Ernesto Ochoa - Tennessee Gas Pipeline...Mexico Energy Reform 11 Oil & Gas Production Open to...

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Mexico, a New Landscape Ernesto Ochoa Tennessee Gas Pipeline September 14, 2017

Transcript of Ernesto Ochoa - Tennessee Gas Pipeline...Mexico Energy Reform 11 Oil & Gas Production Open to...

Mexico, a New Landscape

Ernesto OchoaTennessee Gas Pipeline

September 14, 2017

Forward-Looking Statements

This presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995

and Section 21E of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934. These forward-looking statements are identified as any statement that

does not relate strictly to historical or current facts. In particular, statements, express or implied, concerning future actions, conditions or

events, future operating results or the ability to generate revenues, income or cash flow or to pay dividends are forward-looking

statements. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Future

actions, conditions or events and future results of operations of Kinder Morgan, Inc. may differ materially from those expressed in these

forward-looking statements. Many of the factors that will determine these results are beyond Kinder Morgan's ability to control or

predict. These statements are necessarily based upon various assumptions involving judgments with respect to the future, including,

among others, the timing and extent of changes in the supply of and demand for the products we transport and handle; national,

international, regional and local economic, competitive and regulatory conditions and developments; the timing and success of

business development efforts; technological developments; condition of capital and credit markets; inflation rates; interest rates; the

political and economic stability of oil producing nations; energy markets; weather conditions; environmental conditions; business,

regulatory and legal decisions; terrorism, including cyber-attacks; and other uncertainties. There is no assurance that any of the

actions, events or results of the forward-looking statements will occur, or if any of them do, what impact they will have on our results of

operations or financial condition. Because of these uncertainties, you are cautioned not to put undue reliance on any forward-looking

statement. Please read "Risk Factors" and "Information Regarding Forward-Looking Statements" in our most recent Annual Report on

Form 10-K and our subsequently filed Exchange Act reports, which are available through the SEC’s EDGAR system at www.sec.gov

and on our website at www.kindermorgan.com.

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The Big Picture

Dramatic supply growth continuesMarcellus, Utica, Permian, Eagle Ford….. Unconventional = the “new” conventional?

Gas demand continues growth trajectoryUS economy : power gen residential / industrial Exports : LNG; Mexico

Infrastructure impetusNew sources new plumbing supply to marketMexico Energy Reform

3

4

U.S. becomes net exporter Industrial demand growth

Less Canadian Exports to U.S. More U.S. Exports to MexicoContinued supply increases

Gas-fired generation increases

Source: ICF International and Kinder Morgan Analysis

+9.6 BcfdRes +1.9 Bcfd

+20.1 Bcfd +1.5 Bcfd-2.0 Bcfd

+7.7 BcfdInd +3.1 Bcfd

Current Key Trends

Natural Gas Supply

5

BCF/d

Source: ICF International and Kinder Morgan Analysis

Key Natural Gas Basins

Well-positioned connecting key natural gas resources with major demand centers

__________________________

(a) Includes KM share of non-wholly owned projects. Includes

projects currently under construction. 6

Demand

7Source: ICF International and Kinder Morgan Analysis

Flow Changes

8Source: ICF International and Kinder Morgan Analysis

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SENER Forecasts demand in

Mexico to grow by 1.3 Bcfd

between 2016 and 2026

Imports are forecasted to grow by 850

MMcfd between 2016 and 2026

Production in Mexico is forecasted to

grow 460 MMcfd from 2016 to 2026

24 GW of renewable power

generation capacity being

installed between 2016 and 2030

No natural gas storage in Mexico

Mexico Supply Demand Forecast

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Regional Demand Growth

Noreste

Noroeste

Centro-

Occidente

Centro

Sur-Sureste

Source: SENER

+440

+380

+700

-20 -230

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Dem

and

(m

mp

cd)

Regional Demand Forecasts

Noroeste Noreste Centro-Occidente Centro Sur-Sureste

Mexico Energy Reform

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Oil & Gas ProductionOpen to private investment

ElectricityMore merchant generation.

Gas TransmissionShipper direction

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018New CENACE - Electricity Market Commences

CENAGAS formed

Round 0 Bidding

Round 1 Bidding

Additional bidding rounds

CENAGAS Operating Gas Pipelines

Energy Reform Authorized via

change to Mexico’s Constitution

Market-based gas pricing

Petroleum product prices deregulated

Mexico auctions pipeline capacity

Open / Competitive Natural Gas Market

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Law Pipeline Capacity

Natural Gas Supply

Storage / Balancing

Transparent Pricing at “Liquid” HUBS

Need all to have a successful market

Kinder Morgan / Mexico –Strong History

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• Capital Invested since 2013

• Current supply to Mexico

• Authorized Export Capacity

• Interconnect• 12 Direct

• 4 Indirect

16 3.1

6672.9$MillionsBCF/d

BCF/d

Kinder Morgan Supply Points

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A

B C DE

F G

HI

J

K L

1Capacity is based on North Baja pipeline which receives gas from EPNG2Capacity based on Tejas, NGPL, and TGP delivery point capacities to NET Mexico

EPNG

NGPL

Midstream

TGP

Sierrita

Export Points Capacity

North Baja 5001

Sierrita 200

Nogales 9

Willmex + Monument 187

El Fresnal 199

Douglas 117

Samalayuca + Cactus Hill 910

Border 300

Texas/Monterrey 700

Tejas to NET 7122

TGP Pemex 185

TGP Rio Bravo 320

TGP to NET 5132

NGPL to NET 5002

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

J

K

L

M

N

MN

STRONG CONECTIVITY

MEXICO

Exports to Mexico

TGP Supply Diversity

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NET Mexico

Rio BravoReynosa

Marcellus19.8 Bcf/d

Haynesville6.7 Bcf/d

Eagle Ford6.4 Bcf/d

Fayetteville1.1 Bcf/d

Utica4.6 Bcf/d

Barnett3.4 Bcf/d

• TGP touches > 42 Bcf/d of diverse shale supply basins• ~ 2 Bcf/d of northeast supply flows through Sta. 87• Average flowing supply (2017): 8.6 Bcf/d• Deliveries to Mexico at ~ 1 Bcf/d

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TGP Exports to Mexico

(300,000)

(200,000)

(100,000)

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016

Dth

Pemex Net Flows

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1/1/2005 1/1/2006 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016

Dth

Rio Bravo Deliveries

TGP Exports to Mexico

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TGP Export ts

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Dth

/d

NET Deliveries

TGP Exports to Mexico

MX Import Demand vs. Import Pipe Capacity

19

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Bcf

/d

CA AZ West TX South TX Imports (Forecast)

US Exports Points to Mexico

More Supply Needed at Agua Dulce

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Growing Demand

~3 BCF/d Supply Deficit

Valley Crossing 2.6 Bcf/d (Oct-18)

Agua Dulce

NET Mexico2.1 Bcf/d TETCO

0.3 Bcf/d

Capacity ~5.4 Bcf/d +

Local Supply 1.2 Bcf/d

TGP0.5 Bcf/d

2019 Demand 9.6 Bcf/d

LNG2.1 Bcf/d

KM Border / Mier1.0 Bcf/d

Other1.0 Bcf/d

Gulf Coast Express Pipeline

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Delaware Basin

Midland Basin

KATY MARKETS

LNG EXPORTS

Adds much needed

supply into South Texas

1.8 BCF/d

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Kinder Morgan Border Expansion

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150,000 Dth/d19

Thank You