Recognizing Clinical Reasoning Errors Heidi Chumley, MD Associate Professor, Family Medicine.
Errors in Reasoning
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Transcript of Errors in Reasoning
GD573: GraDuate seminartrenD DiaGram & essays
Errors in Reasoning
The Dangers of a Mindset
Jumping to Conclusions
Misconceptions
Wrong Generalizations
Mistaking Evidence for Proof
Circular Reasoning
False Analogies
Misusing Statistics
Relative Versus Absolute
Extreme Judgments
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Dangers of a Mindset
to wear a seat belt
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Dangers of a Mindset
personal experiences influencethe development of
our beliefs and values
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Dangers of a Mindset
mindets arepatterns of thinking
that guide the way
we react to situations
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Dangers of a Mindset
mindsets determine
what we notice andwhat we ignore
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Dangers of a Mindset
we see and hearwhat we want to
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Dangers of a Mindset
we select facts thatreinforce our ideas
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Dangers of a Mindset
... but mindsets performimportant functions
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Dangers of a Mindset
checks and balances:
examine assumptions&
play devil’s advocate
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Jumping to Conclusions
you did it
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Jumping to Conclusions
don’t have all the factsand closed to new facts
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Jumping to Conclusions
didn’t see it happendon’t know why it happened
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Jumping to Conclusions
judgment based oncircumstantial evidence
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Jumping to Conclusions
checks and balances:
assume benevolence&
ask open questions&
have the courage to be wrong
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Misconceptions
national testspredict performance
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Misconceptions
confuse the meaning ofa relational word
i.e. average
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Misconceptions
the glass ishalf full or half empty
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Misconceptions
stereotypes,prejudices, anddiscrimination
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Misconceptions
checks and balances:
define terms&
support conclusion with direct facts (not inference)
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Wrong Generalizations
pit bulls areaggressive dogs
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Wrong Generalizations
too many exceptionsto the rule
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Wrong Generalizations
biased selectionof information
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Wrong Generalizations
overgeneralizationapplied beyond its proper limits andlikely to produce wrong conclusions
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Wrong Generalizations
checks and balances:
define limitations&
contextualize statements
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Mistaking Evidence for Proof
belief that womenare inferior to men
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Mistaking Evidence for Proof
absolutely sureof generalized facts
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Mistaking Evidence for Proof
beliefs becomeself-fulfilling prophecies
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Mistaking Evidence for Proof
testimoniesare not reliable
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Mistaking Evidence for Proof
checks and balances:
identify exceptions&
evidence must be overwhelming
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Circular Reasoning
Taxation of incomeis for the common good.
Why do you say that?
Because in the long run,taxation of income isin the best interest
of all citizens.
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Circular Reasoning
rephrasethe statement you’re proving
and then
use a similar statementas proof for the original
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Circular Reasoning
“because”makes it seem as ifyou’re saying why
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Circular Reasoning
checks and balances:
“5 Why’s” activity&
list multiple effects
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
False Analogies
there areplenty of fish
in the sea
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
False Analogies
if two things aresimilar in one way,
they may also besimilar in other ways
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
False Analogies
“maybe”gets converted into
“is”
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
False Analogies
omitimportant differences
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
False Analogies
an analogies is only ahypothesis
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
False Analogies
proverbsappear to be sage advice,but can support any side
i.e.
“Make hay while the sun shines” (buy)“Haste makes waste” (don’t buy)
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
False Analogies
checks and balances:
identify assumptions&
identify concrete similarities
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Misusing Statistics
the modern plagueof ADHD
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=zDZFcDGpL4U
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Misusing Statistics
makes the informationseem accurate
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Misusing Statistics
used to arguefor special interests
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Misusing Statistics
does not includeoutliers or discounted
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Misusing Statistics
misinterpret“average”
does not give any indicationof the distribution of numbers
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Misusing Statistics
checks and balances:
learn basic statistical principles&
verify the population & methods&
look at the whole data set
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Relative Versus Absolute
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Relative Versus Absolute
subjective wordsare relative
lack established standards
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Relative Versus Absolute
checks and balances:
avoid absolutes (yes/no)&
relation to multiple examples&
plot examples along a spectrum
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Extreme Judgments
legalized in 1967
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Extreme Judgments
black and whiteinterpretations
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Extreme Judgments
convinced beyonda shadow of doubt
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Extreme Judgments
seeking justice and/or revenge
GD573: GraDuate seminar .:. trenD DiaGrams & essays
Errors in Reasoning
Extreme Judgments
checks and balances:
investigate the backstory&
see from multiple sides&
practice compassion