Equity Weekly 130707

7/28/2019 Equity Weekly 130707

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Weekly7 July 2013

Irfan Ellam

Head of MENA Equity Research

+971 4 230 7807

[email protected]

Aditya Pugalia

Analyst

+971 4 230 7802

[email protected]

Equity WeeklyGlobal EquitiesThe MSCI World index rose +1.1% 5d, as US payrolls data came in higher thanexpected, and in Europe, both the European Central Bank and Bank of Englandsignaled that interest rates will continue to remain low in the Eurozone for an extended

period of time. Risk measures declined in the US and Asia, with the VIX SPX -11.7% 5dto 15 and the VHSI +12.9% 5d to 23, but increased in Europe with the VSTOXX +3.6%5d to 23. The MSCI G7 index, +1.3% 5d, led gains for the MSCI market indices,followed by the MSCI Frontiers Markets index, +1.1% 5d whilst the MSCI EmergingMarket index declined -2.4% 5d.

Investors are expected to focus on Q2 2013 earnings releases over the coming weeks,and more importantly management guidance, to help gauge the impact of the expectedreduction in US quantitative easing on sales and earnings for H2 2013. For emergingmarkets higher yields in the US could see an outflow of funds, resulting in weakeremerging markets currencies, which in turn could be positive for exporters. Fordomestically focused emerging market companies there is a potential risk of inflation tocontend with.

MENA MarketsThe S&P Pan Arab Composite index rose +1.9% 5d. Egypt had the best performingregional market last week, with the EGX 30 index gaining +14.9% 5d, driven by localbuying, as the military removed former President Mursi from power and appointed AdlyMansour (the former head of the constitutional Court) as Interim President. WhilstEgyptian markets have cheered the move, the country economic fundamentals have notchanged and the economy remains weak, with foreign exchange reserves underpressure. The appointment of an interim president could see the resumption of talkswith the IMF for the USD 4.8bn loan, but any IMF loan would come with conditionsattached, relating to the removal/reduction of subsidies for food and fuel. These factors,together with civil unrest, gives ample reason for equity investors to remain cautious.The EGX index is currently trading on 7.6x BEst PE 2014E, with a 9.7% BEst ROE2014E, a -17 % discount in PE terms and -24% lower ROE relative to the MSCIEmerging markets index. Morocco had the worst performing regional market with theMadex Free Float index -1.3% 5d.

Based on Bloomberg data and our MENA coverage universe, the Industrials sector(+7.8% 5d) was the best performing sector, led by Egyptian industrials with Elswedy+17.9% 5d, El Ezz +10.0% 5d and Oriental Weavers +9.3% 5d. The Petrochemicalssector had the smallest gains +1.9% 5d, as APPC (-1.2% 5d) and SAFC) (-0.5% 5d)declined.

Our MENA equity coverage universe shows the Financial Services sector (23.5x BEstPE 2014, BEst ROE 2014 of 3.7%) as having the most upside of +25.8%, based onBEst consensus target prices. The Food and Retail sector (14.1x BEst PE 2014 andBEst ROE 2014 of 28.0%) continues to have the least upside of -1.8%.

Developed MarketsThe S&P 500 index gained +1.2% 5d, as US payrolls increased by 195,000, above

consensus estimates of 165,000 and hourly earnings increased. Financial, industrialand health care companies led the gains in 9 out of 10 of the S&P 500 industry groups.The S&P homebuilders index fell-3.4% on concerns over the impact of higher treasuryyields on mortgage costs and hence housing demand. Dell lost -2.1% as Michael Delland Silver Lake said that they would not increase their offer, as they bid to take thecompany private.

The Euro Stoxx 600 index rose +1.2% 5d, as both the European Central Bank and Bankof England stated that Eurozone interest rates will continue to remain low for anextended period of time, meaning, according to the ECB, more than 6 to 12 months.Nokia gained +9.1% after it agreed to buy Siemens 50% share in their Nokia SiemensNetworks joint venture for Euro 1.7bn, lower than expected. However the acquisitionresulted in S&P cutting Nokias credit rating to B+, citing the impact the acquisition willhave on the companys net cash position. National benchmark indices rose in 15 of the

18 western European markets.

Emerging and Frontier MarketsFrontier markets gains were led by the MSCI FM Africa index +2.3% 5d, whilst theMSCI FM excluding the GCC index rose +1.2% 5d. Emerging markets declinescontinued to be led by the MSCI EM Latin America index falling -4.3% 5d, followed theMSCI EM Asia -1.7% 5d, whilst the MSCI EM Eastern Europe index was effectively flat-0.5% 5d.


