Epic research special report of 19 jan 2016

DAILY REPORT

19th

JAN. 2016

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Global markets at a glance

Asian stocks rose modestly and crude oil prices nudged up on Tuesday after Chinese GDP figures were mostly in line with expectations. China's economy grew 6.8% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, the data showed, the slowest growth since 2009. Industrial output in December rose 5.9% from a year earlier, compared with forecasts for a 6.0% increase. The lack of negative surprises offered the market a slight reprieve following a tumultuous start to 2016 as concerns about China's economic health weighed heavily on global growth prospects. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.2% after ear-lier touching its lowest level since October 2011. Australian shares added 0.8%, while Tokyo's Nikkei dropped 0.3%.

Euro zone banks weighed on European stocks on Monday after news that the European Central Bank was scrutinizing some non-performing loans, sending a top index back to its lowest point in over a year. The euro zone bank sector fell 3.1 percent, with traders citing news over the weekend that the ECB is quizzing a number of euro zone banks about non-performing loans as it ramps up efforts to tackle the region's mountain of bad debt. The FTSEurofirst 300 touched its lowest level in more than a year. Some said the ECB might act to provide more stimulus when it meets later this week, given the 10 percent drop in European shares driven by weak oil prices and concerns over China.

Previous day Roundup

There is simply no end to mayhem on Dalal Street as bears are in total control. The market has moved to levels seen before the Modi govt. took charge. Both the major indices touched 52-week lows in intra-day trade on Monday. The Sensex lost 267pts or 1% to end at lowest level in last 20 months. The 30-share index ended at 24188.37. A whop-ping 548 stocks hit the 20% lower circuit at the BSE. The Nifty broke below 7400. It ended down 86.80pts or 1.2% at 7351 last seen on May in 2014. The midcaps got hammered in trade and the index lost 3% from previous close.

Index stats

The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial indices performed as follow; Consumer Durables [down 120.27pts], Capital Goods [down 258.13Pts], PSU [down 135.04pts], FMCG [down 58.27Pts], Realty [down 38.45pts], Power [down 32.03pts], Auto [down 246.43Pts], Healthcare [down 305.93Pts], IT [down 53.61pts], Metals [down 74.62Pts], TECK [down 4305pts], Oil& Gas [down 322.63pts].

World Indices

Index Value % Change

D J l 15988.08 -2.39

S&P 500 1880.33 -2.16

NASDAQ 4488.42 -2.74

FTSE 100 5779.92 -0.42

Nikkei 225 16834.13 -0.72

Hong Kong 19235.55 -0.01

Top Gainers

Company CMP Change % Chg

BHEL 141.50 5.10 3.74

TATASTEEL 237.40 7.70 3.35

ULTRACEMCO 2,650.00 31.80 1.21

HCLTECH 848.00 9.95 1.19

WIPRO 548.60 5.50 1.01

Top Losers


CAIRN 110.55 9.05 -7.57

VEDL 68.10 4.75 -6.52

RELIANCE 1,020.40 52.90 -4.93

BPCL 894.60 37.95 -4.07

ASIANPAINT 847.00 32.25 -3.67

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH

Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg

- -

Indian Indices


NIFTY 7351.00 -86.80 -1.17

SENSEX 24188.37 -266.67 -1.09

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW

Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg

VEDL 68.10 -4.75 -6.52

SYNDIBANK 70.40 0.30 0.43

TATACHEM 357.55 -16.50 -4.41

SBIN 180.85 -3.45 -1.87

PNB 90.70 -1.50 -1.63

RECLTD 185.40 -9.90 -5.07

NMDC 84.20 -1.80 -2.09

ONGC 214.80 -4.65 -2.12

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DAILY REPORT

19th

JAN. 2016


STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] 3. INDUSIND BANK

If we see the daily chart of the stock it has clearly given closing below the support level which clearly indicates signs of selling so it is recommended to sell Indusind bank below 894 for the target up to 884 with stop loss of 908 MACRO NEWS Indulekha sold to Hindustan Unilever, Mosons Group in

non-personal care initiative Godrej Consumer Products eyes 10 per cent market

share in hand wash, sanitizers segment Mineral production up by 2.3% in November 2015 All 9 USFDA observations will be resolved in 3 months:

