ESR John Buckleton ood Forensi S ien e. ESR John Buckleton Good Forensic Science A view from the...
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Transcript of ESR John Buckleton ood Forensi S ien e. ESR John Buckleton Good Forensic Science A view from the...
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John Buckleton ESR
ood Forensi S ien e
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John Buckleton ESR
Good Forensic Science
A view from the bottom by John Buckleton
With thanks to my great mentors
Ian Evett and Bruce Weir
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John Buckleton ESR
What can the 80’s and 90’s teach us?
In most cases the interpretation “arguments” were never settled.
They were superseded by technology or they remain
Product rule or not? The place of independence testing? Relatives? Two stain at a scene
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John Buckleton ESR
Why we have been unable, by science alone, to settle the
interpretation matters of our day?
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John Buckleton ESR
WHAT IS THE QUESTION?
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John Buckleton ESR
Budowle B. National Forensic Science Training Centre, Florida, 1996.
“The germane question is: What is the frequency
in the database?”
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John Buckleton ESR
First ‘germane’. Oxford gives this as: “Relevant, pertinent to the matter or subject”.
It must certainly be agreed that it is important to ask relevant questions so it certainly seems important to define the germane question.
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John Buckleton ESR
Since this question is germane let us try answering it.
Imagine that we have a 13 locus STR match. • search the database of say 200 persons (a
plausible size in the USA) for this profile• almost certainly do not find it?
We can now answer the germane question:
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John Buckleton ESR
“What is the frequency in the database?”
The frequency in the database is zero
“Hmmmm. What shall I do with that information?”
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John Buckleton ESR
The question, if taken literally, is not much use.
If it cannot be taken literally then can the question be improved?
Perhaps the author didn’t mean database
perhaps he meant population.
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John Buckleton ESR
“What I meant was, the germane question is: What is the frequency
in the population?”
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John Buckleton ESR
Here the last word has been changed from database (where the frequency is zero) to population?
This seems quite a lot better. Armed with this, we approach our
database of 200 persons and attempt to answer this “germane” question.
What can we do next?
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John Buckleton ESR
What has happened is that we have changed from database
completely characterized we can count any frequencies to talking about a “population” There is uncertainty about the population. do not KNOW the frequency of the genotype in
the population. may even have difficulty defining the population.
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John Buckleton ESR
Accept that we are now estimating something There is uncertainty in the estimation process. We will need, at least: A population genetic model. A statistical theory to assess sampling error. Estimation of something very small is difficult.
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John Buckleton ESR
“What I really meant was, What is the product rule estimate
from this database?”
It would be sad if the audience’s positive reaction was because they liked the simplicity of this statement or that they knew how to do it or that they didn’t have to learn anything new.
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John Buckleton ESR
Evett IW. (1983) What is the probability that this blood came from that person: A meaningful question?
J Forensic Sci Soc 23:35-59.
“What is the probability that this blood came from that person?”
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John Buckleton ESR
The second was set up deliberately to answer a question of relevance to the court.
The first did not start from this formalized line of thinking.
The second is the more “germane” question.
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John Buckleton ESR
This is the lesson that can be taken from the analysis of this question:
If you don’t have some firm principles on which to base your forensic thinking you can be left relying on your intuition.
Sometimes this will be adequate but it will seldom stand up in comparison to a professional, scholarly and logical approach.
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John Buckleton ESR
Uniqueness?
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John Buckleton ESR
Your honor, this profile is unique, to a reasonable
degree of scientific certainty.
“That sounds very objective. I like that.What do you mean when you say
the profile is unique?”
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John Buckleton ESR
I mean it has met objective criteria developed by my laboratory.
“What are these criteria?”
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John Buckleton ESR
We defined a reasonable degree of scientific certainty by setting an
acceptable error rate for this decision.
“Ouch. That’s really my job”
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John Buckleton ESR
We ignored all issues regarding relatedness.
“Why?”
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John Buckleton ESR
We assumed a population genetic modelcalled the product rule.
“Ouch. How can you be sure that is correct?”
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John Buckleton ESR
We assumed a population genetic modelcalled the product rule.
“Would it be better to accept that there is some uncertainty in the model?”
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John Buckleton ESR
I’ve done lots of data analysis and I think it is OK or near enough.
“This sounds more like an opinion than an objective criterion.”
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John Buckleton ESR
This is a fallacy.Independence testing cannot prove
the product rule
Independence testing shows that I’m right.
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John Buckleton ESR
They are also consistent withminor subdivision
Yes, but the data are consistent with expectation for independence..
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John Buckleton ESR
Caucasian Eastern Polynesian Western Polynesian
Pr Pr Pr VWA 0.698 0.297 0.195 THO1 0.395 0.755 0.266 D8 0.706 0.912 0.105 FGA 0.359 0.644 0.913 D21 0.714 0.752 0.709 D18 0.632 0.215 0.129 VWA/THO1 0.505 0.131 0.656 VWA/D8 0.482 0.232 0.424 VWA/FGA 0.112 0.506 0.893 VWA/D21 0.704 0.058 0.949 VWA/D18 0.283 0.715 0.751 THO1/D8 0.111 0.982 0.299 THO1/FGA0.535 0.964 0.324 THO1/D21 0.338 0.711 0.416 THO1/D18 0.057 0.241 0.025 D8/FGA 0.117 0.938 0.858 D8/D21 0.240 0.563 0.456 D8/D18 0.320 0.106 0.210 FGA/D21 0.209 0.668 0.901 FGA/D18 0.028 0.015 0.400 D21/D18 0.115 0.229 0.636
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John Buckleton ESR
0
2
4
6
8
10
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John Buckleton ESR
Post hoc rationalization Most unwise Budolwe et al. testing the FBI’s HBGG locus, appear
to have combined the A and C alleles. There is a significant departure from
independence if the alleles are not combined, caused largely by a single CC homozygote.
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John Buckleton ESR
Post hoc rationalization Result does not appear in the paper Budowle et al. conclude that the data
are “consistent” with Hardy-Weinberg expectations
This is an unreasonable statement considering the (presumably) post hoc combination of two alleles.
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John Buckleton ESR
We BELIEVE That the effects of subdivision are
relatively minor They do, however, add across loci
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John Buckleton ESR
OK so it’s minor so we can safely ignore it.
It has no “forensic significance.”
“I won’t dare ask what Forensic significance means.
Would it not be more scientific to quantify the effect?”
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John Buckleton ESR
Well that makes things quite complex.
“It seems to me more scientific . It is also a principle of law that doubt
should be given to the accused.”
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John Buckleton ESR
Why are many countries dropping their point count rules in fingerprints
and accepting that a statement of common source in fingerprints is an expert opinion?
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John Buckleton ESR
USA v Byron C Mitchell
Individualisation ..can result from comparisons.…containing a sufficient quality .. and
quantity of unique friction ridge detail
This sounds like expert opinion evidence, especially words like “sufficient quality”
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John Buckleton ESR
Has the SCIENTIFIC basis for statements of common source in DNA been really thought
through? Published and accepted?
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John Buckleton ESR
Yes you are probably right. But does this meet standards
for scientific testimony?
Not exactly but I’m probably right.
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John Buckleton ESR
20 years from now will they call this good science?
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John Buckleton ESR
Maybe, but I suspect the difference would be much less if
we had an accepted formal method for scientific decision making in forensic science.
Is it not simply that reasonable people can hold different points of view?
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John Buckleton ESR
“What if Bayesian methods can help?”
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John Buckleton ESR
When men understand what each other mean, they see for the most part, that controversy is either superfluous or hopeless.