ERNEUERBARE ENERGIEFÖRDERUNG IN SPANIEN

ERNEUERBARE ENERGIEFRDERUNG IN SPANIENRicardo Dez

Energiesysteme und Energiewirtschaft

InhaltBegriffNotwendigkeit in SpanienGrundlagenEffektivittUrsachenMgliche LsungenZukunftSchlussfolgerung

BEGRIFFBegriffNotwendigkeit in SpanienGrundlagenEffektivittUrsachenMgliche LsungenZukunftSchlussfolgerung

BegriffAm 30. Dezember 1999 erscheint der Plan de fomento de las energas renovablesHerausgegeben von der Regierung in Zusammenarbeit mit Institutionen, die im Themenbereich spezialisiert sind

Notwendigkeit in SpanienBegriffNotwendigkeit in SpanienGrundlagenEffektivittUrsachenMgliche LsungenZukunftSchlussfolgerung

1.Klimawandel

Grfico1

52

17

13

6

11

Primrenergie in Spanien 1999

Erneuerbare Energie6%

Hoja1

Erdl52

Kohle17

Kernenergie13

Erneuerbare Energie6

Erdgas11

Hoja1

Primrenergie in spanien 1999

Hoja2

Hoja3

1.Klimawandel

2.Abhngigkeit vom AuslandVerhltnis zwischen Inlandserzeugung und Verbrauch

3.Weitere AspekteErdl kann zu schwerwiegenden Umweltverschmutzungen fhren. Beispiel Prestige in Galizien, Spain.2002Kernenergie verursacht Atommll, dessen Abbau bis zu 200.000 Jahren dauern kann. Bis heute gibt es keine berzeugende Lsung

4. Spanien eignet sich fr EEViele BergeViele FlsseBestimmte WindgebieteSonnenreiche GebieteAusgedehntes Gebiet

GrundlagenBegriffNotwendigkeit in SpanienGrundlagenEffektivittUrsachenMgliche LsungenZukunftSchlussfolgerung

Grundlagen

Ziel 2010

Grfico1

9640

2121

542

594

3

180

335

19

1852

681

500

150

Biomasse Wasserkraft >50MW Wasserkraft 10-50MW Wasserkraft 50MW2121

Wasserkraft 10-50MW542

Wasserkraft 50MW Wasserkraft 10-50MW Wasserkraft

Elektrizittserzeugung

Grfico1

35.915

27.619.4

9.733.1

9.94.1

16.928.4

2000

2011

Hoja1

20002011

Kohle35.915

Kernenergie27.619.4

Erdgas9.733.1

Erdl9.94.1

Erneuerbare Energie16.928.4

Hoja1

2000

2011

Hoja2

Hoja3

MBD000601AC.xls

Grfico2

35.914.9804674741

27.63157602519.4499384592

9.733.0812479229

9.94.1070649424

16.928.4

2000

2011

ESC. BASE

2.8%Extrap "OFICIAL"EXTRAPENINSULARCUADRO 7

1.126,9742,010canariasbaleares

37.038.224.8PeninsExtrapautoc. Autoprodtotal11,556con fuel=3522GWhEVOLUCIN DE LA DEMANDA ELCTRICA EN EL PERODO 2000-2010

113.536.538.525.0100.00demanda b.c. 2000 REE195,07610,9438,639214,658601con gas6146GWh1186 MW CC2,457675 MW CC

114.536.038.925.2100.00demanda b.c. 2001 REE205,63011,5728898226,1005.3%222368MW TURBINAGWhTasa Variacin

19,353TOTAL CC EXTRAP1,861ESTIMACIN DEMANDA GAS NATURAL2,000188,4535.9

Mtermias200520102,001197,8765.0

2,002203,8123.0

DATOS 20002,8152,9099,13821,9543,9134,6542,0234,5104751,8541,330demanda b.c. 2011 REE284,00020,773304,773USO FINAL2,003210,1313.1

20113,0063,8589,03835,3445,5937,7951,5495,6685081,8541,56729,9002,077Industria186,8092,004216,8553.2

TASA 2000/20100.60%2.60%-0.10%4.42%3.30%4.80%-2.40%2.10%0.60%0.00%1.50%Transporte2,005233,0293.34.34%

TASA AHORRO-BASE0.91%0.64%-1.02%0.42%-0.68%2.40%-4.35%1.85%4.26%-5.27%7.23%2000-2010Residencial48,5002,006241,3483.6

TASA 1996/20000.59%4.16%-1.39%9.30%0.69%7.48%-9.34%4.00%-0.22%REEExtrapeninautoc. AutoprodtotalServicios13,6392,007249,9643.6

TASA 2000/20050.60%3.50PIB(escen. Nuestro)2.98%elast PIBAgricultura1612,008258,8883.6

TASA 2005/20100.40%1.50Demanda final(GWh)2010254,10018,6969,638282,434207,700249,1092,009268,1303.6

demanda Ktep24,2893.75%1.262,010282,4343.63.92%

0-0-0-0-0-0-00-0-0-00.0000PIB 2000-20062.87%GENERACIN ELCTRICA

PIB 2006-20103.10%C. Combinado (1)127,286

AO: 2011Hulla+antracitanacionalCarbnimportadoLignitonegroLignitopardoGassiderrgicoTotalCarbnGLPCoquedepetrleoGasolinaGasleoA y BGasleoCQuerosenoFueloilNaftasLubri-cantesGas derefineraOtrosp.p.TotalPetrleoGasNaturalBiomasaSolartrmicaGeotermiaBiocar-burantesHidrulicaMinihi-drulicaElicaBiogsSolarfotovoltaicaR.S.U.TotalRenovablesNUCLEARElectricidadTOTALCogeneracin (2)32,691

79,989159,978CUADRO 8

CONSUMO FINAL DE ENERGA (ktep)Evolucin del consumo de productos petrolferos

Industria2,1176393,858001,06101,2115,6691,8541,56615,85717,9232,4010000000002,4019,00447,302Consumo de energa final.19901,995200020062,011TOTAL287,689409,087EVOLUCIN DE LA DEMANDA DE GAS EN EL PERODO 2000-2010(miles de toneladas equivalentes de petrleo)