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Research from Emirates NBD

Major Equity Markets

MENA Sector PE/ROE 2013E

MENA Equity Indices PE/ROE 2013E

Developed Market Indices PE/ROE 2013E

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research, BEst Bloomberg

Estimates

MENA Sector PB/ROA 2012

MENA Equity Indices PB/ROA 2012

Developed Market Indices PB/ROA 2012

y = 2.2197x - 10.996R = 0.6041

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

4.0 12.0 20.0

BEstROE

2013

BEst PE 2013

Real Estate

Banks

Industrials

Food & Retail

Telecom

Petchem & Fert

Transport & Logistics

Energy & Utilities

Construction

y = 2.0655x - 5.8027R = 0.3341

0.0

8.0

16.0

24.0

32.0

7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0

BEstROE

2013

BEst PE 2013

DSMDFMGI

ADSMI

MADEX

MSM

Tadawul

ISE 100

EGX 30

y = 0.8101x + 3.6977R = 0.1884

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0

BEstROE

2013

BEst PE 2013

Nasdaq

AS51 Index

FTSE100

Dow

Jones

SMI

NikkeiS&P500

Cac Dax

Stoxx600

y = 4.7166x - 2.7764R = 0.84

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

ROA

2012

PB 2012

Real Estate

Banks

Industrials

Food & Retail

Telecom

FinancialServices

Petchem &Fert

Transport &Logistics

Energy &Utilities

Construction

y = 1.1815x + 0.9742R = 0.4142

0.00

0.501.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00

ROA2012

PB 2012

DFMGI

ADSMI

Tadawul

XU100

MSM

DSM

EGX 30

y = 3.637x - 3.926R = 0.4946

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00

ROA2012

PB 2012

FTSE 100

S&P 500

Dow JonesSMI

Nasdaq

Nikkei

Dax

Stoxx 600

CacAS51 Index


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Major Equity Markets

Emerging Market Indices PE/ROE 2013E

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research, BEst BloombergEstimates

Emerging Market Indices PB/ROA 2012

y = 0.3393x + 12.868R = 0.056

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

4.0 8.0 12.0 16.0

BEstROE

2013

BEst PE 2013

Mala sia

Karachi

Nifty

Jakarta Sensex

Taiwan

Mexico

Vietnam

Bovespa

HSIShanghai

Jo'burg

Micex

y = 2.1125x + 0.5451R = 0.2463

0.00

4.00

8.00

12.00

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5

ROA

2012

PB 2012

Malaysia

Karachi

Nifty

Jakarta

Sensex

Taiwan

Mexico

Vietnam

BovespaHSI

Shanghai

Jo'burg

Micex


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MENA Markets

MENA Equity Indices (5d% chg) Benchmark Equity Indices

Index

BEst

P/E

BEst

P/B

Div

Yield

5d

chg

1m

chgYtd

MSCI World 14.07 1.82 2.72 1.1% -1.4% 8.3%

MSCI G7 14.10 1.86 2.51 1.3% -1.1% 10.0%

MSCI Emerging

Markets 10.14 1.32 3.06 -2.4% -6.4%

-

13.0%

MSCI Frontier

Markets 10.34 1.49 4.18 1.1% -5.2% 8.8%

S&P Pan Arab 12.04 1.55 3.74 2.1% -0.8% 8.5%

MENA Equity Indices

Index Last Price 5d chg

T.Value 5d avg

(USD mn) BEst P/E BEst P/B Div Yield

% above 200d

MA

DFM 2,264 41.7 60.4 12.8 1.0 3.7 51.6

ADX 3,563 22.2 72.4 10.0 1.4 4.9 32.8

Tadawul 7,669 164.2 1,291.4 12.5 1.8 3.6 62.5

ISE 100 73,112 -3182.7 1,246.4 9.7 1.4 2.5 36.0

EGX 30 5,335 693.5 41.2 9.8 0.8 5.8 33.3

KWSE 7,963 49.7 124.9 - - 3.7 49.5

Bahrain 1,191 2.5 1.3 - - 4.1 17.1

MSM 6,441 106.9 11.3 10.1 1.5 4.3 93.3

Qatar Exchange 9,372 73.4 46.7 11.0 1.6 4.9 90.0

MADEX 7,044 -96.3 2.6 13.0 2.3 4.5 48.2

TUSISE 4,617 8.3 1.4 - - 1.9 16.1

DUAE INDEX 2,575 30.1 112.7 - - 3.1 95.0

DKUW INDEX 3,820 28.6 28.3 - - 3.7 80.0

DQAT INDEX 5,876 82.9 39.0 - - 4.5 90.0

DKUS INDEX 2,926 29.6 41.7 - - 4.3 80.0

DQAS INDEX 7,280 -21.9 - - - - -

Relative to Benchmark Indices

Index PE PB Dvd Yld Index PE PB Dvd Yld

Relative to S&P Pan Arab

DFM 6.7% -35.5% -1.3% Relative to MSCI Emerging Market Index

ADX -16.8% -10.1% 30.6% EGX 30 -3.8% -41.4% 91.2%

Tadawul 3.8% 17.4% -3.0% MADEX 28.2% 77.1% 46.2%

KWSE - - -1.3% ISE 100 -3.8% 6.6% -18.9%

Bahrain - - 9.5%

0.2%

-1.4%

-4.2%

14.9%

1.7%

0.2%

0.6%

0.8%

2.2%

0.6%

1.9%

-12% -7% -2% 3% 8% 13% 18%

TUSISE

MADEX

ISE 100

EGX 30

MSM

Bahrain Bourse

KWSE

DSM

Tadawul

ADX

DFM


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MSM -16.2% -5.1% 14.1%

Qatar -8.5% 4.7% 31.6%

TUSISE -49.4% - -48.7%

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research,BEst Bloomberg Estimates


