Seaweed for Natural Shelf-life Extension: A Longer Shelf ...
ERSST Cells Representing the Northeast Shelf
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Transcript of ERSST Cells Representing the Northeast Shelf
Change in Ocean Surface Thermal Habitat in a Continental Shelf
Marine Ecosystem and Its Affect on Lower Trophic Level Organisms
Kevin Friedland, Joe Kane, Janet Nye, Jon Hare, John Manderson, Michael Fogarty
From: “Long-term trends and regime shifts in sea surface temperature on the continental shelf of the northeast United States” Friedland and Hare, 2007
ERSST Cells Representing the Northeast Shelf
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
11
12
13
14
Sea
sur
face
tem
pera
ture
, °C
Year
Average SST for the Northeast Shelf, 1854-2011
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
1
2
3
4
5
Minima Maxima
Year
SS
T M
imim
a, °
C
22
23
24
25
26
27
SS
T Maxim
a, °CMinima and Maxima SST for the Northeast Shelf, 1854-2011
Thermal HabitatArea of the ocean surface within a temperature range
Extraction Region for Thermal Habitat Analysis
-1 4 9 14 19 24 291
51
101
151
201
251
301
351
Day
of t
he y
ear
Thermal habitat, °C
1.3
2.0
2.8
3.5
4.2
4.9
logarea
Annual Distribution of Thermal Habitats for the Northeast Shelf
-1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
234
5
6
78
9 101112
1314
15
16
17
181920
21
222324
25 2627
Fact
or 2
Factor 1
Principal Components of Thermal Habitats
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 280
5
10
15
20
Ther
mal
hab
itat,
km2 1
03
Thermal habitat SST, °C
Frequency Distribution of Thermal Habitats
Time Series of Thermal Habitats by PC Groupings
Mann-Kendall Test of Time Series Trend
ThermalHabitat Tested
Range (°C) Trend p1-4 Upward 0.093
5-10 Downward 0.00611-15 Downward 0.00516-20 Upward 0.08221-27 Upward 0.001
16
20
24
28
32
88
92
96
545658
6062
38
40
42
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 201018
20
22
24
(a) 1-4°C
(b) 5-10°C
(c) 11-15°C
Ther
mal
hab
iat,
km2 1
03
(d) 16-20°C
(e) 21-27°C
Northeast Shelf Plankton Surveys
Spatial Distribution of Plankton Samples (binned by 0.1°)
J F M A M J J A S O N D
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500 Stations SST
Month
Sta
tions
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22S
ea surface temperature, °C
Temporal Distribution of Plankton Samples and SST
Calanus finmarchicus
Pseudocalanus spp
Centropages typicus
Temora longicornis
Metridia lucens
Centropages hamatus
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Catch per tow, 103 100m3
Spring Fall
Principal Zooplankton Species
Pseudocalanus spp: P. moultoni and P. newmani
Mean Latitudinal Catch Trends for Principal Zooplankton SpeciesSpring Fall
Spring, Pseudocalanus sppFall, Centropages typicus
Fall, Centropages hamatus
35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
-1
0
1
Spring Calanus finmarchicus Pseudocalanus spp Centropages typicus Temora longicornis Metridia lucens Centropages hamatus
Z
Latitude, °N36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
-1
0
1
Fall Calanus finmarchicus Pseudocalanus spp Centropages typicus Temora longicornis Metridia lucens Centropages hamatus
ZLatitude, °N
Catch Weighted Latitude of Seasonal DistributionsUsing data for Feb-April (36-43°N) as indicative of spring and September-November
(37-44°N) as fall, calculate the CPUE by latitudinal bins, including zero tows, then calculate the CPUE weighted latitude of the distribution. Difference between the
spring and fall meant to represent the annual distributional excursion.
Realized Habitats of Seasonal DistributionsUsing data post-stratified by 1° bins for Feb-April (bins with 28 of 31 years of data and year with at least 27 bins) as indicative of spring and September-November
(same except at least 26 bins) as fall, calculate the bin CPUE, if CPUE>0.1 of season mean CPUE, sum the bin area.
Seasonal Stratified Area Weighted Catch Per Unit EffortUsing data post-stratified by 1° bins for Feb-April (bins with 28 of 31 years of data and year with at least 27 bins) as indicative of spring and September-November
(same except at least 26 bins) as fall, calculate the bin size-weighted CPUE, including zero tows, then log transform and take Z-score.