Transporte9,03831,6297,79430641249,1805505501,41451,144200020062011%2006/2000%2011/2006%2011/2000CARBON42714,1353,5113,1312,9772,7022,4642,33425542,5732,5462,5172,4892,4612,4332,4052,3722,3392,3072,2752,2442,2132000Estructura %2010Estructura %% variacin anual

Residencial1012,1690002,2240000004,3944,5722,025202000000002,2276,20717,501ktep.Estructura %ktep.Estructura %ktep.Estructura %anualanualanualPROD. PETROLIFEROS4089342,24042,48142,99844,82646,95248,10750,1085368253,76655,58757,28459,03360,83662,69364,60766,30168,03969,82371,65373,53275,460M termiasTasa VariacinGeneracin elctrica4,4667.43,0053.8-3.9

Servicios11900002,28002600002,4961,35430166300000002007,25211,302CARBON25462.823782.122191.7-1.13-1.38-1.24GAS45314,9995,1545,1305,6476,5507,3258,162968810,93412,31913,22114,18815,22616,34117,53618,38919,28320,22121,20522,23623,317(1) Sobre la base de 14000 Mw en 20102,000169,14412.5Transporte (1):31,91353.149,18062.44.4

Agricultura09003,7152704095003,8501535000000000354114,311PROD. PETROLIFEROS5558761.66658059.47577757.63.052.622.86ELECTRICIDAD1097511,37211,48811,56911,99912,46212,82713,3311429015,30616,20716,79117,39618,02218,67119,34420,10220,89021,70922,56023,44524,364(2) gas para generacin elctrica slo.2,001182,6768.0- gasolinas9,1389,038-0.1

TOTAL CONSUMO FINAL2,2193,0073,8589,03835,3445,5927,7941,5485,6695071,8541,56675,77723,8634,49036835500000005,41224,289131,560GAS1231913.61882016.82386318.17.324.866.20EN. RENOVABLES36083,6533,6693,6683,6883,4873,4743,49135123,5333,6073,7163,8283,9434,0624,1844,3794,5834,7975,0205,2545,4992,002200,94410.0- gasleo automocin18,12132,3486.0

ELECTRICIDAD1620718.02004017.92428918.53.603.923.7564,27872,1532,003227,26713.1- querosenos aviacin4,6547,7945.3

Del cual:EN. RENOVABLES36074.043103.854124.13.014.663.762,004256,81213.0Industria13,30822.215,85720.11.8

CONSUMO FINAL (Usos Energticos) (ktep)TOTAL90266100.0112128100.0131560100.03.683.253.482,005012.00.00%Residencial, servicios y resto10,36517.310,74013.60.4

Industria000002,1174383,761001,06101,211001,854258,35017,4282,4010000000002,4019,00439,299Metodologa : A.I.E.2,00608.0TOTAL60,05210078,7821002.8

Transporte000000009,03831,62907,794306000048,76700005500000005501,41450,732Fuente: Subdireccin General de Planificacin Energtica40.43%2,00708.0

Residencial000001012,1690002,2240000004,3944,5722,025202000000002,2276,20717,5012,00808.0(1) No incluye transporte martimo internacional.

Servicios0000011900002,28002600002,4961,35430166300000002007,25211,3022,00906.5

Agricultura0000009003,715270400003,7551535000000000354114,216200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102,010436,7236.00.00%

TOTAL CONSUMO FINAL (USOS ENERGTICOS)000002,2192,8063,7619,03835,3445,5927,7941,548001,8542567,76223,3684,49036835500000005,41224,289123,050Consumo de energa final por sectores.VAB industria15,384,03815,796,50216,201,57216,671,03717,151,46717,643,07218,133,22218,636,98919,154,75219,686,89820,233,829Evolucin del consumo de carbn

puesto en el IPdefinitivohiptesis200020062011%2006/2000%2011/2006%2011/2000Ef industria34,339.6235,342.6436,374.9537,437.4138,530.9140,814.6642,036.6943,295.3044,591.6045,926.7047,301.79(miles de toneladas equivalentes de petrleo)

Y:200020002005ktep.Estructura %ktep.Estructura %ktep.Estructura %anualanualanualtep/milln pta.952.232.242.252.252.252.312.322.322.332.332.342000Estructura %2010Estructura %% variacin anual

CONSUMO FINAL (Usos NO Energticos) (ktep)3434038.0436.4Industria3434038.04081536.44730236.02.922.992.95100100.23100.58100.60100.64103.64103.86104.07104.29104.51104.73Generacin elctrica18,59888.312,14485.2-4.2

Industria00000020197000005,669001,5417,5084958,0033227235.7537.8Transporte3227235.84238437.85114438.94.653.834.27Industria2,46611.72,11714.8-1.5

Transporte000000000000004120041204122365526.2125.8Usos diversos2365526.22892925.83311425.23.412.743.11

Residencial0000000000000000000090,267TOTAL90266100.0112128100.0131560100.03.683.253.480TOTAL21,06410014,261100-3.8

Servicios00000000000000000000Metodologa: AIE

Agricultura00000000000000950095095Fuente: Subdireccin General de Planificacin Energtica

TOTAL CONSUMO FINAL (Usos NO Energticos)00000020197000005,66950701,5418,0154958,510371389

MteC.C. GWh:MW C.C en este ESCENARIO:demanda final de electricidad (GWh)282,434

8,178MW carbn nacional e importado quedaran`suponiendo 6000 horas138,88881,75215,2765.352horas CC que dice REEconsumo otra transf. Y prdidas31,977

CIcogeneracin totaldemanda b.c. (GWh)314,411INTENSIDAD ENERGTICA FINAL

CN14,502Miles toneladas suponiendo 0,585126000 GWh en 1999, 33000 GWh en 2005 y 38000 GWh en 2010Cons. Propios15,000Consumo de energa final por unidad de PIB y por habitante

21,7657,262Miles toneladas suponiendo Hulla: 0,5038con gas el 63% en 2005y el 70% en 2010:Cons. Bombeo1,92219901995200020062011

