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ESCB statistics for European policy making
Workshop on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA in EECCA countries and linkages with BPM6 and GFSM 2014
Istanbul, 6-8 May 2015
Gabriel QuirósHead of DivisionMacroeconomic StatisticsEuropean Central Bank
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1 The ECB / Eurosystem / ESCB / SSM
2
Outline
Production of statistics 3
2 Legal framework for statistics
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FI
BE
LU
NLDE
FR
ES
IT
AT
SI
BG
ROHU
PL
CZSK
EE
LV
LT
SE
UK
GREU Member States with a derogation
HREuro area: 19 EU Member States which have adopted the euro
Eurosystem: ECB and national central banks of the 19 EU Member States of the euro area
European System of Central Banks (ESCB): ECB and national central banks of the 28 Member States of the European Union
The ECB / Eurosystem / ESCB / SSM
Single Supervisory Mechanism: ECB and the national supervisory authorities of the euro area and other EU countries which choose to participate
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Define and implement monetary policy
Promote smooth operation of payment systems
Banking supervision and contribute to stability of the financial system
Monetary policyFinancial Stability/
Banking Supervision
Payment systems
Key ECB / Eurosystem / ESCB functions
4
The ECB / Eurosystem / ESCB / SSM
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own produced statistics
European statistics produced by Eurostat and the national statistical offices (e.g. GDP, HICP, labour market and short-term business statistics)
data from commercial data providers
Monetary and financial statistics
External statistics
Securities statistics
Quarterly euro area accounts
Supervisory statistics
Other statistics
Statistics supporting decision making
5
ESCB European statistics
The ECB / Eurosystem / ESCB / SSM
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www.ecb.europa.eu ©
Article 338 TFEU Article 5 ESCB/ECB Statute Treaty of the EU
European Statistical SystemRegulation 223/09
ECB collecting statisticsRegulation 2533/98
EP and Council Regulationsaddressed to Member States
ECB Regulationsaddressed to reporting agents
ECB Guidelines
NCBs
Eurosystem
…
Short-term Statistics
HICP
ESA 2010 transmission programme
Investment Funds
…Insurance Corp. & Pension Funds
BOP
MUFA
GFSMFI
Balance sheet
Interest rates
Financial Vehicle Corporations
Legal framework for European statistics
Securities Holdings
6
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Legal framework for ECB statistics
7
SSM tasks
CR2533/98
Capital Requirements Directive and
Regulation (CRD-IV)
EBA’s Implementing Technical Standards
(ITS)
CorepFinrep....
EC
B
Reg
ulat
ions
EC
B
Gui
delin
es
Additionalinformation/new data
needs
• legal act(s) under SSM regulation
ESCB tasks
SSM Regulation 1024/2013
Legal basis for new ECB tasks - SSM Regulation. Council Regulation No 1024/2013: “confers to the ECB specific tasks relating to the prudential supervision of credit institutions”
Issue: multi-purpose information
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EU National Central Banks
ECB
EU National StatisticalInstitutes
Responsibility• General economic statistics• non-economic statistics
• Monetary and Financial statistics
• Quarterly financial accounts• Financial stability statistics
Memorandum of Understanding
Committee for Monetary, Financial and Balance of Payments Statistics
European System of Central Banks
(ESCB)/Eurosystem
European Statistiscal System
(ESS)
Shared responsibilities•Balance of Payments•European Sector Accounts •Statistical Infrastructure
+ new: European Statistical Forum
Statistics Committee European Statistical Systems Committee
Responsibility
Governance of European statistics (1)
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The ESCB and the European Statistical System (Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes) develop, produce and disseminate European statistics
under separate legal frameworks, reflecting their respective governance structures
Memorandum of Understanding between ESS and the ESCB (signed on April 2013) enhanced cooperation:
European Statistical Forum – strategic cooperation
work jointly in Committee for Monetary, Financial and Balance of Payments statistics (CMFB) - operational cooperation
9
Governance of European statistics (2)
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Statistics Committee (STC)
ECB Executive Board
ECB Governing Council
WG on Monetary
and Financial Statistics
WG on Euro Area
Accounts
WG on External Statistics
WG on General
Economic Statistics
WG on Government Finance Statistics
WG on Statistical
Information Manageme
nt
WG on Securities Statistics
Decision-making bodies for ECB statistics
10
Statistics Committee in SSM Composition
(STC in SSM)
ECB Supervisory Board
WG on Supervisory Statistics
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ECB legal instruments concerning statistics
• Regulation – directly imposes obligations on reporting agents in euro area
• Guideline – imposes obligations on Eurosystem (including ECB)
• Recommendation – informs statistical authorities other than central banks in euro area of ECB requirements; not legally binding
• Decision – makes it public Governing Council decisions which impose obligations on addressees; can also be without addressees
• Notice – to inform/explain
• Opinion – expression of ECB view, usually in response to a consultation under Treaty/Statute
Also Memorandum of Understanding
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Rubric
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Statistical work at the ECB is the result of team effort
• NCBs/NCAs: - Collection of data from reporting agents, other national statistical authorities,
other national sources- All contact with reporting agents/representative bodies- Perform tasks in accordance with EU/ECB legal acts- Responsibility for meeting the ECB’s/SSM requirement- Compilation and publication of national aggregates/contributions to
aggregates
• ECB: - Collection of data from other Community/international sources (e.g. Eurostat,
BIS)- Quality assurance processes - Compilation and publication of euro area aggregates
• Shared: - Conceptual/development work, development of legal/technical infrastructure (ECB in lead)- Participation in Community/international statistical committees
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Rubric
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Compiling euro area aggregates
• Complying with international statistical standards SNA 2008, ESA 2010, BPM6
• Usual approach – build from national contributions.
