Environmental risks and Environmental risks and perspectives for large-scale perspectives for large-scale nuclear power developmentnuclear power development

Environmental risks and Environmental risks and perspectives for large-scale perspectives for large-scale nuclear power developmentnuclear power development

L.A. Bolshov,L.A. Bolshov,R.V. Arutyunyan,R.V. Arutyunyan,

I.I. LingeI.I. Linge

L.A. Bolshov,L.A. Bolshov,R.V. Arutyunyan,R.V. Arutyunyan,

I.I. LingeI.I. Linge

РОССИЙСКАЯ АКАДЕМИЯ НАУКИнститут проблем безопасного развития атомной энергетикиРОССИЙСКАЯ АКАДЕМИЯ НАУКИнститут проблем безопасного развития атомной энергетики

RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCESNuclear Safety Institute (IBRAE)RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCESNuclear Safety Institute (IBRAE)

22

All significant types of electric power All significant types of electric power (thermal, hydro- and nuclear)(thermal, hydro- and nuclear)

have practically similar basis for environmental have practically similar basis for environmental consequences assessmentconsequences assessment

All significant types of electric power All significant types of electric power (thermal, hydro- and nuclear)(thermal, hydro- and nuclear)

have practically similar basis for environmental have practically similar basis for environmental consequences assessmentconsequences assessment

33

Scaled set of negative consequences for the Scaled set of negative consequences for the environment and human health has appeared at environment and human health has appeared at

global, regional and local levelsglobal, regional and local levels

Scaled set of negative consequences for the Scaled set of negative consequences for the environment and human health has appeared at environment and human health has appeared at

global, regional and local levelsglobal, regional and local levels

GlobalGlobal, , regionalregional andand locallocal environmental problemsenvironmental problems GlobalGlobal, , regionalregional andand locallocal environmental problemsenvironmental problems

44

The goal of objective and The goal of objective and comprehensive environmental comprehensive environmental assessment of the long-term assessment of the long-term prospects of electric power prospects of electric power

development and other related development and other related power technologies is extremely power technologies is extremely

pressing!pressing!

The goal of objective and The goal of objective and comprehensive environmental comprehensive environmental assessment of the long-term assessment of the long-term prospects of electric power prospects of electric power

development and other related development and other related power technologies is extremely power technologies is extremely

pressing!pressing!

55

Structure of exposure for the population Structure of exposure for the population of the Russianof the Russian Federation inFederation in 1998 1998

Structure of exposure for the population Structure of exposure for the population of the Russianof the Russian Federation inFederation in 1998 1998

ReferenceReference:: AnalyticalAnalytical informationinformation « «State of radiation safety State of radiation safety of the Russianof the Russian Federation inFederation in 1998 » 1998 »,, Ministry of Health of the RFMinistry of Health of the RFReferenceReference:: AnalyticalAnalytical informationinformation « «State of radiation safety State of radiation safety of the Russianof the Russian Federation inFederation in 1998 » 1998 »,, Ministry of Health of the RFMinistry of Health of the RF

Region Region Radiation Radiation from from

natural natural IRS, %IRS, %

Medical Medical exposure, exposure,

%%

Radiation from Radiation from global RR fallout global RR fallout

and past radiation and past radiation accidents, %accidents, %

Man-caused exposure Man-caused exposure from the from the

manufacturers, manufacturers, exploiting IRS, %exploiting IRS, %

ChNPP zoneChNPP zone

Bryansk regionBryansk region 51.951.9 37.337.3 10.810.8 0.010.01

Kaluga region Kaluga region 74.974.9 2424 0.90.9 0.180.18

Orlov regionOrlov region 6464 32.732.7 3.33.3 0.030.03

SPA "Mayak" zoneSPA "Mayak" zone

Sverdlovsk Sverdlovsk regionregion

58.758.7 39.539.5 1.71.7 0.140.14

Chelyabinsk Chelyabinsk regionregion

74.574.5 24.724.7 0.60.6 0.240.24

NW tests influence zoneNW tests influence zone

Altai regionAltai region 81.981.9 17.817.8 0.290.29 0.010.01

Working NPPWorking NPP

Voronezhskaya Voronezhskaya obl.obl.

62.462.4 36.936.9 0.60.6 0.110.11

Murmanskaya Murmanskaya obl.obl.

7373..66 2525..55 00..66 00..2626

Smolenskaya Smolenskaya obl.obl.

