Eritrea's Indc Report Sep2015

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The State of Eritrea Eritrea’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) Report September 2015 Asmara, Eritrea

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Eritrea's Indc Report Sep2015

Transcript of Eritrea's Indc Report Sep2015

Page 1: Eritrea's Indc Report Sep2015

The State of Eritrea

Eritrea’s Intended Nationally

Determined Contributions (INDCs) Report

September 2015

Asmara, Eritrea

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Executive Summary

Eritrea had ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in

1995. Moreover, as follow up to the Warsaw proposal followed by the Lima call for climate

action, Eritrea has prepared its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) for the

period 2020-2030with the view that global determination to tackle the effects of climate change

calls for commitment from all parties with regard to mitigation, adaptation and implementation.

In developing its INDC, Eritrea undertook a broad stakeholders representation and consultation

processes. This process allowed for the baseline assessment, and review of policies and

programs that are being implemented by the Government of the State of Eritrea to combat global

warming and for the level of ambition to which the country wants to commit in its INDC.

In the mitigation, the main gases covered are CO2, CH4 and N2O. Key sectors that contribute to the

greenhouse gases emission are: Energy, Transport, Industry, Waste, Forestry and Agriculture.

Vulnerable sectors to impacts of climate change that need adaption measures include

Agriculture, Marine resources, Health, water and land resources.

In 2010, the total greenhouse gases emission estimated using the GACMO model amounts to

ktCO2 3972, whereas, the business as usual scenario of GHGs emission in the year 2030

isexpected to be ktCO2 6331.

The country focussing on the energy sector assumes two scenarios, in the mitigation of the

greenhouse gases emission plans for the next 15 years: reducing by 39.2% unconditionally and

80.6 % in the conditional scenario assuming external assistance compared to the business as

usual scenarios.

The INDCs also presents concrete measures and steps that need to be taken in the

implementation the projects and programs. These include, capacity building, technology transfer,

financial support and partnership with regional and international agencies involved in climate

change.

To ensure effective implementation of the INDC program, M & E tools are proposed. This

includes periodic monitoring of the activities stipulated in the project documents so as to verify

the right direction towards the intended outcome in mitigation and adaption.

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1. National Context

1.1 Rationale and Process for Developing INDCs Eritrea is located in the Horn of Africa, lying between 12022′, and 18002′north and between 360

26′ and 43013′east. Sudan borders it in the west, Ethiopia in the south, Djibouti in the south

east, and the Red Sea in the east. The country has a total land area of 124,300 km2, and a coast

line of 1900km. Eritrea’s territorial waters in the Red Sea zone is about 120,000 km2.

It has diversified Eco geographic zones that provide unique habitat for the marine terrestrial

fauna and flora. In 2010, the population of Eritrea was estimated to be 3.2 million with an

annual population growth rate of 2.9%, comprising of 65% living in the rural areas. The

economic activity, for most of the population, mainly relies on rain fed agriculture and artisanal

fisheries.

Climatically 70% of the country is hot to very hot with annual mean temperatures of 270C; 20%

is mild with temperature of 190C and the remaining 10% is cool with mean temperature of less

than 190C. Eritrea is vulnerable to climate change and boththe marine and terrestrial ecosystems

have been negatively affected.Over the past 60 years temperature has risen by approximately

1.7OC with tremendous impact on biodiversity losses, sea level rise and coral bleaching due to

increase in sea water temperature, decline in food production, loss of biodiversity and overall

loss of resilience of the ecosystem. Hence, the country plans to adapt climate smart technologies

to counteract the adverse impacts of climate change, so as to improve the health and social

wellbeing of the population.

Against the above background, the purpose of the preparation of the INDCs is to promote

environmentally sound, socially acceptable and climate resilient economic development by

following low-carbon development path and increasing adapting capacity to the adverse impacts

of climate change.

Under paragraph 14 of the Lima Call for Climate Action, countries were invited to describe how

their intended nationally determined contribution “contributes to the achievement of the

objective of the Convention” (UNFCCC 2014). The latest climate science shows what needs to be

happening globally in order to have a probably chance of limiting warming to 20C, the goal

adopted by the UNFCCC. Global emissions must peak by 2020, and net GHG emissions must be

phased out over the Long term. This will require all major emitting regions to make substantial

reductions below their projected baseline business-as-usual emissions over the course of this

century. Cumulative global emissions must remain within the carbon budget, which is the

maximum amount of cumulative carbon the world can emit to have a probably chance of limiting

warming to 20C.

