ES - 92 Project Management

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Project Management


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Introduction Project Management can be used to

manage complex projects

Alm os t e ve ry in du s t ry worrie s a bou t how to

m a n a g e la rge -sca le ,

com p lica te d p ro je ct s

e f e ct ive ly. It is a d i cu lt

p rob le m , a nd the s ta ! e s

a re h ig h .

" h e # r s t s t e p in p la n n in g a n d

s ch e d u lin g a p r o je c t is t o d e ve lop t h e wor ! b r e a ! d own s t r u c t u r e .


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"his involves identi$ying the activities that must beper$ormed in the project. "here may be varyinglevels o$ detail, and each activity may be bro!eninto its most basic components. "he time, cost,resource re%uirements, predecessors, andperson&s' responsible are identi#ed $or each

activity.

( o r ! ) r e a ! d own * t r u c t u r e .


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*teps o$ P " and PM

/e#ne the project and all o$ its signi#cantactivities or tas!s.

01

/evelop the relationships among the activities./ecide which activities must precede others.2

/raw the networ! connecting all o$ theactivities.

3 Assign time and4or cost estimates to each

activity.5 ompute the longest time path through thenetwor! 6 critical path .7

8se the networ! to help plan, schedule,monitor, and control the project.0


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+uestions answered byP "

(hen will the entire project be completed;1 (hat are the critical activities or tas!s in the

project, that are, the ones that will delay theentire project i$ they are late;

2

(hich are the noncritical activities, that are, theones that can run late without delaying the

entire project


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+uestions answered byP "

At any particular date, is the project on schedule,behind the schedule, or ahead o$ schedule;7

=n any given date, is the money spent e%ual to,less than, or greater than the budgeted amount;0

Are there enough resources available to #nishthe project on time;

>

I$ the project is to be #nished in a shorteramount o$ time, what is the best way toaccomplish this at the least cost;

?


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/rawing the P " :etwor! "wo common techni%ues@

Activity-on-node &A=:'

nodes represent the activities

1

Activity-on-arc &A=A'arcs represent the activities

2


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Activity-on-node &A=:' In constructing, there should be one

node representing the start o$ theproject and one node representingthe #nish o$ the project.


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eneral 9oundry, Inc. xample

eneral 9oundry, Inc., a metalwor!s plant in ebuity, has long been trying to avoid the expense o$

installing a air pollution control e%uipment. "he local

environmental protection group has recently giventhe $oundry 10 wee!s to install a complex air #ltersystem on its main smo!estac!. eneral 9oundrywas warned that it will be $orced to close unless thedevice is installed in the allotted period. "he PlantManager, wants to ma!e sure that installation o$ the#ltering system progresses smoothly and on time.


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ACTIVITY DESCRIPTION IMMEDIATEPREDECESSORS

A )uild internal components --) Modi$y roo$ and Boor --

onstruct collection stac! A

/ Pour concrete and install $rame )

)uild high-temperature burner9 Install control system

Install air pollution device /,

C Inspect and test 9,


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*tart

A)uild

Internalomponents

)Modi$y oo$

and 9loor

onstructollection

*tac!

/Modi$y oo$

and 9loor

9Installontrol

*ystem

InstallPollution/evice

)uild)urner

CInspect and

"est9inish


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Activity "imes Optimistic Time (a) D time an activity will ta!e i$

everything goes as well as possible. "here should be only a small

probability &say, 141EE' o$ thisoccurring.

Pessimistic Time (b) D time an activity would ta!eassuming very un$avourable

conditions. "here should also be only asmall probability that the activity willreally ta!e this long


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Activity "imes Most likel time (m) D most realistic time

estimate to complete the activity.

! P " o$ten assumes that time estimates $ollow thebeta probabilit distribution"

Probability o$ 1 in1EE o$ a occurring

P r o

b a b i l i t

y

Most =ptimistic

"ime&a'

Most Fi!ely "ime

&m'

Most Pessimistic "ime

&b'

Probability o$ 1 in1EE o$ b occurring

Activity "ime


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Activity "imes "he e#pected activit time (t) , $rom beta

distribution@

t D &a G 5m G b' 4 0 "he variance o$ activit completion time%

variance D H&b 6 a' 4 0 2


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"ime estimates &(ee!s' $or eneral 9oundry, Inc.

Activity

Optimistic, a MostPro a le,

m

Pessi!mistic,

b

E"pecte#

Time, t

Variance

A 1 2 3 2 5430) 2 3 5 3 5430

1 2 3 2 5430

/ 2 5 0 5 10430

1 5 > 5 30430

9 1 2 J 3 054303 5 11 7 05430

C 1 2 3 2 5430


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A 2

:etwor! with xpected Activity "imes $or eneral 9oundry, Inc.

*tart

B 3

C 2

D 4

F 3

E 4

G 5

H 2

9inish


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9inding the ritical Path Critical Path 6 longest time path route through the

networ!.