5858..55 3939..88 11..77 00..0404

66

Exposure doses for the population around the Exposure doses for the population around the plants of Minatom of the Russian Federation plants of Minatom of the Russian Federation

inin 1993 1993 -- 1996 1996 UNSCEARUNSCEAR report - report - 20002000

Exposure doses for the population around the Exposure doses for the population around the plants of Minatom of the Russian Federation plants of Minatom of the Russian Federation

inin 1993 1993 -- 1996 1996 UNSCEARUNSCEAR report - report - 20002000

PlantPlant

ExposedExposed

populatiopopulationn

(Ths. (Ths. people)people)

Annual effective doseAnnual effective dose

mSv/ymSv/yLife risk Life risk for the for the

populationpopulationExternaExternall

InternalInternal TotalTotal

SPASPA ««MayakMayak»»

320320 0.010.01 0.100.10 0.110.11 5.55.5··1010-6-6

MCCMCC 200200 0.030.03 0.020.02 0.050.05 2.52.5··1010-6-6

SCCSCC 400400 0.00040.0004 0.0050.005 0.00540.0054 33··1010-7-7Natural background – 2-2.5 mSv/yearMedical procedures – 1-3 mSv/yearNatural background – 2-2.5 mSv/yearMedical procedures – 1-3 mSv/year

77

Average annual exposure doses to the Average annual exposure doses to the population from different sourcespopulation from different sources

((mSv/yearmSv/year))

Average annual exposure doses to the Average annual exposure doses to the population from different sourcespopulation from different sources

((mSv/yearmSv/year))

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

FINLAND GERMANY KRASNOYARSKREGION

MAYAK Tomsk SMOLENSKAYANPP

BALAKOVSKAYANPP

GLOBAL

0

0,02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,1

0,12

MAYAK MCC

0

0,0002

0,0004

0,0006

0,0008

0,001

0,0012

0,0014

0,0016

0,0018

SMOLENSKAYA NPP BALAKOVSKAYA NPP GLOBAL

- natural background

- medical procedures

- technogenic exposure

- global

х 100х 100

х 100х 100

88

Global problems of nuclear power?Global problems of nuclear power?Global problems of nuclear power?Global problems of nuclear power?

1.1. Impact of global radionuclides:Impact of global radionuclides:− quantitatively predictablequantitatively predictable;;− nnegligible under any evolution scenarioegligible under any evolution scenario..

1.1. Impact of global radionuclides:Impact of global radionuclides:− quantitatively predictablequantitatively predictable;;− nnegligible under any evolution scenarioegligible under any evolution scenario..

0,00

0,03

0,06

0,09

0,12

0,15

0,18

1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200

0,00

0,03

0,06

0,09

0,12

0,15

0,18

1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200

100 years100 years

200 years200 years

An

nu

al eff

ecti

ve d

ose,

µS

vA

nn

ual eff

ecti

ve d

ose,

µS

v

FromFrom 8585Kr ~ 0.1 µSvKr ~ 0.1 µSvFromFrom 33H andH and 129129I ~ I ~ 00..05 05 µSvµSvFromFrom 8585Kr ~ 0.1 µSvKr ~ 0.1 µSvFromFrom 33H andH and 129129I ~ I ~ 00..05 05 µSvµSv

Average annual doses caused by globally dispersed 14С from nuclear objects

95% man*Sv/GWt/y ((UNSCEAR report – 2000)

Average annual doses caused by globally dispersed 14С from nuclear objects

95% man*Sv/GWt/y ((UNSCEAR report – 2000)

99

Safety Level Achieved Safety Level Achieved Safety Level Achieved Safety Level Achieved

Dose LimitDose Limit 11 mSv mSv

Dose LimitDose Limit 11 mSv mSv

(200+50) (200+50) µSvµSv ((SPASSPAS-79)-79)PCPC – (50 + 50) – (50 + 50) µSvµSv ((SPASSPAS-03)-03)MPRMPR + +MPDMPD – (10+10) – (10+10) µSvµSv

(200+50) (200+50) µSvµSv ((SPASSPAS-79)-79)PCPC – (50 + 50) – (50 + 50) µSvµSv ((SPASSPAS-03)-03)MPRMPR + +MPDMPD – (10+10) – (10+10) µSvµSv

PermissiblePermissible Release or DischargeRelease or Discharge

PermissiblePermissible Release or DischargeRelease or Discharge

TechnologiesTechnologiesTechnologiesTechnologies

Actual Release Actual Release or Dischargeor Discharge

Actual Release Actual Release or Dischargeor Discharge

Actual DosesActual Doses ~~ µSvµSv

Actual DosesActual Doses ~~ µSvµSv

сс

Basic limits established from hygienic criteria (1mSv) provide for guaranteed public and environmental

protection

Basic limits established from hygienic criteria (1mSv) provide for guaranteed public and environmental

protection

сс

QuotaQuota

1010

Average annual exposure doses Average annual exposure doses for the personnel of Minatom for the personnel of Minatom

of the Russian Federation in 1992-1999of the Russian Federation in 1992-1999Maximum permissible annual dose for personnel Maximum permissible annual dose for personnel

was 50 mSv, since 2000 - 20 mSvwas 50 mSv, since 2000 - 20 mSv

Average annual exposure doses Average annual exposure doses for the personnel of Minatom for the personnel of Minatom

of the Russian Federation in 1992-1999of the Russian Federation in 1992-1999Maximum permissible annual dose for personnel Maximum permissible annual dose for personnel

was 50 mSv, since 2000 - 20 mSvwas 50 mSv, since 2000 - 20 mSv

Average annual exposure Average annual exposure dosedose, , mSvmSv//yearyearAverage annual exposure Average annual exposure dosedose, , mSvmSv//yearyear