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1.2 Summary of climate change trends, impacts and vulnerabilities

The rainfall regime varies in space and time. It ranges from 50mm along the coastal area to 1000

mm in smaller area along the eastern escarpment; 50% of the country receive less than 300mm;

40% 300-600mm, and 10% greater than 600mm. Hence, by virtue of its geographical location,

Eritrea is prone to climatic variability i.e. recurrent droughts, (decrease in amount of rainfall

from 550 to 400mm in the highlands), changes in seasonality that had resulted frequent crop

failure, massive death of livestock, genetic erosion, extinction of endemic species, degradation of

habitats and disequilibria in the ecosystem structure and function.

The impact of climate change is manifested in recurrent droughts, desertification, sea level rise

and increase in sea water temperature, depletion of ground water, widespread land degradation,

and emergence of climate sensitive diseases. The combined net effect has resulted in food

insecurity.

Eritrea is committed to gender equity and social justice. 30% of the National Assembly is

composed of women.

Increased climate variability has already been evidenced in Eritrea. Eritrea has experienced

frequent and recurrent droughts since the early 1920s which has aggravated food insecurity and

poverty. The spread of malaria in the highlands, which has never been experienced before,

desertification and decline in biodiversity have also been witnessed. A number of recent

assessments have revealed that observed climate change already has serious impacts on socio-

economic systems and livelihoods of the country.

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1.3 Existing Policies and Legal Framework Related to Climate Change

As Shown in Table 1 Eritrea has already developed various macro and micro polices and legal

instruments, plans, guidelines and communication documents which have important

contribution to the adaptation and mitigation of climate change. Eritrea has prepared its INDC

based on these national documents.

Table 1: list of national policies, strategies and legal frame works

National Policy Documents Year

Macro Policy, GOE 1994

National Constitution, GOE 1997

National Economic Policy Framework and Program (NEPFP), GOE 1998-2000

Interim-Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (I-PRSP), GOE 2003

The Five Year Indicative Development Plan (FYIDP), GOE 2009

Ten Year Long-Term Indicative Perspective Development Plan (TYIPDP),

GOE

2009

Multi Focal Area / Cross-cutting

National Environmental Management Plan 1995

National Environmental Assessment Procedures & Guidelines 1999

National Agricultural Development Strategy and Policy 1994/2005 (draft)

Forest and Wildlife Policy 2005

Agriculture Sector Policy 2006

Land Use Policy 2007

Water Policy 2007

Water Law, Proclamation No. 162, 2010

National Health Policy 2010

Integrated Water Resource Management Action Plan 2009

Environmental Health Policy 1998

Rural Sanitation Policy 2007

Fishery Proclamation 2014

Fisheries Product Proclamation 1998

Biodiversity

National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP) 1996, 2000, 2014

Proclamation on Conservation of Biodiversity 1998

Forest and Wildlife Conservation and Development Proclamation No. 155 2006

Climate Change and Energy

Renewable Energy Sub-Sector Policy 1997

National Adaptation Program of Action 2007

Second National Communication (SNC) 2012

Land Degradation

Land Proclamation No.58 1994

Land Use Planning Regulatory Framework 1999

National Action Program 2002

Five Year Action Plan for The Great Green Wall Initiative (Draft) 2011-2015

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2. National Development Goals and Priorities

Eritrea intends to undertake mitigation and adaptation initiatives to reduce the vulnerability of

its population, environment and economy to the adverse effects of climate change, based on its

Climate Resilient Sustainable Economy Development policy for addressing both climate change

adaptation and mitigation goals. This would ensure a resilient economic development pathway

and in the long run, Eritrea envisages achieving its goals of becoming climate change responsive

country with equitable economic growth by ensuring a rapid transition to low-carbon economy.

To this end, Eritrea intends to raise the share of electricity generation from renewable energy to

70% of the total electricity generation mix (wind, solar and geothermal). Moreover it intends to

reduce transmission and distribution losses at least by 50%. On the other hand to enhance

energy conservation it is intended to introduce: rail transportation to cover about 400km for

mass transportation of freight with estimated cost of about USD 1billion and uses of big buses for

passenger transport to a long distance.

3. Eritrea’s Mitigation Contributions

3.1 Mitigation Measures

3.1.1 Base year

2010

3.1.2 Target Year

2030

3.1.3 Gases Covered

Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), and Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 3.2 Geographical and Sectoral Coverage

Geographical coverage includes all territories of Eritrea and most sectors are covered in the

contribution of the greenhouse Gases (GHG) reduction. Climate mitigation actions are proposed

mainly in energy, industry, transport, forestry, agriculture (Crop and livestock) and waste

sectors. Table 2 provides a summary of Eritrea’s mitigation options proposed in different sectors

and sub sectors.

