EO Nashville Survey · Total Survey Participants •The EO and Catalyst-9 survey was released the...

EO Nashville Survey

Michael Burcham

[email protected]

Impact of COVID-19

As leaders, we must recognize that the business we were in no longer exists in its pre-COVID state.

To better understand the potential impact to small businesses in Middle Tennessee, we conducted a survey of businesses affiliated with Entrepreneurs Organization (EO).

On the following pages are our overall findings as well as the summary responses to the survey.

Best regards,

Michael [email protected]

http://michaelrburcham.com

Summary of FindingsSurvey of 197 Small Businesses in Middle Tennessee

Revenue Impact:

• 65% of all these small businesses were negatively impacted in March and April. • Over 30% have lost half or more of their revenues as compared to the same period in 2019.• Due to timing of billings and collections, an additional 12% of participants expect May and June revenues to be worse than

March & April.

Staffing Changes:

• Nearly 60% have either furloughed or laid off staff during March and April.• 21% of those participating in the survey indicated they have furloughed or laid off more than 75% of their staff.• Another 19% indicated that additional furloughs or staff reductions will likely occur once governmental funding expires in

June (PPP) if they do not see a significant improvement in revenues.• About half these firms had some staff in a work-from-home status pre-COVID. 68% of the participants expect to increase

their work-from-home staff rather than having those team members return to the work site.• Only 31% expect everyone to return to the worksite in their pre-COVID status.

Summary of FindingsSurvey of 197 Small Businesses in Middle Tennessee

Sheltering In Place and Survivability:

• 53% of survey participants felt they could survive 2020 with prolonged sheltering in place.• 19% of the participants felt they would only survive sheltering-in-place through May. • Another 25% felt their business could survive the sheltering-in-place through the summer, but not certain of their business

sustainability beyond the summer.• 58% of the Catalyst-9 group felt they could survive through the summer but were unsure beyond that.• The most “at risk” group in EO were those businesses with less than $5mm in revenue - 54% indicated they were confident

they could survive through the summer but were not certain of their business sustainability beyond the summer.

Top 5 Areas of Support DesiredSurvey of 197 Small Businesses in Middle Tennessee

Most Resilient Group The ”Messy” Middle Most at Risk Group

• Technology• E-Commerce & Digital Media• Business Services• Lawn Services• Warehousing• Logistics• Distribution• Security Services• Waste Disposal• Healthcare - Urgent &

Emergent• Manufacturing

• Healthcare - Elective • Real Estate• Construction• Marketing• Recruiting and Staffing• Law• Interior Design• Architecture• Education• Non-Profits• Barber• Child Care

• Hospitality• Entertainment and Music• Festivals and Events• Restaurants and Bars• Gyms & Spas• Senior Care Services• Investment Advisors


• 38% of the Catalyst participants lost 50% or more of their revenue in March and April.

• 24% overall lost 75% or more of their revenue in that time period.

• 68.5% expect 2020 to be a worse year financially than 2019.

• 54% expect revenues to fall by more than 25%.• 16.5% expect 2020 revenue to be down by 50% or

more.• This group was one of the most volatile in

“survivability” beyond the summer.

• This group was the 2nd most impacted EO group by COVID-19.

• 22% lost 25% - 50% of their revenues in March and April of 2020.

• 33.5% of this group lost 50% or more of their revenue during March and April.

• 27% of this group lost more than 75% of their revenue during March and April.

• For 2020, 60% Expect their revenues to decline by more than 25% in 2020.

Insights from Catalyst-9 Group Members with Revenue Less Than $2.5mm


• This group had the most negative impact of revenue due to COVID-19.

• 25% of this group lost 25% - 50% of their revenues in March and April.



• This group projects the most negative outlook for 2020 with 18% expecting revenues to be off by 50% or more.

• 17% of this group lost 25% - 50% of their revenues in March and April.



• For 2020, 28% expect their revenues to be flat or up over 2019.

• For 2020, 72% expect some type of revenue decline revenue for 2020, but the majority think it will be less than 25%.

• 28% expect their 2020 revenues to decline by more than 25% but less than 50%.

Members with Revenues $2.5mm - $5mm Members with Revenue $5mm - $7.5mm


• This group seems to have weathered the COVID-19 period the best.