Wockhardt Kotak Mahindra Bank Q3 profit up 12%; asset quality

stable, provisions higher Wipro Q3 IT services topline misses forecast, sees 2-4% $

revenue growth in Q4 Rel Jio, RCom ink strategic partnership covering 4G LTE

services Iran to boost oil exports by 500,000 bpd after sanctions AIA group gets CCI nod to buy 23 pc more in Tata AIA Life Indian Hotels gets shareholders nod to lend Rs 700 cr to

arm Oil under pressure as Iran orders sharp rise in crude out-

put Results today: Reliance Industries, HCL Tech, RPower Reduction in NPAs, strict asset control aided Q3 growth:

LIC ONGC, Oil India seek relief from LPG and Kerosene sub-

sidy burden Tata Motors -To buyback NCDs worth Rs 450 crore as

part of debt restructuring program

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1. LT [FUTURE]

LT in last trading session broke the support and closed with bearish candlestick so further sell is seen so sell it below 1075 for target of 1065 1050 with sl of 1090 2. RELCAP [FUTURE]

Following the correction in the market and index RELIANCE CAPITAL is coming down since 7 sessions and in yesterday session it has also crossed Fibonacci important level so seems to be bearish further upto 332 so sell it below 339 for target 335 330 with stop loss of 343


DAILY REPORT

19th

JAN. 2016


FUTURE & OPTION

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION

Symbol Op-

tion

Type

Strike

Price

LTP Traded

Volume

(Contracts)

Open

Interest

NIFTY CE 7,500 35.20 4,56,354 44,96,550

NIFTY CE 7,700 6.75 3,18,111 62,80,350

BANKNIFTY CE 16,000 31.50 1,08,481 8,90,700

TATASTEEL CE 1,100 7.45 7,731 20,97,500

IFCI CE 200 1.15 4,548 58,48,000

SBIN CE 190 3.20 3,801 23,50,000

LT CE 1,160 9.00 3,467 11,33,500

MOST ACTIVE PUT OPTION

Symbol Op-

tion

Type

Strike

Price

LTP Traded

Volume

(Contracts)

Open

Interest

NIFTY PE 7,400 105.50 3,62,775 58,79,175

NIFTY PE 7,300 64.05 3,20,768 70,71,150

BANKNIFTY PE 15,000 253.00 89,487 4,82,400

RELIANCE PE 1,020 26.00 3,323 5,97,500

SBIN PE 180 5.50 2,887 14,42,000

INFY PE 1,140 20.40 1,961 3,23,000

TATASTEEL PE 230 5.20 1,957 10,34,000

LT PE 1,050 16.25 1,842 1,09,200

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS

BUY OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY SELL

No. of

Contracts Amount in

Crores No. of

Contracts Amount in

Crores No. of

Contracts Amount in

Crores NET AMOUNT

INDEX FUTURES 45488 2370.24 26781 1412.13 312462 16541.52 958.11

INDEX OPTIONS 800882 43058.16 806680 43588.73 1431798 77447.82 -530.58

STOCK FUTURES 112163 5026.41 119761 5510.29 1107274 49028.57 -483.88

STOCK OPTIONS 97361 4573.21 98898 4652.74 93054 4199.92 -79.53

TOTAL -135.87

STOCKS IN NEWS

Suzlon Group bags repeat orders from HPCL and NALCO

BHEL starts second 660 MW thermal unit in U.P. Discoms used Rs 5,000 crore of Delhi govt funds: CAG Karnataka Bank Q3 net slides 9 pc to Rs 97 cr IOC begins petrol production from Paradip refinery Maruti Suzuki to set up 250 Nexa outlets by FY17 Aurobindo rises on USFDA approval for Tranexamic

acid injection Parag Milk Foods gets ready for Rs 300 crore IPO Rallis India Q3 net down 20% at Rs 20.41 crore

