Environmental threats

1 – Environmental Threats1 – Environmental Threats

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Environmental threatsEnvironmental threats

The Sustainability Problem, The Sustainability Problem, Environmental Impact of Economic Environmental Impact of Economic

Activities, The Nature of Environmental Activities, The Nature of Environmental Threats, Climate ChangeThreats, Climate Change


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The Sustainability Problem, The Sustainability Problem, Environmental Impact of Economic Environmental Impact of Economic

Activities, The Nature of Environmental Activities, The Nature of Environmental Threats, Climate ChangeThreats, Climate Change

Environment and Environment and ClimateClimate

1.1 Environment and Climate1.1 Environment and Climate


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• The Sustainability Problem• The Nature of Environmental Threats• Current Global Environmental Threats• The Challenge of Climate Change

Contents



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The Sustainability Problem (1)

Development involves a progressive transformation of economy and society. A development path that is sustainable in a physical sense could theoretically be pursued even in a rigid social and political setting. But physical sustainability cannot be secured unless development policies pay attention to such considerations as changes in access to resources and in the distribution of costs and benefits. Even the narrow notion of physical sustainability implies a concern for social equity between generations, a concern that must logically be extended to equity within each generation.

Economic sustainability

Environmental sustainability

Social sustainability

WCED Our Common Future



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Planet Profit

People

Decisions

inte

rdep

ende

nce

interdependence

interdependence

Sustainability: sectoral aspects

Sustainability: sectoral aspects



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Sustainability: temporal aspects

Sustainability: temporal aspects

2008 2009 2025 …??

…Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs …

WCED Our Common Future



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We want to sustain ‘people, planet, profit’ &

We want economic growth

But…

There are:• Environmental limits to growth• Social limits to growth


Limits to economic growth??

Question for Discussion…

Question for Discussion…



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Whatever the outcomes of our discussion might be, finding an optimal balance between ‘people, planet, profit’ is a complex task.

In this lecture, we pay attention to the planet-profit interdependence, with special concern for the ‘planet’:

a. Environmental impact of economic activity

b. Characterisation of environmental threats



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Environmental Impact of Economic Activity (1)



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Environmental Impact of Economic Activity (2)

P : Increasing population

A : Affluence economic growth in developed and developing countries (units: $, GDP/capita, € etc.)

T : Technology material use, resource consumption and waste generation per unit production (units: mass)

Population of the world, 1950-2050

focus



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…’Technology’ imposes threats on the environment by inserting and extracting materials:

• Pollution to…Fresh AirFresh WaterSoil

• Exhaustion of Natural Capital from…AirWaterSoil

The Nature of Environmental Threats (1)

Pollution

Natural Capital

interdependence



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• Pollution problems depend on:• Environmental impact potential of materials

• Spatial scale of impact• Damage potential (severity of hazards)• Degree of exposure• Remediation and reversibility time

• Quantity of materials used (throughput)

• Exhaustion problems depend on:• Current use of natural capital &• Future availability


throughput

hazard

High level of concern

Pollution from materials perspective



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Environmental threats occur at different scales:

• Global threats

• Regional threats

• Local threats




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Climate Change Ozone Depletion Exhaustion of Natural Resources Sea level rise Desertification Erosion Loss of biodiversity Destruction natural habitats Etc.

Current Environmental Threats

Global, regional and local threats are connected



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The severe characteristics of Climate Change:• Global environmental threat• Attributable to economic activities• Caused by enhanced Greenhouse Gas Emissions that

accumulate in the atmosphere

And…the large variety and scale of impact categories:• Human health • Ecosystems• Sea level rise• Socio-economic equity

The Challenge of Climate Change (1)

A

B



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And…the future time scale of Climate Change impacts (emissions of today are the problems of tomorrow)

• Climate Change is a serious threat to sustainability • Climate Change is a big challenge to our society• We need to act TODAY

The Challenge of Climate Change (2)

C

A B C+ ++



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Global Environmental Global Environmental ThreatsThreats

Climate Change, Ozone Climate Change, Ozone Depletion, Exhaustion of Natural Depletion, Exhaustion of Natural

ResourcesResources

1.2 Global Environmental Threats1.2 Global Environmental Threats


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• Current Global Environmental Threats• Causes of Global Threats• Impacts of Global Threats• Economic Impacts of Global Warming on Developing

Countries• Global Threats and Environmental Policy

Contents



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Climate ChangeOzone DepletionExhaustion of Natural Resources:

• Fossil Fuels (non renewable energy resources)• Fresh Water• Minerals: Global Copper (example)

Current Global Environmental Threats



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Climate Change, a Very Global Issue!

