Epidemiological Transition Models Population Control

Epidemiological Transition Model

• ETM-shows distinctive causes of death in each stage of the demographic transition model

• Stage 1– Epidemics/Pandemics: Infectious and parasitic

diseases, famine– Ex: Black Plague (25 million Europeans died)

• Stage 2– Receding epidemic (affects high proportion of

population, but in isolation)– Ex: Cholera (contaminated water supply)

Epidemiological Transition Model

• Stage 3– Degenerative and human-created disease– Ex: Cardiovascular disease and Cancer

• Stage 4– Delayed degenerative diseases– Ex: Alzheimer's, Diabetes

• Stage 5?– Reemerging infectious and parasitic disease– Ex: Malaria, TB, AIDS

AIDS/HIV+• 2010 world distribution:

– 23 million in Sub-Saharan Africa– 5+ million in Asia (India, China, SE Asia)– 2 million in Latin America (Caribbean-Haiti)

• Sub-Saharan Africa– 70% of HIV cases– Zimbabwe, Botswana, Zambia, South Africa,

Kenya– Increase death rates– Declining life expectancy

How do Governments Affect Population Change?

• Many governments institute policies designed to influence the overall

growth rate or ethnic ratios within the population.These policies fall into three groups: 1. Expansive2. Eugenic3. Restrictive

Expansive Population Policies

• Encourage families to have more children• Communist Societies

– Soviet Union– China – Mao Zedong

• European countries: NOW– Tax incentives– Sweden

• Cash payments, tax incentives, job leave, work hour flexibility lasting up to 8 years after birth

• Short baby boom, but led to issues

Eugenic Population Policies

• Favoring one racial or cultural sector of the population over the others– Tax discrimination, allocation of resources,

favoritism• Examples

– Nazi Germany– Japan?– USA?

Restrictive Population Policies• Reducing the rate of natural increase

through a range of means– China: “One-child” policy: Income bonuses, Better

health care benefits, Better retirement pensions, Priority in housing

Solutions to Population Growth• Empowerment of Women

– $ for contraception & education– Changing cultural norms to value girls

• Diffusion of Birth Control Policies– Educating men w/ responsibility for birth control– Sterilization

Solutions to Population Growth

• Redistribution of wealth - improve standard of living for poor so that children aren’t as necessary– Improving farming techniques in poor

areas– Starvation, Malnourishment

Solutions to Population Growth

• Medical technology – costs of maintaining vulnerable populations (old & young)

• Addressing government policies to deal with their growing populations

Something to think about…

• Is population control funded by MDCs ethical in LDCs?– Population control v. culture– Birth control? – Sterilization?– Abortion?– Sex determination?– Incentives: Money, food, clothing?

• Is population control funded by MDCs needed to keep mass amounts of people in the LDCs out of poverty?