2,92,92,92,93,13,13,13,13,33,33,33,33,53,53,53,544444,14,14,14,1

4,44,44,44,44,74,74,74,7

2222

3333

4444

5555

1992199219921992 1993199319931993 1994199419941994 1995199519951995 1996199619961996 1997199719971997 1998199819981998 1999199919991999

1111

External External exposure for the personnel of exposure for the personnel of Minatom Minatom

of the Russian Federation with doses of the Russian Federation with doses exceeding exceeding 1 1..5 rem 5 rem inin 1992-1999 1992-1999

External External exposure for the personnel of exposure for the personnel of Minatom Minatom

of the Russian Federation with doses of the Russian Federation with doses exceeding exceeding 1 1..5 rem 5 rem inin 1992-1999 1992-1999

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Minatom 3980 3817 3472 2964 2455 2144 2050 2355

NPP 3345 3180 2979 2445 1911 1499 1546 1464

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 19990

1000

2000

3000

4000

Minatom 3980 3817 3472 2964 2455 2144 2050 2355

NPP 3345 3180 2979 2445 1911 1499 1546 1464

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

1212

Dynamics of personnel exposure at the “Mayak” plant RT

0,0

50,0

100,0

150,0

200,0

250,0

300,0

350,0

1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Year

Vo

lum

es

of

rep

roc

es

se

d s

pe

nt

nu

cle

ar

fue

l,

ton

s o

f U

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Ave

rag

e an

nu

al d

ose

s fo

r th

e p

erso

nn

el, m

Sv

Volumes of NSF reproc., t U Average annual dose, mSv

Average dose for the personnel of plant RT-1 (reprocessing) is 2.8 mSv/year, of plant RT-2 (storage) - 0.7 mSv/year. Though there are still some reserves for dose decreasing. Recent dose loads for the personnel of plant RT-1 correspond to the dose loads for the personnel of French plants at the beginning of 1990s (before modernization)

1313

Radiation incidents with victims in Radiation incidents with victims in nuclear industry in the nuclear industry in the USSR and Russia USSR and Russia

for 50 years for 50 years (data of SSC “Institute of Biophysics”, March (data of SSC “Institute of Biophysics”, March

2001)2001)

Radiation incidents with victims in Radiation incidents with victims in nuclear industry in the nuclear industry in the USSR and Russia USSR and Russia

for 50 years for 50 years (data of SSC “Institute of Biophysics”, March (data of SSC “Institute of Biophysics”, March

2001)2001)

1414

Nuclear Power Technology and Nuclear Power Technology and Sustainable Development Sustainable Development

Nuclear Power Technology and Nuclear Power Technology and Sustainable Development Sustainable Development

1. Actually unlimited reserve of energy carrier in the fuel cycle with breeder reactors.

2. Retaining of the overwhelming part of potentially harmful radioactive substances in a technological cycle at all stages up to final RW disposal.

3. Human and environmental risks from discharges and releases of current nuclear productions under project operation conditions are small even at large-scale NP development and cannot infringe natural radiation balance.

1. Actually unlimited reserve of energy carrier in the fuel cycle with breeder reactors.

2. Retaining of the overwhelming part of potentially harmful radioactive substances in a technological cycle at all stages up to final RW disposal.

3. Human and environmental risks from discharges and releases of current nuclear productions under project operation conditions are small even at large-scale NP development and cannot infringe natural radiation balance.

1515

NFC environmental safetyNFC environmental safety NFC environmental safetyNFC environmental safety Fundamental characteristic of advanced and, Fundamental characteristic of advanced and, in particular, innovative nuclear technologies in particular, innovative nuclear technologies with closed fuel cycle is to retain most of with closed fuel cycle is to retain most of radioactive substances within protective radioactive substances within protective barriers at all process stages up to RW final barriers at all process stages up to RW final disposaldisposal..

Fundamental characteristic of advanced and, Fundamental characteristic of advanced and, in particular, innovative nuclear technologies in particular, innovative nuclear technologies with closed fuel cycle is to retain most of with closed fuel cycle is to retain most of radioactive substances within protective radioactive substances within protective barriers at all process stages up to RW final barriers at all process stages up to RW final disposaldisposal..

RNGRNG 131131II137137Cs Cs 9090SrSr

RNGRNG 131131II137137Cs Cs 9090SrSr

1010-8-8 10 10-10-101010-8-8 10 10-10-10 Pu Pu 137137Cs Cs 9090SrSr

Pu Pu 137137Cs Cs 9090SrSr

1010-9 -9 10 10-10-101010-9 -9 10 10-10-10

1616

TEPP ecologyTEPP ecology TEPP ecologyTEPP ecology

Thermal power consuming nonrenewable resource Thermal power consuming nonrenewable resource assumes that detrimental products are released to the assumes that detrimental products are released to the

environment during production process and affect environment during production process and affect human health and the environment continuously and human health and the environment continuously and

significantlysignificantly..

