Epic research special report of 15 sep 2015

DAILY REPORT

15th

SEPT. 2015

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Global markets at a glance Global markets were mixed ahead of the crucial FOMC meet outcome due on September 17. European markets like France's CAC, Germany's DAX and Britain's FTSE gained 0.3-0.7%. However, Asian markets ended in red on weak macro data. China's Shanghai Composite fell 2.7% after Au-gust industrial output rose 6.1 %, missing estimates and fixed asset investment slowed to 10.9 %, the weakest in 15 years. Japan's Nikkei dropped 1.6 %. US stocks closed down on Monday as many investors put off making big bets ahead of the Fed's policy meeting this week and others worried about weak economic data from China. Stocks are expected to stay volatile ahead of a Fed-eral Reserve announcement scheduled for Thursday after a two-day meeting at which it will decide whether or not to make its first interest rate increase since 2006. The DJI av-erage fell 62.13 points, or 0.38 %, to 16,370.96, the S&P 500 lost 8.02 points, or 0.41 %, to 1,953.03 and the Nasdaq dropped 16.58 points, or 0.34 %, to 4,805.76. Nine of the 10 major S&P sectors fell, led by the materials index. Utili-ties rose 0.23 % while the energy index fell 0.8 % as U.S. crude oil prices settled down 1.4 %. European equities ended lower on Monday as investors grew jittery ahead of the Fed meeting in which the U.S. central bank could take a decision to maintain or start raising interest rates after keeping them low for years. Previous day Roundup It was a good start to crucial Fed week on Monday as the market rallied 1 % after a 1.6 % upside in last week. Banks drove market higher on hopes of rate cut. The BSE Midcap index outperformed benchmarks, rising 1.3 %. The market breadth was in favour of advances with 2:1 ratio. The Sen-sex jumped 246.49 points to 25856.70 and the Nifty rose 82.95 points to 7872.25. Chris Wood of CLSA said India continued to be the top overweight market. CLSA has increased India's weightage by one %age point to 23 % in its Asia Pacific ex-Japan rela-tive-return portfolio while weightage of China reduced by 2 %age points to neutral. Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial indices performed as follow; Consumer Durables [down 13.50pts], Capital Goods [up 55.26pts], PSU [up 120.21pts], FMCG [up 41.67pts], Realty [up 20.84pts], Power [up 44.67pts], Auto [up 62.20 Pts], Healthcare [up 212.39Pts], IT [up 69.93pts], Metals [up 194.69pts], TECK [up 56.24pts], Oil& Gas [up 103.47pts].

World Indices

Index Value % Change

D J l 16370.96 -0.38

S&P 500 1953.03 -0.41

NASDAQ 4805.76 -0.34

FTSE 100 6084.59 -0.54

Nikkei 225 18203.95 +1.33

Hong Kong 21530.62 -0.15

Top Gainers

Company CMP Change % Chg

NTPC 125.70 6.05 5.06

VEDL 101.00 4.00 4.12

BPCL 884.95 34.40 4.04

HINDALCO 78.95 2.85 3.75

TATASTEEL 241.00 8.05 3.46

Top Losers


CAIRN 143.45 2.20 -1.51

IDEA 147.30 1.60 -1.07

BAJAJ-AUTO 2,317.70 8.10 -0.35

MARUTI 4,310.30 7.45 -0.17

TCS 2,548.00 4.00 -0.16

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH

Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg

JINDWORLD 171.00 15.20 9.76

NAVKARCORP 164.50 1.60 0.98

COALINDIA 339.35 5.50 1.65

Indian Indices


NIFTY 7872.25 +82.95 +1.06

SENSEX 25765.32 +155.11 +0.61

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW

Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg

VIMALOIL 62.40 0.60 0.97

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DAILY REPORT

15th

SEPT. 2015


STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]

1. DCBBANK {CASH}

On EOD chart DCBBANK create ascending triangle pattern

and today it cross breakout level of 129.80 at last it fin-

ished at 130.20 so it will be good to buy above 131 for tar-

get of 132.50-134.50-137 with stop loss of 129

MACRO NEWS

WPI inflation in August came in at negative 4.95 %

against negative 4.05 % in July and also better than poll

of negative 4.43 %.

