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Transcript of Equity Valuation Report on eBay Inc
1 | P a g e
Equity Valuation Report
eBay Inc.
by Carlos Pang
CID 00892608
+44 7707 666060
2 | P a g e
Client Specification
This report is written for potential investors who have exposure, or are seeking to gain an
exposure to the e-commerce industry, especially in eBay Inc.
This report intends to provide in depth analysis in the global e-commerce industry and in
eBay Inc. to assists in making investments decisions.
The ultimate goal of this report is to provide an unbiased rating of the stock in the form of a
BUY/HOLD/SELL recommendation, as well as a 12 months target price of which we think is
fair.
The report is structured in four main parts:
Market Overview – analysing the retail sector and e-commerce subsector.
Company Analysis – providing a description of the company’s structure and analysing
its historical performance.
Strategy Analysis – providing SWOT analysis and analysing its future strategies that drives
future performance.
Valuation – computing our 12 months fair price for eBay Inc.’s equity share under bull,
base and bear case scenarios under various valuation methods.
Discolusre and disclaimer:
This report should be viewed as an opinion only.
The analyst who created this report was a business seller on eBay.co.uk under the account:
carlos_pang
3 | P a g e
Table of Contents
Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................. 6
Market Overview – Retail and E-commerce Industry ................................................................................. 7
Economic Outlook ............................................................................................................................................7
Top 250 Global Retailers / Top 50 E-commerce Retailers Analysis ..................................................................8
By Geographic Region .................................................................................................................................................. 8
By Primary Product Sector ........................................................................................................................................... 9
Company Analysis – eBay Inc. ................................................................................................................. 10
Company Description .................................................................................................................................... 10
M&A Activities ............................................................................................................................................... 10
Historical Performance .................................................................................................................................. 11
Strategy Analysis .................................................................................................................................... 12
SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 12
Recent Innovations Overview ........................................................................................................................ 12
BRIC Expansion Opportunity ......................................................................................................................... 13
Valuation ............................................................................................................................................... 16
Key Operational Assumptions ....................................................................................................................... 16
Working Capital Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 17
Consolidated Operational Model – Base Case .............................................................................................. 18
Method 1 – Discounted Cash Flow Valuation ............................................................................................... 19
Weighted Average Cost of Capital Calculation........................................................................................................... 19
Base Case ................................................................................................................................................................... 20
Bear Case .................................................................................................................................................................... 21
Bull Case ..................................................................................................................................................................... 22
Method 2 – Comparable Analysis .................................................................................................................. 23
Historical Trading Multiples ....................................................................................................................................... 23
Comparable Analysis .................................................................................................................................................. 23
Method 3 – Sum of the Part (SOTP) Analysis ................................................................................................ 24
Historical EV/Revenue multiple by Sector ................................................................................................................. 24
SOTP ........................................................................................................................................................................... 24
Valuation Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 25
References ............................................................................................................................................. 26
Appendix ............................................................................................................................................... 27
4 | P a g e
Table of Tables
Table 1 – Operational Assumptions – Base Case ...................................................................................... 16
Table 2 – Operational Assumptions – Bear Case ....................................................................................... 16
Table 3 – Operational Assumptions – Bull Case ......................................................................................... 17
Table 4 – Net Working Capital Analysis .................................................................................................... 17
Table 5 – Operational Model – Base Case ................................................................................................. 18
Table 6 – WACC ...................................................................................................................................... 19
Table 7 – DCF Projection – Base Case ....................................................................................................... 20
Table 8 – DCF Share Price Calculation – Base Case .................................................................................... 20
Table 9 – DCF Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case .......................................................................................... 20
Table 10 – DCF Projection – Bear Case .................................................................................................... 21
Table 11 – DCF Share Price Calculation – Bear Case .................................................................................. 21
Table 12 – DCF Sensitivity Analysis – Bear Case ........................................................................................ 21
Table 13 – DCF Projection – Bull Case ...................................................................................................... 22
Table 14 – DCF Share Price Calculation – Bull Case ................................................................................... 22
Table 15 – DCF Sensitivity Analysis – Bull Case ......................................................................................... 22
Table 16 – Historical Trading Multiples .................................................................................................... 23
Table 17 – Comp Valuation – Base Case .................................................................................................. 23
Table 18 – Comp Valuation – Bear Case ................................................................................................... 23
Table 19 – Comp Valuation – Bull Case .................................................................................................... 23
Table 20 – Historical Trading Multiple by Sector ....................................................................................... 24
Table 21 – SOTP Valuation – Base Case .................................................................................................... 24
Table 22 – SOTP Valuation – Bear Case .................................................................................................... 24
Table 23 – SOTP Valuation – Bull Case ..................................................................................................... 24
Table 24 – Summary – Share Price ........................................................................................................... 25
Table 25 – Summary – Enterprise Value ................................................................................................... 25
Table 26 – Operational Model – Bear Case ............................................................................................... 27
Table 27 – Operational Model – Bull Case ............................................................................................... 28
Table 28 – Income Statment .................................................................................................................... 29
Table 29 – Balance Sheet ........................................................................................................................ 30
Table 30 – Cash Flow Statement .............................................................................................................. 30
5 | P a g e
Table of Figures
Figure 1 – US Retail Sales .......................................................................................................................... 7
Figure 2 – US Retail Sales Growth .............................................................................................................. 7
Figure 3 – US E-commerce Sales Migration ................................................................................................ 7
Figure 4 – Share of Total Sales among the Top 250 by Geography ................................................................ 8
Figure 5 – Top 250 Sales Growth by Geography .......................................................................................... 8
Figure 6 – Top 50 E-commerce Penetration and Growth by Geography ........................................................ 8
Figure 7 – Share of Total Sales among the Top 250 by Sector....................................................................... 9
Figure 8 – Top 250 Sales Growth by Sector ................................................................................................. 9
Figure 9 – Top 50 E-commerce Penetration and Growth by Sector............................................................... 9
Figure 10 – eBay Revenue by Sector ........................................................................................................ 10
Figure 11 – eBay Revenue by Region ........................................................................................................ 10
Figure 12 – eBay Revenue Evolution by Sector .......................................................................................... 11
Figure 13 – eBay Revenue Growth by Sector ............................................................................................ 11
Figure 14 – eBay EBITDA Margin Evolution by Sector ................................................................................ 11
Figure 15 – eBay Total Users ................................................................................................................... 11
Figure 16 – eBay Total Users Growth ....................................................................................................... 11
Figure 17 – BRIC Expansion ..................................................................................................................... 13
Figure 18 – Cash Evolution ...................................................................................................................... 13
Figure 19 – eBay Russia ........................................................................................................................... 14
Figure 20 – eBay Now ............................................................................................................................. 15
Figure 21 – Russia e-commerce forecast .................................................................................................. 14
Figure 22 – Brazil e-commerce forecast .................................................................................................... 14
Figure 23 – India e-commerce forecast .................................................................................................... 15
Figure 24 – China e-commerce forecast ................................................................................................... 15
Figure 25 – Target Share Price Football Field ............................................................................................ 25
Figure 26 – Target Enterprise Value Football Field .................................................................................... 25
6 | P a g e
Executive Summary
Today’s Date 24/07/2014
Ticker EBAY US
12 Months Rating BUY
12 Months Target Price 64.0
Share Price as of Today 52.7
Stock Price Evolution
Trading Data and Key Metrics
52 Week Range 48.06-59.70
Shares Outstanding 1295m
Market Cap 68.2bn
P/E 24.9x
EPS 2.21
Financial Highlights
$m FY2011 FY2012 FY2013
Revenue 11652 14072 16047
% growth 27.3% 20.8% 14.0%
EBITDA 3313 4088 4771
% sales 28.4% 29.1% 29.7%
EBIT 2373 2888 3371
% sales 20.4% 20.5% 21.0%
Net Income 3229 2609 2856
EPS 2.50 2.02 2.21
Target Price Recommendation
We recommend a 12 months target price of
$64.0 with an upside of $79.3 and downside
of $49.0 based on our bull and bear case
scenarios.
This price is a weighted average of our target
prices obtained by discounted cash flow
analysis with perpetuity method ($78.9),
discounted cash flow analysis with exit
multiple method ($99.3), comparable analysis
($52.0) and sum of the part analysis ($50.8).
Outperforming e-commerce market
The internet and mobile revolution is driving
the e-commerce market. In 2012, US retail
sales grew at 5% while US e-commerce sales
grew at 15%. E-commerce growth is
catalysed by the development in online
payment system, targeted advertising as well
as cheaper and quicker delivery.
Upside from Marketplaces innovations
Recent innovations such as eBay Now (1 hour
delivery system), PhiSix Fashion Lab (virtually
try on clothing before purchase) and Global
Shipping Programme (discount international
shipping through economies of scale), are
motivating medium to long term growth.
International market opportunities
Expansion especially in the BRIC region is a
key growth driver for eBay, as BRIC offers
faster growth and less e-commerce
penetrated market. The world’s top 50 online
retailer’s ecommerce sales grew at a
staggering 35% in the Asia Pacific region in
2012.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jul/11 Jul/12 Jul/13 Jul/14 Jul/15
7 | P a g e
Market Overview – Retail and E-commerce Industry
Economic Outlook
2013 was a difficult year for the global retail industry. Europe entered recession which lasted until the
first quarter of 2013; there were fear that the Eurozone would fail; China’s growth slowed
considerably. Although the US market showed signs of modest recovery and emerging market
growth remained reasonably strong, the overall economic environment was weak. Despite the
difficult economy, US total retail sales and US total e-commerce sales grew by 5% and 15%
respectively in 2012.