Thermal power consuming nonrenewable resource Thermal power consuming nonrenewable resource assumes that detrimental products are released to the assumes that detrimental products are released to the

environment during production process and affect environment during production process and affect human health and the environment continuously and human health and the environment continuously and

significantlysignificantly..

1717

!?!?

Kyoto Protocol andKyoto Protocol and FCCCFCCCKyoto Protocol andKyoto Protocol and FCCCFCCC

Greenhouse gases Greenhouse gases and oxygen and oxygen

consumption represent consumption represent a complex a complex

conglomerate of conglomerate of political and economic political and economic

interests of the interests of the countries and countries and

industrial groupsindustrial groups

Greenhouse gases Greenhouse gases and oxygen and oxygen

consumption represent consumption represent a complex a complex

conglomerate of conglomerate of political and economic political and economic

interests of the interests of the countries and countries and

industrial groupsindustrial groups

Exclusion of nuclear power Exclusion of nuclear power from the procedures provided from the procedures provided for in FCCC and Kyoto Protocolfor in FCCC and Kyoto Protocol

Exclusion of nuclear power Exclusion of nuclear power from the procedures provided from the procedures provided for in FCCC and Kyoto Protocolfor in FCCC and Kyoto Protocol

1818

PP PP typetype StandardStandard Exceeding Exceeding

of standard of standard

NPPNPP MPR, DL, QDMPR, DL, QD NoNo

TEPPTEPP55% 55% - MPR- MPR45% 45% - TAR- TAR ((at the level of at the level of actual releasesactual releases))

YesYes

Substances typical of TEPP releases are referred to Substances typical of TEPP releases are referred to priority toxic impurities in the atmosphere of many priority toxic impurities in the atmosphere of many Russian cities.Russian cities.

According to Rosgidromet 30 mln. individuals live According to Rosgidromet 30 mln. individuals live in the cities where average annual concentration of in the cities where average annual concentration of suspended particles and nitrogen dioxide exceeds suspended particles and nitrogen dioxide exceeds 10 MPC.10 MPC.

Thermal power engineering contributes to air Thermal power engineering contributes to air maximum pollution of each second city of Russia maximum pollution of each second city of Russia included into in the Priority List.included into in the Priority List.

Substances typical of TEPP releases are referred to Substances typical of TEPP releases are referred to priority toxic impurities in the atmosphere of many priority toxic impurities in the atmosphere of many Russian cities.Russian cities.

According to Rosgidromet 30 mln. individuals live According to Rosgidromet 30 mln. individuals live in the cities where average annual concentration of in the cities where average annual concentration of suspended particles and nitrogen dioxide exceeds suspended particles and nitrogen dioxide exceeds 10 MPC.10 MPC.

Thermal power engineering contributes to air Thermal power engineering contributes to air maximum pollution of each second city of Russia maximum pollution of each second city of Russia included into in the Priority List.included into in the Priority List.

1919

Health risks for the public living Health risks for the public living in the areas of nuclear and coal-fired PP in the areas of nuclear and coal-fired PP

location location in Sverdlovsk regionin Sverdlovsk region

Health risks for the public living Health risks for the public living in the areas of nuclear and coal-fired PP in the areas of nuclear and coal-fired PP

location location in Sverdlovsk regionin Sverdlovsk region

2020

Concentration of suspended substances Concentration of suspended substances in the air of the cities with large coal-fired in the air of the cities with large coal-fired

TEPP TEPP and related mortality risksand related mortality risks

Concentration of suspended substances Concentration of suspended substances in the air of the cities with large coal-fired in the air of the cities with large coal-fired

TEPP TEPP and related mortality risksand related mortality risks

CitiesCities

Annual Annual average average

concentration, concentration, MPC shareMPC share

Annual Annual individual individual mortality mortality

risk risk

PopulationPopulation,,thousthous..

Annual Annual population population mortality mortality risk, manrisk, man

Asbest (Reftinsk Asbest (Reftinsk HEPP)HEPP) 22..00 11..00··1010-3-3 117,9117,9 117117

Nazarovo Nazarovo (Nazarovo HEPP)(Nazarovo HEPP) 00..55 11..0808··1010-4-4 64,264,2 77

Ulan-UdeUlan-Ude 11..22 55..11··1010-4-4 371,4371,4 190190

CheremkhovoCheremkhovo 33..66 11..99··1010-3-3 50,050,0 9696

ChitaChita 11..88 88..88··1010-4-4 316,7316,7 278278

Novocherkassk Novocherkassk (Rostov NPP)(Rostov NPP) 00..88 33..22··1010-4-4 188,7188,7 6060

UssuriiskUssuriisk 22..00 11..00··1010-3-3 158,4158,4 158158

2121

CarcinogenicCarcinogenic risksrisks at normativeat normative levelslevels for for permissible concentrations for most of permissible concentrations for most of regulated substances reach very high regulated substances reach very high

values values

CarcinogenicCarcinogenic risksrisks at normativeat normative levelslevels for for permissible concentrations for most of permissible concentrations for most of regulated substances reach very high regulated substances reach very high

values values

%%%%Abs.Abs.Abs.Abs.%%%%Abs.Abs.Abs.Abs.%%%%Abs.Abs.Abs.Abs.