FIIs/RFPIs/QFIs can now invest up to 40 percent in Ma-

ruti Suzuki -Foreign shareholding in Maruti Suzuki has

gone below revised threshold limit

Govt to soon clear $700 m oil dues to Iran as first

tranche

Gujarat bags top slot in World Bank's ease of doing biz

index

CPI for the month of August came in at 3.66%, marginally

lower than the July CPI which stood at 3.78 percent. The

range for the CPI was between 3.3% and 3.6%. Despite

the marginal fall in CPI, this will still come as music to the

Reseve Bank's ears which had said it expects retail infla-

tion to fall to about 4 percent by August.

ONGC, Reliance Industries (RIL) may get better pricing

for Coal Bed Methane blocks this fiscal

RBI signs MoU with Nepal Rastra Ban

PM Narendra Modi to meet power producers today to

review their performance

Texmaco Rail to acquire majority equity share capital of

76% in Bright Power at enterprise value of Rs 100 cr

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]

1. KSCL [FUTURE]

KSCL FUTURE last week traded below 466 which was high of previous week and down side it create bottom around 430, at last session it made high of 459 & finished with 2.71% gain and formed bullish candle since RSI also cross over sold zone so it may give any sharp rise so buy it above 466 use stop loss of 460 for target of 472-478-485.

2. VEDL [FUTURE]

Today market led by Metal Sector, most of metal share fin-ished around 4% gain VEDL future finished at 101.15 with 3.96% gain which is highest of last three week and 103 is breakout level since RSI also has positive divergence so it is good to buy above 103 use stop loss of 101 for target of 104.50-106-108.


DAILY REPORT

15th

SEPT. 2015


FUTURE & OPTION

MOST ACTIVE PUT OPTION

Symbol Op-

tion

Type

Strike

Price

LTP Traded

Volume

(Contracts)

Open

Interest

NIFTY CE 8,000 74.60 5,34,433 49,26,800

NIFTY CE 8,100 42.45 2,91,379 34,00,200

BANKNIFTY CE 17,000 332.50 62,236 5,20,525

AXISBANK CE 500 15.00 3,777 8,56,500

RELIANCE CE 880 12.75 3,705 6,08,750

ADANIENT CE 80 2.80 3,560 5,22,500

RELIANCE CE 860 21.85 3,251 7,75,000

SBIN CE 240 6.75 2,737 41,19,000

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION

Symbol Op-

tion

Type

Strike

Price

LTP Traded

Volume

(Contracts)

Open

Interest

NIFTY PE 7,700 85.60 3,82,900 31,88,850

NIFTY PE 7,600 63.50 3,58,569 42,16,375

BANKNIFTY PE 16,000 122.00 50,580 4,87,450

SBIN PE 700 14.15 2,160 3,81,750

RELIANCE PE 840 11.00 1,705 2,75,500

TATASTEEL PE 230 5.10 1,682 10,08,000

AXISBANK PE 480 10.60 1,480 5,87,000

SBIN PE 230 6.05 1,403 13,36,000

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS

BUY OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY SELL

No. of

Contracts Amount in

Crores No. of

Contracts Amount in

Crores No. of

Contracts Amount in

Crores NET AMOUNT

INDEX FUTURES 42402 1084.32 53848 1118.08 1049063 22666.37 -33.76

INDEX OPTIONS 636581 13841.90 643392 14013.64 4061169 96524.35 -171.74

STOCK FUTURES 83836 2139.46 64954 1651.41 1857122 46822.83 488.05

STOCK OPTIONS 59127 1393.66 59681 1399.83 107351 2614.60 -6.17

TOTAL 276.38

STOCKS IN NEWS Alok Industries gets additional advance amounting to

USD 50 million Vedanta subsidiary BALCO to shut its Chhattisgarh

plant and likely to cut 1000 jobs Just Dial soars 14%, launches Android app Search Plus Sun Pharma up on Taro's Keveyis launch, $100mn sales

seen Siemens bags Rs 81cr order from Diesel Locomotive. NIFTY FUTURE

In last trading session, a slow movement was seen in the index but it was up and moved more than 80 points. Fur-ther it closed with a bull indications on daily charts but since it has resistance at current levels it may come down a little in opening hours. So we recommend you to buy it from around 7800-7820 for the targets of 7880 and 8000 with strict stop loss of 8650