“We…are confronting a planetary emergency - a threat to the survival of our civilization that is gathering ominous and destructive potential…But there is hopeful news as well: we have the ability to solve this crisis and avoid the worst - though not all - of its consequences, if we act boldly, decisively and quickly.”



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• Temperature changes worldwide, since 1970:

Signals of Global Warming

Changes in near surface temperature 1970-2004



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Global Warming and the Future

Prospective surface warming for different scenarios in the absence of climate change policies and relative to 1980-1999

• “Additional warming is already in the pipeline due to past and present emissions” (Stern 2006)



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Causes of Climate Change (4)

The greenhouse effect. A “thicker” blanket of greenhouse gases traps more infrared radition and raises temperatures

Greenhouse Gases:• Carbon Dioxide

• Methane

• Nitrous Oxide

• ChloroFluorCarbons

• Hydrochloro-fluorocarbons

• Hydrofluorocarbons

• Halons

• Carbon tetrachloride



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Impacts of Climate Change



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Economic Impacts of Global Warming on Developing Countries (1)

The vulnerability to global warming depends upon three factors:

Factors determining the vulnerability to climate change.



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• There is a correlation between global warming and economic development

• Countries differ in their vulnerabiliy to economic impacts of global warming and climate change

• The economic impacts of global warming are not evenly distributed over rich and poor countries (Mendelsohn et al. 2006)

• Economic impacts of global warming in developing countries relate to their current climate, geographic exposure and dependency on climate sensitive economic sectors (e.g. agriculture)

“impacts are proportionally greater and the ability to adapt smaller” (Stern, 2006)



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Economic Welfare

Temperature

Cooler Areas Warmer/tropical Regions

Adapted from Mendelsohn et al. 2006)

• In cooler regions: less severe winters, increased food production• In warmer regions: increased flooding, heat waves and droughts,

increased pests, crop diseases and weeds (Miller 2003)



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Ozone Depletion (1)

1979 1988 2000 2002

Thinning of ozone layer that keeps most of sun’s harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation from reaching the earth’s surface

The changes in size of the Ozonehole above Antartica during 1979 until 2002



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Ozone Depletion (2)

Characteristics of Ozone depletion problem:

• Ozone thinning varies with altitude, location and season

• Seasonal variation of ‘ozone thinning’, due to polar processes• In 2000, largest seasonal ozone thinning ozone hole above

Antartica, which covered an area of 3 times the USA (Miller, 2004)

• Recovering of Ozone layer will take 50-100 years (Miller, 2004)

• Ozone depletion is expected to be worst during 2010 and 2019 (NASA’Goddard Institute for Space Studies in Miller, 2004)



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• The mechanism of ozone (O3) depletion by ChloroFluoroCarbons (CFCs)

• Example: Reactions of CCl3F (CFC species)

Causes of Ozone Depletion

Chlorine (Cl) is

catalyst of depletion process

CCl3F + UV Cl + CCl2F

Cl + O3 ClO + O2

ClO + O CL + O2



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Human Health: Sunburn, Eye cataracts, skin cancerFood: Reduced yields, seafood suppliesForests: Decreased forest productivityWildlife: Eye cataracts, reduced population of phytoplanktonAir pollution: photochemical smogMaterials: degradation of buildings (acid deposition), outdoor

paints and plasticsGlobal warming: accelerated warming because of lower CO2

uptake by phytoplankton and CFCs as GHGs

(Miller, 2003)

Impacts of Ozone Depletion



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• Exhaustion depends on how current use affects future availability (Perman et al. 2003)

• Natural Resource Depletion: Exhaustion of Non-Renewable Resources • Fossil Fuels• Fresh Water• Minerals: Global Copper (example)

Exhaustion of Natural Resources (1)

Natural Resources

Flow Resources: No link between current use and future availability Examples: Wind, Solar, Wave power

Stock Resources: Level of current use does affect future availability

Renewable Resources: potential of natural reproduction (crops etc.)