9inding the critical path, we need to determine the$ollowing %uantities $or each activity in the networ!@

Earliest start time ( *'@ the earliest time an activity canbegin without violation o$ immediate predecessor

re%uirements

1

Earliest &nish time ( 9'@ the earliesttime at which an activity can end.

2


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arliest "imes

earliest #nish time D earliest start time G expected activitytime 9 D * G t

1

earliest start D largest o$ the earliest #nishtimes o$ immediate predecessors * D largest 9 o$ immediatepredecessors

2

!be$ore an activit can be started all o$ its predecessorsactivities must be completed *n other words we search $or thelargest E+ $or all o$ the immediate predecessors in determiningE,"


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arliest "imes

A t=2

ES = 0 EF = 0 + 2 = 2

*tart

B t=3

ES = 0 EF = 0 + 3 = 3


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A 2

0 2

arliest *tart & *' K arliest 9inish & 9' "imes $or eneral 9oundry, Inc.

*tart

B 3

0 3

C 2

2 4

D 4

3 7

F 3

4 7

E 4

4 8

G 5

8 13

H 2

13 15 9inish

"he #nish time $or the project will be 17 wee!s, which is the 9 $oractivity C.

8sing +orward Pass through the networ!@


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A 2

0 2

0 2

arliest *tart & *' K arliest 9inish & 9' "imes $or eneral 9oundry, Inc.

*tart

B 3

0 3

1 4

C 2

2 4

2 4

D 4

3 7

4 8

F 3

4 7

10 13

E 4

4 8

4 8

G 5

8 13

8 13

H 2

13 15

13 15

9inish

9or activity , which is the immediate predecessor $or two activities & K9', the latest #nish time is the smaller o$ the latest start times &5 K 1E'$or K 9 activit .

8sing -ackward Pass through the networ!@


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*lac! in ritical Path$or eneral 9oundry, Inc.

Activity

EarliestStart,

ES

Earliest$inish,

E$

%atestStart,

%S

%atest$inish,

%$

Slac& OnCriticalPath'

A E 2 E 2 E Les

) E 3 1 5 1 :o

2 5 2 5 E Les

/ 3 > 5 ? 1 :o

5 ? 5 ? E Les

9 5 > 1E 13 0 :o

? 13 ? 13 E LesC 13 17 13 17 E Les

Activities A, , , , and C have no slac! time this means thatnone o$ them can be delayed without delaying the entire project.

"hese are called, critical activities and are said to be on criticalath .


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A 2

0 2

0 2

ritical Path $or eneral 9oundry, Inc.

*tart

B 3

0 3

1 4

C 2

2 4

2 4

D 4

3 7

4 8

F 3

4 7

10 13

E 4

4 8

4 8

G 5

8 13

8 13

H 2

13 15

13 15

9inish


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Probability o$ Project ompletion P " uses the variance o$ critical path activities to

help determine the variance o$ the overall project.I$ the activity times are statistically independent,the project variance is computed by summing thevariances o$ the critical activities@

project variance D N variances o$ activities on the critical path


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Probability o$ Project ompletion

Cence, the project variance isproject variance D 5430 G 5430 G 30430G 05430 G 5430 D 3.111

CriticalActivity

Variance

A 5430

5430

30430

05430

C 5430


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17 (ee!s& xpected ompletion

"ime'

*tandard /eviation D1.>0 (ee!s

project standard deviation D σ T D &projectvariance' 142

D &3.111' 142 D 1.>0 (ee!s


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O D &due date 6 expected date o$completion' ÷ σ T

D &10 -17 (ee!s ' ÷ 1.>0D E.7>

eneral 9oundry,Inc. E#ample

where . is the number o$ standard

deviations the due date or target datelies $rom the mean or expected date


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Probability o$ eneral 9oundry *tandard/eviation

10 (ee!s "ime

xpected "i me is 17 (ee!s

Probability&" 10

(ee!s'is >1.0Q


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(hat P " was able to Provide

"he project


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(hat P " was able to Provide

"hree activities &), /, 9' are not critical buthave some slac! time built in. "his means thatresources can be borrowed, i$ needed,

possibly to speed up the entire project.

5

A detailed schedule o$ activity starting andending dates has been made available.

7


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*ensitivity Analysis andProject Management

Predecessor /ctivit 0 one that must be completedbe$ore the given activit can be started

,uccessor /ctivit 0 an activit that can be started

onl a$ter the given activit is &nished

Parallel /ctivit 0 an activit that does not directldepend on the given activit


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*ensitivity Analysis andProject Management

ActivityTime

S(ccessorActivity

Parallel Activity Pre#ecessorActivity

arliest *tart Increase&decrease'

:o change :o change

arliest9inish

Increase&decrease'

:o change :o change

Fatest *tart Increase&decrease'

Increase&decrease'

:o change

Fatest 9inish Increase&decrease'

Increase&decrease'

:o change

*lac! :o change Increase&decrease'

:o change

ES - 92 Project Management

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