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Equity SNAPSHOT Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT

FROM EQUITY RESEARCH

Bank Tabungan Negara: A model of strength (BBTN IJ. IDR 2,640. BUY. TP IDR 3,600)

We continue to like BBTN for its resilient business model for the

housing-related segment. Given a higher FLPP allocation in the 2019 proposed state budget, BBTN’s growth will driven mainly by

subsidized mortgages in our view. Additionally, BBTN will obtain borrowings from SMF for the 25% portion in the FLPP scheme with

a 4.45% rate, an indication of the bank’s funding flexibility in a higher interest rates environment. Further ahead, we expect BBTN

to conduct a rights issue in 1Q20 at the soonest as the plan is not

included in the government’s 2019 budget. BUY with a new GGM-derived TP of IDR3,600 (implying 1.4x 2019F P/BV).

To see the full version of this report, please click here

MARKET NEWS

Macroeconomy

Government: To provide tax discount on bonds coupon payments

Sector Automotive: Motorcycle sales increase by 9.8% yoy to 4.2mn

units in 8M18 Healthcare: BPJS Kesehatan receives IDR4.9tn of funds to cover

the deficit

Amazon plans to invest IDR 14tn in Indonesia Corporate

Indofood: INDF increases ASP of wheat flour by around 10% since May 2018

Semen Baturaja: Plans to develop cement-based downstream

products Summarecon Agung (SMRA) to launch 4 new projects

Telkom’s mobile TV has good traction

KEY INDEX

Close

Chg Ytd Vol

(%) (%) (US$ m)

Asean - 5

Indonesia 5,882 (1.3) (7.4) 312

Thailand 1,749 (0.4) (0.2) 1,357

Philippines 7,434 0.7 (13.1) 72

Malaysia 1,800 (0.6) 0.2 875

Singapore 3,219 0.0 (5.4) 575

Regional

China 2,797 2.5 (15.4) 21,431

Hong Kong 27,499 (1.6) (8.1) 8,807

Japan 23,870 0.8 4.9 21,893

Korea 2,339 0.7 (5.2) 5,782

Taiwan 10,972 1.3 3.1 5,085

India 36,305 (1.5) 6.6 520

NASDAQ 7,993 0.1 15.8 110,030

Dow Jones 26,562 (0.7) 7.5 10,530

CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE

Rate

w-w m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14,866 0.1 (1.5) (9.7)

BI7DRRR % 5.50 0.3 0.3 1.3

10y Gov Indo bond 8.19 (0.2) 0.3 1.9

HARD COMMODITY

Unit Price

d-d m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Coal US$/ton 114 0.3 (3.5) 12.8

Gold US$/toz 1,199 0.0 (0.6) (8.0)

Nickel US$/mt.ton 12,864 (2.3) (3.6) 1.2

Tin US$/mt.ton 18,989 (0.4) (0.3) (5.5)

SOFT COMMODITY

Unit Price

d-d m-m ytd

(%) (%) (%)

Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,142 (1.5) (3.2) 12.8

Corn US$/mt.ton 122 3.3 1.6 (2.2)

Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 72 0.1 5.0 19.5

Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 81 3.3 7.3 21.7

Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,122 (0.7) (3.6) (11.2)

Rubber USd/kg 133 - (1.7) (9.3)

Pulp US$/tonne 1,205 N/A 2.8 20.5

Coffee US$/60kgbag 76 0.4 (1.3) (10.6)

Sugar US$/MT 318 (4.0) 2.3 (19.5)

Wheat US$/ton 143 1.0 (1.8) 9.3

Soy Oil US$/lb 28 0.6 0.4 (14.6)

Soy Bean US$/by 841 (0.7) (0.1) (11.6)

Source: Bloomberg

http://dmia.danareksaonline.com/Upload/20180925%20BBTN.pdf

www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1

Equity Research Company Update

Tuesday, 25 September 2018

Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ) BUY

Maintain A model of strength

We continue to like BBTN for its resilient business model for the housing-related segment. Given a higher FLPP allocation in the 2019 proposed state budget, BBTN’s growth will driven mainly by subsidized mortgages in our view. Additionally, BBTN will obtain borrowings from SMF for the 25% portion in the FLPP scheme with a 4.45% rate, an indication of the bank’s funding flexibility in a higher interest rates environment. Further ahead, we expect BBTN to conduct a rights issue in 1Q20 at the soonest as the plan is not included in the government’s 2019 budget. BUY with a new GGM-derived TP of IDR3,600 (implying 1.4x 2019F P/BV).