26,600GWh cogener. Con gas en 2010con bombeo=2130 GWhImp-Exp3,800PIB (*106 a precios ctes.1995)406,252437,788526,372623,641726,487

Es CI todo,32,691Mte gas cogener. factor 1,229 te / kWhsin bombeo=30967 GWhNUEVOTOTAL b.g.327,533% crecim.medio anual PIB%1995/90 = 1,5%2000/95 = 3,8%2006/00 = 2,9%2011/06 = 3,1

Incl.carbn cogenojo factor emisin1,418 te/KWhNUEV.ESCENARIOsolar termoelctrica> 10 MW< 10 MWgener. TrmicaPoblacin (Millones hab.)39.139.641.142.042.5

CONSUMOS EN GENERACION ELECTRICA O EQUIVALENTE EN E.P. (ktep)3,6598,4850012,1440000003,00500003,00515,4428,781180002,6775942,4601501968315,54416,60262,73640,205.1Carbn/PIB (tep/milln 95)10.516.174.843.813.05

id. id. GWh12,13936,9270049,06613,45213,452108,35223,24945931,1296,91228,6005462181,84692,95863,705327,533-0196,510.7P. Petrolferos/PIB100.66107.25105.60106.76104.31INTENSIDAD ENERGTICA FINAL

FACTOR0.30140.22980.24920.25910.22340.14250.37770.39220.0860.0860.0860.27470.0870.3700incl. Bombeo0.260642.0%rendim. Gener. TrmicaGas/PIB11.1514.9623.4030.1832.85Consumo de energa final por unidad de PIB y por habitante

CONSUMOS EN REFINO (ktep)0000002,800001,79404,594004,594Electricidad/PIB27.0228.4730.7932.1333.438.6%19901995200020052010

modificadomodificadofalta dato electr. En refino192En.Renovables/PIB8.887.976.856.917.45PIB (*109 ptas.1995)67,59572,84287,581102,024118,849

Energa final/PIB (tep/milln 95)158.22164.81171.49179.80181.095.6%% crecim.medio anual PIB%1995/90 = 1,5%2000/95 = 3,8%2005/00 = 3,1%2010/05 = 3,1

IMP-EXPINDICE (Ao 1990=100)100104.2108.4113.6114.5Poblacin (Millones hab.)39.039.240.141.542.3

TOTAL DEMANDA DE ENERGIA PRIMARIA (ktep)14,3633,0073,8589,03835,3445,5927,7947,3535,6695073,6481,56683,37639,30513,27154835502,6775942,4601501968320,95616,602327174,92811.98%Energa final/poblacin (tep/hab.)1.641.822.202.673.1041.0%Energa final (Ktep)64,27872,15390,266112,128131,560

11,35467,26022,9452,66316,410377134,965INDICE (Ao 1990=100)100110.8133.5162.4188.315.9%389MWh/milln .95.en 201019751980198519901995200020062011Energa final/PIB (tep/106pta.95)0.950.991.031.101.11

3,00913,956ojo bombeo incl.-6.50%Metodologa AIE358MWh/milln .95.en 200035.513738.539.139.641.14242.5INDICE (Ao 1990=100)1000.630.650.690.70

0.2408factor UNESA0.152916,619Fuente: Subdireccin General de Planificacin Energtica8.59%Energa final/poblacin (tep/hab.)1.651.842.252.703.11

3,835estructura generacin %15.0%4.1%33.1%9.5%2.1%16.8%19.4%2020.28069053710.39416786240.47715421010.571513570345.0%14.0%INDICE (Ao 1990=100)100111.9136.9164.4189.2

12,72311.6%54,917189326445835548664640.4%Metodologa AIE

0.3014Factor I D A E?Fuente: Subdireccin General de Planificacin Energtica

12.0

Factores de emisin (kt CO2/ktep)38,04161,829

Usos Energticos4.03194.03193.86123.98283.05504.03192.61414.13732.87243.07003.07002.96363.20682.76612.33705082699,829

Usos NO Energticos0.52281408961.034314050.75990421.51980840.64687497121.5658240534

Queroseno imputable a aviacin nacional (tanto por 1)0.21OJO, SON DATOS CON BIOMASA EN CARBN

2010Consumo de energa primaria.199019952000200520062010

2010 EMISIONES DE CO2 (Miles de toneladas)Hulla+antracitanacionalCarbnimportadoLignitonegroLignitopardoGassiderrgicoTotalCarbnGLPCoquedepetrleoGasolinaGasleoA y BGasleoCQuerosenoFueloilNaftasLubri-cantesGas derefineraOtrosp.p.TotalPetrleoGasNaturalTOTAL200020062011%2006/2000%2011/2006%2011/2000CARBON1897418,99219,2771825617869185191559417620178892049921,63521,63521,63521,63521,63521,63521,63521,63521,63521,63514,363

DE CONSUMO FINAL DE ENERGAktep.Estruct. %ktep.Estruct. %ktep.Estruct. %anualanualanualPETROLEO4774149,36750,46449,70951,89454,61055,43357,3966167063,04164,66364,66364,66364,66364,66364,66364,66364,66364,66364,66383,376

Industria8,5361,24915,659003,25703,8844,30805,12799734,48241,50584,523CARBON2163517.31799912.0143638.2-3.02-4.41-3.66GAS NATURAL50005,5115,8515,8296,4797,5048,40111,0571181613,53515,22315,22315,22315,22315,22315,22315,22315,22315,22315,22339,305

Transporte00025,96097,10104,851982062700129,5210129,521PETROLEO6466351.77531550.38337647.62.572.052.34NUCLEAR1413814,48414,53714,60914,41514,44914,68014,4111537615,33716,18716,18716,18716,18716,18716,18716,18716,18716,18716,18716,602

Residencial4075,6710006,82900000012,50010,68523,592GAS NATURAL1522312.22690518.03930522.59.967.889.01RENOVABLES59595,8586,0185,9786,2635,6907,3286,9977,1386,4827,0617,0617,0617,0617,0617,0617,0617,0617,0617,06120,956