6/22


Developed Markets

Developed Market Equity Indices (5d% chg) Emerging Market Equity Indices (5d% chg)

Equity Indices

Index Last Price 5d chg

T.Value 5d avg

(USD mn) BEst P/E BEst P/B Div Yield

% above 200d

MA

Dow Jones 15,136 111.4 4,023.3 13.6 2.8 2.5 90.0

S&P 500 1,632 18.7 20,006.7 14.8 2.3 2.2 83.8

Nasdaq 3,479 77.5 10,648.0 17.9 2.8 1.4 67.9

FTSE 100 6,376 160.1 4,933.8 11.8 1.7 4.0 79.2

Dax 7,806 -153.2 4,240.0 11.5 1.4 3.5 56.7

Cac 40 3,754 14.9 3,479.1 11.9 1.2 4.0 67.5

Swiss 7,782 98.9 1,887.5 14.6 2.3 3.3 85.0

Nikkei 14,310 632.7 14,266.6 18.1 1.6 1.6 96.4

Australia 4,842 39.2 3,170.7 13.7 1.8 4.9 57.2

Stoxx 600 288 3.3 28,325.6 12.8 1.5 3.8 69.0

Emerging Markets & Frontier Markets

Hong Kong 20,855 414.6 2,823.8 9.9 1.2 3.6 24.0

Shanghai 2,007 28.0 12,103.4 8.8 1.2 3.0 29.9

Korea 1,833 -30.0 3,045.8 10.0 1.1 1.3 48.3

Sensex 19,496 100.0 78.1 13.6 2.1 1.6 50.0

Nifty 5,868 25.7 851.2 13.7 2.1 1.6 38.0

Karachi 22,178 1172.7 82.6 8.0 1.7 5.5 90.0

Taiwan 8,002 -60.4 2,511.6 14.7 1.6 3.3 60.5

Bovespa 45,210 -2246.6 2,377.2 12.2 0.8 4.7 16.9

Micex 1,343 12.3 634.4 5.1 0.6 4.0 40.0

Jo'burg 1,343 -408.3 1,348.2 12.7 1.7 3.0 58.7

Vietnam 486 4.5 29.0 11.9 2.0 3.6 53.6

Jakarta 4,603 -216.1 364.7 14.9 2.9 2.1 29.1

Malaysia 1,772 -1.3 301.1 16.6 2.2 3.4 80.0

Mexico 40,623 -0.2 450.3 16.4 2.6 1.4 40.0

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research,BEst Bloomberg Estimate

0.8%

4.6%

1.2%

1.3%

0.4%

-1.9%

2.6%

2.3%

1.2%

0.7%

-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6%

S&P / ASX 200

Nikkei

Stoxx 600

SMI

CAC 40

DAX

FTSE 100

Nasdaq

S&P 500

DJIA

2.0%

1.4%-1.6%

0.5%

0.4%

5.6%

-0.8%

-4.7%

0.9%

-1.0%

0.9%

-4.5%

-0.1%

0.0%

-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Hang Seng

SHCOMPKOSPI

Sensex

Nifty

KSE 100

TWSE

Bovespa

Micex

FTSE / JSE Africa

Ho Chi Minh

JSE

KLCI

MEXBOL


7/22


Relative to Benchmark Indices


Relative to MSCI G7 Index Relative to MSCI Emerging Markets Index

Dow Jones -3.6% 48.7% 0.1% Hong Kong -2.3% -6.4% 17.9%

S&P 500 5.0% 22.8% -14.3% Shanghai -13.2% -8.9% -0.6%

Nasdaq 27.1% 50.3% -45.8% Korea -1.0% -20.2% -59.1%

FTSE 100 -16.2% -10.3% 57.9% Sensex 34.2% 62.2% -46.9%

Dax -18.5% -26.7% 38.4% Nifty 34.7% 59.8% -48.6%

Cac 40 -15.9% -36.4% 60.7% Karachi -20.9% 26.4% 80.0%

Swiss 3.4% 25.2% 32.8% Taiwan 44.9% 22.0% 6.7%

Nikkei 28.4% -16.3% -35.8% Bovespa 20.2% -41.1% 52.3%

Australia -2.6% -4.7% 93.8% Micex -49.7% -53.4% 30.5%

Stoxx 600 -9.5% -21.5% 51.1% Jo'burg 25.1% 29.1% -0.5%

Vietnam 17.3% 53.3% 18.1%

Jakarta 47.0% 116.2% -30.1%

Malaysia 63.3% 67.7% 9.9%

Mexico 62.3% 93.3% -53.5%

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research, BEst Bloomberg Estimate