NIFTY FUTURE

Nifty crumbled in late sell-off in last trading session, hit-ting 19-month closing lows again, dragged by correction in oil prices. Nifty for now is in bearish zone and it may come down to 7250, for we advise you to sell it around 7420 for the targets of 7360 and 7260 with 7550

INDICES R2 R1 PIVOT S1 S2

BANK NIFTY 15,396.17 15,208.48 15,082.72 14,895.03 14,769.27

NIFTY 7,510.93 7,430.97 7,383.68 7,303.72 7,256.43


DAILY REPORT

19th

JAN. 2016


RECOMMENDATIONS

GOLD

TRADING STRATEGY:

BUY GOLD ABOVE 26200 TARGET 26280 26370 SL 26100

SELL GOLD BELOW 26000 TARGET 25920 25820 SL 26100

SILVER

TRADING STRATEGY:

BUY SILVER ABOVE 34200 TARGET 34400 34700 SL 33900

SELL SILVER BELOW 33900 TARGET 33700 33400 SL 34200

COMMODITY ROUNDUP Aluminium futures traded 0.30% higher at Rs 100.75 per kg, largely in tandem with a firming trend in base metals at the LME. Besides, increased demand at domestic spot marketsinfluenced prices. At MCX aluminium for deliv-ery in January rose 30 paise, or 0.30%, to Rs 100.75 per kg, in a business turnover of 304 lots. Metal for delivery in Feb-ruary was trading higher by 25 paise, or 0.25%, at Rs 101.20 per kg in two lots. Analysts attributed the rise to a firming trend at LME and pick up in demand at the domestic spot markets mainly influenced aluminium futures here. Copper has tumbled to its lowest since May 2009, pressured by a slide in oil prices plus further losses in shares and the offshore currency in China, where weak loan data under-mined sentiment. Chinese shares fell below December's low while the yuan weakened sharply offshore, knocking confi-dence about demand for metals in the world's top con-sumer of raw materials. Physical demand for copper re-mained steady in China with local buyers willing to pay higher premiums as the futures have dropped. Copper prices in the local physical market traded at a 160 yuan pre-mium against the front month contract this week, the high-est since early December. In the United States, retail sales unexpectedly fell in December, industrial production slumped for a third straight month, while business invento-ries posted their largest fall since 2011, all indicating growth slowed sharply in the fourth quarter. Gold imports jump 179% to USD 3.80 bn in December. India imported 850 tonnes of gold during January-September pe-riod of 2015 as against 650 tonnes in the year-ago period. The government today raised the import tariff value on gold to $354 per 10 gram and on silver to $457 per kg as per global price trends. During the first fortnight of this month the import tariff value on gold was at $345 per 10 and on silver it was $452 per kg. The import tariff value is the base price at which the customs duty is determined to prevent under-invoicing. It is normally revised on a fortnightly basis. The change in tariff value of these precious metals has been notified by the Central Board of Excise and Customs. Glob-ally, gold rose by 0.4% to $1,093.46 an ounce in Singapore. The lead market was in surplus by 8kt in January to Octo-ber 2015 which follows a deficit of 35.1kt recorded in the wholeof 2014. Total stocks at the end of October were 138kt lower than at the end of 2014. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.