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Table 2: Eritrea Sectoral Coverage under the mitigation measure

Conditional GHG

reduction options

Emission reduction

in 2030 per option

kt/year

Conditional GHG reduction options

Emission reduction

in 2030 per option

kt/year

Cogeneration in industry 31.16 Solar LED lamps 2.75

Waste heat recovery at cement plant 61.56 Assisted forest regeneration 391.88

Efficient domestic lighting with CFLs 39.11 Biogas at big farms 28.10

Efficient domestic lighting with LEDs 60.03 Composting of Municipal Solid Waste 12.12

Geothermal power 315.00 Biodiesel from MSW 107.11

Wind turbines, on-shore 155.00 Efficient wood stoves 488.15

Efficient residential air-conditioning 18.07 Biogas at rural farms 45.10

Efficient office lighting with CFLs 3.30 Charcoal production 14.10

Efficient electric stoves 17.25 Clinker replacement 167.90

Efficient street lights 24.21 LPG stoves replacing wood stoves 232.31

Solar PVs, large grid 127.29 Efficient electric grids 58.80

Efficient refrigerators 26.37 Reforestation

1.98 Restriction on import of used cars 27.94

Total 3048

3.3 Trajectory Objective Towards 2030

The government of the State of Eritrea is committed to reduce the CO2 emissions from fossil fuels

by 23.1% in 2020, 30.2 % by 2025 and 39.2% by 2030 visa-vis to the reference year. If

additional support is solicited, it can be further reduced by 36.4 % in 2020, 61.1% by 2015 and

80.6% by 2030.

The BAU scenario for all GHG gases expected to increase to: 5 MtCO2eq in 2020, 5.5 MtCO2eq in

2025 and in 2030 6.3 MtCO2eq. Therefore, Eritrea intends to limit its net greenhouse gas (GHGs)

emissions in 2030 to less than 3.9 MtCO2eq. This would constitute a 39% reduction from the

projected ‘business‐as‐usual’ (BAU) emissions in 2030 or 80.6% reduction from the reducible

BAU scenario in 2030 as shown in Figure 1.

The BAU scenario for all fossil fuel CO2 emission expected to increase 1.7 MtCO2 in 2020, 2.2

MtCO2in 2025 and in 2030, 3 MtCO2.

3.4 Unconditional Mitigation Measures

Unconditional mitigation scenario: With internal resources Eritrea can implement its

unconditional scenario reaching 1.3 MtCO2 in 2020, 1.6 MtCO2 in 2025 and 1.9 MtCO2 in

2030from fossil fuel CO2.

3.5 Conditional Mitigation Measures

Conditional mitigation scenario: With external assistances Eritrea can implement its conditional

scenario reaching 1.1 MtCO2 In 2020, 0.9 MtCO2 in 2025 and 0.6 MtCO2 in 2030from fossil fuel

CO2.

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3.6 Accounting Methodologies The methodology used to estimate CH4 and N2O emissions were calculated based on IPCC

guidelines of 2006 Volume 4 and Good Practice Guidance (GPG) 2003 and emissions from waste

and industrial process was taken from the Second National Communication (SNC). The basis for

the calculation of the emission reduction is the projection of GHGs from the 2010 inventory

using the GACMO model (2015). The GACMO model was also used to calculate the abatement

potential and corresponding investment requirement.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2010 2020 2025 2030

ktCO2/yr

Figure 1. Emissions from the energy sector in Eritrea

BAU

Unconditional scenario

Conditional scenario

49.9%

79.7%

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1,000.00

1,200.00

2010 2020 2025 2030

ktC

O2/y

ear

Figure 2: Sectoral split of BAU emissions from fossil fuels

Power

Industry

Transport

Households

Services

Agriculture

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3.7 Fairness, Equity and Ambition

Eritrea in its policy encourages environmentally sound technologies to reduce the greenhouse

gas emissions. It has committed itself and has embarked on an ambitious low-carbon and

climate-resilient development pathway to achieve its development aspirations. The focus is to

create a climate-resilient economy while contributing to the GHGs emission reduction up to

80.6% of the emissions from fossil fuels. Moreover, the Eritrean energy sector also emphasis on

the use and introduction of renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and geothermal power

to substitute efficiency improvement measures the fossil fuel dependency.

