Erin Rogers Dennis Lettenmaier Jessica Lundquist
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Transcript of Erin Rogers Dennis Lettenmaier Jessica Lundquist
Application of DHSVM to Hydrologically Application of DHSVM to Hydrologically Complex Regions as Part of Phase 2 of the Complex Regions as Part of Phase 2 of the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project Distributed Model Intercomparison Project
Erin RogersErin Rogers
Dennis LettenmaierDennis Lettenmaier
Jessica LundquistJessica Lundquist
OutlineOutline
Project Overview and ContextProject Overview and Context NOAA’s NWS Distributed Model Intercomparison NOAA’s NWS Distributed Model Intercomparison
Project (DMIP) Project (DMIP)
NOAA’s ESRL Hydrometeorological Testbed program NOAA’s ESRL Hydrometeorological Testbed program
(HMT)(HMT)
The American River Basin and DHSVMThe American River Basin and DHSVM
Current Research StatusCurrent Research Status
Future WorkFuture Work
Distributed Model Intercomparison ProjectDistributed Model Intercomparison Project
Designed to help NWS make decisions about Designed to help NWS make decisions about
operational forecasting models- specifically operational forecasting models- specifically
moving from lumped to distributed modelsmoving from lumped to distributed models
Goal is to determine if distributed models Goal is to determine if distributed models
perform as well as lumped models at basin perform as well as lumped models at basin
outlets and if they have the ability to model basin outlets and if they have the ability to model basin
interior points accuratelyinterior points accurately
DMIP FormatDMIP Format
NWS picks basins and sets forth simulation NWS picks basins and sets forth simulation
requirementsrequirements
NWS makes input and forcing data availableNWS makes input and forcing data available
Participants are given a due date for submitting required Participants are given a due date for submitting required
simulationssimulations
NWS compiles and analyzes simulation resultsNWS compiles and analyzes simulation results
DMIP 2DMIP 2
American and Carson River BasinsAmerican and Carson River Basins
Hydrometeorological Testbed Program Hydrometeorological Testbed Program
Regional demonstration Regional demonstration
program focused on program focused on
improving precipitation improving precipitation
forecastingforecasting
Evaluating current Evaluating current
observational tools wrt observational tools wrt
spatial and temporal spatial and temporal
distribution of precipitationdistribution of precipitation
HMTHMT
Dense network Dense network
fixed and mobile fixed and mobile
advanced sensors advanced sensors
AR Basin 1st full AR Basin 1st full
scale deployment scale deployment
Expected to run Expected to run
from 2006-2011from 2006-2011
PRE-HMT CoveragePRE-HMT Coverage
PPrecip StationPrecip Station
Snow Station
HMT Instrumentation – Radar Locations HMT Instrumentation – Radar Locations (Polarimetric and Doppler)(Polarimetric and Doppler)
HMT Instrumentation – Rain Disdrometers HMT Instrumentation – Rain Disdrometers
HMT Instrumentation - 2875 MHz Precip HMT Instrumentation - 2875 MHz Precip ProfilersProfilers
HMT Instrumentation – Soil Moisture and HMT Instrumentation – Soil Moisture and Temperature ProbesTemperature Probes
HMT Instrumentation – Water Vapor SensorsHMT Instrumentation – Water Vapor Sensors
HMT Instrumentation – Surface Met StationsHMT Instrumentation – Surface Met Stations
HMT Instrumentation – Stream Level LoggersHMT Instrumentation – Stream Level Loggers