INDICES R2 R1 PIVOT S1 S2

NIFTY 7,970.00 7,921.00 7,841.00 7,792.00 7,712.00

BANK NIFTY 17,203.00 17,057.00 16,791.00 16,645.00 16,379.00


DAILY REPORT

15th

SEPT. 2015


RECOMMENDATIONS

GOLD

TRADING STRATEGY:

BUY GOLD OCT ABOVE 26150 TGTS 26230,26330 SL BE-

LOW 26050

SELL GOLD OCT BELOW 25900 TGTS 25820,25720 SL

ABOVE 26000

SILVER

TRADING STRATEGY:

BUY SILVER DEC ABOVE 34900 TGTS 35100,35400 SL BE-

LOW 34600

SELL SILVER DEC BELOW 34600 TGTS 34400,34100 SL

ABOVE 34900

COMMODITY ROUNDUP

COMEX Gold futures stayed supported today as decline in

last week triggered steady bargain buying. Strong import

data from India could also pushed up the metal. Following

the hefty correction in prices of gold in the global market,

the domestic gold imports have soared to over 120 tonnes

in August, the highest so far in the fiscal. Gold imports stood

at 89 tonnes in July 2015. In August last year, the figure was

50 tonnes. The interest in gold buying could remain ele-

vated in coming months as festive demand improves.

Markets remain undecided about the FOMC interest rate

decision and investors are resorting to cautious play ahead

of the critical central bank meeting. Gold could edge up

amid such a scenario but major gains are possible in the

counter only if the Fed keeps interest rates on hold. The

COMEX Gold futures are trading at $1105 per ounce, up

0.06% on the day. MCX Gold futures are trading at Rs 25991

per 10 grams, almost unchanged on the day. The counter

can witness some buying support in dips. Gold speculator

and large futures traders cut their gold bullish positions last

weekafter pushing bets higher for the previous five weeks

Triggered by a sharp decline in global commodity prices

since June, Moody's Investors Service has forecast prices of

metals to remain weak in 2016. The reasons given are over-

supply and subdued demand from China, the world's largest

producer and consumer of metals. Following weak prices,

producers might cut production in 2016, which might help

prices to rebound in 2017. Moody's latest report says the

contraction in base metal prices and related commodities,

on a declining trend since 2013, has accelerated in recent

months. This is dues to a culmination of macro and industry

-specific factors. The price of nickel on the benchmark Lon-

don Metal Exchange fell 24 per cent and of other base met-

als by up to 17 per cent in the past three months.

Copper fell after weak Chinese industrial production and

fixed asset investment increased concerns over an eco-

nomic slowdown in the world's largest consumer. Indian

Copper markets traded at Rs 360.6 per kg, down 0.97%. The

prices tested a high of Rs 363 per kg and a low of Rs 358.95

per kg. China's fixed-asset investment grew 10.9% year on

year to 33.9 trillion yuan (5.32 trn U.S. dollars) in the first

eight months, official data showed. Growth retreated from

the 11.2 percent registered in the first seven months.


DAILY REPORT

15th

SEPT. 2015


NCDEX

NCDEX ROUNDUP

Cardamom prices fell 1.23% to Rs 823 per kg in futures trade after speculators booked profits at prevailing higher levels amid subdued demand in the spot market. Besides, adequate stock in the physical market following increased arrivals from producing belts weighed. At MCX cardamom for delivery in October shed Rs 10.30, or 1.23%, to Rs 823 per kg in a business turnover of 229 lots. Also, the spice for delivery in Sept traded lower by Rs 9.80, or 1.17%, to Rs 825 per kg in just one lot. Attributed the fall in cardamom fu-tures to profit-booking by speculators at existing levels amid sluggish demand in the spot market.