Source: www.census.gov
Source: www.census.gov
Going forward, we expect to see a continued migration of retail sales from traditional channel to
online channel, driven by mobile computing devices, cheaper and more efficient shipping
programs, and faster delivery times. We expect to see a 14.4% 2013-2023 CAGR e-commerce sales.
3,999 3,946
3,630
3,841
4,133
4,344
136 141 145 169
198 227
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Figure 1 - US Retail Sales ($Billion)
Total Sales E-commerce Sales
3%-1%
-8%
6% 8%5%
20%
4% 3%
17% 17%15%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Figure 2 - US Retail Sales Growth
Total Sales Growth
E-commerce Sales Growth
3.4% 3.6%4.0%
4.4%4.8%
5.2%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Figure 3 - US E-commerce Sales
Migration
E-commerce Sales / Total Sales
8 | P a g e
Market Overview – Retail and E-commerce Industry
Top 250 Global Retailers / Top 50 E-commerce Retailers Analysis
We have analysed the top 250 global retailers and top 50 global e-commerce retailers by
sales. We have analysed the growth rates and profitability by geographic regions as well as
by primary product sectors. To assess fundamental demand, the analysis excludes
facilitators like Ebay, Alibaba and Tmall. It also excludes 9 other companies including apple
whose unusually high profit distorts the results.
By Geographic Region
North America
North America makes up the largest share of
sales from the top 250 retailers with 45.2%. US
sales growth cooled from 6.3% to 4.3% in 2012.
28 of the largest 50 e-commerce retailers are
from the US. We see an above average e-
commerce penetration (12%) and a below
average e-commerce sales growth (19%).
Latin America
Latin American retailers have the highest sales
CAGR of 14.7%. Strong growth is also
accompanied by industry leading profitability
with 4.9% net profit margin.
Europe
European retailers are dragged by the
Eurozone credit crisis, resulting in slow growth
(4.5% 2012 sales growth) and high
unemployment. Despite 17 of the largest 50 e-
commerce retailers are from Europe, only 5%
of total sales are e-commerce sales.
Asia Pacific
Eurozone crisis considerably reduced Europe’s
demand of Chinese import, hurting Chinese
sales growth (4.9% 2012 sales growth). Large
and rapidly growing e-commerce companies
are driving market leading e-commerce
growth (35%)
Africa / Middle East
Similar to Latin America, Africa / Middle East
experienced strong growth 17% CAGR with
above average profitability 4.4$ net profit
margin.
Source: Deloitte – Global Powers of Retailing 2014
Source: Deloitte – Global Powers of Retailing 2014
Most of Africa / Middle East do not have online operation
Source: Deloitte – Global Powers of Retailing 2014
Africa/Mi
ddle East,
1.1%
Asia
Pacific,
15.1%
Europe,
37.1%Latin
America,
1.6%
North
America,
45.2%
Figure 4 - Share of Total Sales among
the Top 250
17.0%
4.9% 4.5%
14.8%
4.2%13.5%
4.9% 4.5%
14.7%
4.8%
Figure 5 - Top 250 Sales Growth
2007-2012 Sales CAGR 2012 Sales Growth
6% 5% 8%12%
35%
25%20% 19%
Asia Pacific Europe Latin
America
North
America
Figure 6 - Top 50 E-commerce
Penetration and Growth
E-commerse Sales / Total Sales
2012 E-commerce Sales Growth
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Market Overview – Retail and E-commerce Industry
Top 250 Global Retailers / Top 50 E-commerce Retailers Analysis
By Primary Product Sector
Fashion Goods
Fashion Goods is the most profitable sector in
2012 as well as historically, with a 7.4% net
profit margin. It is considerably smaller than
the other product sectors except diversified
goods. E-commerce penetration is below
average (7%) possibly because customers are
reluctant to buy clothes which they haven’t
tried on. But technological advances and
cheaper return postages are mitigating this
problem, driving its e-commerce growth
(24%).
Fast-moving Consumer Goods
FMCG is the largest product sector. It enjoyed
the strongest CAGR and 2012 growth (both
5.3%). This is not surprising given demands for
food and other packaged goods are less
sensitive to the recession. Since foods are
limited by expiry dates, food retailers are less
likely to sell online, resulting in a low e-
commerce penetration (2%). However, we
see the highest e-commerce sales growth in
this sector.
Hardlines & Leisure Goods
Excluding Apple whose large profit skewed
the data, consumer electronics and
entertainment media retailers within this sector
faces a challenging operating environment,
half of which operated at a loss in 2012.
Despite this, the sector saw a 4.5% growth in
2012 and a market leading e-commerce
penetration.
Diversified Goods
This comprises of companies who did not have
a majority of sales for the three above sectors.
It is the worst performing sector in terms of
growth with CAGR of 2.3% and 2012 growth of
2.6%.
Source: Deloitte – Global Powers of Retailing 2014
Source: Deloitte – Global Powers of Retailing 2014
Source: Deloitte – Global Powers of Retailing 2014
Fashion
Goods,
8.8%
Fast-
moving
Consume
r Goods,
68.3%
Hardlines
& Leisure
Goods,
14.9%
Diversified
, 8.0%
Figure 7 - Share of Total Sales
amoung the Top 250
3.3%
5.3%
3.9%
2.3%
5.1% 5.3%4.5%
2.6%
Fashion
Goods
Fast-moving
Consumer
Goods
Hardlines &
Leisure
Goods
Diversified
Figure 8 - Top 250 Sales Growth
2007-2012 Sales CAGR 2012 Sales Growth
7%2%
15% 14%
24% 26% 24% 22%
Fashion
Goods
Fast-moving
Consumer
Goods
Hardlines &
Leisure
Goods
Diversified
Figure 9 - Top 50 E-commerce
Penetration and Growth
E-commerse Sales / Total Sales
2012 E-commerce Sales Growth
10 | P a g e
Company Analysis – eBay Inc.
Company Description
eBay is a global commerce and payments platform. It connects buyers and sellers of all size
as well as offer payment solutions. eBay operates through three reportable segments:
Marketplaces, Payments and Enterprise.
Marketplaces
It includes eBay’s core global e-commerce
platform, ebay.com, and other localized sites
such as eBay.de and eBay.co.uk and other
products specific sites such as stubhub.com
(for event tickets).
Payments
It include eBay’s core payment brand PayPal,
which facilitates quick and secure worldwide
payments through a broad range of mobile
devices. It also includes a credit business, Bill
Me Later which allows consumers to use credit
payments for their purchases.
Enterprise
eBay acquired GSI commerce in 2011, which
creates and maintain online stores for large,
nationally recognized retailers. It also provides
marketing, customer care, technology
integration solutions. GSI was renamed
Enterprise in 2013
Source: eBay Annual Report 2014
Source: eBay Annual Report 2014
M&A Activities
Recent M&A Strategy
Fredrik Ahlberg, head of expansion at eBay explains that eBay’s M&A strategy addresses four key
areas: mobile, local, social and digital. He says that development in mobile devices are shaping
demand for retailers; more people than ever are using the internet to find items that are close to
them locally; development in social media are revolutionising the marketing business; technology is
having a big impact on payment solutions.
Notable Acquisitions
2014 Enable Customer to virtually try on clothes online before purchasing
2013 Offer one day delivery by connecting retailer with local courier
2013 Helps online business to process credit card payments
2011 Provide localised information to facilitate advertisement
Source: Own Construction
Marketpl
aces
52%Payments
41%
Enterprise
7%
Figure 10 - Revenue By Sector
U.S
48%Internatio
nal
52%
Figure 11 - Revenue By Region
11 | P a g e
Company Analysis – eBay Inc.
Historical Performance
Source: eBay Annual Report 2014
We saw a declining sales growth for eBay
for the past 3 years. However the sales
growth of 21% and 14% in year 2012 and
2013 were both higher than its US industry
average growth of 14% and 13%, but
were lower than global industry average
growth of 22% and 18%.
Growth was mainly driven by its PayPal
business, which was actively expanding
its offline business into restaurants and gas
stations.
We also saw an increasing EBITDA Margin
for the past 3 years from 28% to 30%
Source: eBay Annual Report 2014
Source: Statista 2014
Source: eBay Annual Report 2014
Source: Statista 2014
We saw a healthy growth for eBay’s client base, especially for Market Place buyers whose
growth accelerated to 30% in 2013.
