Envision Tomorrow Updates and indicators
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Transcript of Envision Tomorrow Updates and indicators
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ENVISION TOMORROWUPDATES AND INDICATORS
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What is Envision Tomorrow?
Suite of planning tools: GIS Analysis Tools Prototype Builder
Return on Investment (ROI) model Scenario Builder
Extension for ArcGIS Performance Models
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Why Use Scenario Planning?
Weigh choices against consequences
Test policy options quickly Prepare for uncertainty Develop strategies to
optimize outcomes
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Scenario Building Process
Create Building & Development
Types
Scenario Development
EvaluationBaseline Analysis
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Regional “Balance” Analysis
Jobs-Housing balance impacts transportation
GIS tool to identify imbalanced areas Candidates for detailed
scenarios
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Redevelopment Readiness Analysis A tool to assess which parcels within a study area
may be candidates for redevelopment in the short term.
Two methods: Low Hanging Fruit: isolate the bottom quartile of total
value per acre (land + improvement) Timing: estimate the parcels that are ready today, or
within 5-10 years based on the age of the structure and the value of the land and a depreciation schedule.
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Building-Level Financial Analysis Envision Tomorrow
Prototype Builder
Estimate ROI (Return on Investment) based on local costs and rents/sales prices
Gap Financing Tools
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Test Financial Performance of Zoning Alternatives
Baseline Optimal ChangeHeight 4 Stories 6 Stories +2Parking Spaces 127 115 -10%Land Used 43,000 Square Ft 43,000 Square Ft 0%Density 31 DU / Acre 63 DU / Acre +103%Floor Area Ratio 1.1 2.0 +79%Project Value $17.3 Million $23.5 Million +35%Unit Cost $519,272 $369,590 -29%
Baseline4 story Mixed Use with existing parking
Optimal6 story Mixed Use with lower parking requirements
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Create Prototype Buildings
Why start with buildings? Easily modeled & lots of existing data
Density and Design Rents and Sales Prices Costs and Affordability Energy and Water Use Fiscal Impacts
Physical Form Height Unit sizes Parking configurations
Financial Reality Rents / sales prices Construction costs Land costs
Feasible?
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Development Type MixA Variety of Buildings, Streets and Amenities Create a “Place”
Town Center
Medium-Density
Residential
Single-Family Residential
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Real-time Scenario Building and Evaluation
Select
Paint
See Changes in Real Time
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Envision Tomorrow Scenario Indicators Land consumption & impact
Vacant and redevelopment lands Measure development impact to sensitive
lands (user defined sensitive areas) Infill and Redevelopment
Percentage of growth on vacant lands or accommodated through infill
Housing Unit type mix, FAR, density, tenure Cost and affordability (rents / sales prices) Match to estimated future housing
demand Employment
Industry mix, FAR and density Employment wage
Jobs-Housing Balance
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Envision Tomorrow Scenario Indicators Square footage of new
buildings by type Land use mix (entropy score)
Value of new buildings Sales and property tax revenues Value of required subsidy
Household and Population Population and density Average household size Average household income
Based on new housing costs
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Envision Tomorrow Scenario Indicators Parking spaces, area and costs Lot coverage and impervious
surface Private landscaping and open
space Estimated new street
characteristics New street length Network and intersection
density
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Building-Level Sustainability Indicators Building energy use Carbon emissions from
energy use Landscaping water
consumption Internal building water
consumption Solid waste generated
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Fiscal Impact Modeling A Modified Version of the Federal “FIT”
Fiscal Impact Model
Estimate and compare county and municipal revenues and costs from scenarios
Uses building values and infrastructure costs from Envision Tomorrow to capture explicit differences in revenues and costs from different land use types
Indicators: Revenue Cost Ratio New Revenues (Property, Income and
Sales Taxes) New Costs (Infrastructure, O&M and
Services)
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Revenues vs. Expenditures
Net Annual Revenue
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Proximity Measures (Walkable Access) Calculate the
proportion of development in a scenario that is within walking distance to any amenity, such as a school or park
Example: 50% of residents are
within a 10 minute walk to a park
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AffordabilityHousing + Transportation + Energy Costs
Assess trade-offs Trade higher housing costs for lower
transportation costs?
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Shared Parking Opportunity
Increases in walking combined with mixing uses presents an opportunity for shared parking
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Transportation Indicators Household Vehicle Miles
Traveled Trips by Mode
Auto Transit Walk Bike
Cost of Transportation (Auto and Transit)
Health Benefits of Increased Walking
Changes is Transportation Air Pollutants
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Household Travel App
Predicts travel behavior based on land use variables
Household VMT
Auto trips Walk trips Transit trips Bike trips
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70 Output Fields Calculatedfor Each “Neighborhood” Boundary
Variable GIS Field NameHousehold
Variables
Household Size TOT_AVG_HH_SIZE
Household Income TOT_AVG_HH_INC
Number of Employed Workers in the Household TOT_AVG_HH_WORKERS
Accessibility Variab
les
Activity Density within ¼, ½, and 1 milesACTDENQTRMIACTDENHALFMIACTDEN1MI
Job-Population Balance within ¼, ½, and 1 milesJOBPOPBALQTRMIJOBPOPBALHALFMIJOBPOPBAL1MI
Land Use Entropy (Mix) within ¼, ½, and 1 milesENTROPYQTRMIENTROPYHALFMIENTROPY1MI
Percent of Regional Employees/Jobs Accessible within a 10, 20 and 30 Minute Auto Trip
PCTREGEMP10MINAPCTREGEMP20MINAPCTREGEMP30MINA
Percent of Regional Employees/Jobs Accessible within a 30 Minute Transit Trip PCTREGEMP30MINT
Intersection Density within ¼, ½, and 1 milesINTDENQTRMIINTDENHALFMIINTDEN1MI
Percent of 4-way Intersections within ¼, ½, and 1 milesPCT4WAYINTQTRMIPCT4WAYINTHALFMIPCT4WAYINT1MI
Transit Stop Density within ¼, ½, and 1 milesTRANSSTOPDENQTRMITRANSSTOPDENHALFMITRANSSTOPDEN1MI
Rail Stops within a ½ mile RAILTRANSSTOPHALFMI
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Activity Density (Jobs + Pop) / Developed Area
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Employment Access Within 10 minute auto trip
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Job Population Balance1-ABS(EMP-0.2*POP)/(EMP+0.2*POP)
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Intersection DensityWithin a quarter mile
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Percent 4-Way IntersectionsWithin a quarter mile
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Transit Stop DensityWithin a quarter mile
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Rail Stop DensityWithin a quarter mile
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Land Use MixWithin a quarter mile
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HH VMT
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Vehicle Trips
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Walk Trips
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Bike Trips
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Transit Trips
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Web-based ET+In Development
As easy as Google Maps
No costly licenses or fast computers required for users
Many uses: Real-time zoning
administration Direct local feedback
on forecasts or plans Live workshops with
technical audience Scenario development
on mobile deviceshttp://et.tacc.utexas.edu/etmap.html