100100100100939393931001001001003737373710010010010087878787TotalTotalTotalTotal

0000000019,019,019,019,0777710,510,510,510,59999<10<10-5-5<10<10-5-5

7,57,57,57,5777724,324,324,324,3999926,426,426,426,4232323231010-4-4-10-10-5-51010-4-4-10-10-5-5

10,710,710,710,71010101035,135,135,135,11313131333,333,333,333,3292929291010-3-3-10-10-4-41010-3-3-10-10-4-4

36,536,536,536,53434343416,216,216,216,2666621,821,821,821,8191919191010-2-2-10-10-3-31010-2-2-10-10-3-3

45,145,145,145,1424242425,45,45,45,422228,08,08,08,07777>10>10-2-2>10>10-2-2

Working areaWorking areaWorking areaWorking areaAtmospheric airAtmospheric airAtmospheric airAtmospheric airWater in pondsWater in pondsWater in pondsWater in pondsRiskRiskRiskRisk

S.M.NovikovS.M.Novikov, , B.N.PorfirievB.N.Porfiriev, , O.V.PonomarevaO.V.PonomarevaConsulting Center on risk assessmentConsulting Center on risk assessment, , MoscowMoscow,,

Report of IBRAE RASReport of IBRAE RAS, 2000 , 2000

S.M.NovikovS.M.Novikov, , B.N.PorfirievB.N.Porfiriev, , O.V.PonomarevaO.V.PonomarevaConsulting Center on risk assessmentConsulting Center on risk assessment, , MoscowMoscow,,

Report of IBRAE RASReport of IBRAE RAS, 2000 , 2000

2222

Specific damage (mln Euro/GW-yr) caused by three major air pollutants for some EC

countries (according to ExternE project computation) and

Russia (Demin V.F.)

Specific damage (mln Euro/GW-yr) caused by three major air pollutants for some EC

countries (according to ExternE project computation) and

Russia (Demin V.F.)

CountryCountry SOSO22 NONOXXSuspended Suspended particlesparticles

AustriaAustria 2323..66 3939..4 – 734 – 73..66 88..88

BelgiumBelgium 3030..0 – 0 – 3131..99

5050..4 – 534 – 53..99 1212..9 9

FranceFrance 1919..7 – 7 – 4040..22

4747..3 – 783 – 78..88 33..2 – 302 – 30..00

GermanyGermany 44..7 – 367 – 36..00 47.7 – 6647.7 – 66..11 1010..2 –122 –12..33

UKUK 1515..8 – 8 – 2626..33

2525..1 – 421 – 42..00 44..2 – 122 – 12..00

RussiaRussia 9797..22 8282..33 6565..77

2323

Individual annual risks of death

* - * - Hypothetical risks of death for small doses within the framework of linear Hypothetical risks of death for small doses within the framework of linear nonthreshold conceptnonthreshold concept ** - ** - Extrapolated for all urban populationExtrapolated for all urban population*** - N. Künzli «Public-health impact of outdoor and traffic-related air pollution: *** - N. Künzli «Public-health impact of outdoor and traffic-related air pollution: a European assessment»,“The Lancet”, Vol. 356, September 2, 2000 a European assessment»,“The Lancet”, Vol. 356, September 2, 2000**** - According to RF Ministry of Health**** - According to RF Ministry of Health

CausesAffected,

mlnRisks

Number of deaths

per yr

All causes 69 (men)1.5·10-2

(average for 1996-1999)

1 060 000

Accidents 69 (men)3.4·10-3

(average for 1996-1999)

240 000

Severe air pollution

43 (according to monitoring data)

More than 70 (extrapolation**)

10-4 – 10-3

(loss of years: 0.5 man-year***)

21 00018700****

40 000

Air pollution by chemical carcinogens

50 (according to monitoring data)

10-5 – 10-7 620

Zone of resettlement of NPP

0.1 (contaminated regions of

Ukraine, Russia and Byelorussia)

8·10-5*(loss of years: 15 man-year) 8*

Living in the vicinity of MCC, SCC, SPA “Mayak”

0.9 6·10-6-3х10-7* < 3*

Living in the vicinity of NPP

0.5 - 1 2·10-8-2·10-6* <0,7*

Living in the vicinity of coal-fired TEPP

10 - 15 10-4 – 10-3 5 000 – 7 000

2424

Effect of contaminated air on the Effect of contaminated air on the population health in Western Europe population health in Western Europe

(Austria, France and Switzerland)(Austria, France and Switzerland)* *

Effect of contaminated air on the Effect of contaminated air on the population health in Western Europe population health in Western Europe