• 57.5% of this group reported revenues either up or flat in March and April.

• 14% of this group lost 50% or more of their revenue during March and April

• Only 7% of this group lost more than 75% of their revenue during March and April

• This group has the most optimistic outlook for 2020 -43% expect revenues to be flat or up.

• This group also reports having the longest runway for sustainability.

• This group weathered the COVID-19 period the second best.

• 36.5% of this group reported revenues either up or flat in March and April.

• 13.5% lost 25% - 50% of their revenues in March and April.

• 16% of this group lost 50% or more of their revenue during March and April

• 11.5% of this group lost more than 75% of their revenue during March and April

• For 2020, 72.5% expect some revenue decline in 2020 as compared to 2019.

• 38% expect their 2020 revenues to be down by more than 25%.

Members with Revenues $7.5mm - $10mm Members with Revenue > $10 mm


1. Post-COVID market trends for my industry2. Leading in times of crisis3. Developing a new business model for this “low-

touch” era.4. Tools to determine when and how customers will re-

engage.5. Re-opening staff and customer safety6. Staffing models and workforce trends7. Access to alternative financing

1. Leading in times of crisis2. Post-COVID market trends for my industry3. Developing a new business model for this “low-

touch” era4. Financial modeling for new pricing and distribution5. Access to alternative financing6. Tools to determine when and how customers will re-

engage.7. Re-opening staff and customer safety

Catalyst-9 Participants EO Member Participants

EO Member, 156

Catalyst 9, 41

EO Member Catalyst 9

Total Survey Participants

• The EO and Catalyst-9 survey was released the last week of April to all EO Members and Catalyst-9 Participants.

• There were 197 individuals who participated in the survey:

⎯ 41 Participants from Catalyst-9⎯ 156 EO Member Participants

Individual responses were kept anonymous. This summary report provides a summary of answers to each of the survey questions.

Survey InformationEO Members and Catalyst-9 Participants

Business Services (All Types), 30

Healthcare, 20

Real Estate (All Types), 15

Retail (Traditional, Restaurant, All Types), 14

Construction, 14Media, Marketing, Advertising,

Graphic Design, 12

Technology, e-Commerce, 12

Hospitality, 12

Entertainment, Festivals, Events, Tours, 11

Financial Services (All Types), 8

Manufacturing, 6

Recruiting and Staffing, Human Capital, 5

Wholesale, Distribution, 5

Salon, Skin Care, Spa, Barber, 4

Fitness, Recreation, 4

Security Services, Alarms, 3Law, 3

Transportation and Logistics, 3Waste Management, 3

Interior Design, Architecture, Engineering, 3

Lawn, Landscape, Other Home Services, 3 Other, 7

Note: Other includes Education, Parking, Child Care, Non-Profit, Publishing, Insurance, and School Uniforms.

Industries RepresentedSurvey Participants

Company Annual Revenue Pre-COVID Average

Note: 195 participants answered this question. 2 did not.

Compared to the Same Period Last Year Impact of COVID-19 or Tornado on Company Revenues

Selected Quotes and Comments:

• March 2019 revenue was $3000 higher than March 2020. April 2020 has exceeded expectations!

• Tornado damage to industrial parks in Wilson County made our warehouse space more valuable/in demand.

• We have been closed since Mid-March (25).• Retail was down to $0. Software was down 50%+. • We are in the convention and meetings industry, we were the first to get shut

down and will be the last to restart, we've lost 100% of our revenue• We are a membership-based business and we have only had 4 members cancel

their membership due to COVID-19. Our largest impact on revenue has been in growing our memberships and event revenue.

• We have lost 90% - 100% of our revenue (35).• We manage 31 short-term rentals/Airbnb's. Bookings disappeared because travel

halted.• Our AR is normally 60+ days so the number we focus on is new sales. The new

sales tap has been turned off; so revenue will dry up unless sales start again.• So far COVID has not affected revenue.• With a few days left in the month, we're closer to 60% than we are 75%.• A good portion of our revenue came from consulting on weddings, events,

creating video content for social media, etc. it’s way down.• Our real revenue up/down determination will be in May when we collect the rent.• While our current revenue is flat, we were scheduled to have multiple project large

projects start in the April through June time frame that are being pushed back or cancelled. The impact on my business will be delayed.