Not much buying interest was seen in guarseed futures in today's trading as prices declined by more than 2%. The spot prices were pressurized by hefty stocks in local mandies along with favorable weather situation in major guarseed sowing regions from the last 2days. This will main-tain selling pressure at elevated levels. Moreover, the total sowing acreage of guarseed crop in Rajasthan has surpass 40 lakh hectares against the target of 39 lakh hectares for the current year. The NCDEX October futures settled at Rs 3979 per quintal, down 2.89%. The NCDEX futures added 0.20 % in OI indicating fresh short position by traders.

the index for 'Food Articles' group rose by 2.6% to 262.3 (provisional) from 255.7 (provisional) for the previous month due to higher price of fruits & vegetables (10%), arhar (6%), gram and urad (3% each), bajra, pork and maize (2% each) and masur, ragi, wheat, barley and condiments & spices (1% each). The price index for pulses stood at 326 in August 2015, up 36% over August 2014. The headline wholesale price index dropped sharply by 4.95% year-over-year in August

NCDEX INDICES

Index Value % Change

CAETOR SEED 4094 -1.61

CHANA 4312 -3.99

CORIANDER 10815 -1.25

COTTON SEED 2158 +2.27

GUAR SEED 3945 -3.21

JEERA 15440 -1.40

MUSTARDSEED 4271 -0.51

REF. SOY OIL 566 +0.13

TURMERIC 7800 +0.85

WHEAT 1515 +0.40

RECOMMENDATIONS DHANIYA

BUY CORIANDER OCT ABOVE 11175 TARGET 11200 11280 SL BELOW 11148 SELL CORIANDER OCT BELOW 11900 TARGET 11875 11795 SL ABOVE 11927 GUARSGUM

BUY GUARGUM OCT ABOVE 9010 TARGET 9060 9130 SL BELOW 8950 SELL GUARGUM OCT BELOW 8670 TARGET 8620 8550 SL ABOVE 8730


DAILY REPORT

15th

SEPT. 2015


RBI Reference Rate

Currency Rate Currency Rate

Rupee- $ 66.3708 Yen-100 55.1800

Euro 75.3242 GBP 102.5429

CURRENCY

USD/INR

BUY USD/INR SEP ABOVE 66.56 TARGET 66.69 66.84 SL BE-LOW 66.36 SELL USD/INR SEP BELOW 66.43 TARGET 66.3 66.15 SL ABOVE 66.63

EUR/INR

BUY EUR/INR SEP ABOVE 75.42 TARGET 75.57 75.77 SL BE-LOW 75.22 SELL EUR/INR SEP BELOW 75.09 TARGET 74.94 74.74 SL ABOVE 75.29

CURRENCY MARKET UPDATES: The Indian rupee on Monday strengthened against the US dollar after wholesale price-based inflation hit a record low of -4.95% in August on cheaper fuel. The home currency closed at 66.34, up 0.31% from its previous close of 66.54. The local unit had opened at 66.42 a dollar. Most Asian currencies closed higher. The Philippines peso was up 0.34%, the Japanese yen 0.28%, the Singapore dol-lar 0.26%, the Malaysian ringgit 0.16%, the Chinese ren-minbi 0.11% and the South Korean won 0.11%. However, the Indonesian rupiah was down 0.08%. The dollar index, which measures the US currency’s strength against major currencies, was trading at 95.277, up 0.07% from its previous close of 95.194. The US dollar continues to linger lower against a basket of currencies on Monday as sentiment on the greenback re-mains vulnerable amid concerns that mixed U.S. economic reports and recent volatility in global financial markets will prompt the U.S. central bank to refrain from hiking interest rates on Thursday. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has said that an interest rate increase is data dependent but has also indi-cated that she expects to begin raising rates before the end of the year. The American currency was lower against the yen, as de-mand for the greenback came under pressure amid mount-ing speculation the Federal Reserve will hold back from raising interest rates this week. USD/JPY hit 120.09, the pair's lowest since September 10 and subsequently con-solidated at 120.26, sliding 0.29%.As against the euro, dol-lar was lower at 1.1300. The yen was higher against the euro, with EUR/JPY retreating 0.42% to 136.10. India’s current account deficit further contracted in the first quarter of 2015-16 as lower global crude oil prices helped rein in India’s import bill. In the April-June period, the current account deficit came in at $6.2 billion, or 1.2% of GDP, compared with $7.8 billion, or 1.6% of GDP, in the year-ago period