Servicios34960006,99908500007,5803,16410,746NUCLEAR1621113.01657011.1166029.50.370.040.22

Agricultura0230011,4068301401440011,6703411,704ENERGIAS RENOVABLES70615.6124648.32095612.09.9310.9510.39ESC. BASE 20019181294212961479438296919100771101436107481113889118894124769124769124769124769124769124769124769124769124769124769174601

TOTAL CONSUMO FINAL8,946195,75355,387260,086SALDO ELECTR.(Imp.-Exp.)3820.33850.33850.20.130.000.07ESC. TENDENCIAL 199991,81294,21296,14794,38296,919100,771124,112136,407149,128

DE GENERACION DE ELECTRICIDAD14,75234,21200048,9640000009,63600009,63636,08994,689TOTAL125175100.0149637100.0174986100.03.023.183.09ESC. AHORRO BASE 199991,81294,21296,14794,38296,919100,771120,603128,321129,624134,971

DE REFINO0000000000008,979004,962013,941013,941Metodologa: AIE

TOTAL EMISIONES DE CO2 de Origen Energtico57,910219,33091,476368,716Fuente: Subdireccin General de Planificacin Energtica

factor

factor para0.10417para refino=FO1desconocidoHIPTESIS DE LOGRO DEL 12% DE RENOVABLES EN 2010

usos finalesnuevo con 74000.020800pongo ste para cuadrar los 149 de refinoEscenario para el carbn

Factores de emisin para usos finales(kt SO2/ktep)0.0330090.00000.135140.0000930.0000970.001930.005630.0208000.00000.00000.00980.00000.0000CONSUMO Ktep2,0002,0052,010INTENSIDAD ENERGTICA PRIMARIA

factores para generacin elctrica (t SO2/GWh bg)1.201.200.000.0013.40nacional10,4055,9522,237Consumo de energa primaria por unidad de PIB y por habitante

2010 EMISIONES DE SO2 (Miles de toneladas)Hulla+antracitanacionalCarbnimportadoLignitonegroLignitopardoGassiderrgicoTotalCarbnGLPCoquedepetrleoGasolinaGasleoA y BGasleoCQuerosenoFueloilNaftasLubri-cantesGas derefineraOtrosp.p.TotalPetrleoGasNaturalTOTALimportado11,23010,2079,18319901995200020052010

DE CONSUMO FINAL DE ENERGATOTAL21,63516,15911,420PIB (*109 ptas.1995)67,59572,84287,581102,024118,849

Industria700508002025001805540624% crecim.medio anual PIB%1995/90 = 1,5%2000/95 = 3,8%2005/00 = 3,1%2010/05 = 3,1

Transporte000130446000054054CONSUMO toneladas2,0002,0052,010Poblacin (Millones hab.)39.039.240.141.542.3

Residencial300004000000408nacional26,17011,9044,474Energa Primaria (ktep)91,812100,771125,1750174,986

Servicios000004010000505importado19,61617,59815,833Energa Prim./PIB (tep/106pta.95)1.361.381.430.001.47

Agricultura000000000000101TOTAL45,78629,50220,307INDICE (Ao 1990=100)100101.85105.230.00108.40

TOTAL CONSUMO FINAL736180691Energa Prim./poblacin (tep/hab.)2.362.573.120.004.14

DE GENERACION DE ELECTRICIDAD14.644.30.00.00591801800239Potencia instalada MW (1)2,0002,0052,010INDICE (Ao 1990=100)100109.1132.50.0175.5

DE REFINO000000000000580018076076nacional9,6726,1003,027Metodologa AIE

TOTAL EMISIONES DE SO2 de Origen Energtico13287401,006825importado2,5102,5103,310Fuente: Subdireccin General de Planificacin Energtica

TOTAL12,1828,6106,337

(1) suponiendo 6000 horas /ao de utilizacin

factor para0.00521para refinodesconocidototal ktep renovables segn PFER

usos finalesnuevo con 74000.002838pongo ste igual que FO1,9992,0062,010

Factores de emisin para usos finales(kt NOx/ktep)0.0095370.0010390.006760.0199030.033290.00250.007510.0028380.00000.00000.0028380.00000.00007,11511,91816,640

factores para generacin elctrica (t NOx/GWh bg)2.502.502.502.503.401.5% s/Ep9.212.3

2010 EMISIONES DE NOx (Miles de toneladas)Hulla+antracitanacionalCarbnimportadoLignitonegroLignitopardoGassiderrgicoTotalCarbnGLPCoquedepetrleoGasolinaGasleoA y BGasleoCQuerosenoFueloilNaftasLubri-cantesGas derefineraOtrosp.p.TotalPetrleoGasNaturalTOTALBALANCE DE ENERGA EN AO HIDRULICO MEDIO (GWh b.c.)9.69.9

DE CONSUMO FINAL DE ENERGAEscenario:Estimacin del gas natural empleado en generacin elctrica por cogeneracin (1)

Industria200250030300503705719923552

Transporte0001801,053059100001,29201,2922000201119935590

Residencial120006000000809Carbn35.915.019946959

Servicios000006000000606Nuclear27.619.419957799

Agricultura000012400000001240124Gas natural9.733.119969694

TOTAL CONSUMO FINAL211,46701,488Productos Petrolferos9.94.1199712175.4

DE GENERACION DE ELECTRICIDAD30.392.30.00.00.012346460168Energas Renovables16.928.4199816515.2

DE REFINO000000000000110015026026199921060

TOTAL EMISIONES DE NOx de Origen Energtico1441,53801,682200021912

2001

2002

2003

2004

200525500

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

201132,691

199019982010

100108114

100134162

PIB (*109 ptas.1995)67,59572,84287,581102,024118,849

INTENSIDAD ENERGTICA PRIMARIA

Consumo de energa primaria por unidad de PIB y por habitante

19901995200020062011

PIB (*106 a precios ctes.1995)406,252437,788526,372623,641726,487199019982010

% crecim.medio anual PIB%1995/90 = 1,5%2000/95 = 3,8%2006/00 = 2,9%2011/06 = 3,1100105106