8/22


Telecoms Sector

PE/ROE 2013E PB/ROA 2013E

Company Price LLC

Market Cap

(USD mn)

PE

2012

BEst

PE

2013

ROE

2012

BEst

ROE

2013

PB

2012

ROA

2012

Dvd

Yld

2012

BEst

DvdYld

2013 RSI

Avg Value

Traded 3m

(USD mn)

Orascom Telecom 4.56 3403.4 - 7.8 -13.4 15.8 2.1 -2.8 0.0 1.4 65 2.6

Telecom Egypt 12.80 3108.9 9.3 9.0 9.3 9.0 0.9 8.0 9.2 10.4 61 1.2

NMTC 2060.00 3630.5 15.5 9.7 9.3 12.3 1.4 5.2 5.3 4.3 32 0.1

Zain 680.00 10260.2 12.0 11.0 13.7 14.3 1.9 8.1 6.4 7.6 48 4.6

Qtel 121.10 10652.7 10.3 10.4 12.0 12.4 1.2 3.0 4.8 4.9 49 2.4

Etihad Etisalat 80.75 16578.7 8.8 9.6 30.6 29.0 2.5 15.8 5.5 5.8 55 18.0

STC 40.10 21384.1 11.9 8.6 14.8 16.7 1.7 6.3 4.6 5.6 46 9.5

Zain KSA 9.90 2851.1 - - -27.5 -16.4 1.0 -6.4 0.0 0.0 55 57.6

Etisalat 11.20 24323.6 10.6 11.5 16.8 18.7 1.8 8.8 7.7 6.2 41 5.8

Du 5.81 7218.8 8.1 14.1 28.8 27.0 2.1 15.2 8.6 5.2 56 2.6

Average 10.8 10.2 9.5 13.9 1.7 6.1 5.2 5.2


News Flow

Etihad Etisalat signed two 90-day MoU with Nokia Siemens Network and Ericsson to arrange long-term financing for acquiring

network equipment. In another announcement, the companys unit Bayanat Al Oula for Network Services will seek CMAs approval to

acquire controlling interest in Etihad Atheeb. (Bloomberg)

Etihad Etisalat has signed a contract with Emaar Economic City to provide a communication network in King Abdullah Economic City.The contract is for 8 year and entails an investment of SAR 600mn. (Bloomberg)

y = 1.4417x + 3.0494R = 0.2802

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0

BEstROE

2013

BEst PE 2013

Zain

Etisalat

OT

Telecom Egypt

Etihad Etisalat

STC

Qtel

du

NMTC

y = 3.3605x + 0.5032R = 0.2211

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

ROA

2013

PB 2013

NMTC

VodafoneQatar

STC

Etisalat

Telecom Egypt

Etihad Etisalat

Zain KSA

Du

Qtel


9/22


Petrochemicals & Fertilisers Sector


Company Price LLC

Market Cap

(USD mn)

PE

2012

BEst

PE

2013

ROE

2012

BEst

ROE

2013

PB

2012

ROA

2012

Dvd

Yld

2012

BEst

DvdYld

2013 RSI

Avg Value

Traded 3m

(USD mn)

IQ 158.30 26300.7 10.1 10.1 29.8 27.2 2.8 21.9 5.5 5.6 35 11.6

Sahara Petchem 14.70 1719.9 29.1 15.1 3.9 7.3 1.1 2.4 3.7 3.9 51 9.1

SABIC 93.50 74791.0 10.9 10.3 17.3 17.4 1.8 7.4 5.6 5.6 56 103.8

SIPCHEM 24.00 2346.4 11.6 14.8 10.7 10.7 1.2 4.0 6.5 5.2 76 3.8

Saudi Kayan 11.55 4619.4 - 20.3 -5.2 4.4 1.3 -1.7 0.0 1.8 50 11.9

Sidi Kerir Petchem 13.71 1024.1 8.0 7.8 35.1 34.8 2.8 26.5 10.2 11.4 70 0.4

Yansab 56.00 8399.0 10.9 11.6 20.8 19.4 2.1 10.8 - 4.7 51 7.0

Chemanol 12.60 405.2 17.6 14.9 6.0 6.4 1.0 3.1 - 3.8 45 4.1

APPC 31.80 1390.5 13.1 12.9 16.1 20.2 2.1 9.9 7.6 6.5 60 4.3

Safco 143.75 12775.9 13.1 12.3 45.3 46.3 5.7 39.9 7.9 7.3 37 7.4

Ma'aden 29.70 7325.1 27.5 20.3 6.2 7.1 1.7 2.2 - - 47 7.1

Tasnee 26.30 4690.7 10.5 9.7 15.3 13.9 1.5 4.1 7.2 6.7 47 10.7

Average 14.8 13.3 16.8 17.9 2.1 10.9 6.0 5.7


News FlowNational Petrochemical Co started an unscheduled shutdown of Saudi Polymer unit for about two weeks. The financial impact of

shutdown is expected to be around SAR 70mn and will impact Q2 and Q3 2013 earnings. (Bloomberg)