Eritrea makes a formal commitment to limit the growth of GHG emission despite only emitting

less than 0.01% of the global GHG emissions in 2010. In the Business As Usual as of 2030 its

emission is only about 1.15 t CO2 -eq/capita or 0.31 tCO2-eq/US$.

4. Eritrea’s Adaptation Contributions

4.1 Planning Strategies

4.1.1 Agricultural and Forestry Development: Over 70% of Eritrea’s population depends on

agriculture and natural resources for its livelihoods. The population directly depends on land for

crop and livestock production; and exploits the forests to extract wood and non-wood forest

products including wild fruits and vegetables to supplement the diet of the households.

Nonetheless, for most parts of the year, the population remains food insecure as the result of

climate change and land degradation.

Consequent to recurrent droughts, desertification coupled with inappropriate land use practices

has significantly contributed to the attrition of the natural resources-base. Consequently, the

natural resources- base is failing to deliver the desired level of production to support the

population. To arrest land degradation and hence to adapt climate change measures are

underway to rehabilitate degraded land and protect forest from deforestation. Moreover, Eritrea

has been undertaking vigorous efforts to enhance Climate Smart Agriculture.

4.1.2 Water resources development: Being located in drought-prone areas of Africa as well as

its geological formation, Eritrea isn’t endowed with both ground and surface water potential.

Hence, water is a vital natural resource that deserves special attention.

In the area of water resources, adaptations to climate change focuses on the implementation of

solar powered improved water systems interventions and provides clean and adequate water to

all and assure efficient utilization of national water resources in all sectors and achieve

sustainable development. Eritrea planned to achieve effective and efficient water resources

assessment, development and management tools and plans.

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4.1.3 Land Resource Management: Being the most critical resources upon which the

livelihoods for the rural population of Eritrea depends, its conservation from all forms of

degradation is the priority of the government. To that end, effective policy measures have

already been taken to develop and enhance effective land cover, land capability and land

classification system in the country to enhance its adaptive capacity to climate change.

4.1.4 Public Health: Climate change has direct impact on the public health. Due to climate

change, there are indications of emergence of Malaria and Dengue Fever which, in the past, was

confined to the lowlands has started to appear in highlands. To tackle the emerging climate

related diseases and public health problems, Eritrea has been undertaking various integrated

programs.

4.1.5 Marine Resources Development: As Eritrea is coastal state, climate change has direct

impact on the development of marine resources. In the major cities, efforts are underway to

monitor the sea level rise, increase sea water temperature and acidity. In this regard, the state

has introduced and plans to promote an Integrated Coastal Marine and Islands Resources

Management System through enforcement of policy measures and legal frameworks.

Promote sustainable fishing techniques through training and, equipping with boats and fishing

gear. This will ensure adequate protection and sustainable exploitation of Eritrea’s coastal,

marine and island resources and the development of the fisheries sector.

4.2Intended Adaptation Goals for 2030 Development and establishment of new enclosure areas over 750,000 ha;

Promotion of Conservation Agriculture/Climate Smart Agriculture in 5% of the cultivable land;

Development and promotion of irrigation scheme by 170, 000 ha;

Afforestation program will cover over 36,000 ha;

Development of terrestrial and marine protected area over 1.5 million ha;

Construction of 90 new dams and 120 pounds;

Safe drinking water supply will increase from 75% to 100%;

Desalination of sea water for domestic and economic sectors in 15 coastal towns and villages and 7 islands;

Wastewater treatment plant established to treat 3 million m3 of water/year;

Rehabilitations degraded land program for agriculture over 250,000 ha;

Livestock production increased by 75%;

Crop production of pulses will cover 25% of total cultivable land;

Sustainable Land Management practice will be implemented in 15% of Eritrean total land covered;

Prevalence of climate change related to public health problems and diseases will be prevented and reduced by

90%.

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5. Means of Implementation

5.1 Financial Needs

5.1.1 Mitigation The full and effective implementation of the Climate resilient Economy Strategy Eritrea requires

an estimated expenditure of more than USD 1,086 million by 2030. This indicates the need for

major capital investments. Therefore, the types of contributions required to implement Eritrea’s

INDC are categorized into unsupported and supported contributions.

Table 3: Eritrea’s Investment needs for mitigation measures 5.1.2 Adaptation

Unconditionally, the Government of the State of Eritrea already spends a huge portion of its

annual budget on infrastructure (construction of dams, roads) and the provision of social

services (schools and hospitals), which contribute to addressing the negative impacts of climate

change by reducing emissions and vulnerabilities of its people and the environment. On the other

hand, the implementation of Eritrea’s INDCs requires sustainable and reliable support in the

form of finance, capacity building and technology transfer.