• My sales are trending down fast.• My business is dependent on races like marathons and triathlons. If those are

shut down, we lose 80%+ revenue.• 100% down. business are closed and badly damaged. yes, effected by both the

Tornado and the Virus.• We have gone from $340K per month to zero.• March and April are not going to be as bad as June and July. We are expecting a

50% loss of revenue during this time.


How Many People Did You Employ Full and Part Time Pre-Tornado and Pre-COVID


Workforce Modifications Due to Tornados, COVID-19 and/or Shelter in Place


• Pushing this decision forward - utilizing PPP $ right now to push the decision down the road 2 months.

• Froze our IRA matching.• We received PPP $ so no one was laid off - yet…• Gave everyone 50% furloughs for 4 weeks. Got PPP $ so brought

everyone back last Monday. If business doesn’t pick up by end of PPP timeframe, further changes will likely happen.

• I’ll be re-evaluating after PPP - If there’s no second round of money, we’ll furlough more staff.

• We furloughed 210 employees and kept 10 - the 10 all took pay cuts.• Most of my team are 1099s - that has affected well over 50 people.

They have been completely out of work.• Everyone is working remotely (25)• I’ve done a little of it all - Did some layoffs, some furloughs, some work

from home, some pay cuts. • We cut all the part timers, kept the full-time folks at reduced pay and

work from home (3).• We are cutting staff as fast as we can and backstopping with PPP

money for the ones we are keeping.• I’ve laid off all 36 employees.• I’ve been lucky - kept everyone so far - working from home.• Eliminated about 50% of our team.• I’ve done some of all the options on the chart.• All my team were independent contractors - they are simply not

working (4).


Remote or Work from Home Staff


How Long Can Your Business Survive The Current "Sheltering in Place?"


• We are doing our best to be positive.• As long as clients keep paying, we’ll be ok. Most are asking for deep discounts.• Fingers crossed things don’t get worse in the economy - we are OK for now.• With the furloughs and everyone taking reduced pay, we’re ok for the year.• We are an essential business, so we are still operating.• We can provide most of our services working from home.• The long AR nature of our business has helped in the short-term with cash flow.• We have enough reserve to last about 6 months.• We can cover our expenses through May with our PPP loan - not sure about what

happens in June or July for us.• Maybe…. We’ll make it.• My bigger worry is what will our customers do… Will they return?• We can continue but we are making much less money.• We will have to cut salaries again and do more layoffs if work doesn’t pick up.• We are Ok until mid-July right now.• We have completely changed our marketing - that is helping.• I am confident we will survive this one way or another - What I’m not so sure

about is what that looks like vs. what our hopes had been for the business.• We are running out of cash. Didn’t get the PPP.• If tenants pay their rent, we’ll be ok. If not…• We have low fixed costs. I can put the business in hibernation until the economic

situation improves.• I am hoping we can open in June - but that doesn’t mean people will travel so I’m

concerned.• I feel like 2020 is a complete loss.• I’m just hoping to get enough business to pay the bills and make it to next year.• We need revenues to return in June. PPP runs out in May.• Our financial forecast indicates we are OK till October.• We will have to lay off additional staff to survive through the summer.


Current Revenue Impact: Catalyst MembersNotes:

• Catalyst -9 Members responses to revenue as compared to the same period last year:

⎯ 27% - Reported revenue is either up or flat as compared to 2019.

⎯ 13.5% - Reported revenue is down by less than 25% as compared to 2019.

⎯ 21.5% - Reported revenue is down by more than 25% but less than 50% as compared to 2019.

⎯ 14% - Reported revenue is down by more than 50% but less than 50% as compared to 2019.

⎯ 24% - Reported revenues were down by more than 75% as compared to 2019.

Question 4:

Compared to the same period last year (March and April), what impact has COVID-19 had on your company revenues?

38% of Catalyst-9 survey participants reported their 2020 revenues for March and April were down more than 50% as

compared to the same period for 2019.