9156
11652
14072
16047
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2010 2011 2012 2013
Figure 12 - Revenue Growth By Sector
($M)
Marketplaces Payments Enterprise
16%
11% 12%
28%26%
19%27%
21%
14%
2011A 2012A 2013A
Figure 13 - Revenue Growth By Sector
Marketplaces Payments Total
95 100 108140
94 106123
143
2010 2011 2012 2013
Figure 15 - Total Users (M)
eBay Total Active Buyers
PayPal Total Active Accounts
37% 36% 37% 38%
20% 20%22% 23%
31%28% 29% 30%
2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A
Figure 14 - EBITDA Margin By Sector
Marketplaces Payments Total
6% 8%
30%
13%15% 16%
2011 2012 2013
Figure 16 - Total Users Growth
eBay Buyers Growth
PayPal Accounts Growth
12 | P a g e
Strategy Analysis
SWOT Analysis
Strength Weakness
Market leader with a Strong Brand – world’s
largest internet marketplace
Attractive Business Model – does not
compete with merchants as they do not sell
products under their own name (unlike
Amazon)
High level of innovation in market places –
including eBay Now, Global Shipping
Program, The Plaza and the acquisition of
PhiSix
Declining overall fee – driven by
competitive pressures may weaken margins
in Marketplaces, sacrificing profitability in
the short term but may bring growth into the
long term
Low margins in PayPal – driven by expansion
activities, sacrificing profitability in the short
term but may bring growth into the long
term
Opportunity Threat
BRIC expansion opportunity – increasing
exposure to high growth, less penetrated e-
commerce market
Mobile expansion – taking advantage of
the growing number of mobile shoppers
Possible slowdown of PayPal growth –
caused by a slowdown in US e-commerce
industry growth
Competition in Marketplaces from Aboard –
such as Alibaba, TaoBao, Tencent
Recent Innovations Overview
eBay Now – 1 hour delivery
Launched in 2012 in US, eBay Now allow consumer to browse, purchase and receive goods from
local merchants within 1 hour. The 2012 acquisition of Shutl is expected to enable expansion to 25 US
market as well as London by the end of 2014, enabling eBay to access ~50% of US GDP. The service
cost only $5 per delivery. It provides a way to compete with Amazon’s delivery by drones.
The Plaza – eBay online storefront
It is expected to rollout in 2014. It creates an online shopping mall for larger brands. It allows them to
design their own storefront and distance themselves from the used/second handed goods concept
that the eBay brand may bring while still benefit from the strong eBay site traffic.
Global Shipping Program
US sellers can now ship to over 40 countries worldwide by sending their parcels to the international
shipping centre in Kentucky. eBay utilises the economies of scale and reduces the cost of handling
customs, duties, taxes etc.
PhiSix
The 2014 acquisition is developing a virtual dressing room technology that allows consumers to
virtually try on clothes by sending their measurements online. This will help alleviate traditional
concerns about whether clothes purchased online will fit.
13 | P a g e
Strategy Analysis
BRIC Expansion Opportunity
Figure 17
Source: eBay company report
In 2012, approximately 6 million Marketplaces active users located in BRIC. eBay stated a
goal of increasing this number by 6.5 folds. We believe eBay is able to achieve this by
making significant investment and utilising their large cash balance which stood at
approximately 9 billion by the end of 2014.
Source: eBay Annual Report 2014
6622 59299408 9025
2010 2011 2012 2013
Figure 18 - Cash ($M)
Cash & Equivalents
14 | P a g e
Strategy Analysis
BRIC Expansion Opportunity
Figure 19
Source: eBay company report
Russia
eBay’s operation in Russia mostly comprise of
importing goods from other region. In
September 2013, eBay added Russia to its
Global Shipping Programme, allowing US
sellers to sell to Russia.
According to UBS, eBay is currently the top
international player in Russia already, further,
Russian active users roughly doubled during
2013 to achieve more than 1 million active
users.
The Russian e-commerce market grew by 23%
in 2013. Statista forecasts a CAGR of 14% from
2012-2016.
Brazil
eBay’s Brazilian Marketplaces business is still in
its early development stage. On the other
hand, the PayPal business has been operating
in Brazil since 2012.
eBay acquired 20% stakes in Mercadolibre
which is the dominant e-commerce
marketplace in Brazil.
The Brazilian e-commerce market grew by 16%
in 2013. Statista forecast a CAGR of 13% from
2012-2016.
Source: Statista 2014
Source: Statista 2014
1821
23 2521%19%
11%7%
2013 2014 2015 2016
Figure 21 - Russia e-commerce
Forecast ($Bn)
eCommerce Sales
eCommerce Sales Growth
1821 23 25
16%20%
8% 7%
2013 2014 2015 2016
Figure 22 - Brazil e-commerce Sales
($Bn)
E-commerce Sales
E-commerce Sales Growth
15 | P a g e
Strategy Analysis
BRIC Expansion Opportunity
Figure 20
Source: eBay website
India
eBay recently offered a 9-hour delivery service
in Mumbai. In addition, eBay’s innovation
PowerShip program provides Indian sellers with
packing materials, doorstep pick up of
packages, discount delivery etc by partnering
with shipping companies such as Fed-Ex.
The Indian e-commerce market grew by 35%
in 2013. Statista forecast a CAGR of 27% from
2012-2016.
China
eBay has large competitors in China including
Taobao and TMall, which forced eBay to exit
China market a few years after it entered in
2003.
eBay re-entered by focusing on the export
market, offering Chinese seller to sell aboard.
On the importing side, it partnered with
Xiu.com to focus on the fashion sector.
The Chinese e-commerce market grew by
65% in 2013. Statista forecast a CAGR of 41%
from 2012-2016.
Source: Statista 2014
Source: Statista 2014
1621
2631
35%
27%24% 22%
2013 2014 2015 2016
Figure 23 - India e-commerce Sales
($Bn)
E-commerce Sales
E-commerce Sales Growth
182
275
359
44065%
51%
31%23%
2013 2014 2015 2016
Figure 24 - China e-commerce Sales
($Bn)
E-commerce Sales
E-commerce Sales Growth
16 | P a g e
Valuation
Key Operational Assumptions
Base Case
We expect strong revenue growths driven by expansion opportunity in BRIC market, the
continuing mobile revolution, and the continuing migration from retail to online sales.
We forecast modest margin improvements due to the continued investment in new innovations
and international markets, as well as higher growth in the low margin PayPal Business.
Bear Case
Bear Case reflects the possible negative impact to revenue growth due to tough competition in
the Marketplaces business and a slowdown in user growth in PayPal and Marketplaces, as well
as a generally weaker global retail market due to macro uncertainties.
Table 1 - Operational Assumptions - Base Case
2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Revenue Growth
Marketplaces 9.7% 11.2% 10.0% 9.0% 8.5% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Payments 19.0% 23.9% 24.0% 25.0% 22.0% 19.0% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Enterprise 9.0% 12.5% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%
SG&A 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%
EBITDA Margin
Marketplaces 38.7% 39.7% 40.0% 40.5% 40.3% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%
Payments 22.5% 22.7% 23.0% 23.0% 23.5% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0%
Enterprise 7.0% 7.3% 7.6% 8.0% 7.7% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5%
Deperation and Amortization
Marketplaces 11.7% 11.7% 13.0% 13.0% 12.0% 12.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%
Payments 7.0% 8.0% 8.0% 9.0% 9.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
Enterprise 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Income taxes 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1%
CapEx 9% 10% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Table 2 - Operational Assumptions - Bear Case
2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Revenue Growth
Marketplaces 5.8% 6.7% 6.0% 5.4% 5.1% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6%
Payments 11.4% 14.3% 14.4% 15.0% 13.2% 11.4% 9.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Enterprise 5.4% 7.5% 8.4% 7.2% 6.0% 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2%
SG&A 41.0% 41.0% 41.0% 41.0% 41.0% 41.0% 41.0% 41.0% 41.0% 41.0%
EBITDA Margin
Marketplaces 34.8% 35.7% 36.0% 36.5% 36.3% 36.0% 36.0% 36.0% 36.0% 36.0%
Payments 20.3% 20.4% 20.7% 20.7% 21.2% 21.6% 21.6% 21.6% 21.6% 21.6%
Enterprise 6.3% 6.6% 6.8% 7.2% 6.9% 6.8% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5%
Deperation and Amortization
Marketplaces 12.2% 12.3% 13.7% 13.7% 12.6% 12.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6%
Payments 7.3% 8.4% 8.4% 9.5% 9.5% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4%
Enterprise 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%
Income taxes 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2%
CapEx 5.4% 6.0% 5.4% 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2%
17 | P a g e
Valuation
Bull Case
Bull Case reflects the possible up side impact of eBay innovations (eBay Now, Global Shipping
Program, The Plaza, acquisition of PhiSix) on sales growth especially in the medium and long
term.
It also assumes continued strong user growth at Marketplaces and Payments as well as
continued strong e-commerce penetrations.
Working Capital Analysis
Source: Bloomberg, eBay Annual Report, own construction
Days receivable and payable forecasts are based on the average of past 3 years.