Qatar Gas Transports joint venture Maran Nakilat signed a USD 662.4mn refinancing accord with Qatar Islamic Bank and Barwa

Bank. The accord will help the company to expand its fleet to 6 LNG tankers from 4. (Bloomberg)

y = -2.0585x + 45.187R = 0.4072

5.0

15.0

25.0

35.0

45.0

55.0

5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

BEstROE

2013

BEst PE 2013

Yansab

Sahara

Sidi Kerir

IQ

Maaden

SAFCO

Chemanol

SIPCHEM

Tasnee

APPC

Sabic

y = 9.4216x - 7.2918R = 0.9298

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

ROA

2013

PB 2013

Saudi Kayan

YansabSahara

Sidi Kerir

IQ

Maaden

SAFCO

Chemanol

SIPCHEM

Tasnee

APPC

Sabic


10/22


Banking Sector


Company Price LLC

Market Cap

(USD mn)

PE

2012

BEst

PE

2013

ROE

2012

BEst

ROE

2013

PB

2012

ROA

2012

Dvd

Yld

2012

BEst

DvdYld

2013 RSI

Avg Value

Traded 3m

(USD mn)

CIB 34.91 2966.4 9.3 8.5 22.8 21.3 1.9 2.5 3.6 3.8 63 5.2

Al Rajhi Bank 76.50 30596.3 12.4 13.5 22.8 23.1 2.7 3.2 5.0 4.7 77 35.6

Samba 51.50 12358.5 9.3 9.8 14.5 14.2 1.3 2.2 3.7 3.9 64 5.0

Riyad Bank 24.85 9938.8 10.0 10.2 11.2 11.5 1.1 1.9 5.7 5.8 55 2.9

Bank Aljazira 27.70 2215.7 15.6 13.7 10.3 11.4 1.6 1.1 - 2.3 58 5.7

NBK 930.00 14864.4 13.5 13.1 12.8 12.5 1.7 2.0 3.1 3.7 30 7.1

Burgan Bank 610.00 3460.0 14.0 11.5 11.9 16.0 1.6 1.1 1.9 1.8 48 1.9

DIB 3.18 3444.6 6.6 11.1 12.3 12.1 0.8 1.2 7.5 5.1 47 21.7

NBAD 11.45 13422.1 9.2 10.6 15.1 16.0 1.3 1.6 3.4 3.1 43 2.3

FGB 15.80 12905.2 8.4 10.7 14.8 16.7 1.2 2.5 7.2 5.0 54 10.1

ADCB 5.00 7617.3 6.1 10.1 14.3 13.6 0.8 1.5 8.3 4.9 52 8.5

QNB 162.50 31225.9 11.0 11.9 18.7 19.4 1.9 2.5 4.6 3.3 75 8.7

CBQ 70.90 4817.9 8.7 8.7 13.8 13.5 1.2 2.7 8.5 7.2 60 4.6

DB 47.30 3356.1 8.0 9.1 17.8 16.9 1.4 2.4 8.9 7.6 54 2.6

QIB 68.50 4445.0 14.3 11.2 10.9 12.9 1.5 1.9 5.0 6.4 47 1.9

Bank Muscat 0.59 3281.5 8.0 8.2 14.3 13.4 1.1 1.8 4.3 4.6 35 1.9

Average 10.3 10.7 14.9 15.3 1.4 2.0 5.4 4.6


y = 0.0997x + 14.455R = 0.0025

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0 15.0

BEstROE

2013

BEst PE 2013

NBK

QNB

Al Rajhi

Bank Aljazira

QIB

Riyad Bank

CBQ

Burgan BankADCBDIB

QIB

FGB

CIB

NBADSamba

DB

y = 0.4645x + 1.2457R = 0.1537

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

ROA

2013

PB 2013

NBK

QNB

Al Rajhi

Bank Aljazira

QIBRiyad Bank

CBQ

Burgan Bank

ADCB

DIB

FGBCIB

NBADSamba

DB


11/22


12/22


Real Estate Sector


Company Price LLC

Market Cap

(USD mn)

PE

2012

BEst

PE

2013

ROE

2012

BEst

ROE

2013

PB

2012

ROA

2012

Dvd

Yld

2012

BEst

DvdYld

2013 RSI

Avg Value

Traded 3m

(USD mn)