DAILY REPORT

19th

JAN. 2016


NCDEX

NCDEX INDICES

Index Value % Change

CASTOR SEED 3450 -0.26

CHANA 4834 -0.41

CORIANDER 6408 -4.00

COTTON SEED 2079 +3.07

GUAR SEED 3164 -0.16

JEERA 13490 -1.06

MUSTARDSEED 4518 +1.76

SOY BEAN 3708 +0.73

SUGAR M GRADE 3242 -0.64

TURMERIC 9258 -3.98

RECOMMENDATIONS

DHANIYA

BUY CORIANDER APR ABOVE 6860 TARGET 6905 7055 SL

BELOW 6795

SELL CORIANDER APR BELOW 6750 TARGET 6705 6555 SL

ABOVE 6815

GUARGUM

BUY GUARGUM FEB ABOVE 6100 TARGET 6150 6220 SL

BELOW 6040

SELL GUARGUM FEB BELOW 5910 TARGET 5860 5790 SL

ABOVE 5970

Amid subdued domestic demand at spot market and higher

supplies from producing regions, cardamomprices drifted

by 0.62% to Rs 769.30 per kg in futures market. At the MCX,

cardamom for delivery in February traded lower by Rs 4.80,

or 0.62%, to Rs 769.30 per kg, in a business turnover of 104

lots. However, spice for delivery in March held steady at Rs

770.10 per kg in 16 lots. Besides subdued demand in the

spot market, higher supplies from producing belts mainly

put pressure on cardamom prices at futures trade.

As per the latest release from Solvent Extractors' Associa-

tion of India, Import of vegetable oils during Dec 2015 is

reported at 1,418,612 tons compared to 1,139,586 tons in

Dec, 2014, consisting of 1,407,145 tons of edible oils and

11,467 tons of non-edible oils i.e. up by 18%. The overall

import of vegetable oils during first two months of current

oil year 2015-16, Nov. & Dec. 2015 is reported at 2,756,047

tons compared to 2,329,520 tons i.e. up by 18%. It is a well

known fact that globally the prices of edible oil are histori-

cally low since 2008, and has affected the domestic players.

After receiving several complaints from importing countries

and facing a ban on Indian oilseeds, the IndianOil-

seeds Produce and Export Promotion Council has launched

an exercise to improve quality. According to Council, the

importance of qualitystandards is becoming increasingly

important in world trade. The move comes in the wake of

muted oilseed exportsfrom India so far. As against 1.3mn

tonnes in 2014-15, this year exports have been merely

about 400,000 tonnes in the first seven months of FY16.


DAILY REPORT

19th

JAN. 2016


RBI Reference Rate

Currency Rate Currency Rate

Rupee- $ 67.5880 Yen-100 57.6800

Euro 73.6101 GBP 96.6800

CURRENCY

USD/INR

BUY USD/INR JAN ABOVE 67.83 TARGET 67.96 68.11 SL BE-

LOW 67.63

SELL USD/INR JAN BELOW 67.58 TARGET 67.45 67.3 SL

ABOVE 67.78

EUR/INR

BUY EUR/INR JAN ABOVE 74.03 TARGET 74.18 74.38 SL BE-

LOW 73.83

SELL EUR/INR JAN BELOW 73.82 TARGET 73.67 73.47 SL

ABOVE 74.02

CURRENCY MARKET UPDATES: Extending its fall for the third session, the Indian rupee to-day dropped nine paise to 67.68 per dollar on sustained demand for the US currency from banks and importers amidst sharp fall in equities. Sustained foreign capital out-flows also affected the market sentiment. They pumped out USD 153.46 millions from the equity market on last Friday as per the SEBI’s record. The domestic unit resumed lower at 67.61 per dollar as against last Friday’s closing level of 67.59 at the Interbank Forex market and dropped further to 67.73 before con-cluding at 67.68, showing a loss of nine paise or 0.13 per cent. The Indian rupee has dropped by 83 paise or 1.24 per cent in three days. The domestic currency hovered in a range of 67.49 and 67.73 per dollar during the day. The dollar index was higher by 0.14 per cent against a bas-ket of six currencies in the late afternoon trade. Overseas, the US dollar mostly traded higher against its main rivals in the early Asian trade, while safe-haven yen got off to a fly-ing start, as oil prices slid below USD 30 per barrel and fears grew about the health of the Chinese economy. A batch of disappointing US data, including a fall in retail sales added to worries about the global economy. The dol-lar strengthened against the yen during the afternoon trade in Asian trade as investors sold the Japanese cur-rency, walking away from its perceived safety after losses in Tokyo stocks narrowed. Trading range for spot USD/INR pair is expected to be within 67.50â€“68.10 and continue to take cue from do-mestic equity market. In forward market, premium for dol-lar eased on mild receiving's by exporters. The benchmark six-month premium payable in June edged- down to 191-193 paise from 191.75-193.75 paise on last Friday and for-ward December 2016 contract also fell to 401.50-403.50 from 402-404 paise yesterday. In cross-currency trades, the rupee recovered against the pound sterling to finish at 96.79 from last weekend’s level of 96.90, but declined against the euro to conclude at 73.72 from 73.64. How-ever, the domestic currency continued to decline against the Japanese yen to settle at 57.65 from 57.58 per 100 yen yesterday.