2019: a higher budget for FLPP. Based on the 2019 proposed state budget, the government has allocated a total of IDR8.7tn, comprising IDR5.2tn for the FLPP scheme and IDR3.5tn for interest rate subsidies (SSB). Despite possible budget cuts, we believe BBTN can grow its business on the back of its extensive knowledge and long track record in the housing market, especially in the low income segment (ticket size IDR300mn). Subsidized mortgages remain the bank’s core business. BBTN’s management reaffirmed its commitment toward providing subsidized mortgages under the FLPP and interest rate subsidy schemes. The FLPP funding scheme is likely to maintain its 75:25 ratio between the government and SMF. Assuming 0.5% funding costs for the government’s portion and SMF’s portion with an agreed rate of 4.45%, then the FLPP’s blended CoF will only be at 1.5%. As for the SSB scheme, the government will continue to use the 12-months SBI (current rate: 6.46%) as its reference rate for interest rate subsidies. As such, with more flexibility in the government’s schemes coupled with the affordable funding provided by SMF, we expect 17.0% growth in subsidized mortgages in 2019F.

Capital injection plans: 1Q20 at the soonest. Given the future implementation of PSAK 71 on January 1st 2020, BBTN is currently assessing a rights issue plan with proceeds range of IDR3-5tn. We expect this should take place in 1Q20 at the soonest because the plan is not included in the government’s 2019 proposed budget. As of June 2018 CAR stood at 17.4%. Moreover, every IDR1tn of additional capital will elevate its CAR by 0.6% from our base case of 16.5% as of Dec 2020 assuming all else the same.

BUY: new TP of IDR3,600. Maintain BUY with a higher TP of IDR3,600 as we roll over our valuation to 2019 assuming 11.3% CoE, 14.5% sustainable ROAE and 3% long-term growth. BBTN remains as one of our top picks in the sector.

Last price (IDR) 2,640

Target Price (IDR) 3,600

Upside/Downside +36.4%

Previous Target Price (IDR) 3,500

Stock Statistics

Sector Banking

Bloomberg Ticker BBTN IJ

No of Shrs (mn) 10,590

Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 27,958/1,881

Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 93.0/6.3

Major shareholders (%)

Government of Indonesia 60.0

Estimated free float 40.0

EPS Consensus (IDR)

2018F 2019F 2020F

Danareksa 329.7 358.3 426.0

Consensus 321.6 365.0 409.0

Danareksa/Cons 2.5 (1.8) 4.2

BBTN relative to JCI Index

Source : Bloomberg

Eka Savitri

(62-21) 2955 5888 ext 3506

[email protected]

Key Financials

Year to 31 Dec 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F

PPOP (IDRbn) 4,060 4,776 5,421 5,817 6,891

Net profit (IDRbn) 2,619 3,027 3,490 3,794 4,510

EPS (IDR) 247.4 285.9 329.7 358.3 426.0

EPS growth (%) 41.5 15.6 15.3 8.7 18.9

BVPS (IDR) 1,806.9 2,046.1 2,309.9 2,603.7 2,953.0

PER (x) 10.7 9.2 8.0 7.4 6.2

PBV (x) 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9

Dividend yield (%) 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.9

ROAE (%) 15.9 14.8 15.1 14.6 15.3

Source : BBTN, Danareksa Estimates



MACROECONOMY

Government: To provide tax discount on bonds coupon payments Ministry of finance is studying the possibility to cut tax on government bonds coupon that are issued on shore.