• Importance of harmonization of the national contributions.
• Some euro area aggregates are a simple sum of (harmonized) national data, but some are not.
• National money stock commonly includes deposits held by residents with banks located in the country concerned. Euro area money stock includes deposits held by residents of all euro area countries with banks (MFIs) located anywhere in the euro area. It exceeds the sum of national money stocks by the amount of cross-border depositing within the euro area.
• National balance of payments statistics measure all cross-border transactions of residents of the country concerned. The b.o.p. of the euro area excludes cross-border transactions within the euro area. Gross flows in the euro area b.o.p. fall short of the sum of national b.o.p. flows by the amount of these cross-border flows within the area.
13
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National and euro area monetary aggregates
In German M3 In neither German nor Austrian M3 In Austrian M3
Deposits held by Deposits held by Deposits held by Deposits held by Germans with MFIs Germans with MFIs Austrians with MFIs Austrians with MFIs in Germany in Austria in Germany in Austria
All the above are components of euro area monetary aggregatesI----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I
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Rubric
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Reference reporting population for ECB statistics
• Central banks, other MFIs
• Other (non-monetary) financial intermediaries
• Post office giro institutions
• Entities holding cross-border positions or carrying out cross-border transactions
• Issuers of securities or e-money
The reference reporting population is confined to entities resident in the euro area (but the ECB may collect from them consolidated data which includes information relating to their branches outside the euro area).
This is all set out in Community legislation Regulation No 2533/98 - notable amendment here in No 951/2009 is extension of reference reporting population to include insurance corporations and pension funds.
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Brief overview of own produced statistics
• MFI (banking) balance sheets; monetary aggregates and counterparts
• MFI interest rates
• Securities issues and holdings
• Other (non-monetary) financial intermediaries
• Financial markets
• Payment systems
• Balance of payments
• International investment position
• Other external statistics
• Government finance
• Euro area integrated institutional sector accounts
• Supervisory statistics
[MFI = monetary financial institution]
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Supervisory data
Module 1: Core supervisory data: ITS data1
2 Module 2: MFI Statistics, Securities Holdings Statistics
3 Module 3: Granular Analytical Credit Database
4Module 4: Ad-hoc data
(top-down stress testing, surveys)
5Module 5: Other non-ITS supervisory data
(interest rate risk reporting)
6Module 6: Public disclosure
(Pillar 3, financial markets data)
The Supervisory statistical requirements are articulated in the SSM Supervisory Reporting Manual and form the main source and basis of requirements to DG/S.
covered
available, further requirements
Under development
covered ,DG/S to provide support
covered, but possiblefurther requirements
not harmonised butcovered
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DG-S - data flows for statistical and supervisory tasks
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SSM groups & solo banks
ECB DG-Statistics
NCBs / NCAs
Statistics (aggregated and granular)
Monetary Policy,
Payments, etc
Executive Board –
Monetary Analysis
Supervisory Board –
Supervisory analysis
An
alysis D
issemin
ation
Pro
cessing
Recep
tion
Supervisory data (Pilot, FINREP/COREP, stress test)
Supervision
Economics, Research, Operations, Payments,
General Public
DG I to DGIV, Joint Supervisory Teams (on and off site
inspections)
ESRB, EBA,FSB
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The Sequential Approach – Process for reporting ITS data
• The ITS data are reported to the EBA following a sequential approach. NCAs participating in the SSM (SSM-NCAs) send the data to the ECB, which as a competent authority, immediately submits the reports to the EBA
The sequential approach reduces reporting burdens and redundant data flows
NCA
NCA
NCA
NCA
NCA
19
DG-S - data flows for supervisory tasks
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Thank you for your attention!!!