Poblacin (Millones hab.)39.039.641.142.042.5100129151

Carbn/PIB (tep/milln 95)46.7142.3041.1028.8619.77

Petroleo/PIB117.52124.74122.85120.77114.77

Gas natural/PIB12.3117.1428.9243.1454.10

Nuclear/PIB34.8033.0030.8026.5722.85

Renovables/PIB14.6713.0013.4119.9928.850.9%

Energa Prim./PIB (tep/milln 95)226.00230.18237.81239.94240.871.3%

INDICE (Ao 1990=100)100101.85105.23106.17106.58

Energa Prim./poblacin (tep/hab.)2.362.543.043.564.1229.2%

INDICE (Ao 1990=100)100108.0129.2151.2174.735.2%

Metodologa AIE17.0%

Fuente: Subdireccin General de Planificacin Energtica15.6%

-6.17

EMISIONES DE CO2 DE ORIGEN ENERGETICO (Mt)

199020002010% total 2000/1990% total 2010/2000% total 2010/1990

Industria48.860.584.524.0%39.7%73.2%199019982010

Transporte60.584.4129.539.6%53.4%114.2%0.02726899220.028224Industria48.850.133808627951.500907065952.905284900554.347958703555.829972767157.352399860858.91634200760.562.231125271363.987531182965.793509743567.650460087169.559820837171.523071220273.541732212875.617367719177.751585782979.946039833282.202429965385

Gener.elctrica64.795.194.747.0%-0.4%46.4%0.04261203780.036303Transporte60.563.043622091165.730039300268.530930221171.451172811774.495852890277.670272991380.979961601884.487.49576920590.672127429793.963796962197.3749639478100.9099665019104.573300226108.3696239256112.3037655348116.3807282561120.6056969231124.9840445946130

Refino de petrleo10.014.013.940.2%-0.4%39.6%0.0493279838-0.000361Gener.elctrica y refino74.778.365912485782.231544946986.287861263490.544267485495.010633644699.6973166414104.61518426195.195.065707607895.031427581394.997159915994.962904607194.928661650694.894431041994.860212776494.826006849994.791813257794.757631995594.723463058995

Residencial11.315.923.640.2%48.4%108.1%0.07450735-0.016557Resto24.225.980513214927.916252405429.996218393132.231157134734.632615239237.212999623239.985641609514.314.063241028613.83040197413.601417935813.376225088313.154760662212.936962927612.722771176912.512125707112.304967804212.101239725811.900884685912

Servicios4.87.010.746.0%53.5%124.2%

Agricultura8.014.311.777.7%-18.2%45.4%

Total208.1291.3368.739.9%26.6%77.2%

ESCENARIO BASE (pib + 2,97%. Elast. Elctr. 1,26. PFER)ESCENARIO BASE

(Demanda gas ENAGAS excepto C.C.. Demanda elctrica REE + hiptesis extrap. 5%)HIPOTESIS:

- CONTINUIDAD DEL CRECIMIENTO ECONMICO ALTO (+3,1% medio anual)

RESUMEN DE RESULTADOS- CRECIMIENTO DE LA POBLACIN SIGNIFICATIVO EN EL ESTRATO DE MAYOR DEMANDA ENERGTICA (+2,2 millones)

- CONTINUIDAD EN EL CRECIMIENTO DE LA ACTIVIDAD INDUSTRIAL (no deslocalizacin de sectores intensivos en demanda energtica)

- LA INTENSIDAD ENERGTICA FINAL CRECE UN 5,1% EN 2000-2010- ELASTICIDAD DE LA DEMANDA ELCTRICA SOBRE PIB POR ENCIMA DE LA UNIDAD.

- CONSECUCIN DE LOS OBJETIVOS DEL PLAN DE FOMENTO DE ENERGAS RENOVABLES.

- LA INTENSIDAD ENERGTICA PRIMARIA BAJA UN 0,5% EN 2000-2010

RESUMEN DE RESULTADOS

- EL GAS ALCANZA EN 2010:- LA INTENSIDAD ENERGTICA FINAL CRECE UN 3,4% EN 2000-2010 (Aumento del 3,45 anual del consumo final)

- EL 17,6% DE LA ENERGA FINAL- LA INTENSIDAD ENERGTICA PRIMARIA BAJA UN 1,4% EN 2000-2010 (Aumento del 2,96% anual del consumo primario)

- EL 21,5% DE LA ENERGA PRIMARIA

- EL 31,1% EN LA ESTRUCTURA DE GENERACIN- EL GAS ALCANZA EN 2010:

- EL 17,7% DE LA ENERGA FINAL (el 13,6% en 2000)

- LAS RENOVABLES ALCANZAN EN 2010:- EL 22% DE LA ENERGA PRIMARIA (el 12,2% en 2000)

- EL 4,1% DE LA ENERGA FINAL- EL 32,5% EN LA ESTRUCTURA DE GENERACIN (el 9,7% en 2000)

- EL 9,8% DE LA ENERGA PRIMARIA

- EL 24,2% EN LA ESTRUCTURA DE GENERACIN- LAS RENOVABLES ALCANZAN EN 2010:

- EL 4,1% DE LA ENERGA FINAL (4% en 2000)

- EL CO2 DERIVADO DE LA ENERGA SUBE EN 2010 UN 77,1% SOBRE 1990- EL 9,9% DE LA ENERGA PRIMARIA (5,6% en 2000)

- EL 24,5% EN LA ESTRUCTURA DE GENERACIN (16,9% en 2000)

- EL CARBN ALCANZA EN 2010:

40.8- EL 8,7% DE LA ENERGA PRIMARIA (el 17,3% en 2000)

15.6- EL 16,2% EN LA ESTRUCTURA DE GENERACIN (el 35,9% en 2000)

25.2- CONSUME 21,8 Mt (40,8 Mt en 2000)

- EL PETRLEO ALCANZA EN 2010:

- EL 58,3% DE LA ENERGA FINAL (el 61,6% en 2000)

- EL 50,1% DE LA ENERGA PRIMARIA (el 51,7% en 2000)

ESCENARIOS DE EMISIONES SUPONIENDO QUE NINGUNA CENTRAL SE ACOGE A LA CLUSULA DE 20.000 HORAS.