Government expects that the tax cut could attract more investors. The detail has not been disclosed, however corresponding to bond tax cut plan two years ago, government planned to reduce the tax to 0%. Currently the bond

coupon tax stands at 15%. (Kontan)

SECTOR

Automotive: Motorcycle sales increase by 9.8% yoy to 4.2mn units in 8M18 Motorcycle sales volume jumped 9.8% yoy to 4.2mn units in 8M18 thanks to stable commodity price and economic

condition. Honda motorcycle, the largest market share managed to increase its sales volume by 10.7% yoy, followed by Yamaha (+7.9% yoy) and Kawasaki (+5.1% yoy). AISI expects motorcycle sales volume to increase by 2 – 3%

yoy to 6.0 – 6.1mn units in 2018. (Bisnis Indonesia)

Comment: The 8M18 motorcycle sales volume figures were within our expectation as it accounted 67.9% of our forecast for 2018. Healthcare: BPJS Kesehatan receives IDR4.9tn of funds to cover the deficit The Indonesia National Health Insurance (BPJS Kesehatan) has received IDR4.9tn fund from the government, to

cover the deficit and payment to healthcare facilities. Nonetheless, BPJS Kesehatan estimates to see continued

deficit of approximately IDR16tn by end of 2018. Based on the PMK No 113/2018 regarding the procedure of the provision, disbursement and accountability of the reserved fund used by BPJS Kesehatan, the Minister of Finance

has been given the authority to take local government tax to settle the deficit in BPJS Kesehatan. (Investor Daily)

Amazon plans to invest IDR 14tn in Indonesia

Amazon plans Rp14 tn investment into Indonesia, to be spread over a 10-year period. It will see the introduction of the firm's cloud computing unit, Amazon Web Services (AWS). The Indonesian market is still greenfield area for IT,

ICT, cloud and digital services. Cloud computing spending was US$160 mn in 2012 according to Statista to hit US$1.3 billion this year. Amazon follows Alibaba move that recently built a major cloud service provider earlier this

year. Amazon fulfilment centre in Singapore for its Prime Now fast delivery service is the firm's largest in the world,

occupying some 100,000 sq ft. (Strait Times) Comment: This should accelerate the built of digital ecosystem in the country and promote awareness of digital services and e-commerce. We understand it will improve fulfillment and logistical functionalities that the country is lacking. Telco space incl. Telkom will benefit in their effort to expand their digital services. (Niko) CORPORATE

Indofood: INDF increases ASP of wheat flour by around 10% since May 2018 Indofood (INDF) has increased the ASP of its wheat flour products by a minimum of 10% since May 2018, following

rupiah depreciation and higher wheat prices. Following drought season in Australia and several countries, the wheat prices continue its uptrend. However, the management stated that higher wheat flour will have minimum impact on

the production cost of instant noodle. (Bisnis Indonesia)

Comment: Higher wheat flour prices will sustain INDF’s margin this year. Maintain our BUY recommendation with TP IDR8,000 (Natalia)

Semen Baturaja: Plans to develop cement-based downstream products Semen Baturaja (SMBR) plans to develop downstream products of cement, such as: production of mortar, precast,

light bricks, and fiber cement board. The company plans to become a provider of cement-based building materials

in the future. SMBR booked sales volume of 1.3mn tons in 8M18, grew by 40.9%yoy from 0.9mn tons in 8M17. (Bisnis Indonesia)

MARKET NEWS



Summarecon Agung (SMRA) to launch 4 new projects In an effort to achieve its FY18 marketing sales of Rp4.0tn, SMRA is planning to launch 4 new projects in 2H18.

One of the projects will be Summarecon Makassar, in which they plan to launch 200-300 units of residential clusters

with price tag of ~Rp1.0bn/unit. The remaining projects will be mostly residentials in Karawang, Serpong and Bekasi. As of 8M18, SMRA has booked marketing sales of Rp1.9tn (48% of FY18 target). (Kontan)

Telkom’s mobile TV has good traction

MetraNet of Telkom collaborates with PT Oona Media Indonesia a subsidiary of PT NFC Indonesia Tbk (NFCX) to

make mobile television (TV) application under the name Oona TV. This application will be developed together with Metranet for the next 3 years (25% investment portion by Oona Media /75% by Metranet End of 2018). Oona

targets 5 mn customers from the TV business applying the advertising video on demand (AVOD) business model. Oona Media acts as the developer of the mobile TV platform, while Metranet is to support the telco infrastructure,

channel distribution, and market development. Metranet will be able to record revenues in the range of Rp1 tn or grow 44% from last year with projected 5% net margin. (Kontan)

Comment: Mobile TV content has future in Indonesia, and Telkom positions early in this space. Although revenue contribution is minimal, we like the fact that a digital service is profitable from early on in the cycle. (Niko)