Table 3 - Operational Assumptions - Bull Case
2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Revenue Growth
Marketplaces 12.6% 14.6% 13.0% 11.7% 11.1% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8%
Payments 24.7% 31.1% 31.2% 32.5% 28.6% 24.7% 19.5% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0%
Enterprise 11.7% 16.3% 18.2% 15.6% 13.0% 10.4% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1%
SG&A 39.0% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0%
EBITDA Margin
Marketplaces 40.6% 41.7% 42.0% 42.5% 42.3% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0%
Payments 23.6% 23.8% 24.2% 24.2% 24.7% 25.2% 25.2% 25.2% 25.2% 25.2%
Enterprise 7.4% 7.7% 8.0% 8.4% 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9%
Deperation and Amortization
Marketplaces 11.1% 11.1% 12.4% 12.4% 11.4% 11.4% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5%
Payments 6.6% 7.6% 7.6% 8.6% 8.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6%
Enterprise 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
Income taxes 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0%
CapEx 10.8% 12.0% 10.8% 9.6% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4%
Table 4 - Net Working Capital Analysis
2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Short term investments 3600.5 4388.6 5349.3 6551.8 7913.6 9323.0 10730.6 11932.2 13274.7 14775.2
Days 69.7 69.7 69.7 69.7 69.7 69.7 69.7 69.7 69.7 69.7
Accounts & notes receivables 2052.0 2501.2 3048.7 3734.1 4510.2 5313.5 6115.7 6800.5 7565.6 8420.8
Days 39.7 39.7 39.7 39.7 39.7 39.7 39.7 39.7 39.7 39.7
Other current assets 12521.6 15262.5 18603.6 22785.5 27521.6 32423.1 37318.2 41497.1 46165.9 51384.3
Days 242.3 242.3 242.3 242.3 242.3 242.3 242.3 242.3 242.3 242.3
Total currrent assets 18174.1 22152.3 27001.6 33071.4 39945.4 47059.6 54164.5 60229.7 67006.3 74580.3
Accounts payable 405.8 491.6 604.4 749.8 914.7 1087.2 1263.6 1411.4 1577.2 1763.0
Days 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1
Short-term borrowings 491.4 599.0 730.2 894.3 1080.2 1272.5 1464.7 1628.7 1811.9 2016.7
Days 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5
Other short term liabilities 12564.6 15314.9 18667.5 22863.8 27616.2 32534.5 37446.5 41639.7 46324.6 51560.9
Days 243.2 243.2 243.2 243.2 243.2 243.2 243.2 243.2 243.2 243.2
Total current liabilities 13461.9 16405.6 20002.0 24507.8 29611.0 34894.2 40174.7 44679.7 49713.7 55340.7
Net Working Capital 4712.3 5746.7 6999.6 8563.5 10334.4 12165.4 13989.8 15550.0 17292.6 19239.7
Change in Net Working Capital (1437.7) 1034.5 1252.9 1563.9 1770.9 1831.0 1824.4 1560.2 1742.6 1947.1
18 | P a g e
Valuation
Consolidated Operational Model – Base Case
To obtain segment specific trading multiples and improve our confidence in assumption, we
have conducted our forecast for revenue growth and margins at the segment level.
Adjusted EBIT is derived from GAAP EBIT minus their pro-rated corporate cost based on GAAP
EBIT share.
Depreciation and amortization are also pro-rated based on GAAP EBIT share.
Tax Expense as a percentage of EBIT is an average from past 3 years.
Table 5 - Operational Model
2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Revenue 11652 14072 16047 18210 21264 24811 29028 33564 38017 42297 45867 49754 53987
% growth 27.3% 20.8% 14.0% 13.5% 16.8% 16.7% 17.0% 15.6% 13.3% 11.3% 8.4% 8.5% 8.5%
Marketplaces 6642 7398 8284 9088 10105 11116 12116 13146 13935 14771 15657 16597 17593
% growth 16.1% 11.4% 12.0% 9.7% 11.2% 10.0% 9.0% 8.5% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Payments 4412 5574 6628 7887 9772 12118 15147 18480 21991 25289 27818 30600 33660
% growth 28.4% 26.3% 18.9% 19.0% 23.9% 24.0% 25.0% 22.0% 19.0% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Enterprise 590 1083 1112 1212 1364 1554 1741 1915 2068 2213 2368 2534 2711
% growth - 83.6% 2.7% 9.0% 12.5% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%
Corporate 8 39 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55
% growth - 387.5% 41.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elimination 0 (22) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32)
% growth - - 45.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cost of Revenue (3461) (4216) (5036) (5554) (6429) (7535) (8886) (10350) (11803) (13234) (14403) (15679) (17073)
% sales 29.7% 30.0% 31.4% 30.5% 30.2% 30.4% 30.6% 30.8% 31.0% 31.3% 31.4% 31.5% 31.6%
Gross Profit 8191 9856 11011 12656 14835 17276 20141 23214 26214 29062 31464 34074 36914
SG&A (4878) (5768) (6240) (7284) (8506) (9924) (11611) (13426) (15207) (16919) (18347) (19901) (21595)
% sales 41.9% 41.0% 38.9% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%
EBITDA 3313 4088 4771 5372 6330 7352 8530 9788 11007 12144 13117 14173 15319
% sales 28.4% 29.1% 29.7% 29.5% 29.8% 29.6% 29.4% 29.2% 29.0% 28.7% 28.6% 28.5% 28.4%
Marketplaces 2361 2716 3178 3512 4012 4446 4907 5298 5574 5908 6263 6639 7037
% segment sales 35.5% 36.7% 38.4% 38.7% 39.7% 40.0% 40.5% 40.3% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%
Payments 878 1254 1506 1775 2218 2787 3484 4343 5278 6069 6676 7344 8078
% segment sales 19.9% 22.5% 22.7% 22.5% 22.7% 23.0% 23.0% 23.5% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0%
Enterprise 74 118 86 85 100 118 139 147 155 166 178 190 203
% segment sales 12.6% 10.9% 7.8% 7.0% 7.3% 7.6% 8.0% 7.7% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5%
Depreciation and amortization (940) (1200) (1400) (1645) (2005) (2460) (2990) (3298) (3493) (3715) (4019) (4351) (4711)
% sales 8.1% 8.5% 8.7% 9.0% 9.4% 9.9% 10.3% 9.8% 9.2% 8.8% 8.8% 8.7% 8.7%
Marketplaces (670) (797) (933) (1059) (1183) (1445) (1575) (1578) (1672) (1625) (1722) (1826) (1935)
% segment sales 10.1% 10.8% 11.3% 11.7% 11.7% 13.0% 13.0% 12.0% 12.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%
Payments (249) (368) (442) (551) (782) (969) (1363) (1663) (1759) (2023) (2225) (2448) (2693)
% segment sales 5.6% 6.6% 6.7% 7.0% 8.0% 8.0% 9.0% 9.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
Enterprise (21) (35) (25) (35) (40) (46) (52) (57) (62) (67) (72) (77) (83)
% segment sales 3.6% 3.2% 2.3% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
EBIT (adjusted) 2373 2888 3371 3726 4325 4891 5540 6490 7514 8429 9097 9822 10608
% sales 20.4% 20.5% 21.0% 20.5% 20.3% 19.7% 19.1% 19.3% 19.8% 19.9% 19.8% 19.7% 19.6%
Marketplaces 1691 1919 2246 2454 2829 3001 3332 3720 3902 4284 4541 4813 5102
% segment sales 25.5% 25.9% 27.1% 27.0% 28.0% 27.0% 27.5% 28.3% 28.0% 29.0% 29.0% 29.0% 29.0%
Payments 629 886 1064 1223 1437 1818 2121 2680 3519 4046 4451 4896 5386
% segment sales 14.2% 15.9% 16.1% 15.5% 14.7% 15.0% 14.0% 14.5% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Enterprise 53 83 61 50 60 72 88 90 93 99 106 113 121
% segment sales 9.0% 7.7% 5.5% 4.1% 4.4% 4.7% 5.0% 4.7% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Net Interest 1537 196 95 104 121 137 155 182 210 236 255 275 297
% EBIT 64.8% 6.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%
EBT 3910 3084 3466 3831 4446 5028 5696 6672 7724 8665 9352 10097 10905
% sales 33.6% 21.9% 21.6% 21.0% 20.9% 20.3% 19.6% 19.9% 20.3% 20.5% 20.4% 20.3% 20.2%
Tax Expense (681) (475) (610) (786) (913) (1032) (1169) (1369) (1585) (1779) (1920) (2072) (2238)
% EBIT 28.7% 16.4% 18.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1%
Net Income 3229 2609 2856 3045 3533 3996 4526 5303 6139 6887 7433 8025 8667
% sales 27.7% 18.5% 17.8% 16.7% 16.6% 16.1% 15.6% 15.8% 16.1% 16.3% 16.2% 16.1% 16.1%
19 | P a g e
Valuation
Method 1 – Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
Weighted Average Cost of Capital Calculation
CAPM is used to compute the weighted
average cost of capital for eBay.
Cost of debt is calculated from eBay annual
report.
Risk free rate is the US 10 years Government
Bond yield.
Market risk premium is calculated from S&P
500 10 years annual return less the risk free
rate.
Tax Rate is taken from the eBay annual report
As a result, we obtained a 8.6% WACC.
Our forecasted Unlevered Free Cash Flows are discounted at this WACC in the calculations
that follow in the next three pages.
The sum of the discounted free cash flows is added to the terminal value to obtain the present
value of the enterprise value. From which, we can deduce the equity value and therefore
targeted share price.
We calculated terminal value by two methods, the perpetuity method and the exit multiple
method.
Using the perpetuity method, we get target prices of $100, $79, $60 for bull, base and bear
case scenarios.
Using the exit multiple method, we get target prices of $137, $99 and $66 for bull, base and
bear case scenarios.