HMT Instrumentation - AllHMT Instrumentation - All
Pre/Post HMT InstrumentationPre/Post HMT Instrumentation
American River BasinAmerican River Basin
Critical resource for CA’s economyCritical resource for CA’s economy Water resources managementWater resources management
Hydroelectric power generationHydroelectric power generation
FisheriesFisheries
Prone to flooding due to heavy winter precipitation from Prone to flooding due to heavy winter precipitation from
‘atmospheric rivers’ originating in the tropical pacific‘atmospheric rivers’ originating in the tropical pacific
Heavily populated downstream areaHeavily populated downstream area
Basin Characteristics - ClimateBasin Characteristics - Climate
Hydrology Rain and Snow Hydrology Rain and Snow
DrivenDriven
Mean Annual Temp RangeMean Annual Temp Range
Low: -1 to 2 CLow: -1 to 2 C
High: 26 to 34 CHigh: 26 to 34 C
Mean Annual PE RangeMean Annual PE Range
~1030 mm to 1210 mm~1030 mm to 1210 mm
Basin Characteristics – DEMBasin Characteristics – DEM
Area:Area:
866 km2866 km2
Elevation Range:Elevation Range:
200-2600 m200-2600 m
Median Elevation:Median Elevation:
1270 m1270 m
Basin Characteristics - PrecipitationBasin Characteristics - Precipitation
Precipitation dominatedPrecipitation dominated
by orographic effectsby orographic effects
Mean Annual Precip:Mean Annual Precip:
813 mm (393 m elev)813 mm (393 m elev)
1651 mm (1676 m elev)1651 mm (1676 m elev)
Basin Characteristics - VegetationBasin Characteristics - Vegetation
Heavily forested basinHeavily forested basin
75-85% coverage75-85% coverage
Vegetation TypesVegetation Types
Douglas Fir Douglas Fir
Ponderosa PinePonderosa Pine
Lodgepole Pine Lodgepole Pine
Fir-SpruceFir-Spruce
Western HardwoodsWestern Hardwoods
Shrub rangelandShrub rangeland
Forest Type
Forest Percent
Basin Characteristics - GeologyBasin Characteristics - Geology
Metasedimentary rock and Metasedimentary rock and granitegranite
Shallow soils with areas of Shallow soils with areas of exposed rockexposed rock
Soils are clay loams and Soils are clay loams and coarse sandy loamscoarse sandy loams
Depth ranges from 0-2.5 mDepth ranges from 0-2.5 m
Impoundments and DiversionsImpoundments and Diversions
Basin Characteristics - Road DensityBasin Characteristics - Road Density
Pink Pink
>> 2 km/km 2 km/km22
YellowYellow
0.9 – 2.0 km/km0.9 – 2.0 km/km22
BlueBlue
0 – 0.9 km/km0 – 0.9 km/km22
Basin Characteristics - Road SystemBasin Characteristics - Road System
DHSVMDHSVM
Has successfully been Has successfully been
applied to similar applied to similar
watersheds watersheds
Has limited ability to Has limited ability to
model standing watermodel standing water
Baseflow is expected to Baseflow is expected to
be a small componentbe a small component
Current Research Status Current Research Status
No NOAA data yetNo NOAA data yet
Initially forcing with Alan’s Initially forcing with Alan’s
data set (5 stations)data set (5 stations)
Run DHSVM at 90m Run DHSVM at 90m
resolutionresolution
Soils data from SSURGO Soils data from SSURGO
soil surveysoil survey
Veg data from EPAVeg data from EPA
No roadsNo roads
Gridded Data LocationsGridded Data Locations
Future WorkFuture Work
Relating point to gridded data: compare Alan’s Relating point to gridded data: compare Alan’s data set with local station data, adjust if data set with local station data, adjust if necessarynecessary
Calibrate DHSVM with gridded forcing dataCalibrate DHSVM with gridded forcing data Model other basins in DMIP2Model other basins in DMIP2
CarsonCarson BlueBlue ElkElk IllinoisIllinois
Questions?Questions?