DANAREKSA VALUATION GUIDE


Rating Price (Rp) Price Mkt Cap

Target Rp Bn 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019

Danareksa Universe 3,655,154 222,974 249,643 221.7 248.2 11.9% 12.0% 16.4 14.6 17.6 16.3 2.7 2.4 17.1 17.2

Auto 288,445 19,727 21,517 396.7 432.7 4.5% 9.1% 14.6 13.4 11.0 10.0 2.2 2.0 15.3 15.4

Astra International BUY 7,125 8,600 288,445 19,727 21,517 487 532 488 522 4.5% 9.1% 14.6 13.4 11.0 10.0 2.2 2.0 15.3 15.4

Banks 1,485,612 102,688 118,744 458.6 530.3 14.6% 15.6% 14.5 12.5 2.3 2.0 16.5 16.9

BCA HOLD 23,925 22,700 589,871 26,257 29,958 1,065 1,215 1,065 1,215 12.6% 14.1% 22.5 19.7 N/A N/A 3.9 3.3 18.5 18.0

BNI BUY 7,375 10,400 137,534 15,553 18,009 834 966 834 966 14.2% 15.8% 8.8 7.6 N/A N/A 1.2 1.1 14.8 15.2

BRI BUY 3,010 4,350 371,271 32,924 38,684 267 314 267 314 13.5% 17.6% 11.3 9.6 N/A N/A 2.0 1.7 18.6 19.3

Bank Tabungan Negara BUY 2,640 3,600 27,958 3,490 3,794 330 358 330 358 15.4% 8.5% 8.0 7.4 N/A N/A 1.1 1.0 15.1 14.6

Bank Mandiri BUY 6,750 8,500 315,000 24,463 28,299 524 606 524 606 18.5% 15.6% 12.9 11.1 N/A N/A 1.7 1.6 14.1 14.8

BTPN HOLD 3,680 3,900 21,532 1,723 2,011 300 350 300 350 41.1% 16.7% 12.3 10.5 N/A N/A 1.2 1.1 10.1 10.9

BTPS BUY 1,650 2,100 12,711 906 1,174 118 152 118 152 21.6% 29.7% 14.0 10.8 N/A N/A 3.3 2.7 29.4 27.3

BPD Jatim BUY 650 830 9,735 1,259 1,350 84 90 84 90 8.6% 6.7% 7.7 7.2 N/A N/A 1.2 1.1 15.5 15.5

Cigarettes 576,266 21,454 23,492 181 199 5.0% 9.5% 26.9 24.5 18.4 17.0 6.9 6.3 26.9 26.9

Gudang Garam BUY 72,800 80,800 140,074 8,282 9,133 4,304 4,747 4,304 4,747 6.8% 10.3% 16.9 15.3 10.9 10.0 2.9 2.5 18.3 17.7

HM Sampoerna HOLD 3,750 3,800 436,193 13,173 14,359 113 123 113 123 4.0% 9.0% 33.1 30.4 24.4 22.4 12.5 12.0 38.2 40.4

Construction 94,325 11,919 14,048 160 188 12.5% 17.9% 7.9 6.7 7.0 6.37 1.2 1.0 16.1 16.5

Wijaya Karya BUY 1,375 2,200 12,334 1,588 2,108 177 235 177 235 32.0% 32.7% 7.8 5.9 3.2 2.6 0.9 0.8 11.9 14.2

Pembangunan Perumahan BUY 1,535 2,800 9,517 1,741 2,140 281 345 281 345 19.8% 22.9% 5.5 4.4 3.1 2.6 0.7 0.6 14.2 15.2

Adhi Karya BUY 1,355 2,150 4,825 753 920 212 258 212 258 46.1% 22.2% 6.4 5.2 5.4 4.8 0.7 0.6 11.6 11.6

Waskita Karya BUY 1,730 2,300 23,483 4,369 5,038 322 371 322 371 13.3% 15.3% 5.4 4.7 7.4 6.6 1.3 1.1 27.6 25.5

Waskita Beton BUY 356 500 9,385 1,302 1,524 53 62 53 62 37.5% 17.0% 6.7 5.7 5.8 5.2 1.2 1.1 17.2 18.4