DAILY REPORT

15th

SEPT. 2015


CALL REPORT

S T O

PERFORMANCE UPDATES

Date Commodity/ Currency

Pairs Contract Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark

14/09/15 NCDEX DHANIYA OCT. BUY 11200 11225-11305 11173 NOT EXECUTED

14/09/15 NCDEX DHANIYA OCT. SELL 11050 11025-10945 11077 BOOKED FULL PROFIT

14/09/15 NCDEX GUARGUM OCT. BUY 9360 9410-9480 9300 NOT EXECUTED

14/09/15 NCDEX GUARGUM OCT. SELL 9040 8990-8920 9100 NOT EXECUTED

14/09/15 MCX GOLD OCT. BUY 26000 26080-26180 25900 BOOKED PROFIT

14/09/15 MCX GOLD OCT. SELL 25900 25820-25720 26000 NOT EXECUTED

14/09/15 MCX SILVER DEC. BUY 35100 35300-35600 34800 SL TRIGGERED

14/09/15 MCX SILVER DEC. SELL 34800 34600-34300 35100 BOOKED PROFIT

14/09/15 USD/INR SEPT. BUY 66.77 66.90-67.05 66.57 NOT EXECUTED

14/09/15 USD/INR SEPT. SELL 66.45 66.32-66.17 66.65 NOT EXECUTED

14/09/15 EUR/INR SEPT. BUY 75.40 75.55-75.75 75.20 BOOKED PROFIT

14/09/15 EUR/INR SEPT. SELL 75.09 74.94-74.74 75.29 NOT EXECUTED

Date Scrip

CASH/

FUTURE/

OPTION

Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark

14/09/15 NIFTY FUTURE BUY 7750 7850-8000 7600 BOOKED PROFIT

14/09/15 BATAINDIA FUTURE BUY 1000 1020-1040 980 NOT EXECUTED

14/09/15 CESC FUTURE SELL 500-505 490-480 510 SL TRIGGERED

14/09/15 BALAJITELE CASH BUY 81.70 83-85-87 79.90 BOOKED PROFIT


DAILY REPORT

15th

SEPT. 2015


NEXT WEEK'S U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

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Disclaimer

TIME REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL CONSENSUS

FORECAST PREVIOUS

MONDAY, SEP. 14

NONE SCHEDULED

TUESDAY, SEP. 15

8:30 AM RETAIL SALES AUG. 0.6%

8:30 AM RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS AUG 0.4%

8:30 AM EMPIRE STATE INDEX SEPT. -14.9

9:15 AM INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AUG. 0.6^

9:15 AM CAPACITY UTILIZATION AUG. 78.0%

10 AM BUSINESS INVENTORIES JULY 0.8%

WEDNESDAY, SEP. 16

8:30 AM CONSUMER PRICE INDEX AUG. 0.1%

8:30 AM CORE CPI AUG. 0.1%

10 AM HOME BUILDERS' INDEX SEPT. 61

THURSDAY, SEP. 17

8:30 AM WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS SEPT. 12 N/A N/A

8:30 AM HOUSING STARTS AUG. 1.21 MLN

8:30 AM BUILDING PERMITS AUG 1.13 MLN

8:30 AM CURRENT ACCOUNT 2Q -$113 BLN

10 AM PHILLY FED SEPT. 8.3

2 PM FOMC STATEMENT

2:30 PM JANET YELLEN PRESS CONFERENCE

FRIDAY, SEP. 18

10 AM LEADING INDICATORS AUG. -0.2%


Epic research special report of 15 sep 2015

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Transcript of Epic research special report of 15 sep 2015