(Austria, France and Switzerland)(Austria, France and Switzerland)* *

Results.Results. 6% of annual death rate (40,000 6% of annual death rate (40,000 cases) is caused by air pollution. About half cases) is caused by air pollution. About half of all deaths connected with air pollution, is of all deaths connected with air pollution, is due to motor transport, which is due to motor transport, which is responsible for more than 25,000 new responsible for more than 25,000 new cases of chronic bronchitis (for adults), cases of chronic bronchitis (for adults), above 290,000 cases of bronchitis above 290,000 cases of bronchitis (children), above 0.5 million of asthma (children), above 0.5 million of asthma cases and above 16 mln. man-day of cases and above 16 mln. man-day of restricted activity.restricted activity.

Results.Results. 6% of annual death rate (40,000 6% of annual death rate (40,000 cases) is caused by air pollution. About half cases) is caused by air pollution. About half of all deaths connected with air pollution, is of all deaths connected with air pollution, is due to motor transport, which is due to motor transport, which is responsible for more than 25,000 new responsible for more than 25,000 new cases of chronic bronchitis (for adults), cases of chronic bronchitis (for adults), above 290,000 cases of bronchitis above 290,000 cases of bronchitis (children), above 0.5 million of asthma (children), above 0.5 million of asthma cases and above 16 mln. man-day of cases and above 16 mln. man-day of restricted activity.restricted activity.

** - N. Kunzli - N. Kunzli, , R. KaizerR. Kaizer, , S. Medina et alS. Medina et al. «. «The LancetThe Lancet», », V.352, V.352, September 2, 2000, pp.795September 2, 2000, pp.795** - N. Kunzli - N. Kunzli, , R. KaizerR. Kaizer, , S. Medina et alS. Medina et al. «. «The LancetThe Lancet», », V.352, V.352, September 2, 2000, pp.795September 2, 2000, pp.795

2525

Potential Environmental Risks from Potential Environmental Risks from Nuclear TechnologiesNuclear Technologies

Potential Environmental Risks from Potential Environmental Risks from Nuclear TechnologiesNuclear Technologies

Reverse side of NFC ecological Reverse side of NFC ecological compatibility is increased potential compatibility is increased potential hazard at beyond-the-design-basis hazard at beyond-the-design-basis accidentsaccidents..

2626

The following is of vital The following is of vital importance in this importance in this connection:connection:

−Objective evaluation of Objective evaluation of reasons, effects and reasons, effects and factors defining the scale factors defining the scale of accidents;of accidents;

−Learning lessons from Learning lessons from accidentsaccidents. .

The following is of vital The following is of vital importance in this importance in this connection:connection:

−Objective evaluation of Objective evaluation of reasons, effects and reasons, effects and factors defining the scale factors defining the scale of accidents;of accidents;

−Learning lessons from Learning lessons from accidentsaccidents. .

Large radiation accidents Large radiation accidents have become an have become an

objective obstacle in objective obstacle in nuclear power nuclear power developmentdevelopment

Large radiation accidents Large radiation accidents have become an have become an

objective obstacle in objective obstacle in nuclear power nuclear power developmentdevelopment

2727

ChNPP AccidentChNPP Accident ChNPP AccidentChNPP Accident

• Limited radiological effectsLimited radiological effects;;

• Scale social and economic consequences, Scale social and economic consequences, including as including as a result of inadequate or a result of inadequate or inefficient protective actionsinefficient protective actions. .

• Limited radiological effectsLimited radiological effects;;

• Scale social and economic consequences, Scale social and economic consequences, including as including as a result of inadequate or a result of inadequate or inefficient protective actionsinefficient protective actions. .

2828

Cohort

Localization

Number of revealed

cases

Including radiogenic

cases

Average on the

RF ARS 134 134 Firemen, personnel,

liquidators Died 31 28 Leucosis 145 50 9235 Participants of LCA

(116 thousand) Thyroid glad cancer

55 12 4211

Leucosis - - Children in the Bryansk Region Thyroid glad

cancer 170 55 11230

TThe given data show that, being absolutely unacceptable he given data show that, being absolutely unacceptable from point of view of the social and economical losses, which from point of view of the social and economical losses, which

are connected with the population evacuation and are connected with the population evacuation and disturbance of their vital conditions and the high level of disturbance of their vital conditions and the high level of

psychological stress, psychological stress, the Chernobyl accident cannot be regarded not only as a the Chernobyl accident cannot be regarded not only as a catastrophe, but even as a large technogenic accident catastrophe, but even as a large technogenic accident

considering the number of sufferers and died of radiation. considering the number of sufferers and died of radiation.

TThe given data show that, being absolutely unacceptable he given data show that, being absolutely unacceptable from point of view of the social and economical losses, which from point of view of the social and economical losses, which

are connected with the population evacuation and are connected with the population evacuation and disturbance of their vital conditions and the high level of disturbance of their vital conditions and the high level of

psychological stress, psychological stress, the Chernobyl accident cannot be regarded not only as a the Chernobyl accident cannot be regarded not only as a catastrophe, but even as a large technogenic accident catastrophe, but even as a large technogenic accident

considering the number of sufferers and died of radiation. considering the number of sufferers and died of radiation.