Wika Beton BUY 360 600 3,138 423 493 51 59 51 59 25.5% 16.6% 7.1 6.1 4.6 4.1 1.0 0.9 14.5 15.2

Jasa Marga BUY 4,360 5,300 31,644 1,742 1,825 240 251 240 251 -20.8% 4.8% 18.2 17.3 12.8 13.2 2.0 1.8 11.1 10.8

Consumer 576,154 17,984 19,716 347 380 7.9% 9.6% 32.0 29.2 18.0 16.6 8.1 7.4 26.4 26.4

Indofood CBP BUY 8,800 9,400 102,625 3,979 4,230 341 363 341 363 4.8% 6.3% 25.8 24.3 15.2 14.2 4.7 4.3 19.3 18.6

Indofood BUY 5,975 8,000 52,463 4,493 4,968 512 566 510 548 7.8% 10.6% 11.7 10.6 5.5 5.1 1.6 1.4 13.9 14.2

Unilever HOLD 47,075 48,000 359,182 7,673 8,484 1,006 1,112 1,006 1,112 9.5% 10.6% 46.8 42.3 32.7 29.6 64.6 59.8 143.0 146.8

Kino Indonesia BUY 1,530 2,100 2,186 93 142 65 99 65 99 -16.1% 53.3% 23.6 15.4 10.0 7.5 1.0 1.0 4.5 6.6

Mayora Indah HOLD 2,670 2,790 59,698 1,747 1,892 78 85 76 85 9.5% 8.3% 34.2 31.6 18.6 17.0 7.1 6.2 22.4 21.0

Healthcare 74,021 2,806 3,083 102 121 -7.0% 18.5% 26.4 24.0 16.7 15.0 4.2 3.8 16.8 16.6

Kalbe Farma BUY 1,290 1,500 60,469 2,538 2,733 54 58 54 58 5.6% 7.7% 23.8 22.1 14.9 13.8 4.1 3.6 18.0 17.4

Kimia Farma HOLD 2,440 2,170 13,552 268 350 48 63 48 63 -18.0% 30.8% 50.6 38.7 29.7 21.1 5.0 4.5 10.2 12.2

Heavy Equipment 121,043 8,783 9,714 2,355 2,604 18.6% 10.6% 13.8 12.5 6.0 5.2 2.5 2.2 18.9 18.6

United Tractors BUY 32,450 39,000 121,043 8,783 9,714 2,355 2,604 2,355 2,604 18.6% 10.6% 13.8 12.5 6.0 5.2 2.5 2.2 18.9 18.6

Industrial Estate 10,095 1,052 1,237 17 20 -54.6% 17.6% 9.6 8.2 6.4 5.8 0.7 0.6 7.0 7.9

Puradelta Lestari BUY 127 240 6,121 645 594 13 12 13 12 -1.8% -7.9% 9.5 10.3 7.6 8.0 0.8 0.8 9.1 8.1

Bekasi Fajar BUY 172 300 1,659 498 581 52 60 52 60 3.0% 16.6% 3.3 2.9 4.2 3.7 0.4 0.3 12.2 12.7

Surya Semesta HOLD 492 540 2,315 (91) 62 (19) 13 (19) 13 -107.7% 168.5% (25.5) 37.2 8.2 5.8 0.6 0.6 (2.4) 1.7

Media 38,382 3,551 3,919 123 136 27.5% 10.4% 10.8 9.8 7.1 6.3 2.6 2.2 25.5 24.5

Media Nusantara Citra BUY 845 1,450 12,063 1,960 2,158 137 151 137 151 34.9% 10.1% 6.2 5.6 4.3 3.9 1.2 1.0 20.3 19.7

Surya Citra Media BUY 1,800 2,700 26,319 1,591 1,761 107 119 107 119 19.5% 10.7% 16.8 15.1 11.1 9.9 5.7 4.8 37.4 35.0

Mining 201,308 18,825 19,111 212 215 24.1% 1.5% 10.7 10.5 4.7 4.7 1.5 1.5 14.7 14.1

Adaro Energy BUY 1,820 2,800 58,214 7,376 6,806 231 213 231 213 17.4% -7.7% 7.9 8.6 3.1 3.0 1.2 1.2 16.0 14.2