Revenue Outlook for 2020: Catalyst MembersNotes:

• Catalyst-9 Members responses to how they expect revenues to be impacted for all of 2020:

⎯ 32% - Expect their 2020 revenue to be either flat or up (10% expect it to be up, 22% expect revenues to be flat).

⎯ 14% - Expect their 2020 revenues to be down by less than 25%

⎯ 38% - Expect their 2020 revenues to be down by more than 25% but less than 50%.

⎯ 16% - Expect their 2020 revenues to be down by more than 50%.

Question 5:

What overall impact do you anticipate COVID-19 having on 2020 total revenues?

54% of Catalyst-9 survey participants expect their total 2020 revenues will be down more than 25% or more as

compared to the same period for 2019.

Current Revenue Impact: EO MembersSegmented by Size of Firm (Based on 2019 Revenue)

Notes:

• EO Members responses (all EO survey participants combined) to revenue as compared to the same period last year:

⎯ 23% - Reported revenue is up as compared to the same period in 2019.

⎯ 14% - Reported revenue is flat as compared to the same period in 2019.

⎯ 14% - Reported revenue is down by less than 25% as compared to the same period in 2019.

⎯ 20% - Reported revenue is down by more than 25% but less than 50% as compared to the same period in 2019.

⎯ 29% - Reported revenues were down by more than 50% as compared to the same period in 2019.

Question 4:

Compared to the same period last year (March and April), what impact has COVID-19 had on your company revenues?

From $1mm to $2.5mm

From $2.5mm to $5mm

From $5mm to $7.5mm

From $7.5mm to $10mm

More than $10mm

Revenue Outlook for 2020: EO Members Segmented by Size of Firm (Based on 2019 Revenue)

Notes:

• EO Members responses (all EO survey participants combined) to their expectations of COVID impact on revenue for all of 2020.

⎯ 17% - Report they expect revenue will be up for 2020.

⎯ 11% - Report they expect revenue to be flat for all of 2020.

⎯ 26% - Report they expect revenue is down by less than 25% for all of 2020.

⎯ 33% - Report they expect revenue to be down by more than 25% but less than 50% for all of 2020.

⎯ 13% - Report they expect revenue to be down by more than 50% for all of 2020.

Question 5:


From $1mm to $2.5mm

From $2.5mm to $5mm

From $5mm to $7.5mm

From $7.5mm to $10mm

More than $10mm

Business Services

Healthcare

Real Estate

Notes:

• EO Members responses - The Top 3 Participant Categories - to their expectations of COVID impact on revenue for all of 2020.

Business Services:

⎯ 35% - Report they expect revenue will be flat or up for 2020.

⎯ 45% - Report they expect revenues to be down 25% or more.

Healthcare:

⎯ 20% - Report they expect revenue to be flat or up for 2020.

⎯ 55% - Report they expect revenues to be down 25% for more.

Real Estate:

⎯ 31% - Report they expect revenue will be flat or up for 2020.

⎯ 38% - Report they expect revenues to be down 25% for more.

Revenue Outlook for 2020: Top 3 Participant GroupsBusiness Services. Healthcare. Real Estate.

Question 5:


Notes:

• EO Members responses - The most pessimistic participant group - to their expectations of COVID impact on revenue for all of 2020.

Hospitality | Restaurant | Bar:

⎯ 45% - Report that they expect revenue will be down by more than 25% but less than 50% in 2020.

⎯ 47% - Report that they expect revenue will be down by more than 50% but less than 75% in 2020.

⎯ 8% - Report that they expect revenue will be down by more than 75% in 2020.

Revenue Outlook for 2020: Most Pessimistic GroupHospitality | Restaurant | Bar

Question 5:


Notes:

• EO Members responses - The most optimistic participant group - to their expectations of COVID impact on revenue for all of 2020.

Technology and e-Commerce:

⎯ 15% - Report that they expect revenue will be up in 2020.

⎯ 23% - Report that they expect revenue will be flat in 2020.

⎯ 46% - Report that they expect revenue will be down by less than 25% in 2020.

⎯ 16% - Report that they expect revenue will be down by less by more than 25%(but less than 50%) in 2020.

Revenue Outlook for 2020: Most Optimistic GroupTechnology and e-Commerce

Question 5:


How Long Can Your Business Survive The Current "Sheltering in Place?"