ChNPP accident – long-term effects among the population of Russia

(data of the Russian State Medical-Dosimetry Register – acad. A.F.Tsyb, prof. V.K.Ivanov)

2929

LessonsLessonsLessonsLessons• Safety increase for all aspects of NPP operation Safety increase for all aspects of NPP operation

due to modernization and increase in safety culturedue to modernization and increase in safety culture;;• Justified development of safety systems, including Justified development of safety systems, including

localization under conditions of beyond-the-design-localization under conditions of beyond-the-design-basis accidents;basis accidents;

• Considerable upgrade for emergency response Considerable upgrade for emergency response systemssystems;;

• Efforts to harmonize the normative and legal basis Efforts to harmonize the normative and legal basis in the field of anthropogenic risks;in the field of anthropogenic risks;

•Scale international and national programs promote Scale international and national programs promote for learning lessons.for learning lessons.

• Safety increase for all aspects of NPP operation Safety increase for all aspects of NPP operation due to modernization and increase in safety culturedue to modernization and increase in safety culture;;

• Justified development of safety systems, including Justified development of safety systems, including localization under conditions of beyond-the-design-localization under conditions of beyond-the-design-basis accidents;basis accidents;

• Considerable upgrade for emergency response Considerable upgrade for emergency response systemssystems;;

• Efforts to harmonize the normative and legal basis Efforts to harmonize the normative and legal basis in the field of anthropogenic risks;in the field of anthropogenic risks;

•Scale international and national programs promote Scale international and national programs promote for learning lessons.for learning lessons.

VVER-91/99. ProjectVVER-91/99. Project.. (Practical Realization is (Practical Realization is

the Tianwan NPP in the Tianwan NPP in China)China)

VVER-91/99. ProjectVVER-91/99. Project.. (Practical Realization is (Practical Realization is

the Tianwan NPP in the Tianwan NPP in China)China)

3030

Probability of a severe accidentProbability of a severe accident??Probability of a severe accidentProbability of a severe accident??

Significant radioactive releaseSignificant radioactive release??Significant radioactive releaseSignificant radioactive release??

By cumulative effects, accidents with By cumulative effects, accidents with significant significant «?»«?» radioactive release into the radioactive release into the environment are practically unacceptable for environment are practically unacceptable for the present community even at the lack or the present community even at the lack or smallness of radiological consequencessmallness of radiological consequences

By cumulative effects, accidents with By cumulative effects, accidents with significant significant «?»«?» radioactive release into the radioactive release into the environment are practically unacceptable for environment are practically unacceptable for the present community even at the lack or the present community even at the lack or smallness of radiological consequencessmallness of radiological consequences

Evacuation criteriaEvacuation criteria??[IAEA[IAEA, , NRB: (50-500) mSvNRB: (50-500) mSv – ? – ?]]

3131

«…«…while assessing the values of stochastic irradiation while assessing the values of stochastic irradiation consequences, there are no arguments in favour of medical and consequences, there are no arguments in favour of medical and biological justification for including in calculations the dose biological justification for including in calculations the dose values below the practical threshold.values below the practical threshold.

… … the similar numerical values of the practical threshold on the the similar numerical values of the practical threshold on the accumulated effective dose are within the limits of 200 mSv»accumulated effective dose are within the limits of 200 mSv»

L.A.Ilin « Problems of regulating the technogenic people L.A.Ilin « Problems of regulating the technogenic people exposure» Proceedings of International Conference « exposure» Proceedings of International Conference « Radioactivity at nuclear explosions and accidents», Moscow Radioactivity at nuclear explosions and accidents», Moscow 2000.2000.

«…«…while assessing the values of stochastic irradiation while assessing the values of stochastic irradiation consequences, there are no arguments in favour of medical and consequences, there are no arguments in favour of medical and biological justification for including in calculations the dose biological justification for including in calculations the dose values below the practical threshold.values below the practical threshold.

… … the similar numerical values of the practical threshold on the the similar numerical values of the practical threshold on the accumulated effective dose are within the limits of 200 mSv»accumulated effective dose are within the limits of 200 mSv»

L.A.Ilin « Problems of regulating the technogenic people L.A.Ilin « Problems of regulating the technogenic people exposure» Proceedings of International Conference « exposure» Proceedings of International Conference « Radioactivity at nuclear explosions and accidents», Moscow Radioactivity at nuclear explosions and accidents», Moscow 2000.2000.