Timah BUY 755 1,400 5,623 603 689 81 93 81 93 19.9% 14.4% 9.3 8.2 4.9 4.3 0.9 0.8 9.6 10.2

Vale Indonesia BUY 3,590 5,900 35,671 1,117 1,708 112 172 112 172 -662.5% 53.0% 31.9 20.9 10.2 8.0 1.5 1.5 4.7 7.1

Aneka Tambang HOLD 800 1,000 19,225 428 501 18 21 18 21 213.7% 17.0% 44.9 38.4 11.6 11.5 1.0 1.0 2.3 2.6

Bukit Asam BUY 4,120 5,000 47,465 4,735 5,028 436 463 436 463 5.8% 6.2% 9.5 8.9 6.2 6.0 2.8 2.4 31.2 27.2

Indo Tambangraya Megah BUY 25,425 33,200 28,728 3,903 3,669 3,455 3,247 3,455 3,247 15.3% -6.0% 7.4 7.8 3.4 3.9 2.0 1.9 28.9 24.9

Harum Energy HOLD 2,360 3,100 6,381 663 709 245 262 245 262 12.7% 6.9% 9.6 9.0 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 15.8 16.1

Plantation 36,334 2,811 3,094 264 291 -8.2% 10.1% 12.9 11.7 6.8 5.4 1.1 1.1 9.1 9.4

Astra Agro Lestari BUY 12,025 16,500 23,144 1,639 1,874 851 973 851 973 -18.5% 14.3% 14.1 12.4 7.0 6.1 1.2 1.1 8.8 9.5

Sampoerna Agro BUY 2,340 3,000 4,423 346 406 191 223 191 223 20.4% 17.1% 12.3 10.5 7.0 3.9 1.1 1.0 8.7 9.4

PP London Sumatra BUY 1,285 2,000 8,767 826 815 121 119 121 119 8.2% -1.4% 10.6 10.8 6.0 4.4 1.0 1.0 9.9 9.2

Poultry 114,213 5,847 6,722 39 45 65.0% 15.0% 19.5 17.0 11.6 10.3 3.7 3.2 20.3 20.3

Charoen Pokphand HOLD 5,325 4,700 87,319 3,987 4,636 208 283 208 283 32.2% 36.1% 25.6 18.8 13.7 12.0 4.7 4.1 23.3 23.1

Japfa Comfeed BUY 2,050 2,600 24,039 1,739 1,947 152 171 152 171 74.4% 12.0% 13.5 12.0 8.2 7.3 2.3 2.0 17.6 17.3

Malindo Feedmill HOLD 1,275 1,150 2,854 121 139 54 62 54 62 147.7% 14.7% 23.6 20.6 9.1 8.5 1.6 1.5 6.9 7.5

Property 74,388 8,327 7,912 69 66 -11.7% -5.0% 8.9 9.4 7.0 6.9 1.0 0.9 12.3 10.5

Alam Sutera HOLD 284 340 5,580 1,605 1,576 82 80 83 80 16.3% -1.8% 3.5 3.5 5.3 5.3 0.6 0.5 17.5 15.0

Bumi Serpong Damai BUY 1,125 1,930 21,653 2,842 2,126 148 110 147 110 -42.2% -25.2% 7.6 10.2 6.0 7.1 0.8 0.7 10.7 7.4

Ciputra Development BUY 760 1,220 14,106 1,171 1,216 63 66 63 66 30.9% 3.9% 12.0 11.6 8.9 8.2 1.0 0.9 8.4 8.1

Pakuw on Jati BUY 505 710 24,321 2,327 2,652 48 55 49 55 24.2% 14.0% 10.5 9.2 7.1 6.1 2.0 1.6 20.5 19.5

Summarecon BUY 605 1,000 8,728 383 343 27 24 27 24 5.8% -10.5% 22.8 25.5 8.5 8.7 1.3 1.2 5.7 4.9

Retail 76,971 3,556 4,337 69 85 62.9% 22.0% 21.6 17.7 12.3 9.7 4.9 4.3 23.3 25.8

Mitra Adi Perkasa BUY 810 1,050 13,446 874 824 528 498 528 498 161.0% -5.7% 1.5 1.6 7.4 6.2 3.0 2.6 20.0 17.1