Non-Renewable Resources: fossil fuels, minerals, fresh water



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• Fossil fuels: Consumption of natural gas and coal for electricity generation will increase in the near future

World Electricity Generation by Fuel for 2004 and 2030

Minerals: significant extractions of Copper (example). However, recycling is possible, which may delay the exhaustion process

Global Copper cycle . The units are Gg Cu/year; Lith=Lithosphere



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• Fresh Water

• Fresh water is not evenly distributed:• geographically

• in time

• in quality

• politically




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Fossil fuels: increasing energy demand, in particular from developing countries

Causes of Exhaustion of Natural Resources (1)

Average Annual Growth in Energy Consumption by region and end-use sector, 2004- 2030

Energy Use in Developing Countries (not participating in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) from 2004- 2030



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Minerals: high demand from developed and developing countries, in particular Asia


Copper entering use in 9 world regions in 1994. The units are Gg Cu/year; Lith=Lithosphere



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Fresh Water: pollution and inefficient use Pollution of fresh water resources Agricultural use of water:

17% of cropland irrigated, producing 1/3 of world food supply, using ± 70% of water for human use

< 50% of water reaches the crops - rest (leaking from pipes/canals, evaporating) re-enters hydrological cycle, degraded by pesticides, fertilizers, .. causing surface-/groundwater pollution while wasting chemicals

Potable water is used for activities not requiring potable water quality 5 – 70% distribution losses – loss of water, loss of chemicals,

loss of energy Inefficient industrial use of water: Processes often

obsolete, high water to product ratio, large amounts of wastewater disposal




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• Fossil fuels: energy crises, increased CO2 emissions because of increased coal consumption; scarcity may increase the cost effectiveness of renewable energy options (solar, wind, wave power)

• Minerals: increasing scarcity, rising prices for commodities. Use of secondary copper from recycling becomes more attractive.

• Water: 1.2 billion lack potable water because of pollution of nearby sources, raw water from ever

larger distances 2.3 billion suffer from diseases linked to water, causing

some 12 million deaths – mostly children - a year > 50% of world’s major rivers endanger human health and

poison surrounding ecosystems

Impacts of Exhaustion of Natural Resources



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Global Threats and Environmental Policy (1)

UN Breakthrough on climate change reached in Bali; Indonesian Environment Minister and President of the conference, Rachmat Witoelar said: “We now have a Bali roadmap, we have an agenda and we have a deadline.” “But we also have a huge task ahead of us and time to reach agreement is extremely short, so we need to move quickly,”

There is a water crisis, but it is a crisis of management resulting from bad institutions, bad governance, bad

incentives, and bad allocation of resources (World Water Vision, 2000)

Our atmosphere can’t tell the difference between emissions from an Asian factory, the exhaust from a North American SUV, or deforestation in South America or Africa.” UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon

“the time to act is now” UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon

“the moral challenge of our

generation,” UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-

Moon

Business is ready to move into the low-emissions era, but needs the appropriate policy framework from governments to do so,” UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de

Boer



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Global threats

require

global solutions !!

Global Threats and Environmental Policy (2)



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Regional Environmental Regional Environmental ThreatsThreats

Acidification, Water Pollution, Soil Acidification, Water Pollution, Soil Degradation and DesertificationDegradation and Desertification

1.3 Regional Environmental Threats1.3 Regional Environmental Threats


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• Characteristics of Regional Environmental Threats• Regional Threats• Nature of Water Resource Pollution and Exhaustion• Soil Degradation and Desertification• Policy Options

Contents



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Characteristics of Regional Environmental Threats

Examples of Regional threats:AcidificationDesertificationErosionDestruction of natural

habitats



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Spatial scale of impact: the distance between ‘cause’ (emission) and ‘effect’ (damage);

Same substance can be local, regional or even global pollutant• Examples:

Air: particulate matter, volatile organic compounds (local); sulfur and nitrogen oxides, ozone (local and regional)

Water and soil: toxic substances (leaching of heavy metals from landfills to soil (local impact) and ground- and surface water (regional impact)

• Regional (or global!) pollutants can have local effects• Some local emissions can have regional or even global effects

Spatial Characteristics of Environmental Threats

N.B.!