Realized Habitats of Seasonal
Distributions
Catch Weighted Latitude of Seasonal
Distributions
Seasonal Stratified Area Weighted Catch
Per Unit Effort
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 201050
100
150
200
250
300Calanus finmarchicus
Spring Fall
Rea
lized
hab
itat,
km2
Year1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44Calanus finmarchicus
Spring Fall
Latit
ude,
°N
Year1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3Calanus finmarchicus
Spring Fall
Abu
ndan
ce, Z
log
Year
Realized Habitats of Seasonal
Distributions
Catch Weighted Latitude of Seasonal
Distributions
Seasonal Stratified Area Weighted Catch
Per Unit Effort
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 201050
100
150
200
250
300Metridia lucens
Spring Fall
Rea
lized
hab
itat,
km2
Year1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44Metridia lucens
Spring Fall
Latit
ude,
°N
Year1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3Metridia lucens
Spring Fall
Abu
ndan
ce, Z
log
Year
Realized Habitats of Seasonal
Distributions
Catch Weighted Latitude of Seasonal
Distributions
Seasonal Stratified Area Weighted Catch
Per Unit Effort
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 201050
100
150
200
250
300Temora longicornis
Spring Fall
Rea
lized
hab
itat,
km2
Year1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44Temora longicornis
Spring Fall
Latit
ude,
°N
Year1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3Temora longicornis
Spring Fall
Abu
ndan
ce, Z
log
Year
Realized Habitats of Seasonal
Distributions
Catch Weighted Latitude of Seasonal
Distributions
Seasonal Stratified Area Weighted Catch
Per Unit Effort
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 201050
100
150
200
250
300Centropages hamatus
Spring Fall
Rea
lized
hab
itat,
km2
Year1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44Centropages hamatus
Spring Fall
Latit
ude,
°N
Year1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3Centropages hamatus
Spring Fall
Abu
ndan
ce, Z
log
Year
Realized Habitats of Seasonal
Distributions
Catch Weighted Latitude of Seasonal
Distributions
Seasonal Stratified Area Weighted Catch
Per Unit Effort
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 201050
100
150
200
250
300Centropages typicus
Spring Fall
Rea
lized
hab
itat,
km2
Year1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44Centropages typicus
Spring Fall
Latit
ude,
°N
Year1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3Centropages typicus
Spring Fall
Abu
ndan
ce, Z
log
Year
Realized Habitats of Seasonal
Distributions
Catch Weighted Latitude of Seasonal
Distributions
Seasonal Stratified Area Weighted Catch
Per Unit Effort
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3Pseudocalanus spp
Spring Fall
Abu
ndan
ce, Z
log
Year1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44Pseudocalanus spp
Spring Fall
Latit
ude,
°N
Year1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
50
100
150
200
250
300Pseudocalanus spp
Spring Fall
Rea
lized
hab
itat,
km2
Year
“The U.S. GLOBEC Georges Bank Program [1994-1999] is a large multi- disciplinary multi-year oceanographic effort. The proximate goal is to understand the population dynamics of key species on the Bank - Cod, Haddock, and two species of zooplankton (Calanus finmarchicus and Pseudocalanus) - in terms of their coupling to the physical environment and in terms of their predators and prey. The ultimate goal is to be able to predict changes in the distribution and abundance of these species as a result of changes in their physical and biotic environment as well as to anticipate how their populations might respond to climate change.”
From: “A synthesis of large-scale patterns in the planktonic prey of larval and juvenile cod (Gadus morhua)” Heath and Lough 2007
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
2.8
3.2 Georges Bank Gulf of Maine Preliminary values
Rec
ruits
to S
SB
ratio
Year
Cod Recruits to SSB Ratio
Cod Recruits versus SSB
0 20 40 60 80 1000
10
20
30
40
50Data from 2000
Age
1 R
ecru
its, 1
06
SSB, 103 mt
Georges Bank
0 5 10 15 20 250
10
20
30
40Gulf of Maine
Data from 2000
Age
1 R
ecru
its, 1
06
SSB, 103 mt
Spatial Distribution of Cod (from GMRI)
Four Index Areas to Characterize Cod, Pseudocalanus spp, and C. finmarchicus CPUE
Georges Bank (GB), Northern GOM (NGOM),Southern GOM (SGOM), Southern New England (SNE)
78°W
76°W
74°W
72°W
70°W
68°W
66°W
64°W
62°W
34°N
36°N
38°N
40°N
42°N
44°N
46°N
Normalized spring cod, Pseudocalanus spp, and C. finmarchicus CPUE
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
GB NGOM SGOM SNE
Cod
Pse
udoc
alan
us s
ppC
. fin
mar
chic
us
Year
Z-score of CPUE
Summary
There has been a condensation of the principal thermal habitats (5-15°C) of the Northeast Shelf ecosystem, and an expansion of the warm water thermal
habitats (16-27°C). The condensation of principal habitats has been intensified by the maintenance of cold water habitats (1-4°C) in the system.
Lower trophic level organisms, comprising species that are the principal prey of the early life forms of upper trophic level organisms, have responded to the
change in thermal habitat. Moist notably, the copepod Pseudocalanus spp has declined in abundance commensurate with a reduction of their thermal habitat.
Pseudocalanus spp along with Calanus finmarchicus are the principal prey of larval cod. The recruit/SSB ratio for cod has declined for the Gulf of Maine stock
and is difficult to interpret for the Georges Bank stock. A finer scale spatial analysis suggests that where Pseudocalanus spp has declined cod has not responded to management measures and where Pseudocalanus spp has
remained abundant, cod has recovered to higher stock levels.