Table 4: Eritrea’s Investment needs for Adaptation measures for 2030 (in millions)

Apart from the unconditionally planned adaptation measures, Eritrea would further increase it

by 60% provided funding is secured from regional and international financial agencies.

Over the coming 15 years Eritrea needs total investment in the conditional scenarios of USD 7.2

billion.This includes 15% of the total budget will be required for governance and capacity

building across all sectors for effective implementation of both adaptation and mitigation

programs.

Investment Million US$ Conditional Unconditional Funding needs

Accumulated until 2030 1,086 393 694

Accumulated until 2025 627 247 380

Accumulated until 2020 244 105 140

Sectors Conditional Unconditional Funding needs

Agriculture and Forestry 2,500 990 1,510

Water 1400 344 1,056

Land 370 148 222

Marine 280 113 167

Health 155 62 93

Cumulative budget (USD) 4,705 1,657 3,048

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5.2 Capacity Building

The implementation of the abovementioned adaptation and mitigation actions for the period

2020 – 2030 requires the continuous development and strengthening of Eritrea’s capacities.

Therefore, it is imperative to consolidate platforms for the exchange of knowledge and

information related to adaptation at all levels of government, as well as to strengthen the

networks with academic institutions and civil society.

Furthermore, it is fundamental to incorporate gender issues into capacity building, prioritizing

the most vulnerable sectors and regions in order to reduce social inequality and the gap between

women and men rights. Capacity building requires cooperation from developed countries to

developing countries as well as south-south cooperation to enhance regional cooperation.

5.3 Community participation

At the local level, direct community participations are imperative. Hence, sensitisation and

mobilization of the local communities at all levels is a pre-requisite for a success. It is also

important to mainstreaming climate related topics to be included in the national educational

system to make aware the school children about the risks of climate change.

Awareness rising about the adverse impacts of climate risks through various means, inter alia,

the radio, television broadcasting, documentary films and press help to instil climate-related

topics and issues to the public.

5.4 Research and development (Time series data and scientific research)

Mitigation and adaption measures are subject to continuous scrutiny; and for that time series

data and scientific research are required to effectively quantify or estimate the outcomes of the

interventions. For that there is a dire need for exchange of information and data is required for

the areas covered in all the sectors.There is need for mainstreaming of climate change issues into

the national development plans and strategies.

5.5 Technology Transfer Needs

Mitigation and adaption require the introduction of climate smart technologies. These require

the transfer of technology from the developed to the developing countries to effectively and

efficiently introduce in the proposed measures. In that direction, future research and

development will focus on:

1. Quantification and assignment of the share of unsupported contributions that are planned and

fully funded by the government to limit the quantity of emissions;

2. Quantification and assign the share of supported contributions that are planned by the

government but require international support to limit the quantity of emissions;

3. Identification of the technical support needed to introduce new and additional policies and

actions that stimulate and enable investment in limiting emission to 0.6 Mt or lower.

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At the national level, for effective and efficient implementation of the mitigation and adaption

measures, there is a need for synergetic efforts across the various sectors directly involved in the

planning, implementation and monitoring and evaluation of programmes and projects.

Furthermore, Eritrea requires international support for the development of its own technologies

as well as for technology transfer and innovation to increase its adaptive capacity.

For Eritrea, the increase of investment in disaster prevention is of utmost relevance, as well as

the development of an insurance market against hydro meteorological and catastrophic risks, in

which the private sector is invited and expected to play a relevant role.

6. Planning Strategies/Institutional Arrangements Implementation

The Eritrean INDCs is prepared based on existing sustainable development strategies, plans and

objectives aligned with national development plans. It was developed with active stakeholder

engagement and with full commitment of government officials at all levels. Hence,

implementation of INDCs will be in line with existing plans, strategies, policies, legal frameworks

as described in table 1. To enhance the implementation, moreover, continuous updating and

reporting of climate related national documents such as National Communications (NC), Biennial

Update Reports (BUR), Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA), and National Adaption

Plan (NAP) will be prepared.

7. Monitoring and Reporting Progress

The State of Eritrea through the Ministry of Land, Water and Environment has the full

responsibility to monitor and evaluate the implementation of INDCs through regular

stakeholders consultative engagement. This will ensure the effective updating and

implementation of both mitigation adaption plans.