Table 6 - WACC
Capital Structure
Debt 4123
Equity 13033
Debt/V 24.0%
Equity/V 76.0%
Cost of Debt
Cost of Debt 5.2%
Tax Rate 35.0%
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.4%
Cost of Equity
Risk-free Rate 2.5%
Market Risk Premium 7.3%
Levered Beta 1.060
Cost of Equity (CAPM) 10.3%
WACC 8.6%
20 | P a g e
Valuation
Method 1 – Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
Base Case
Table 7 - Income Statement Projection
2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Revenues 18210 21264 24811 29028 33564 38017 42297 45867 49754 53987
% Growth 13.5% 16.8% 16.7% 17.0% 15.6% 13.3% 11.3% 8.4% 8.5% 8.5%
EBITDA 5372 6330 7352 8530 9788 11007 12144 13117 14173 15319
% Margin 29.5% 29.8% 29.6% 29.4% 29.2% 29.0% 28.7% 28.6% 28.5% 28.4%
EBIT 3726 4325 4891 5540 6490 7514 8429 9097 9822 10608
% Margin 20.5% 20.3% 19.7% 19.1% 19.3% 19.8% 19.9% 19.8% 19.7% 19.6%
- Tax (786) (913) (1032) (1169) (1369) (1585) (1779) (1920) (2072) (2238)
% EBIT 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1% 21.1%
EBIAT 2940 3412 3859 4371 5121 5928 6651 7178 7750 8370
+ Depreciation 1645 2005 2460 2990 3298 3493 3715 4019 4351 4711
- Capital Expenditure (1639) (2126) (2233) (2322) (2349) (2661) (2961) (3211) (3483) (3779)
- Increase in Net Working Capital 1605 (766) (883) (1048) (1126) (1105) (1059) (885) (964) (1049)
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 4552 2524 3203 3991 4943 5656 6345 7101 7654 8252
Discount Factor 0.921 0.847 0.780 0.718 0.661 0.608 0.560 0.515 0.474 0.437
Present Value of Free Cash Flow 4190 2139 2498 2866 3267 3441 3553 3660 3632 3604
Table 8 - Share Price Calculation
Terminal Value - Perpetuity Method Terminal Value - Exit Multiple Method
2023E FCF 8252 2023E EBITDA 15319
Perpetuity Growth Rate 3.0% Exit Multiple 13.9x
Terminal Value 150798 Terminal Value 212213
Discount Factor 0.437 Discount Factor 0.437
PV of Terminal Value 65862 PV of Terminal Value 92686
Implied Share Price - Perpetuity Method Implied Share Price - Exit Multiple Method
Sum of Discounted FCF 32850 Sum of Discounted FCF 32850
PV of Terminal Value 65862 PV of Terminal Value 92686
Enterprise Value 2013 98712 Enterprise Value 2013 125536
- Net Debt (4123) - Net Debt (4123)
+ Cash 9025 + Cash 9025
Implied Equity Value 103614 Implied Equity Value 130438
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1313 Diluted Shares Outstanding 1313
Share Price 79 Share Price 99
Table 9 - Sensitiv ity Analysis
103614 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 130437.7 13.8x 13.8x 13.9x 13.9x 13.9x
7.6% 111085 118434 127368 138461 152606 7.6% 141135 141172 141209 141246 141282
8.1% 101367 107267 114316 122885 133525 8.1% 135622 135657 135692 135727 135762
8.6% 93147 97954 103614 110376 118597 8.6% 130371 130404 130438 130471 130505
9.1% 86108 90074 94687 100118 106606 9.1% 125368 125400 125432 125464 125496
9.6% 80017 83325 87131 91558 96770 9.6% 120601 120631 120662 120692 120723
78.9 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 99.3 13.8x 13.8x 13.9x 13.9x 13.9x
7.6% 84.6 90.2 97.0 105.5 116.2 7.6% 107.5 107.5 107.5 107.6 107.6
8.1% 77.2 81.7 87.1 93.6 101.7 8.1% 103.3 103.3 103.3 103.4 103.4
8.6% 70.9 74.6 78.9 84.1 90.3 8.6% 99.3 99.3 99.3 99.4 99.4
9.1% 65.6 68.6 72.1 76.3 81.2 9.1% 95.5 95.5 95.5 95.6 95.6
9.6% 60.9 63.5 66.4 69.7 73.7 9.6% 91.9 91.9 91.9 91.9 91.9
Equity Value Sensitiv ity - Exit Multiple Method
Share Price Sensitiv ity - Exit Multiple Method
Perpetuity Growth Rate
Perpetuity Growth Rate
Exit Multiple
Equity Value Sensitiv ity - Perpetuity Method
Exit Multiple
WA
CC
WA
CC
WA
CC
WA
CC
Share Price Sensitiv ity - Perpetuity Method
21 | P a g e
Valuation
Method 1 – Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
Bear Case
Table 10 - Income Statement Projection
2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Revenues 17345 19081 20963 23046 25133 27036 28775 30186 31671 33233
% Growth 8.1% 10.0% 9.9% 9.9% 9.1% 7.6% 6.4% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9%
EBITDA 4618 5150 5663 6214 6751 7232 7703 8061 8436 8829
% Margin 26.6% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 26.9% 26.7% 26.8% 26.7% 26.6% 26.6%
EBIT 2968 3252 3456 3693 4130 4571 5005 5234 5474 5726
% Margin 17.1% 17.0% 16.5% 16.0% 16.4% 16.9% 17.4% 17.3% 17.3% 17.2%
- Tax (689) (755) (802) (857) (959) (1061) (1162) (1215) (1271) (1329)
% EBIT 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2%
EBIAT 2279 2497 2653 2835 3172 3510 3844 4019 4204 4397
+ Depreciation 1650 1898 2207 2522 2621 2662 2698 2826 2961 3103
- Capital Expenditure (937) (1145) (1132) (1106) (1056) (1136) (1209) (1268) (1330) (1396)
- Increase in Net Working Capital 1844 (436) (468) (517) (517) (471) (432) (349) (367) (386)
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 4837 2815 3260 3734 4220 4565 4901 5229 5468 5718
Discount Factor 0.921 0.847 0.780 0.718 0.661 0.608 0.560 0.515 0.474 0.437
Present Value of Free Cash Flow 4453 2385 2543 2681 2789 2777 2744 2695 2594 2497
Table 11 - Share Price Calculation
Terminal Value - Perpetuity Method Terminal Value - Exit Multiple Method
2023E FCF 5718 2023E EBITDA 8829
Perpetuity Growth Rate 3.0% Exit Multiple 13.9x
Terminal Value 104492 Terminal Value 122313
Discount Factor 0.437 Discount Factor 0.437
PV of Terminal Value 45638 PV of Terminal Value 53421
Implied Share Price - Perpetuity Method Implied Share Price - Exit Multiple Method
Sum of Discounted FCF 28159 Sum of Discounted FCF 28159
PV of Terminal Value 45638 PV of Terminal Value 53421
Enterprise Value 2013 73797 Enterprise Value 2013 81580
- Net Debt (4123) - Net Debt (4123)
+ Cash 9025 + Cash 9025
Implied Equity Value 78699 Implied Equity Value 86482
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1313 Diluted Shares Outstanding 1313
Share Price 60 Share Price 66
Table 12 - Sensitiv ity Analysis
78699 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 86482.3 13.8x 13.8x 13.9x 13.9x 13.9x
7.6% 84041 89133 95324 103011 112812 7.6% 93022 93043 93065 93086 93107
8.1% 77224 81312 86196 92134 99507 8.1% 89654 89675 89695 89715 89735
8.6% 71446 74777 78699 83385 89081 8.6% 86444 86463 86482 86502 86521
9.1% 66489 69237 72433 76197 80692 9.1% 83382 83401 83419 83437 83456
9.6% 62191 64483 67121 70188 73800 9.6% 80462 80480 80497 80515 80532
59.9 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 65.9 13.8x 13.8x 13.9x 13.9x 13.9x
7.6% 64.0 67.9 72.6 78.5 85.9 7.6% 70.8 70.9 70.9 70.9 70.9
8.1% 58.8 61.9 65.6 70.2 75.8 8.1% 68.3 68.3 68.3 68.3 68.3
8.6% 54.4 57.0 59.9 63.5 67.8 8.6% 65.8 65.9 65.9 65.9 65.9
9.1% 50.6 52.7 55.2 58.0 61.5 9.1% 63.5 63.5 63.5 63.5 63.6
9.6% 47.4 49.1 51.1 53.5 56.2 9.6% 61.3 61.3 61.3 61.3 61.3
Equity Value Sensitiv ity - Exit Multiple Method
Share Price Sensitiv ity - Exit Multiple Method
Perpetuity Growth Rate
Perpetuity Growth Rate
Exit Multiple
Equity Value Sensitiv ity - Perpetuity Method
Exit Multiple
WA
CC
WA
CC
WA
CC
WA
CC
Share Price Sensitiv ity - Perpetuity Method
22 | P a g e
Valuation
Method 1 – Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
Bull Case
Table 13 - Income Statement Projection
2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Revenues 18859 22987 28019 34317 41450 48833 56205 62499 69531 77390
% Growth 17.5% 21.9% 21.9% 22.5% 20.8% 17.8% 15.1% 11.2% 11.3% 11.3%
EBITDA 5830 7148 8641 10450 12495 14586 16617 18389 20361 22556
% Margin 30.9% 31.1% 30.8% 30.5% 30.1% 29.9% 29.6% 29.4% 29.3% 29.1%
EBIT 4214 5095 6021 7118 8653 10380 11979 13244 14652 16219