Ramayana HOLD 1,335 1,800 9,473 452 497 66 73 66 73 11.2% 9.9% 20.1 18.3 14.2 12.9 2.5 2.3 12.5 12.8

Matahari Department Store BUY 6,675 1,100 19,477 2,037 2,150 698 737 698 737 6.8% 5.6% 9.6 9.1 6.0 5.5 6.4 5.1 75.9 63.0

Matahari Putra Prima SELL 193 200 1,453 (760) (188) (141) (35) (141) (35) -38.9% 75.3% (1.4) (5.5) 5.7- 13.4 3.5 6.4 (95.7) (58.7)

Ace Hardw are BUY 1,470 1,600 25,211 953 1,053 56 62 56 62 22.5% 10.6% 26.3 23.8 20.5 18.2 6.2 5.4 25.1 24.1

Erajaya Sw asembada BUY 2,480 4,000 7,911 634 711 219 245 219 245 86.7% 12.1% 11.3 10.1 6.6 6.1 1.9 1.6 15.9 15.6

Telco 396,907 20,873 24,727 181 215 -11.8% 18.5% 19.0 16.1 5.3 4.7 3.0 2.8 16.0 18.1

Telekomunikasi Indonesia BUY 3,540 4,300 350,680 20,783 23,624 206 234 206 234 -6.2% 13.7% 17.2 15.1 5.7 5.1 3.6 3.3 21.9 23.4

Indosat HOLD 2,980 3,300 16,193 (360) 73 (66) 13 (67) 13 -131.7% 120.2% (45.0) 222.7 3.4 2.8 1.2 1.2 (2.7) 0.6

XL Axiata BUY 2,810 3,800 30,033 450 1,031 42 96 66 96 19.8% 129.3% 66.8 29.1 4.9 4.4 1.4 1.3 2.1 4.6

PER (x)

Equity

Valuation Net profit, Rp bn EPS (Rp) Core EPS (Rp) EPS Growth ROE EV / EBITDA (x) PBV (x)



LEADERS Price as on Code 24-Sep-18 21-Sep-18 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating

Semen Baturaja SMBR 2,750 2,620 5.0 5.8 (2.1) (27.6) SELL

Surya Semesta SSIA 492 470 4.7 2.9 0.8 (4.5) HOLD

Timah TINS 755 730 3.4 6.3 (5.6) (2.6) BUY

Kimia Farma KAEF 2,440 2,390 2.1 4.3 1.2 (9.6) HOLD

Bank Central Asia BBCA 23,925 23,700 0.9 - (4.6) 9.2 HOLD

BTPN BTPN 3,680 3,670 0.3 (0.5) (8.0) 49.6 HOLD

Jasa Marga JSMR 4,360 4,350 0.2 (0.7) (5.2) (31.9) BUY

BTPS BTPS 1,650 1,650 - 0.3 0.9 N/A BUY

Unilever UNVR 47,075 47,075 - 2.2 9.5 (15.8) HOLD

Kino Indonesia KINO 1,530 1,530 - 2.0 (6.4) (27.8) BUY

Sources: Bloomberg

LAGGARDS Price as on Code 24-Sep-18 21-Sep-18 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating

Japfa Comfeed JPFA 2,050 2,220 (7.7) (4.2) (12.4) 57.7 BUY

Ace Hardware ACES 1,470 1,560 (5.8) 8.9 6.9 27.3 BUY

Surya Citra Media SCMA 1,800 1,900 (5.3) (1.6) (14.7) (27.4) BUY

HM Sampoerna HMSP 3,750 3,900 (3.8) (1.6) 1.9 (20.7) HOLD

Malindo Feedmill MAIN 1,275 1,325 (3.8) 4.9 (14.4) 72.3 HOLD

Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 25,425 26,400 (3.7) (3.2) (1.8) 22.8 BUY

Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI 7,375 7,650 (3.6) 2.1 (0.7) (25.5) BUY

Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI 3,010 3,120 (3.5) 1.3 (8.0) (17.3) BUY

Adaro Energy ADRO 1,820 1,880 (3.2) 6.1 (4.7) (2.2) BUY

Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,125 1,160 (3.0) (2.2) (10.0) (33.8) BUY

Sources: Bloomberg

COVERAGE PERFORMANCE



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