2000200020102010

ProduccinEmisiones (Miles de t)ProduccinEmisiones (Miles de t)

ESCENARIO BASEGWhSO2NOXGWhSO2NOX

CARBN79,15391425450,15160125

FUEL/GAS (CENTRALES CONVENCIONALES)26,09576313,000-2

GAS NATURAL (CICLOS COMBINADOS)--74,923-45

COGENERACIN (> 50MW)3,000-24,500-4

NUCLEAR62,206--63,705--

HIDROELCTRICA31,806--38,041--

RGIMEN ESPECIAL PENINS. Y CANARIAS, CyM22,867no includono includo93,213no includono includo

TOTAL225,127990287327,53360176

20102010

ProduccinEmisiones (Miles de t)

ESCENARIO REEGWhSO2NOX

CARBN53,15264133

GAS NATURAL (CENTRALES CONVENCIONALES)3,000-2

GAS NATURAL (CICLOS COMBINADOS)64,220-39

COGENERACIN (> 50MW)4,500-4

NUCLEAR58,524--

HIDROELCTRICA31,248--

RGIMEN ESPECIAL PENINS. Y CANARIAS, CyM74,108no includono includo

TOTAL288,75264177

20102010


ESCENARIO ENAGASGWhSO2NOX

CARBN45,59955114




NUCLEAR58,524--


RGIMEN ESPECIAL PENINS. Y CANARIAS, CyM66,405no includono includo

TOTAL288,75255168

ESCENARIOS DE EMISIONES SUPONIENDO QUE EL 25% DE LA PRODUCCIN DE CARBN PROCEDE DE CC.TT.

CC.TT. ACOGIDAS A LA CLUSULA DE 20.000 HORAS.

2000200020102010

ProduccinEmisiones (Miles de t)ProduccinEmisiones (Miles de t)

ESCENARIO BASEGWhSO2NOXGWhSO2NOX

CARBN79,15391425450,15160135

FUEL/GAS (CENTRALES CONVENCIONALES)26,09576313,000-2

GAS NATURAL (CICLOS COMBINADOS)--74,923-45

COGENERACIN (> 50MW)3,000-24,500-4

NUCLEAR62,206--58,524--

HIDROELCTRICA31,806--38,041--

RGIMEN ESPECIAL PENINS. Y CANARIAS, CyM22,867no incluidono incluido82,656no incluidono incluido

TOTAL225,127990287311,79560186

20102010


ESCENARIO REEGWhSO2NOX

CARBN53,15264144




NUCLEAR58,524--


RGIMEN ESPECIAL PENINS. Y CANARIAS, CyM74,108no incluidono incluido

TOTAL288,75264188

20102010


ESCENARIO ENAGASGWhSO2NOX

CARBN45,59955123




NUCLEAR58,524--


RGIMEN ESPECIAL PENINS. Y CANARIAS, CyM66,405no incluidono incluido

TOTAL288,75255177

ESC. BASE

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

CARBON

PROD. PETROLIFEROS

GAS

ELECTRICIDAD

EN. RENOVABLES

Ktep

Consumo de energa final

resumen gener. elctr.

00

00

00

00

00

2000

2011

%

Estructura de generacin (% sobre total generacin bruta)

00

00

00

00

00

Energa final/PIB (tep/milln 95)

Energa final/poblacin (tep/hab.)

tep/milln 95

tep/habitante

Intensidad energtica final

00

00

00

00

00

Energa Prim./PIB (tep/milln 95)

Energa Prim./poblacin (tep/hab.)

tep/milln 95

tep/habitante

Intensidad energtica primaria

0000000

0000000

0000000

Industria

Transporte

Gener.elctrica

Refino de petrleo

Residencial

Servicios

Agricultura

Mt

Emisiones de CO2 derivadas de la transformacin y consumo de energa

91811.891811.891811.8

942129421294212

961479614796147

94381.594381.594381.5

96919.496919.496919.4

100771.3100771.3100771.3

101435.7

107481

113889

118894

124769124112120603

124769

124769

124769

124769

124769136407128321

1247692006129624.257412139

124769

124769

124769

174601.10958431149128134971

135 Mtep

149

167

ESC. BASE 2001

ESC. TENDENCIAL 1999

ESC. AHORRO BASE 1999

Ktep

ESCENARIOS DE EVOLUCIN DE LA DEMANDA ENERGTICA PRIMARIA

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

millones de habitantes

Evolucin de la poblacin en Espaa

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

ao

Millones de termias

Estimacin del gas natural empleado en generacin elctrica por cogeneracin (excluyendo el empleado en la parte trmica)

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

129,6 MtepEn. Renovables 9,2% de la Energa Primaria

148 MtepEn. Renovables 8,1% dela Energa Primaria

ESC. BASE 2001

ESC. AHORRO BASE 1999

Ktep

ESCENARIOS DE EVOLUCIN DE LA DEMANDA ENERGTICA PRIMARIAY PESO DE LAS ENERGAS RENOVABLES

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

000000

120,6

124,8

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

CARBON

PETROLEO

GAS NATURAL

NUCLEAR

RENOVABLES

Ktep

Consumo de energa primaria

100100

104.1654505425110.8341536338

108.3838503504133.5417859188

113.6521789099162.4218566481

114.4535740376188.2997528445

E.Final/PIB

E.final/habitante

Indice (1990=100)

Intensidad energtica(Energa Final/PIB y Energa Final/habitante)

00

00

00

00

00

E.Primaria/PIB

E.Primaria/habitante

Indice (1990=100)

Intensidad energtica(Energa Primaria/PIB y Energa Primaria/habitante)

Hulla+antracitanacionalCarbnimportadoTotalCarbnFueloilTotalPetrleoGasNaturalBiomasaSolartermoel.HidrulicaMinihi-drulicaElicaBiogsSolarfotovoltaicaR.S.U.TotalRenovablesNUCLEARTOTAL