Aldar 2.26 4859.4 4.2 10.9 17.6 5.3 0.6 3.7 4.7 2.3 57 28.4

Barwa Real Estate 26.60 2842.5 9.3 7.8 9.3 3.0 0.8 2.0 3.6 - 49 6.5

Dar AL Arkan 10.35 2980.4 9.0 10.1 6.2 6.6 0.5 4.3 - 0.0 57 72.6

Deyaar Development 0.38 593.1 52.5 15.1 1.0 3.7 0.5 0.6 - - 44 3.6

Emaar Economic City 10.00 2266.4 37.2 - 2.5 0.0 0.9 1.4 - - 53 43.0

Emaar Properties 5.32 8905.6 10.7 14.6 6.6 6.6 0.7 3.5 2.7 2.0 41 25.4

TMG Holding 4.63 1359.4 16.8 14.1 2.2 3.1 0.4 1.0 - 0.0 76 1.8

Palm Hill Developments 2.01 299.8 - 9.1 -3.9 7.1 0.8 -0.9 0.0 0.0 65 3.4

Average 20.0 11.7 5.2 4.4 0.7 1.9 2.8 0.9

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research,BEst

Bloomberg Estimate

News Flow

Emaar Properties and Meraas Holding plan to start an affordable hotel chain Dubai Inn to serve a market driven partly by the growth

of low-cost airlines and planned theme parks in the UAE. (Bloomberg)

Aldar informed that the interest margin on an AED 2.1bn loan between Sorouh and a syndicate of banks has been cut to 2.45% from

4.5%. (Bloomberg)

According to reports quoting Union Properties Chairman, the company may report Q2 2013 profit of as much as AED 45mn.

(Bloomberg)

Nakheel sold two plots on Palm Jumeirahs crescent for AED 695mn. A plot to west of Atlantis was sold to a GCC investor for A ED

556mn while an Emirati investor bought a plot on eastern crescent for AED 139mn. (Bloomberg)

Moodys raised Aldar Properties rating to B1 from B2 and kept review for upgrade. (Bloomberg)

Nakheels unit The World signed two settlement agreements with combined value of about AED 185mn with investors in the World,

bringing total settlement value at the project to AED 807mn. (Bloomberg)

The Saudi State Fund has approved SAR 5bn in housing loans to citizens for building 12,018 housing units across the country.

(Bloomberg)

y = 0.0726x + 4.0814R = 0.0346

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

BEstROE

2013

BEst PE 2013

Dar Al Arkan

TMG Holding

Deyaar

Emaar

Barwa RE

Aldary = -2.6158x + 6.2378

R = 0.0265

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4

ROA

2013

PB 2013

Emaar Eco City

Barwa RE

TMG Holding

Dar Al Arkan

Emaar

Aldar

Deyaar


13/22


Food & Retail Sector


Company Price LLC

Market Cap

(USD mn)

PE

2012

BEst

PE

2013

ROE

2012

BEst

ROE

2013

PB

2012

ROA

2012

Dvd

Yld

2012

BEst

DvdYld

2013 RSI

Avg Value

Traded 3m

(USD mn)

Almarai 71.75 7651.8 17.6 18.3 20.2 19.7 3.4 8.2 2.0 1.9 65 9.1

Othaim 115.00 689.9 10.8 15.1 28.4 24.4 2.7 10.0 3.6 2.9 60 4.1

Alhokair 171.25 3196.3 11.8 16.6 35.8 35.4 3.8 18.8 - 2.3 77 3.9

Jarir Marketing 197.00 3151.6 16.3 18.3 59.0 57.7 9.1 30.8 4.8 4.4 68 1.9

Savola 50.00 6665.9 14.3 15.2 17.5 18.7 2.4 6.5 3.5 3.2 54 4.4

Agthia 3.20 522.7 10.5 13.2 11.5 13.2 1.2 7.9 2.3 2.3 61 0.3

Average 13.6 16.1 28.7 28.2 3.8 13.7 3.2 2.8


News Flow

Majid Al Futtaim said it will invest AED 3bn in projects across Dubai. The company will expand its Mall of the Emirates and build a

community mall. It also plans to build two hotels and will upgrade two existing properties. (Bloomberg)

According to reports, Dubai Duty Free is seeking to lower the interest on a USD 1.75bn loan by as much as 31% after Dubais default

risk plunged since the financing was signed last July. (Bloomberg)

y = 5.3016x - 57.231R = 0.4189

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0

BEstROE

2013

BEst PE 2013

Savola

Othaim

Alhokair

Almarai

Jarir Mktg

Agithia

y = 2.7644x + 1.3233R = 0.9052

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

ROA

2013

PB 2013

Alhokair

Savola

Agithia

Jarir

Almarai

Othaim


14/22


Construction & Building Materials Sector

PE/ROE 2013EPB/ROA 2013E

Company Price LLC

Market Cap

(USD mn)

PE

2012

BEst

PE

2013

ROE

2012

BEst

ROE

2013

PB

2012

ROA

2012

Dvd

Yld

2012

BEst

DvdYld

2013 RSI

Avg Value

Traded 3m

(USD mn)