DAILY REPORT

19th

JAN. 2016


Date Commodity/ Currency

Pairs Contract Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark

18/01/16 NCDEX DHANIYA APR. BUY 7060 7105-7255 6995 NOT EXECUTED

18/01/16 NCDEX DHANIYA APR. SELL 7000 6955-6805 7065 BOOKED FULL PROFIT

18/01/16 NCDEX GUARGUM FEB. BUY 6020 6070-6140 5960 NO PROFIT NO LOSS

18/01/16 NCDEX GUARGUM FEB. SELL 5910 5860-5790 5970 SL TRIGGERED

18/01/16 MCX GOLD FEB. BUY 26200 26280-26370 26100 NOT EXECUTED

18/01/16 MCX GOLD FEB. SELL 26000 25920-25820 26100 NO PROFIT NO LOSS

18/01/16 MCX SILVER MAR. BUY 34200 34400-34700 33900 NOT EXECUTED

18/01/16 MCX SILVER MAR. SELL 33900 33700-33400 34200 NO PROFIT NO LOSS

Date Scrip

CASH/

FUTURE/

OPTION

Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark

18/01/16 NIFTY FUTURE SELL 7450 7380-7300 7550 BOOKED PROFIT

18/01/16 GRASIM FUTURE BUY 3515 3540-3600 3480 NOT EXECUTED

18/01/16 JETAIRWAYS FUTURE SELL 698 692-685 705 BOOKED FULL PROFIT

18/01/16 EROSMEDIA CASH SELL 200 197-195 203.1 BOOKED PROFIT

15/01/16 NIFTY FUTURE BUY 7500 7600-7700 7400 SL TRIGGERED

15/01/16 LUPIN FUTURE BUY 1725 1750-1780 1693 CALL OPEN


DAILY REPORT

19th

JAN. 2016


NEXT WEEK'S U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

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Disclaimer

TIME REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL CONSENSUS

FORECAST PREVIOUS

MONDAY, JAN. 18

NONE SCHEDULED

MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. HOLIDAY

TUESDAY, JAN. 19

10 AM HOME BUILDERS' INDEX JAN. 61 61

WEDNESDAY, JAN. 20

8:30 AM CONSUMER PRICE INDEX DEC. -0.1% 0.0%

8:30 AM CORE CPI DEC. 0.1% 0.2%

8:30 AM HOUSING STARTS DEC. 1.190 MLN 1.173 MLN

THURSDAY, JAN. 21

8:30 AM WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS JAN. 16 N/A 284,000

8:30 AM PHILLY FED JAN -4.0 -10.2

FRIDAY, JAN. 22

9;45 AM MARKIT PMI FLASH JAN. -- 51.2

10 AM EXISTING HOME SALES DEC. 5.15 MLN 4.76 MLN

10 AM LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS DEC. -- 0.4%


Epic research special report of 19 jan 2016

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Transcript of Epic research special report of 19 jan 2016