% Margin 22.3% 22.2% 21.5% 20.7% 20.9% 21.3% 21.3% 21.2% 21.1% 21.0%
- Tax (800) (968) (1143) (1352) (1643) (1971) (2275) (2515) (2782) (3080)
% EBIT 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0%
EBIAT 3414 4128 4878 5767 7010 8409 9704 10729 11870 13139
+ Depreciation 1616 2052 2619 3332 3841 4206 4639 5145 5709 6337
- Capital Expenditure (2037) (2758) (3026) (3294) (3482) (4102) (4721) (5250) (5841) (6501)
- Increase in Net Working Capital 1438 (1034) (1253) (1564) (1771) (1831) (1824) (1560) (1743) (1947)
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 4431 2387 3218 4240 5599 6682 7797 9064 9995 11028
Discount Factor 0.921 0.847 0.780 0.718 0.661 0.608 0.560 0.515 0.474 0.437
Present Value of Free Cash Flow 4078 2023 2510 3044 3700 4065 4366 4672 4742 4817
Table 14 - Share Price Calculation
Terminal Value - Perpetuity Method Terminal Value - Exit Multiple Method
2023E FCF 11028 2023E EBITDA 22556
Perpetuity Growth Rate 3.0% Exit Multiple 13.9x
Terminal Value 201524 Terminal Value 312470
Discount Factor 0.437 Discount Factor 0.437
PV of Terminal Value 88017 PV of Terminal Value 136474
Implied Share Price - Perpetuity Method Implied Share Price - Exit Multiple Method
Sum of Discounted FCF 38017 Sum of Discounted FCF 38017
PV of Terminal Value 88017 PV of Terminal Value 136474
Enterprise Value 2013 126035 Enterprise Value 2013 174491
- Net Debt (4123) - Net Debt (4123)
+ Cash 9025 + Cash 9025
Implied Equity Value 130937 Implied Equity Value 179393
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1313 Diluted Shares Outstanding 1313
Share Price 100 Share Price 137
Table 15 - Sensitiv ity Analysis
130937 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 179393.1 13.8x 13.8x 13.9x 13.9x 13.9x
7.6% 140724 150545 162484 177309 196212 7.6% 194705 194759 194813 194867 194921
8.1% 127837 135722 145141 156593 170812 8.1% 186810 186862 186913 186965 187017
8.6% 116948 123373 130937 139973 150959 8.6% 179295 179344 179393 179442 179492
9.1% 107636 112936 119100 126358 135029 9.1% 172138 172185 172232 172279 172326
9.6% 99588 104009 109096 115011 121977 9.6% 165321 165366 165411 165456 165501
99.7 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 136.6 13.8x 13.8x 13.9x 13.9x 13.9x
7.6% 107.2 114.7 123.8 135.0 149.4 7.6% 148.3 148.3 148.4 148.4 148.5
8.1% 97.4 103.4 110.5 119.3 130.1 8.1% 142.3 142.3 142.4 142.4 142.4
8.6% 89.1 94.0 99.7 106.6 115.0 8.6% 136.6 136.6 136.6 136.7 136.7
9.1% 82.0 86.0 90.7 96.2 102.8 9.1% 131.1 131.1 131.2 131.2 131.2
9.6% 75.8 79.2 83.1 87.6 92.9 9.6% 125.9 125.9 126.0 126.0 126.0
Equity Value Sensitiv ity - Exit Multiple Method
Share Price Sensitiv ity - Exit Multiple Method
Perpetuity Growth Rate
Perpetuity Growth Rate
Exit Multiple
Equity Value Sensitiv ity - Perpetuity Method
Exit Multiple
WA
CC
WA
CC
WA
CC
WA
CC
Share Price Sensitiv ity - Perpetuity Method
23 | P a g e
Valuation
Method 2 – Comparable Analysis
Historical Trading Multiples
Comparable Analysis
Base Case
Bear Case
Bull Case
We have used 3 trading
multiples: EV/Revenue,
EV/EBITDA and EV/EBIT to
compute eBay enterprise
value.
Due to the lack of close
comparable companies, the
pricing multiples are
calculated from historical
values of eBay itself instead of
other comparable companies.
Pricing multiples are selected
using 30% mean and 70%
median of past trading
multiples to dampen extreme
points.
Pricing multiples for bear and
bull cases are decreased and
increased by 10% respectively.
From each pricing multiples
and 2014 forecasted revenue,
we have computed the
implied enterprise values.
Enterprise value obtained from
Revenue, EBIT and EBITDA are
assigned weighting of 16.7%,
16.7% and 33.7% respectively.
As a result, we get a target
price of 62.0, 52.0 and 40.5 for
bull, base and bear case
respectively.
Table 16 - Valuation multiples
2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Mean Median 2014E
EV/Revenue 3.4x 3.0x 4.3x 4.1x 3.7x 3.8x 3.8x
EV/EBIT 15.3x 14.9x 21.1x 19.6x 17.7x 17.5x 17.6x
EV/EBITDA 11.2x 10.7x 14.9x 13.9x 12.7x 12.5x 12.6x
Table 17 - Base Case From Revenue From EBIT From EBITDA
2014E Revenue 2014E EBIT 2014E EBITDA
18209.9 3726.5 5371.9
EV/Revenue EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA
3.8x 17.6x 12.6x
Implied EV 68603.4 65443.3 67510.0
Shares Outstanding 1295.0 1295.0 1295.0
Implied Share Price 53.0 50.5 52.1
Weighting 16.7% 16.7% 66.7%
Weighted EV
Weighted Share Price 52.0
67347.8
Table 18 - Bear Case From Revenue From EBIT From EBITDA
2014E Revenue 2014E EBIT 2014E EBITDA
17344.8 2968.2 4618.4
EV/Revenue EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA
3.4x 15.8x 11.3x
Implied EV 58809.5 46913.9 52236.2
Shares Outstanding 1295.0 1295.0 1295.0
Implied Share Price 45.4 36.2 40.3
Weighting 16.7% 16.7% 66.7%
Weighted EV
Weighted Share Price 40.5
52444.7
Table 19 - Bull Case From Revenue From EBIT From EBITDA
2014E Revenue 2014E EBIT 2014E EBITDA
18858.8 4214.0 5829.8
EV/Revenue EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA
4.1x 19.3x 13.8x
Implied EV 78152.7 81406.3 80590.8
Shares Outstanding 1295.0 1295.0 1295.0
Implied Share Price 60.3 62.9 62.2
Weighting 16.7% 16.7% 66.7%
Weighted EV
Weighted Share Price 62.0
80320.4
24 | P a g e
Valuation
Method 3 – Sum of the Part (SOTP) Analysis
Historical EV/Revenue multiple by Sector
SOTP
Base Case
Bear Case
Bull Case
We have used EV/Revenue
multiples for each sector to
conduct the Sum of the Part
analysis.
Pricing multiples are selected using
30% mean and 70% median of past
trading multiples to dampen
extreme points.
EV/Revenues for bear and bull
cases are decreased and
increased by 10% respectively.
We calculated the implied
enterprise value for each sector for
each case by multiplying our
forecasted 2014 revenues with our
forecasted EV/Revenue multiples.
Then we summed the enterprise
values for each sector to get the
implied firm enterprise values for
each case.
As a result, we get target prices of
57.8, 50.8 and 43.7 for our bull,
base and bear case scenario.
Table 20 - Historical Trading Multiples by Sector
EV/Revenue 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A Mean Median 2014E
Marketplaces 4.2x 3.8x 5.5x 5.3x 4.7x 4.8x 4.7x
Payments 2.2x 2.1x 3.4x 3.2x 2.7x 2.7x 2.7x
Enterprise - 1.3x 1.6x 1.1x 1.4x 1.3x 1.3x
Table 21 - Base Case
Marketplaces Payments Enterprise
2014E Revenue 9087.5 7887.3 1212.1
EV/Revenue 4.7x 2.7x 1.3x
Implied EV 43064.5 21138.8 1634.6
Shares Outstanding 1295.0 1295.0 1295.0
Implied Share Price 33.3 16.3 1.3
Total EV
Total Share Price 50.8
65837.8
Table 22 - Bear Case
Marketplaces Payments Enterprise
2014E Revenue 8766.1 7383.6 1172.0
EV/Revenue 4.3x 2.4x 1.2x
Implied EV 37387.2 17809.8 1422.5
Shares Outstanding 1295.0 1295.0 1295.0
Implied Share Price 28.9 13.8 1.1
Total EV
Total Share Price 43.7
56619.6
Table 23 - Bull Case
Marketplaces Payments Enterprise
2014E Revenue 9328.6 8265.1 1242.1
EV/Revenue 5.2x 2.9x 1.5x
Implied EV 48627.5 24366.4 1842.6
Shares Outstanding 1295.0 1295.0 1295.0
Implied Share Price 37.6 18.8 1.4
Total EV
Total Share Price 57.8
74836.5
25 | P a g e
Valuation
Valuation Summary
The target prices for each method
and each case are summarised
here.
Each method is assigned a weight to
arrive at the final target price for
eBay.
The weighted bull case target price
is the upper bound of the final target
price.
The weighted bear case target price
is the lower bound.
We arrive at our final target price of
$64.0 with an upside of $79.3 and
downside of $49.0.