Notes:

• Catalyst -9 Members are the most vulnerable group within the survey:

⎯ 38% report having enough cash to make it through May 2020.

⎯ 20% report having enough cash to make it through the Summer, 2020.

⎯ The above together represent 58% of the survey participants from this group.

• EO Members with annual revenues of more than $2.5 mm but less than $5.0 were the next most vulnerable.

• Collectively, those businesses with < $5.0 mm in revenue (134 businesses or 68% of total respondents) are at risk in these ways:

⎯ 35 businesses (26%) in this group indicate they are OK through May but uncertain beyond that point.

⎯ 37 businesses ( 28%) in this group indicate they are OK through the Summer but uncertain beyond that point.

⎯ The two categories above represent 72 participant businesses (54% of those businesses with less than $5mm in revenue).

Less than $1mm

More than $1mm, less than $2.5mm

More than $2.5mm, less than $5mm

More than $5mm, less than $7.5mm

More than $7.5mm, less than $10mm

Greater than $10mm

Did You Apply for Government Aid Disaster Loan, PPP, etc.) If "Yes" did you receive?


Responses are through 04.29.20, some of those “waiting” may have received funding since the survey.


• Due to the restrictions and the fact that all my houorerly employees will make more on unemployment it is making it hard to bring them back thus making difficult to use the funds properly to get the loan forgiven. I won’t use it unless its forgiven as i dont want the debt to pay employees just to not work. we have no business.

• We received funding in the 2nd Round.• PPO approved just yesterday.• We received both EIDL and PPP (8)• No support as of 04.27.20• I reapplied with another bank for the “second round” - waiting to hear.• Hoping for funding on second round of PPP- I applied the first day the

first thing in the morning with a big bank who didn’t get my application in before the money ran out. No disaster loan yet - I applied for it late. Things are financially terrible right now but I’m hopeful that things will improve soon.

• Applied for PPP and community grant - waiting to hear.• Smaller banks seemed to do better for their clients with PPP.• We applied for and received PPP (111).• Did not apply (34).• Round one money ran out before we finished our application. Have

applied for second round.• Received PPP, still waiting on EIDL (6).

Support Needed to ”Re-Launch" Your BusinessAreas Where Additional Insight, Help or Support to Re-Launch Would be Helpful.

0 50 100 150 200

Post-COVID Market Trends for My Industry

Confirming Customer Re-Engagement

Developing a New Business Model

Staffing Models and Workforce Trends

Supply Chain Considerations

Re-Opening Staff and Customer Safety Plans

Financial Modeling for New Pricing or Distribution

Access to Alternative Financing

Leading in Times of Crisis

I Need Help with This Share Articles or Insights


• Honestly, all this would be a big help. • Please offer any tools you can. Especially the

articles.• I’d like help thinking about how I parlay our

successful response to COVID into long-term gains for the business.

• Anything you can share on Google Ad Words -I’ve used in the past, but the model has changed, and I need to get up to speed.

• Anything about financing is always helpful.• Any assistance in the security area would be

great.• Loved the presentation you shared today on

LinkedIn - “How Will the World Be Different Post COVID-19.” Thank you.

• Any data on market trends in my industry would be so good to see (19).

• I’d love to read something on leading in crisis -or prolonged crisis - maybe we do a seminar just on this?

• More on leading in crisis would be good.• Got any information on scenario planning?• Data on the 12-month outlook would be great.• Looking for anything to help our team “re-

group” - we’ve lost about half the team and most people are anxious and afraid.

• Got anything on how to be productive in times of crisis?

• I could benefit from almost everything you’ve listed (32).

Tools & Support Needed: Catalyst MembersNotes:

• When asked about the types of tools and support needed to re-launch their businesses, the Top 4 answers from the Catalyst-9 group were:

1. Post COVOD market trends for my industry.

2. Leading in times of crisis.

3. Developing a new business model for this “low-touch” era.

4. Tools to determine when and how customers will re-engage.

• The tools that were of the lowest interest to Catalyst-9 members:

⎯ Supply chain considerations

⎯ Re-opening staff and customer safety policies and plans

⎯ Financial modeling for new pricing and distribution

Question 12:

Most every business will be doing some form of "re-launch" as we emerge from this shelter-at-home phase of this pandemic.