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Annex
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Sources: for euro area and EU: ECB, Eurostat, national sources, IMF, World Bank and ECB calculations; for the United States, Japan and China: national sources, IMF, World Bank and ECB calculations.
* Purchasing Power Standards (PPSs) in euro, calculated on the basis of PPP rates relative to the euro area (Euro 18 = 1).** refers to 2011*** refers to 2012
Total population (millions)
GDP (PPP*, € trillions)
GDP per capita (PPP*, € thousands)
Share of world GDP (PPP*, %)
Exports (goods and services, % of GDP)
Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP)
Gross saving (% of GDP)
Reference year: 2013
335
9.6
28.6
12.1
27.0
17.7
20.3
508
13.5
26.6
17.1
18.2
17.3
19.0
316
13.0
41.2
16.5
13.5
18.9
18.0
128
3.6
28.1
4.5
17.0
21.7
24.5**
1,361
12.5
9.2
15.9
25.5***
46.5***
51.0***
€ -18 1 EU-28
Key characteristics of the euro area
1) Lithuania became the 19th euro area member state on 1.1.2015.
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Monetary and financial statistics
• Monetary, financial institutions and financial markets statistics
Monetary aggregates and counterparts, minimum reserves
Interest rates, securities issues
Investment funds
Financial Vehicle corporations
Financial soundness indicators, financial integration indicators
Consolidated Banking Data
Financial market statistics - yield curve, PDFs -
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1st publication 20 September 2012
ESRB Risk Dashboard:http://www.esrb.europa.eu/pub/rd/html/index.en.html
And also in SDW:http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000003268
e.g. the ESRB Risk Dashboard
RDB as a risk assessment tool (input to further systemic risk analysis)
RDB as communication tool
50 indicators regarding the 6 identified risk typologies
Interlinkages and composite measures of systemic risk
Risk C
ategories
Macro risk
Credit risk
Funding and Liquidity
Market risk
Profitability and Solvency
24
ECB statistical support to the ESRB
The ECB has to provide statistical support to the European Systemic Risk Board (Council Regulation 1096/2010)
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External statistics
Euro area balance of payments and international investment position - including international reserves
• Monthly balance of payments
• Quarterly breakdown by main partners
• International investment position (balance sheet) and link to balance of payments
Includes geographic breakdown of the euro area current and capital account, international investment position and trade in goods
Nominal and real effective exchange rates of the euro
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Government Finance statistics
Protocol on the EDP: 3% and 60% of GDP as reference values for government deficit and debt reserves
Complete set of government accounts (revenue, expenditure, debt and deficit-debt adjustment) providing an integrated overview of the government balance and debt in annual frequency
Fiscal discipline is essential for the stability of the euro
• keeping price stability: direct (e.g. VAT) and indirect effects (wages)
• containing inflation expectations: rising government debt may lead to pressure on the ECB to tolerate higher inflation to erode the real value of debt
• keeping financial markets stable: interest rate on government debt in one country is affected by the evolution of other countries deficits and debts Quarterly breakdown by main partners
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Euro area accounts
Complete description of euro area economic and financial developments: whole economy and by institutional sector (financial and non-financial corporations, private households and government, rest of the world)
Integrates monetary, financial and economic statistics
Consistent statistical basis for quarterly economic and monetary analysis, with integrated non-financial accounts and financial accounts
Enables analysis of interrelations between key macro-economic policy indicators (e.g. household saving rate, indebtedness and changes in wealth; entrepreneurial income of non-financial corporations; government debt)
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General economic statistics
• Other European statistics used by the ECB (Eurostat primary
responsibility):
– Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)
– GDP
– Business indicators: industrial production, retail trade, etc.
– Employment, unemployment, labour costs, etc.
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Separation principle – ECB Decision of 17 Sep 2014
Organisational separation: the ECB shall maintain autonomous decision-making procedures for its supervisory and monetary policy functions
ECB to carry out its supervisory tasks without prejudice to and separately from its tasks relating to monetary policy and any other tasks
Professional secrecy: persons carrying out supervisory duties shall be required, even after their duties have ceased, not to disclose information covered by professional secrecy
Exchange of confidential information between policy functions: upon request on a need to know basis, subject to Executive Board approval, except where Union law provides otherwise
Analysis of the confidential information: to be conducted autonomously by the receiving policy function in accordance with its objective. Any subsequent decision to be taken solely on this basis
29