DMIP Phase 1 Simulation RequirementsDMIP Phase 1 Simulation Requirements
Hydrographs generated using Hydrographs generated using NEXRAD as ppt forcing NEXRAD as ppt forcing
Calibrated and uncalibrated Calibrated and uncalibrated sims requiredsims required
‘‘Blind’ simulation at prescribed Blind’ simulation at prescribed interior sub-basin pointsinterior sub-basin points
Simulations in continuous Simulations in continuous retrospective moderetrospective mode
HL conducted an analysis of HL conducted an analysis of all simulations vs observed all simulations vs observed data as well as SAC-SMA data as well as SAC-SMA simulationssimulations
Interior PointUSGS Gage
DMIP Phase 1DMIP Phase 1
DMIP1 ran from 2000-2002 DMIP1 ran from 2000-2002
Conducted in several Conducted in several
basins in the southern basins in the southern
great plainsgreat plains
Hydrologically simple, but Hydrologically simple, but
prone to flash floodingprone to flash flooding
Blue River
Illinois River
Elk River
DMIP2 Science Questions DMIP2 Science Questions
1.1. Can Distributed Models provide increased simulation accuracy compared to Can Distributed Models provide increased simulation accuracy compared to lumped models? Are improvements constrained by forcing data quality? lumped models? Are improvements constrained by forcing data quality?
2.2. What simulation improvements can be realized through the use of re-analysis What simulation improvements can be realized through the use of re-analysis forcing data? Can using the Multi-sensor precipitation estimation algorithm to forcing data? Can using the Multi-sensor precipitation estimation algorithm to process the raw NEXRAD data lead to improved simulations?process the raw NEXRAD data lead to improved simulations?
3.3. What is the performance of distributed models if they are calibrated with observed What is the performance of distributed models if they are calibrated with observed precipitation data but use forecasts of precipitation? How far out into the future can precipitation data but use forecasts of precipitation? How far out into the future can distributed models provide better forecasts than currently used lumped models?distributed models provide better forecasts than currently used lumped models?
4.4. Can distributed models reasonably predict processes such as runoff generation Can distributed models reasonably predict processes such as runoff generation and soil moisture re-distribution at interior locations? At what scale can we validate and soil moisture re-distribution at interior locations? At what scale can we validate soil moisture models given current models and sensor networks?soil moisture models given current models and sensor networks?
DMIP2 Science QuestionsDMIP2 Science Questions
5.5. In what ways do routing schemes contribute to the simulation success of In what ways do routing schemes contribute to the simulation success of distributed models? distributed models?
6.6. At what river forecast points can we expect distributed models to effectively At what river forecast points can we expect distributed models to effectively capture spatial variability so as to provide better simulations and forecasts? capture spatial variability so as to provide better simulations and forecasts?
7.7. What is the potential for distributed models set up for basin outlet simulations to What is the potential for distributed models set up for basin outlet simulations to generate meaningful hydrographs at interior locations for flash flood forecasting? generate meaningful hydrographs at interior locations for flash flood forecasting?
8.8. What are the advantages and disadvantages associated with distributed modeling What are the advantages and disadvantages associated with distributed modeling (versus lumped) in hydrologically complex areas using existing model forcings? (versus lumped) in hydrologically complex areas using existing model forcings?
DMIP2 Science QuestionsDMIP2 Science Questions
9.9. Is there a dominant constraint that limits the performance of hydrologic simulation Is there a dominant constraint that limits the performance of hydrologic simulation
and forecasting in mountainous areas? If so, is it the quality and/or amount of and forecasting in mountainous areas? If so, is it the quality and/or amount of
forcing data or is the constraint related to a knowledge gap in our understanding forcing data or is the constraint related to a knowledge gap in our understanding
of the hydrologic processes in these areas? of the hydrologic processes in these areas?
10.10. Can improvements to rain-snow partitioning be made? Can advanced sensors Can improvements to rain-snow partitioning be made? Can advanced sensors
planned for implementation in the American River lead to improved simulations planned for implementation in the American River lead to improved simulations
and forecasts? and forecasts?
11.11. What are the dominant scales (if any) in mountainous area hydrology? What are the dominant scales (if any) in mountainous area hydrology?
OK Mesonet StationsOK Mesonet Stations