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Regional Threats from Air Pollutants (1)

• Acidification from acid deposition Slower growth, injury and death of forests Health effects Lower fish rates in lakes Deterioration of buildings Leaching of toxic metals

from water pipes



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Regional Threats from Air Pollutants (2)

The mechanism of acid depostion (Source: http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/8h.html

• Air pollutants: nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2):

transported far away from emission points to place of deposition



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Nature of Water Resource Pollution and Exhaustion (1)

• Destruction of water ecosystems and fish habitats



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Water Pollution

Groundwater Surface water

Lakes, rivers, oceans

Point sources Non-point sourcesLeaching from soils

E.g.Agriculture, urban stormwater runoff

Receiving waters

Sources

E.g. Industrial discharges in rivers

E.g. Landfills



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• Often, environmental interventions are connected

• Example: deforestation, soil depletion and water contamination

Downstream sequence of events following the clearcutting of a slope



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Nature of Water Resource Pollution and Exhaustion (4): Consequences• Example Africa: Fresh water shortage and socio-economic impacts



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Soil Degradation and Desertification• Pressure on food production results in soil degradation etc.

• ongoing deforestation• wind/water erosion• overuse of

agricultural chemicals

• poor irrigation practices (saltbuild-up/waterlogging)



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• Industrial emissions of NOx and SO2 from burning fossil fuels

How is Business Involved (1)

• Inefficient water use during production processes:• Too high water-to-product ratio• Drinking water quality when high quality is not required



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Raw materials

Gaseous waste

Products

Solid waste

Liquid wasteEnergy

The industrial mass and energy balance

Heat

Increasin

g

economic

capita

l

Decreasin

g

environmental

capita

l



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• depletion of resources - mining, clean water/air/soil, soil minerals• dilution of resources - metals, organics, nutrients, • pollution of resources - water/air/soil• damage to resources - chemicals into stratosphere• Waste generation (Eco-management Guide, 1998): producing environment unfriendly products (dyes, synthetic fibres,

paints and plastics - chemical industry) and by producing most of the EU’s hazardous waste (sludge containing heavy metals - metal platers)

concentrating on cures and treatments for waste (“end of pipe” solutions) rather than preventing its creation.

Not investigating of methods for recycling and re-use of waste, including paper and other office wastes.




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Local Environmental Local Environmental ThreatsThreats

Air Pollution, Toxic Substances, Air Pollution, Toxic Substances, Solid Waste, Policy Options Solid Waste, Policy Options

1.4 Local Environmental Threats1.4 Local Environmental Threats


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• Local ThreatsAir pollutionToxic SubstancesDepletion of Fresh Water Resources

• Aesthetic Pollution• Threats from Solid Waste

Contents



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What are Local and Regional Environmental Threats (1)

• Local Threats: Local pollution of water, air and soilErosionSoil pollution



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Local Threats from Air Pollutants

Smog from local trafficHealth damages from particulate matter

(PM10, PM2.5) from burning diesel

Indoor air pollution

Respiratory diseases



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Local Threats from Toxic Substances

• Leaching from landfills into groundwater zone:

http://www.eia.doe.gov



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Depletion of Fresh Water Resources

No replenishment of groundwater sources depletion of renewable water



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Aesthetic Pollution

• Visibility: smog• Deterioration of materials in buildings, statues etc.



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• Solid waste issues: Materials composition (hazard potential, organic, inorganic, heavy

metals, pesticides etc.) Materials amount Treatment method (storage, incineration and recycling potential)

Threats from Solid Waste (1)

?+



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• Materials composition of solid waste determines potential for adequate treatment and recycling

• Threats of hazardous materials in solid waste:• Soil degradation• Leaching from landfills to watersaturated regions• Toxic emissions from incineration

• Storage of (hazardous) solid waste: Future generations bear the risks and costs of current solid waste production = unsustainable!

• Recycling often requires lots of energy and water

Threats from Solid Waste (2)



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Policy Options (1)

Reduction of pollutants at source instead of end-of-pipe (prevent hazardous substances and reduce amount of waste entering solid waste incineration)

Solve the ‘transboundary’ problem of who is responsible for regional consequences of local emissions; emission allowances and trading

Equal distribution of water resources Efficient water use in agriculture and industrial production

processes Pollution standards, enforcement of zero discharges, trading of

effluent allowances Prevent leakage from landfills

Air

Water



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Bury in landfillsBurn in municipal incineratorsTransport to other countries (= non-solution)

Or…Prevent: create low waste society:Consume lessRedesign products and manufacturing processes

(Eco-design, eco-efficiency, cleaner production)Reduce unnecessary packagingAdopt trash taxes or ‘pay-as-you-throw’ system

Policy options for Solid Waste


Environmental threats

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