Envisioning and Materialising Energy Transitions: A ......Envisioning and Materialising Energy...
Transcript of Envisioning and Materialising Energy Transitions: A ......Envisioning and Materialising Energy...
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Envisioning and Materialising Energy Transitions: A comparison of public and policy system scenarios
Catherine Butler & Christina Demski
Karlsruhe, 10th October 2013
Collaborators: Karen Parkhill, Alexa Spence, Nick Pidgeon
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Click to add title Overview
• Project Introduction - Public Engagement with
Energy Futures
• UK Energy Policy Visions and Scenarios
• Public perspectives, visions and scenarios
• The importance of public values
• Comparing similarities and differences
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Project Background
Multiple long-term national policy goals bring imperatives to transform the energy system
• Climate change, Energy security, Affordability, Environment
Publics are deeply implicated in how energy systems are configured Scenarios have limited social dimensions
• Simplified assumptions about public perspectives • Lack of empirical research
Public engagement with whole energy system change
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Project Overview
WP 1: Scenarios
• Scenario Analysis
• Expert Consultation & Material Development
• Conducted Jan-June 2011
WP 2: Qualitative
• Deliberating Energy System Scenarios & Trade-offs
• 6 Workshops, UK
• Conducted June – Oct 2011
WP 3: Quantitative
• National (GB) Survey: Attitudes toward Whole Energy System Transformations
• Conducted online 2-12th 2012 August
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Methods Overview
WP 2 Deliberative Workshops
6 Workshops (n=68)
• Different UK locations
Diverse sample
WP 3 National Online Survey
Nationally representative for GB (n=2,441)
Core samples in Wales & Scotland
Theoretical sub-sampling
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Energy Futures for 2050 –
UK Policy Perspectives
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“Energy Futures”
Cost effective
Whole energy system transformations...
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Click to add title UK Energy Policy Context
Core MARKAL scenario > 2050:
Supply • Nuclear (33 GW) • Fossil fuels with CCS (29 GW) • Renewable (incl. bioenergy) (45 GW )
Demand
• 50% reductions in final energy consumption on 2011 levels
• Heat pumps and heat networks, energy efficiency (insulation), battery electric and fuel cell vehicles, reduced use of private vehicles
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Click to add title UK Energy Policy Context
• Gas expected to remain dominant for heating until 2030 (subsequent transitions to heat pumps and networks)
• Gas unabated until 2030 (replacing coal) then with CCS
• Strategy aims to reassure investors + improves context for unconventional gas (and oil)
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Click to add title UK Policy Context
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Energy Futures for 2050 –
Public Perspectives
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2.34
2.2
2.17
2.12
1.9
1.89
1.88
1.87
1.86
1.8
1.58
1.57
1.2
1.11
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Home effic.
Business greenness
Other Renewables
Wind- sea
Biofuels
How we Travel
Transport fuel
Fossil fuel reduction
Heating fuel
Wind-land
Home temp.
CCS
Nuclear
Manufacturing Growth
1
0.96
0.96
0.94
0.93
0.93
0.9
0.88
0.87
0.83
0.83
0.83
0.8
0.57
0 0.5 1 1.5
Nuclear
CCS
Wind-land
Home temp.
Biofuels
Manufacturing Growth
Heating fuel
Transport fuel
How we Travel
Wind- sea
Other Renewables
Business
Home effic.
Fossil fuel reductionMean inclusion level
Standard deviations
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0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5M
ean
incl
usi
on
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Findings: Energy Supply
Strong commitment to renewable forms of energy production, and a corresponding shift away from fossil fuels.
Nearly 80% include high levels of
renewables including offshore wind in their energy pathways.
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Findings: Energy Demand
People want to see a reduction in energy demand and a corresponding increase in energy efficiency
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Findings: Energy Demand
Reducing energy demand and increasing energy efficiency
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The importance of values
Examining what UNDERLIES preferences and views
• Public perceptions and acceptability as highly complex
• Preferences may shift and change
• Especially important for topics of low-salience in everyday life, new and emergent issues, and views that are not yet fully formed.
Formulation of a preference or perception occurs through connecting up new information and experiences with existing values and ideas
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Solar Energy - example
“RENEWABLE” “CLEAN”
“FAIR” “JUST”
It’s not about the technology, it’s about the values
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Public VALUES
Reducing the use of finite resources
Reducing overall levels of energy use
Environmental protection
Naturalness and
Nature
Avoiding waste
Efficient
Capturing opportunities
Availability and Affordability
Reliability
Safety
Autonomy and Freedom
Choice and Control
Social Justice
Fairness, Honesty & Transparency
Long-term trajectories
Interconnected
Improvement and quality
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Efficient and not Wasteful
Avoiding waste and waste products, being more efficient and capturing opportunities
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Click to add title Just and Fair
Being mindful of implications for people’s abilities to live healthy lives; a system that is fair and inclusive, where actors are honest and transparent.
- Social, environmental, financial impacts
- Vulnerable groups
- Intra- and intergenerational justice
Social Justice
Fair distribution of cost and benefits
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Click to add title Just and Fair
Being mindful of implications for people’s abilities to live healthy lives; a system that is fair and inclusive, where actors are honest and transparent.
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Pragmatism
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Comparing Energy Futures for 2050 – Public and Policy
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Drivers for Transitions
Cost effective
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Drivers for Transitions - Values
Reducing the use of finite resources
Reducing overall levels of energy use
Environment and
Nature
Efficient and Not-Wasteful
Secure and Stable
Autonomy and Power
Just and Fair
Process and
Change
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Click to add title System Elements
Similarities • Public and policy
scenarios move toward high renewables.
• High reductions in demand facilitated through state-led initiatives in public transport and low carbon vehicles, and efficiency and low carbon heat.
Differences • Relatively high levels
of fossil fuels with CCS remain in 2050.
• Differences for nuclear • Bioenergy plays a
significant role in policy scenarios as part of RETs.
• Reductions in demand less innovative in policy – little focus on regulation or incentives.
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Click to add title Final Reflections
• Importance of moving beyond perceptions and looking at underlying concerns across whole systems
• Further development of comparative analysis – more specific policy scenarios
• Integrating public values with scenarios - strengthening socio-political contexts for scenarios
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Click to add title Thank you
UK Energy Research Centre
+44 (0)20 7594 1574, www.ukerc.ac.uk
Collaborators: Karen Parkhill, Alexa Spence, Nick Pidgeon