Arabtec 2.10 1803.5 25.3 15.6 4.8 7.6 1.2 1.6 - 1.4 52 14.7

Depa 0.41 252.0 - 11.6 -7.3 1.0 0.5 -3.9 0.0 0.0 52 0.0

DSI 0.94 590.4 16.8 14.4 3.5 5.4 0.6 1.5 - 2.7 43 11.2

OCIC 246.18 7318.4 31.9 10.7 - 21.1 - - - 4.8 65 2.3

Average 24.7 13.1 0.3 8.8 0.8 -0.2 0.0 2.2


News Flow

Orascom Construction was awarded USD 420mn worth of infrastructure contracts in Saudi Arabia. (Bloomberg)

y = -0.7516x + 18.546R = 0.1126

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0

BEstROE

2013

BEst PE 2013

OCIC

Depa

DSI

Arabtec

y = 4.7374x - 1.7773R = 0.8554

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

ROA2013

PB 2013

Arabtec

DSI

Depa

OCIC


15/22


Energy & Utilities Sector


Company Price LLC

Market Cap

(USD mn)

PE

2012

BEst

PE

2013

ROE

2012

BEst

ROE

2013

PB

2012

ROA

2012

Dvd

Yld

2012

BEst

DvdYld

2013 RSI

Avg Value

Traded 3m

(USD mn)

Dana Gas 0.55 1006.6 4.9 5.2 7.1 8.9 0.3 4.9 - - 43 3.0

QEWC 162.10 4451.6 9.2 11.3 41.8 37.0 3.4 6.4 5.5 5.1 68 1.5

Saudi Electricity 12.90 14331.4 21.8 16.4 4.8 5.9 1.0 1.1 5.2 5.4 47 9.0

Tabreed 1.85 337.3 15.2 7.8 5.8 5.3 0.2 2.7 - - 53 9.5

Average 12.8 10.2 14.9 14.3 1.3 3.8 5.4 5.3


News Flow

Dana Gas said it made discovery of fuel at Bengonia-1 well in Egypt. (Bloomberg)

Saudi Electricity signed a SAR 6.3bn order to replace old cables and support electricity network in Saudi Arabia. (Bloomberg)

y = 0.3787x + 10.198R = 0.0145

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0

BEstROE

2013

BEst PE 2013

QEWC

Dana Gas Saudi ElectricityTabreed

y = 8.5918x - 5.5003R = 0.365

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4

ROA

2013

PB 2013

Amiantit

Elsewedy

GB Auto

KIPCO


16/22


Industrials Sector


Company Price LLC

Market Cap

(USD mn)

PE

2012

BEst

PE

2013

ROE

2012

BEst

ROE

2013

PB

2012

ROA

2012

Dvd

Yld

2012

BEst

DvdYld

2013 RSI

Avg Value

Traded 3m

(USD mn)

El Ezz Steel Rebars 472.99 919.8 10.5 10.7 19.2 - 2.1 3.8 12.5 8.7 74 0.0

Elswedy ElectriC 20.53 652.6 43.9 11.3 2.3 7.1 1.1 0.8 - 3.7 62 0.4

GB Auto 28.28 519.1 16.4 14.5 10.6 15.1 1.7 3.6 - 4.2 64 0.2

Oriental Weavers 21.85 279.8 7.6 7.4 9.3 9.9 0.7 4.4 - 10.3 59 0.2

Saudi Arabian Amiantit 13.95 429.6 14.7 9.9 7.0 8.8 1.1 2.4 - 8.0 47 3.1

Saudi Cable 13.35 270.5 - 8.3 -16.3 12.1 1.1 -4.0 0.0 6.3 50 3.8

KIPCO 550.00 2698.9 16.1 16.7 5.5 7.2 1.0 0.5 5.1 3.6 72 2.4

Dubai Investments 1.41 1390.1 9.5 - 3.8 - 0.4 2.4 8.2 - 50 15.9

Average 17.0 11.3 5.2 10.0 1.1 1.8 6.4 6.4


News Flow

y = -0.8711x + 15.147R = 0.1794

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

BEstROE

2013

BEst PE 2013

Amiantit

El swedy

GB Auto

Oriental Weavers

Saudi Cable

KIPCOy = 8.5918x - 5.5003

R = 0.365

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4

ROA2013

PB 2013

Amiantit

Elsewedy

GB Auto

KIPCO


17/22


Transport & Logistics Sector


Company Price LLC

Market Cap

(USD mn)

PE

2012

BEst

PE

2013

ROE

2012

BEst

ROE

2013

PB

2012

ROA

2012

Dvd

Yld

2012

BEst

DvdYld

2013 RSI

Avg Value

Traded 3m

(USD mn)