Table 24 - Share Price Summary
Method Bull Case Base Case Bear Case Weight
DCF - Perpetuity 99.7 78.9 59.9 16.7%
DCF - Exit Multiple 136.6 99.3 65.9 16.7%
Comparables 62.0 52.0 40.5 33.3%
SOTP 57.8 50.8 43.7 33.3%
Share Price 79.3 64.0 49.0
Table 25 - Enterprise Value Summary
Method Bull Case Base Case Bear Case Weight
DCF - Perpetuity 126035 98712 73797 16.7%
DCF - Exit Multiple 174491 125536 81580 16.7%
Comparables 80320 67348 52445 33.3%
SOTP 74837 65838 56620 33.3%
Share Price 101807 81770 62251
99.7
136.6
62.0
57.8
59.9
65.9
40.5
43.7
0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0
DCF - Perpetuity
DCF - Exit Multiple
Comparables
SOTP
Figure 25 - Implied Share Price Football
Field
126035
174491
80320
74837
73797
81580
52445
56620
0 50000 100000 150000 200000
DCF - Perpetuity
DCF - Exit Multiple
Comparables
SOTP
Figure 26 - Implied Enterprise Value
Football Field
26 | P a g e
References
Equity Research Reports
Sheridan, Chiodo, Patel, UBS [2014] Countering eBay Fears Part 2: Marketplaces
Sena, McDade, McNellis, Evercore [2014] Solid Result From Payments Business
Schachter, White, Merrick, Macquarie [2014] eBay 1Q’14: An Uneasy Feeling
Landell-Mills, Indigo [2014] Overview of Q1 2014 - Strong execution & mobile focus
Luria, Wedbush [2014] eBay A Peak into the Shopping Cart; Maintain OUTPERFORM
Other publications
Marketline [2014] eBay, Inc. – Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments
Canadean [2014] eBay Inc. – Company Profile, SWOT & Financial Report
Wright Investors’ Service [2014] Service Research Report: eBay Incorporated
Deloitte [2014] Global Powers of Retailing – retailing beyond
Deloitte [2014] The Omnichannal Opportunity – unlocking the power of the connected customers
PWC [2012] Introducing the PwC Global Consumer Index (GCI)
KPMG [2013] 2013 Retail Industry Outlook Survey
Databases
Bloomberg Terminal
Thomson One – thomsonone.com
Google Finance – www.google.com/finance
Yahoo Finance – www.finance.yahoo.com
Reuters – www.reuters.com
Statista – www.statista.com
US Census – www.census.gov
27 | P a g e
Appendix
Operational Model – Bear Case
Source: Bloomberg, eBay Annual Report, own construction
Table 26 - Operational Model
2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Revenue 11652 14072 16047 17345 19081 20963 23046 25133 27036 28775 30186 31671 33233
% growth 27.3% 20.8% 14.0% 8.1% 10.0% 9.9% 9.9% 9.1% 7.6% 6.4% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9%
Marketplaces 6642 7398 8284 8766 9355 9917 10452 10985 11381 11790 12215 12654 13110
% growth 16.1% 11.4% 12.0% 5.8% 6.7% 6.0% 5.4% 5.1% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6%
Payments 4412 5574 6628 7384 8442 9658 11107 12573 14006 15267 16183 17154 18183
% growth 28.4% 26.3% 18.9% 11.4% 14.3% 14.4% 15.0% 13.2% 11.4% 9.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Enterprise 590 1083 1112 1172 1260 1366 1464 1552 1626 1695 1766 1840 1917
% growth - 83.6% 2.7% 5.4% 7.5% 8.4% 7.2% 6.0% 4.8% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2%
Corporate 8 39 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55
% growth - 387.5% 41.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elimination 0 (22) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32)
% growth - - 45.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cost of Revenue (3461) (4216) (5036) (5615) (6107) (6706) (7383) (8077) (8719) (9274) (9749) (10250) (10778)
% sales 29.7% 30.0% 31.4% 32.4% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.1% 32.3% 32.2% 32.3% 32.4% 32.4%
Gross Profit 8191 9856 11011 11730 12973 14258 15663 17056 18317 19501 20437 21421 22455
SG&A (4878) (5768) (6240) (7111) (7823) (8595) (9449) (10305) (11085) (11798) (12376) (12985) (13626)
% sales 41.9% 41.0% 38.9% 41.0% 41.0% 41.0% 41.0% 41.0% 41.0% 41.0% 41.0% 41.0% 41.0%
EBITDA 3313 4088 4771 4618 5150 5663 6214 6751 7232 7703 8061 8436 8829
% sales 28.4% 29.1% 29.7% 26.6% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 26.9% 26.7% 26.8% 26.7% 26.6% 26.6%
Marketplaces 2361 2716 3178 3049 3343 3570 3810 3984 4097 4244 4397 4556 4720
% segment sales 35.5% 36.7% 38.4% 34.8% 35.7% 36.0% 36.5% 36.3% 36.0% 36.0% 36.0% 36.0% 36.0%
Payments 878 1254 1506 1495 1725 1999 2299 2659 3025 3298 3495 3705 3928
% segment sales 19.9% 22.5% 22.7% 20.3% 20.4% 20.7% 20.7% 21.2% 21.6% 21.6% 21.6% 21.6% 21.6%
Enterprise 74 118 86 74 83 93 105 108 110 161 168 175 182
% segment sales 12.6% 10.9% 7.8% 6.3% 6.6% 6.8% 7.2% 6.9% 6.8% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5%
Depreciation and amortization (940) (1200) (1400) (1650) (1898) (2207) (2522) (2621) (2662) (2698) (2826) (2961) (3103)
% sales 8.1% 8.5% 8.7% 9.5% 9.9% 10.5% 10.9% 10.4% 9.8% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 9.3%
Marketplaces (670) (797) (933) (1072) (1150) (1354) (1427) (1384) (1434) (1362) (1411) (1462) (1514)
% segment sales 10.1% 10.8% 11.3% 12.2% 12.3% 13.7% 13.7% 12.6% 12.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6%
Payments (249) (368) (442) (542) (709) (811) (1050) (1188) (1177) (1282) (1359) (1441) (1527)
% segment sales 5.6% 6.6% 6.7% 7.3% 8.4% 8.4% 9.5% 9.5% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4%
Enterprise (21) (35) (25) (36) (39) (42) (45) (48) (51) (54) (56) (59) (61)
% segment sales 3.6% 3.2% 2.3% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%
EBIT (adjusted) 2373 2888 3371 2968 3252 3456 3693 4130 4571 5005 5234 5474 5726
% sales 20.4% 20.5% 21.0% 17.1% 17.0% 16.5% 16.0% 16.4% 16.9% 17.4% 17.3% 17.3% 17.2%
Marketplaces 1691 1919 2246 1977 2192 2216 2383 2600 2663 2883 2986 3094 3205
% segment sales 25.5% 25.9% 27.1% 22.6% 23.4% 22.4% 22.8% 23.7% 23.4% 24.5% 24.5% 24.5% 24.5%
Payments 629 886 1064 953 1016 1188 1250 1471 1849 2015 2136 2264 2400
% segment sales 14.2% 15.9% 16.1% 12.9% 12.0% 12.3% 11.3% 11.7% 13.2% 13.2% 13.2% 13.2% 13.2%
Enterprise 53 83 61 38 44 51 60 59 59 107 112 116 121
% segment sales 9.0% 7.7% 5.5% 3.2% 3.5% 3.8% 4.1% 3.8% 3.6% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3%
Net Interest 1537 196 95 83 91 97 103 116 128 140 147 153 160
% EBIT 64.8% 6.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%
EBT 3910 3084 3466 3051 3343 3552 3796 4246 4699 5146 5381 5628 5887
% sales 33.6% 21.9% 21.6% 17.6% 17.5% 16.9% 16.5% 16.9% 17.4% 17.9% 17.8% 17.8% 17.7%
Tax Expense (681) (475) (610) (689) (755) (802) (857) (959) (1061) (1162) (1215) (1271) (1329)
% EBIT 28.7% 16.4% 18.1% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2%
Net Income 3229 2609 2856 2362 2588 2750 2939 3287 3638 3984 4166 4357 4558
% sales 27.7% 18.5% 17.8% 13.6% 13.6% 13.1% 12.8% 13.1% 13.5% 13.8% 13.8% 13.8% 13.7%
28 | P a g e
Appendix
Operational Model – Bull Case
Source: Bloomberg, eBay Annual Report, own construction
Table 27 - Operational Model
2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Revenue 11652 14072 16047 18859 22987 28019 34317 41450 48833 56205 62499 69531 77390
% growth 27.3% 20.8% 14.0% 17.5% 21.9% 21.9% 22.5% 20.8% 17.8% 15.1% 11.2% 11.3% 11.3%
Marketplaces 6642 7398 8284 9329 10687 12076 13489 14980 16148 17408 18765 20229 21807
% growth 16.1% 11.4% 12.0% 12.6% 14.6% 13.0% 11.7% 11.1% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8%
Payments 4412 5574 6628 8265 10833 14213 18832 24218 30200 36089 40781 46082 52073
% growth 28.4% 26.3% 18.9% 24.7% 31.1% 31.2% 32.5% 28.6% 24.7% 19.5% 13.0% 13.0% 13.0%
Enterprise 590 1083 1112 1242 1444 1707 1973 2229 2461 2685 2930 3196 3487
% growth - 83.6% 2.7% 11.7% 16.3% 18.2% 15.6% 13.0% 10.4% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1%
Corporate 8 39 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55