CONSUMOS EN GENERACION ELECTRICA O EQUIVALENTE EN E.P. (ktep)3,6598,48512,1443,0053,00515,4428,7811802,6775942,4601501968315,54416,60262,736

GWh12,13936,92749,06613,45213,452108,35223,24945931,1296,91228,6005462181,84692,95863,705327,533

miles toneladas7,26214,502Potencia C.C. MW15,276

potencia MW8,178Prod. GWh C.C.81,752

Consumo gas C.C. Mte138,888

GWh cogener. con gas26,600

Consumo gas cogener.

slo parte elctrica32,691

GWh cogener. Total38000

milespotenciaPFERNUEVO ESCENARIO

2010CONSUMOS EN GENERACION ELECTRICA O EQUIVALENTE EN E.P. (ktep)GWhtoneladasMW2010ktepktep

actual 41000actual 12182Biomasa5,2697,981

Total Carbn12,14449,06621,7658,178Solar termoel.180380

Prod. Petrolferos3,00513,452slo extrapeninsularHidrulica2,6772,677

Gas Natural15,442108,352slo peninsular. Ver desgloseMinihidrulica594594

Biomasa8,78123,249Elica1,8522,460

Solar termoel.180459Biogs150150

Hidrulica2,67731,129Solar fotovoltaica1919

Minihidrulica5946,912R.S.U.683683

Elica2,46028,600Total Renovables11,42414,944

Biogs150546

Solar fotovoltaica19218

R.S.U.6831,8463,519

Total Renovables15,54492,958De acuerdo al PFER

Nuclear16,60263,705igual a produccin actual

TOTAL 201062,736327,533

actual 48300actual 205629

Imp-Exp3,800

Cons. Bombeo1,922

Cons. Propios15,000

demanda b.c. (GWh)314,411

Demanda b.c. REE284,000

Demanda b.c. extrapeninsular20,773

Autoconsumo autoproductores9,638

consumo otra transf. Y prdidas31,977

demanda final de electricidad (GWh)282,434199578 en 2001, incr.3,75% desde 2000

Consumo gas cogener.

Potencia C.C. MWProd. GWh C.C.Consumo gas C.C. MteGWh cogener. con gasslo parte elctrica MteGWh cogener. Total

15,27681,752138,88826,60032,69138000

PLAN DE FOMENTO DE LAS ENERGAS RENOVABLES

potencia MWproduccin GWh

Biomasa1,89713,949

Solar termoel.200459

Hidrulica16,57131,129

Minihidrulica2,2306,912

Elica (*)13,00021,5388974MW en el PFER2400 horasponemos 2200 horas en nuevo escenario de 13000

Biogs78546

Solar fotovoltaica14421828600GWh elica

R.S.U.2621,846

Total Renovables34,38276,597

(*) Potencia superior a la prevista en el PFER, estimada a efectos de planificacin de redes.

La produccin elica es la fijada en el PFER.

13415 MW REE peninsular y 1861 MW de Baleares y Canarias dicho por ellos

Investitionen

Hilfe fr Stromerzeuger von Erneuerbarer EnergieSie knnen ihren Strom verkaufen:

mit einem festen Preis den die Regierung festlegt

Mit dem Marktpreis+Prmie+Motivation (z.B. Windkraft)

EfektivittBegriffNotwendigkeit in SpanienGrundlagenEffektivittUrsachenMgliche LsungenZukunftSchlussfolgerung

Aktuelle SituationNur Windenergie erfllt Erwar-tungenAlle anderen erreichen das Ziel nicht

Neue Verordnung 2004Antwort auf die UneffizienzSie versucht die Situation mit dem Erzeuger zu verbessernSie frdert besonders Windkraft und Photovoltaik (bis 100kW)Keine gleiche Frderung von Biomasse

z.B. photovoltaische Energie

z.B. WindkraftMarktpreis + 40% Prmie + 10% MotivationDieses System funkionert zur Zeit sehr gut in Spanien, Deutschland und DnemarkEs ist auch mglich den Strom zum Festpreis, den die Regierung festlegt ( z.B. 90%-5Jahre, 80% die anderen Jahre fr

Prmien

UrsachenBegriffNotwendigkeit in SpanienGrundlagenEffektivittUrsachenMgliche LsungenZukunftSchlussfolgerung

UrsachenLanger Weg durch die Brokratie, bis eine Anlage in Betrieb genommen werden kann.Anpassung an das NetzAlte Regelung (1985). Eine neue ist in ArbeitMangelnde Infrastruktur

Wachstum der NachfragePrimrenergie/PIBPrimrenergie/Einwohner

Wachstum der Nachfrage

TPE y GDP

0.16370.22750.3793

0.16010.21370.3206

0.16220.1960.2953

0.17280.18980.2843

0.17180.18120.2643

0.17370.17660.2559

Spanien

UE

USA

Energa primaria total/PIB $95 PPC

tpe y poblacin

1.82823.40297.9554

1.86753.42787.4703

2.33033.61437.7029

2.63013.68427.93

3.00543.82898.3151

3.12773.85848.3496

Spanien

EU

USA

tep/Einwohner

Primrenergie/Einwohner

datos

Energa primaria total/PIB $95PPC19601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000

Spanien0.11240.10670.10620.10070.10590.10540.10980.11870.1270.12450.13070.14040.13660.14630.14980.15360.15930.15240.16060.16290.16370.16640.15960.15860.15980.16010.15810.15350.15780.16570.16220.16510.1680.16450.1690.17280.1660.16930.17020.17180.1737

EU0.22070.21650.22130.22740.22440.22410.22190.22330.22730.23130.25590.25430.25450.25530.24610.2380.24270.2360.23580.2380.22750.22040.21260.20980.21070.21370.2110.20890.20280.20.1960.1980.19370.19450.19060.18980.1930.18710.18520.18120.1766

USA0.42910.42360.4210.42590.41930.41330.41250.41960.42260.43090.44890.44240.44120.43520.42880.41760.4220.41820.40730.39370.37930.360.35210.33810.32910.32060.310.31280.31210.30610.29530.29880.29560.29440.28760.28430.2810.2740.2660.26430.2559