What are the areas where additional insight, help or support to re-launch would be helpful.

Pick any that apply to you.

Tools & Support Needed: EO MembersNotes:

• When asked about the types of tools and support needed to re-launch their businesses, the Top 4 answers from the EO group were:

1. Leading in times of crisis

2. Post COVOD market trends for my industry.

3. Developing a new business model for this “low-touch” era.

4. Financial modeling for new pricing and distribution

• The tools that were of the lowest interest to EO members:

⎯ Access to alternative financing

⎯ Supply chain considerations

⎯ Staffing models and workforce trends

Question 12:

Most every business will be doing some form of "re-launch" as we emerge from this shelter-at-home phase of this pandemic.

What are the areas where additional insight, help or support to re-launch would be helpful.

Pick any that apply to you.

What Are You Reading for InspirationPage 1 of 2

• I’m doing a lot of Zoom• Cured by Dr. Jeffery Rediger, MD (Stories of Medical Miracles)• James Boyd and his OODA Loop framework• Entreleadership podcast• Infinite Game by Simon Sinek• Daily Stoic by Ryan Holiday (4)• Bible (6)• The Psalms• I’m Meditating• The First Tycoon: The Epic Life of Cornelius Vanderbilt• Titan: The Life of John D. Rockefeller, Andrew Carnegie (in that order)• The Millionaire Real Estate Investor• Your Best Year Ever by Michael Hyatt• The Motive by Patrick Lencioni• I’m starting a Six Sigma book• Strategic Coach Resources, Ozark• I’m exercising, praying, spending time with nature and my family• Manifest Your Destiny by Wayne Dyer (2)• StoryBrand (Conference and Book) (8)• The Power of Habit• Untamed by Glennon Doyle• Awaken the Giant Within by Anthony Robbins• Measure What Matters• Launching a Venture - Our Catalyst Book by Burcham (9)• A Lapsed Anarchist’s Approach to the Power of Beliefs in Business

• The Plague by Albert Camus• Wall Street Journal (3)• The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History• The Secret• The Business of Expertise by David Baker• Dhandapani App - Mindfulness (4)• Becoming Supernatural• Lunch with Lucy by Sherry Deutschmann (3)• Life Will See You Know by Gavin Oattes• Traction (2)• My Forum (5)• Michael’s materials he has shared with us (11)• The Economist (3)• The London Times (2)• Thich Nhat Hanh Stoic Philosophy (2)• Stories about American POW’s in Vietnam• Flash Boys• Richest Man in Babylon• Articles, News Stories, Business Journals (4)• Profits First (2)• Tiger King• Principles by Ray Dalio• Love is the Drug by Alaya Dawn Johnson• Leaders Eat Last by Simon Sinek• The Righteous Mind by Jonathan Haidt

What Are You Reading for InspirationPage 2 of 2

• Marcus Aurelius “Meditations” (2)• Gary Vee Podcast• The Adventurer’s Son by Roman Dial• The 5 Dysfunctions of a Team• Hidden Valley Road• Brene Brown (6)• The Diary of a Young Girl by Anne Frank• Documentaries: Heal and Forks over Knives• Long bike rides and walks• The Rise of Theodore Roosevelt by Edmund Morris• Forged in Crisis by Nancy Koehn• How I Built This Podcast• Daily Devotionals• Seven Spiritual Laws of Success by Deepak Chopra• Never Split the Difference by Chris Voss• What It Takes by Stephen Schwarzman• Radical Candor by Kim Scott• Finding Meaning by David Kessler• Revenue Harvest by Nigel Green• Battle Ready by Tom Clancy• Articles about Winston Churchill• The Splendid and the Vile by Erik Larson• Watching ”The Originals”• Franklin and Winston by John Meacham

• The Compound Effect by Darren Hardy• New York Times (4)• Medium’s Better Human’s Channel• Vitamin B for Business by Andy Bailey (3)• Reprogramming the American Dream by Kevin Scott• Peter Diamandis• I’m reading wine labels• Guided Meditations or Meditating (5)

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