% growth - 387.5% 41.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elimination 0 (22) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32) (32)
% growth - - 45.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cost of Revenue (3461) (4216) (5036) (5674) (6874) (8451) (10484) (12790) (15201) (17668) (19735) (22053) (24652)
% sales 29.7% 30.0% 31.4% 30.1% 29.9% 30.2% 30.5% 30.9% 31.1% 31.4% 31.6% 31.7% 31.9%
Gross Profit 8191 9856 11011 13185 16112 19568 23834 28660 33631 38537 42763 47478 52738
SG&A (4878) (5768) (6240) (7355) (8965) (10927) (13384) (16166) (19045) (21920) (24375) (27117) (30182)
% sales 41.9% 41.0% 38.9% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0%
EBITDA 3313 4088 4771 5830 7148 8641 10450 12495 14586 16617 18389 20361 22556
% sales 28.4% 29.1% 29.7% 30.9% 31.1% 30.8% 30.5% 30.1% 29.9% 29.6% 29.4% 29.3% 29.1%
Marketplaces 2361 2716 3178 3786 4455 5072 5736 6339 6782 7311 7881 8496 9159
% segment sales 35.5% 36.7% 38.4% 40.6% 41.7% 42.0% 42.5% 42.3% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0% 42.0%
Payments 878 1254 1506 1953 2582 3432 4548 5976 7610 9094 10277 11613 13122
% segment sales 19.9% 22.5% 22.7% 23.6% 23.8% 24.2% 24.2% 24.7% 25.2% 25.2% 25.2% 25.2% 25.2%
Enterprise 74 118 86 91 111 136 166 180 194 211 231 252 275
% segment sales 12.6% 10.9% 7.8% 7.4% 7.7% 8.0% 8.4% 8.1% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9%
Depreciation and amortization (940) (1200) (1400) (1616) (2052) (2619) (3332) (3841) (4206) (4639) (5145) (5709) (6337)
% sales 8.1% 8.5% 8.7% 8.6% 8.9% 9.3% 9.7% 9.3% 8.6% 8.3% 8.2% 8.2% 8.2%
Marketplaces (670) (797) (933) (1033) (1189) (1491) (1666) (1708) (1841) (1819) (1961) (2114) (2279)
% segment sales 10.1% 10.8% 11.3% 11.1% 11.1% 12.4% 12.4% 11.4% 11.4% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5%
Payments (249) (368) (442) (549) (823) (1080) (1610) (2071) (2295) (2743) (3099) (3502) (3958)
% segment sales 5.6% 6.6% 6.7% 6.6% 7.6% 7.6% 8.6% 8.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6%
Enterprise (21) (35) (25) (34) (40) (48) (55) (63) (70) (77) (84) (92) (101)
% segment sales 3.6% 3.2% 2.3% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
EBIT (adjusted) 2373 2888 3371 4214 5095 6021 7118 8653 10380 11979 13244 14652 16219
% sales 20.4% 20.5% 21.0% 22.3% 22.2% 21.5% 20.7% 20.9% 21.3% 21.3% 21.2% 21.1% 21.0%
Marketplaces 1691 1919 2246 2753 3266 3581 4070 4631 4941 5492 5920 6382 6880
% segment sales 25.5% 25.9% 27.1% 29.5% 30.6% 29.7% 30.2% 30.9% 30.6% 31.6% 31.6% 31.6% 31.6%
Payments 629 886 1064 1404 1759 2352 2938 3905 5315 6352 7177 8110 9165
% segment sales 14.2% 15.9% 16.1% 17.0% 16.2% 16.6% 15.6% 16.1% 17.6% 17.6% 17.6% 17.6% 17.6%
Enterprise 53 83 61 57 71 88 110 117 124 135 146 159 174
% segment sales 9.0% 7.7% 5.5% 4.6% 4.9% 5.2% 5.6% 5.3% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Net Interest 1537 196 95 118 143 169 199 242 291 335 371 410 454
% EBIT 64.8% 6.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%
EBT 3910 3084 3466 4332 5238 6190 7318 8896 10671 12314 13615 15062 16673
% sales 33.6% 21.9% 21.6% 23.0% 22.8% 22.1% 21.3% 21.5% 21.9% 21.9% 21.8% 21.7% 21.5%
Tax Expense (681) (475) (610) (800) (968) (1143) (1352) (1643) (1971) (2275) (2515) (2782) (3080)
% EBIT 28.7% 16.4% 18.1% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0% 19.0%
Net Income 3229 2609 2856 3532 4270 5046 5966 7252 8700 10039 11100 12280 13593
% sales 27.7% 18.5% 17.8% 18.7% 18.6% 18.0% 17.4% 17.5% 17.8% 17.9% 17.8% 17.7% 17.6%
29 | P a g e
Appendix
Income Statement
Source: Bloomberg, eBay Annual Report, own construction
Table 28 - Income Statement
$M USD 12 Months Ending 2013-12-31 2010 2011 2012 2013
Revenues 9156 11652 14072 16047
By business segments 9156 11652 14072 16047
Marketplaces 5721 6642 7398 8284
Net transaction revenues 4800 5431 6078 6795
Advertising & other revenues 921 1211 1320 1489
Payments 3435 4412 5574 6628
Net transaction revenues 3261 4123 5146 6096
Advertising & other revenues 174 289 428 532
Enterprise 0 590 1083 1112
Net transaction revenues 0 460 850 898
Advertising & other revenues 0 130 233 214
Corporate and other 8 39 55
Eliminations and other 0 (22) (32)
By geographic segments 9156 11652 14072 16047
U.S 4214 5484 6778 7712
International 4942 6168 7294 8335
Cost of revenue (2564) (3461) (4216) (5036)
Marketplaces (1071) (1210) (1273) (1520)
Payments (1493) (1866) (2209) (2675)
Enterprise 0 (374) (696) (821)
Corporate and other 0 (11) (38) (20)
Gross profit 6592 8191 9856 11011
Operating expenses (4538) (5818) (6968) (7640)
Sales and marketing (1947) (2435) (2913) (3060)
Product development (908) (1235) (1573) (1768)
Gerneral and administrative (1101) (1364) (1567) (1703)
Prov ision for transaction and loan losses (392) (517) (580) (791)
Amortization of acquired intangible assets (190) (267) (335) (318)
EBIT 2054 2373 2888 3371
Marketplaces 2305 2631 2943 3351
Payments 722 978 1359 1588
Enterprise 0 83 128 91
Corporate and other (973) (1319) (1542) (1659)
Interest and other, net 44 1537 196 95
EBT 2098 3910 3084 3466
Provision for income taxes (297) (681) (475) (610)
Net income 1801 3229 2609 2856
30 | P a g e
Appendix
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow Statement
Table 29 - Balance Sheet
$M USD 12 Months Ending 2013-12-31 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A
Assets
Cash & equivalents 5577.0 4691.1 6817.1 4494.1
Short term investments 1045.0 1238.3 2591.0 4531.0
Accounts & notes receivables 454.0 681.6 2982.0 899.0
Inventories 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other current assets 3988.0 6050.5 9008.0 13359.0
Total currrent assets 11064.0 12661.5 21398.1 23283.1
LT investments & LT receivables 2492.0 2452.8 3044.0 4971.0
Net fixed assets 1523.0 1986.2 2491.0 2760.0
Gross fixed assets 4876.8 5957.0 7120.0
Accumulated depreciation 2890.6 3466.0 4360.0
Other LT assets 6923.0 10219.8 10141.0 10474.0
Total LT assets 10938.0 14658.8 15676.0 18205.0
Total assets 22002.0 27320.3 37074.1 41488.1
Liability and equity
Accounts payable 185.0 283.1 301.0 309.0
Short-term borrowings 300.0 564.6 413.0 6.0
Other short term liabilities 4031.0 5886.5 10210.0 12324.0
Total current liabilities 4516.0 6734.2 10924.0 12639.0
LT borrowings 1494.0 1525.0 4106.0 4117.0
Other LT liabilities 690.0 1131.1 1179.0 1085.0
Total LT liabilities 2184.0 2656.1 5285.0 5202.0
Total liabilities 6700.0 9390.3 16209.0 17841.0
Share capital & APIC 10482.0 11146.4 12064.0 13033.0
Retained earnings & other equity 4820.0 6783.5 8801.0 10614.0
Total equity 15302.0 17929.9 20865.0 23647.0
Total liabilities & equity 22002.0 27320.2 37074.0 41488.0
Table 30 - Cash Flow Statement
$M USD 12 Months Ending 2013-12-31 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A
Cash from operating activities 2745.8 3273.4 3838.0 4995.0
% Revenues 30% 28% 27% 31%
Net income 1801.0 3229.0 2609.0 2856.0
Depreciation & amortization 762.5 940.0 1200.0 1400.0
% Revenues 8% 8% 9% 9%
Other non-cash adjustment 1155.4 (593.8) 689.0 985.0
Change in non-cash capital (973.1) (301.8) (660.0) (246.0)
Cash from investing activities (2282.5) (3306.9) (3763.0) (6012.0)
Capital expenditures (723.9) (963.5) (1257.0) (1250.0)
Other investing activ ities (1558.6) (2343.4) (2506.0) (4762.0)
Cash from financing activities 1114.3 (853.2) 2051.0 (1306.0)
Change in short-term borrowing 300.0 250.0 (550.0) (400.0)
Increase in long-term borrowing 1488.7 0.0 2976.0 0.0
Decrease in long term borrowing 0.0 (199.3) 0.0 0.0
Increase in capital stocks 277.4 321.9 613.0 638.0
Decrease in capital stocks (711.1) (1064.0) (898.0) (1343.0)
Other financing activ ities (240.7) (161.8) (90.0) (201.0)
Net changes in cash 1577.6 (886.7) 2126.0 (2323.0)