Fuente : AIE

Primrenergie/Einwohner (tep per capita)19601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000

Spanien0.52830.55470.60250.62050.68060.71160.78610.87610.98741.04381.13211.26071.31481.50491.6111.64461.74091.69261.78991.79991.82821.8451.78711.80641.84011.86751.89751.94172.09372.2982.33032.42212.47562.39132.50732.63012.58372.73552.86463.00543.1277

EU1.72211.76361.87371.99462.06622.13672.18192.25352.3992.57552.97133.033.15033.33163.263.123.31823.29933.3853.52693.40293.29473.20063.21373.30183.42783.47133.52663.55663.61513.61433.68183.62733.6123.62533.68423.79943.76813.82623.82893.8584

USA5.65215.62345.78796.00066.15186.32376.60876.83117.09787.35777.59367.67097.96958.19327.93747.68848.13218.3248.46778.3577.95547.65917.26967.2137.45737.47037.40777.6567.88467.92977.70297.67177.73857.83197.88517.938.04628.11878.15228.31518.3496

Fuente : AIE

Wachstum der Nachfrage

TPE y GDP

0.16370.22750.3793

0.16010.21370.3206

0.16220.1960.2953

0.17280.18980.2843

0.17180.18120.2643

0.17370.17660.2559

Spanien

EU

USA

primrenergiel/PIB

tpe y poblacin

1.82823.40297.9554

1.86753.42787.4703

2.33033.61437.7029

2.63013.68427.93

3.00543.82898.3151

3.12773.85848.3496

Espaa

Unin Europea

Estados Unidos

Energa primaria total/poblacin

datos

Energa primaria total/PIB $95PPC19601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000

Spanien0.11240.10670.10620.10070.10590.10540.10980.11870.1270.12450.13070.14040.13660.14630.14980.15360.15930.15240.16060.16290.16370.16640.15960.15860.15980.16010.15810.15350.15780.16570.16220.16510.1680.16450.1690.17280.1660.16930.17020.17180.1737

EU0.22070.21650.22130.22740.22440.22410.22190.22330.22730.23130.25590.25430.25450.25530.24610.2380.24270.2360.23580.2380.22750.22040.21260.20980.21070.21370.2110.20890.20280.20.1960.1980.19370.19450.19060.18980.1930.18710.18520.18120.1766

USA0.42910.42360.4210.42590.41930.41330.41250.41960.42260.43090.44890.44240.44120.43520.42880.41760.4220.41820.40730.39370.37930.360.35210.33810.32910.32060.310.31280.31210.30610.29530.29880.29560.29440.28760.28430.2810.2740.2660.26430.2559

Fuente : AIE

Energa primaria total/poblacin (tep per capita)19601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000

Espaa0.52830.55470.60250.62050.68060.71160.78610.87610.98741.04381.13211.26071.31481.50491.6111.64461.74091.69261.78991.79991.82821.8451.78711.80641.84011.86751.89751.94172.09372.2982.33032.42212.47562.39132.50732.63012.58372.73552.86463.00543.1277

Unin Europea1.72211.76361.87371.99462.06622.13672.18192.25352.3992.57552.97133.033.15033.33163.263.123.31823.29933.3853.52693.40293.29473.20063.21373.30183.42783.47133.52663.55663.61513.61433.68183.62733.6123.62533.68423.79943.76813.82623.82893.8584

Estados Unidos5.65215.62345.78796.00066.15186.32376.60876.83117.09787.35777.59367.67097.96958.19327.93747.68848.13218.3248.46778.3577.95547.65917.26967.2137.45737.47037.40777.6567.88467.92977.70297.67177.73857.83197.88517.938.04628.11878.15228.31518.3496

Fuente : AIE

UrsachenBestimmte Gruppierungen stellen sich dagegenWettbewerb durch unabhngige Unternehmen, die hnliche Entwicklungen vermarktenWirtschaftliche Untersttzung bleibt bestehen, welche die Vorherrschaft der fossilen Energie trgt.

Mgliche LsungenBegriffNotwendigkeit in SpanienGrundlagenEffektivittUrsachenMgliche LsungenZukunftSchlussfolgerung

Mgliche LsungenVerbesserung der Effizienz der VerwaltungMehr Investitionen zur Frderung von Prmien und FestpreisGesetze zum Gebrauch fossiler BrennstoffeErneuerbaren Energien in Spanien mehr Aufmerksamkeit schenken, wie Wind- (Off-shore) und Sonnenenergie

ZukunftBegriffWarum ist das notwendig in Spanien?GrundlagenEffektivittUrsachenMgliche LsungenZukunftSchlussfolgerung

Keine gnstigen AussichtenWenn keine Vernderung eintritt, erfllt der Frderungsplan nicht annhernd seine VorstzeNur die Windernergie knnte die Mngel der anderen kompensieren.

Neues ZielDie Regierung arbeitet an Vernderungen des PlanesDie zunehmende Energienachfrage und die aktuelle Situation von Erneuerbarer Energie verursachen neue ZieleDiese Vernderung wird in diesem Sommer umgesetzt werden

Neu Ziel

Grfico1

900020000

143500

200500

4.85

22002200

19002000

43765000

5002500

altes Ziel

Neues Ziel

Hoja1

Windkraft900020000

Photovoltaik143500

Solarthermik200500

Solar thermische4.85

Wasser-kraftwerk

SchlussfolgerungBegriffWarum ist das notwendig in Spanien?Bases del PlanEfectividadUrsachenMgliche LsungenZukunftSchlussfolgerung

SchlussfolgerungKein Bewusstsein der ffentlichkeit ber die Bedeutung der erneuerbaren EnergienDie Regierung muss baldmglichst fr Abhilfe sorgenEs kann zu einem ersten Problem des Staates werden

Literaturwww.appa.es

www.idae.es

www.energias-renovables.com

www.cne.es

ERNEUERBARE ENERGIEFÖRDERUNG IN SPANIEN

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