Air Arabia 1.09 1384.9 9.3 11.4 7.9 8.5 0.7 5.5 8.4 6.1 49 6.7

Aramex 2.60 1036.4 12.0 13.6 12.6 13.0 1.5 9.4 5.0 4.4 69 1.2

DPW 15.30 12699.0 13.0 22.7 9.6 6.9 1.2 4.3 1.8 1.6 43 3.1

National Shipping Co 20.00 1679.8 12.0 11.1 9.6 9.7 1.1 4.6 5.2 6.1 58 5.1

Agility 660.00 2536.6 14.8 13.5 3.8 5.9 0.6 2.4 5.9 4.5 46 4.9

QGTS 18.72 2878.9 11.0 12.4 47.6 56.5 4.8 2.5 6.6 6.0 65 3.4

Average 12.0 14.1 15.2 16.7 1.6 4.8 5.5 4.8


News Flow

y = -1.4241x + 34.357R = 0.0719

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 22.0

BEstROE

2013

BEst PE 2013

QGTS

Aramex

N. ShippingDPW

AgilityAir Arabia

y = 4.9412x - 0.0742R = 0.3011

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

ROA

2013

PB 2013

Aramex

DPW

Air Arabia


18/22


Financial Services Sector

Company Price LLC

Market Cap

(USD mn)

PE

2012

BEst

PE

2013

ROE

2012

BEst

ROE

2013

PB

2012

ROA

2012

Dvd

Yld

2012

BEst

DvdYld

2013 RSI

Avg Value

Traded 3m

(USD mn)

DFM 1.76 3855.2 231.8 77.0 0.5 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.1 51 18.3

EFG-Hermes 8.73 594.1 102.1 13.0 0.7 4.5 0.6 0.1 - 5.7 67 4.3

Tamweel 1.09 296.8 15.7 12.8 3.2 - 0.5 0.7 4.4 4.6 20 0.4

Average 116.5 34.3 1.4 3.3 0.7 0.4 2.2 3.8

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research,BEst

Bloomberg Estimate

News Flow


19/22


20/22


Other Asset Classes

CurrenciesClose %5d chg 1 year fwd Close %5d chg Close %5d chg

EURUSD 1.2829 -1.39 1.2867 USDTRY 1.9675 -2.00 EURAED 4.7126 +1.41

GBPUSD 1.4890 -2.12 1.4868 USDEGP 7.0283 -0.17 GBPAED 5.4670 +2.18

USDJPY 101.2000 -2.04 100.7580 USDSAR 3.7505 -0.01 JPYAED 0.0363 +2.07

USDCAD 1.0582 -0.60 1.0673 USDQAR 3.6415 -0.01 CADAED 3.4729 +0.52

AUDUSD 0.9067 -0.78 0.8843 USDKWD 0.2865 -0.48 AUDAED 3.3296 +0.81

USDCHF 0.9640 -1.97 0.9588 USDBHD 0.3770 -- CHFAED 3.8110 +2.00

EURGBP 0.8618 -0.76 0.8656 USDOMR 0.3850 -- TRYAED 1.8700 +1.60

USDCNY 6.1328 +0.08 6.1344 USDMAD 8.6558 -1.14 INRAED 0.0605 +1.84

Rates

Interbank 1 month 3 month 6 month 1 year Swaps Close 5d chg (bps)

EIBOR 0.5857 0.9114 1.1486 1.3314 USD 2 yr 0.5850 7.5

USD LIBOR 0.1948 0.2699 0.4099 0.6897 USD 5 yr 1.8196 25.4

GBP LIBOR 0.4931 0.5088 0.5949 0.8894 USD 10 yr 2.9940 29.7

EURIBOR 0.0736 0.1414 0.2471 0.4514 EUR 2 yr 0.5225 -7.7

JPY LIBOR 0.1171 0.1564 0.2307 0.4193 EUR 5 yr 1.1663 -6.7

CHF LIBOR -0.0040 0.0190 0.0804 0.2434 EUR 10 yr 2.0240 0.8

Commodities & Fixed Income

Commodities Close %5d chg Bonds / Sukuk YTM 5d chg (bps) CDS Close 5d chg (bps)

CRB CMDT Index - 0.47 ADGB 5.5 14 0.6110 -37.5 Abu Dhabi 74.2 -7.0

Gold 1223.20 -0.92 DUGB 6.396 14 2.2190 -12.5 Dubai 220.0 -19.1

Silver 18.91 -3.83 QATAR 5.15 14 0.4520 -50.0 Qatar 78.6 -6.4

Oil (WTI) 103.22 +6.36 BHRAIN 6.273 18 3.7800 +150.0 Saudi Arabia 71.1 -8.3

Oil (Brent) 107.72 +5.44 EGYPT 5.75 20 9.0550 +307.1 Bahrain 231.0 -28.4

Aluminium 1723.75 -0.35 TURKEY 7.25 15 2.3400 +25.5 Egypt 773.8 -107.9

Copper 6782.50 +0.77 MOROC 5.375 17 3.0320 +161.5 Turkey 200.0 +9.0

Tin (LME) 18788.00 -4.23 BTUN 4.5 20 5.3920 +50.0 Morocco 240.0 -37.4

Zinc (LME) 1808.50 -0.69 US Tsy 2 yr 0.3948 +3.9

US Tsy 10 yr 2.7391 +25.3

Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research


21/22


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22/22


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Equity Weekly 130707

Documents

Transcript of Equity Weekly 130707