kedepan dalam ketidakpastian

Why

(Why)Anatomi masa depan

• Masa depan yang belum diketahuimerupakan suatu kedaan dimana belum adanya informsi untuk membuat strategi investasi.

• Masa depan yang sudah diketahuiKeadaan yang sudah diketahui karena adanya informasi sehingga dapat membantu dalam membuat strategi investasi

• Residual atau ketidakpastianDalam satu sisi investor belum mengetahui keadaan yg sebernaya yang akan terjadi di masa depan namun juga investor sudah ada informasi yang terkait dalam menentukan strategi pemasaran.

(Why)Empat tingkatan ketidakpastian dalam strategi pemasaran

• A Clear Enough Future

• Alternate Futures

• A Range of Futures

• True Ambiguity

A Clear Enough Future

A Clear-Enough Future

What Can Be Known?

Analytic Tools

Examples

• A single forecast precise enough for determining strategy

• “Traditional” Strategy Toolkit

• Strategy against low-cost airline entrant.

Alternate future

• A few discrete outcomes that define the future

•Decision analysis•Option valuation models•Game theory

•Long distance telephone carriers’ strategy to enter the deregulated local-service market•Capacity strategies for Chemical Plants

Alternate Futures

1

2

3

What Can Be Known?

Analytic Tools

Examples

A Range of Future

Source: Harvard Business Review (HBR) on Managing Uncertainty, HBR Press.

• A Range of possible outcomes, but no natural scenarios

•Latent-demand research•Technology Forecasting•Scenario Planning

•Entering emerging markets, such as India•Developing or acquiring emerging technologies in consumer electronics

A Range of Futures

What Can Be Known?

Analytic Tools

Examples

True Ambiguity

• No basis to forecast the future

•Analogies and pattern recognition•Non-linear dynamic models

•Entering the market for consumer multimedia applications•Entering the Russian Market in 1982

True AmbiguityWhat Can Be Known?

Analytic Tools

Examples

Who

1. Para Eksekutif dalam perusahaan sebagai pengambil keputusan

2. Stakeholders pemegang saham dalam perushaan3. Kompetitor sebagai pendorong dalam berinovasi

dalam menentukan strategi pemasaran.4. Konsumen sebagai penerima manfaat dari

perusahaan.

When

• Diperhadapkan dengan Ketidakpastian dalam menentukan strategi penjualan di masa yang akan datang.

• Di saat Manejer perusahaan membuat sebuah keputusan dalam strategi penjualan

• Ketika Efek yang terjadi di setiap strategi penjualan dimasa yang akan datang

• Disaat Perusahaan menhadapi kompetitor• Disaat perusahaan beradaptasi dengan lingkungan• Di saat perusahaan menentukan Strategi dalam berkomitment untuk

investasi • Di saat perusahaan memilih strategi yang baik untuk investasi masa

depan.• Disaat Menentukan arah investasi kedepan dalam ketidakpastian

How ?

Shape the future

Play a leadership roleIn establishing how the industry operates, for example:-Setting standards-Creating demand

Adapt to the future

Win through speed, agility,and flexibility in recognizingand capturing opportunitiesin existing markets.

Reserve the Right to Play

Invest sufficiently to stay inthe game but avoid prematurecommitments.

The Three Strategic Postures

The Choice of Strategic Postures and Moves

No Regrets Moves

Strategic decisions thatHave positive payoffs inAny scenario

Options

Decisions that yield aSignificant positive payoff in Some outcomes, and a(small) negative effective inOthers.

Big Bets

Focused strategies with positive payoffsIn one or more scenarios but a negativeEffect in others.

What’s in a Portfolio of Actions?

These building blocks are distinguished by three payoff profiles – that is, the amount of investment required up front and the conditions under which the investment will yield a positive return.

How a Regional Bank Conforts the Uncertainties in E-Commerce

1.Identify the nature and extent of residual uncertaintiesKey areas of uncertainty include:• How much electronic commerce will occur on the Internet• How quickly consumers will switch from paper-based to electronic payments• Which specific instruments will become the primary payment vehicles (smart cards? E-cash?)• What structure will emerge for the elec- tronic commerce industry• How vertically integrated most players will be

• What roles banks and nonbanks will play The bank is facing level 3 uncertainty in some areas and level 4 in others

2.Choose a strategic postureObjectives:

• Defend current customer franchise from at- tack by new technology-based competitors• Capture new business opportunities in fast growing markets

Overall posture: reserve the right to play

3.Build a portfolio of actionsNear-term opportunities to offer more innovative products in specific areas where the bank is strong (for example, procurement cards, industry-specific payment products) represent no-re- grets moves.Offering leading-edge payment prod- ucts to high-value customer segments that are most vulnerable to attackers is another no-regrets move.Forming a small new-business unit is a growth option to:• Conduct R&D for new payment ideas• Monitor industry developments in the broad area of retail electronic payments

4.Actively manage the strategy Monitor key trigger events such as adoption rates for emerging products and the behavior of nontraditional com- petitors such as telephone companies.Establish a short-cycle review of the portfolio of options.Participate in a number of industry consortia to reduce uncertainty.

Metode lain yang digunakan dalam menganalisis

strategi ketidakpastian pemasaran.

Many corporations have a collection of tools to better understand the effect of uncertainty on decision making, and successful consulting firms have been built to bring these tools to their clients. They use different methods like:

• Decision Analysis.

• Scenario Planning.

• Simulation Analysis.

• Real Options.