Decision-Making about Chronic Decision-Making about Chronic Radiation Exposure to the Public:Radiation Exposure to the Public:

New Recommendations from the New Recommendations from the ICRPICRP

Abel J. GonzalezAbel J. Gonzalez, 2000, 2000

Decision-Making about Chronic Decision-Making about Chronic Radiation Exposure to the Public:Radiation Exposure to the Public:

New Recommendations from the New Recommendations from the ICRPICRP

Abel J. GonzalezAbel J. Gonzalez, 2000, 2000

«… annual radiation dose, which «… annual radiation dose, which approaches 10 mSv, can be used approaches 10 mSv, can be used as a control level, below which, in as a control level, below which, in some situations, connected with some situations, connected with long exposure, can hardly be long exposure, can hardly be considered as justified» considered as justified»

«… annual radiation dose, which «… annual radiation dose, which approaches 10 mSv, can be used approaches 10 mSv, can be used as a control level, below which, in as a control level, below which, in some situations, connected with some situations, connected with long exposure, can hardly be long exposure, can hardly be considered as justified» considered as justified»

3232

The following has become an obstacle for the The following has become an obstacle for the public to accept advantages, strategic prospects public to accept advantages, strategic prospects and necessity in NP developmentand necessity in NP development::

1.1. Hypertrophied and far from the actual data Hypertrophied and far from the actual data public ideas of effects of radiation accidents, as a public ideas of effects of radiation accidents, as a whole, and grave fears as to a possibility to whole, and grave fears as to a possibility to provide long-term RW safety; andprovide long-term RW safety; and

2.2. Inconsistent, unbalanced and scientifically Inconsistent, unbalanced and scientifically contradictory methodologies, criteria and contradictory methodologies, criteria and estimates for risks and damages from radiation estimates for risks and damages from radiation factors implemented in the radiation safety factors implemented in the radiation safety criteria, standards and legislation. criteria, standards and legislation.

The following has become an obstacle for the The following has become an obstacle for the public to accept advantages, strategic prospects public to accept advantages, strategic prospects and necessity in NP developmentand necessity in NP development::

1.1. Hypertrophied and far from the actual data Hypertrophied and far from the actual data public ideas of effects of radiation accidents, as a public ideas of effects of radiation accidents, as a whole, and grave fears as to a possibility to whole, and grave fears as to a possibility to provide long-term RW safety; andprovide long-term RW safety; and

2.2. Inconsistent, unbalanced and scientifically Inconsistent, unbalanced and scientifically contradictory methodologies, criteria and contradictory methodologies, criteria and estimates for risks and damages from radiation estimates for risks and damages from radiation factors implemented in the radiation safety factors implemented in the radiation safety criteria, standards and legislation. criteria, standards and legislation.

NewNew « «controversialcontroversial» » initiativesinitiatives

1. 1. Dose limit for population as of Dose limit for population as of 00..3 3 ммSvSv//yryr ( (ICRPICRP))

2. 2. Radiological protection of the Radiological protection of the environmentenvironment ( (ICRP, IAEAICRP, IAEA))

1. 1. Dose limit for population as of Dose limit for population as of 00..3 3 ммSvSv//yryr ( (ICRPICRP))

2. 2. Radiological protection of the Radiological protection of the environmentenvironment ( (ICRP, IAEAICRP, IAEA))

3434

Positive Trends of Recent YearsPositive Trends of Recent Years::Positive Trends of Recent YearsPositive Trends of Recent Years::−Memorandum of R.Clark, ICRP Chairman, as Memorandum of R.Clark, ICRP Chairman, as

for orientation to the levels of natural for orientation to the levels of natural background and rejection of direct collective background and rejection of direct collective dose utilization in order to estimate damages dose utilization in order to estimate damages from radiation factorfrom radiation factor;;

− The Chernobyl Forum in the framework of The Chernobyl Forum in the framework of which an effort is being made to elaborate which an effort is being made to elaborate objective ideas of the effects of the Chernobyl objective ideas of the effects of the Chernobyl accidentaccident..

−Memorandum of R.Clark, ICRP Chairman, as Memorandum of R.Clark, ICRP Chairman, as for orientation to the levels of natural for orientation to the levels of natural background and rejection of direct collective background and rejection of direct collective dose utilization in order to estimate damages dose utilization in order to estimate damages from radiation factorfrom radiation factor;;

− The Chernobyl Forum in the framework of The Chernobyl Forum in the framework of which an effort is being made to elaborate which an effort is being made to elaborate objective ideas of the effects of the Chernobyl objective ideas of the effects of the Chernobyl accidentaccident..

In fact, by cumulative scientific data and In fact, by cumulative scientific data and obtained technological reserve, large-scale obtained technological reserve, large-scale nuclear power development has no limits nuclear power development has no limits

by environmental safety criteria.by environmental safety criteria.

In fact, by cumulative scientific data and In fact, by cumulative scientific data and obtained technological reserve, large-scale obtained technological reserve, large-scale nuclear power development has no limits nuclear power development has no limits

by environmental safety criteria.by environmental safety criteria.

3535

Global problems of nuclear power?Global problems of nuclear power?Global problems of nuclear power?Global problems of nuclear power?

2.2. RW disposal:RW disposal:− ppossibility of safe disposal in ossibility of safe disposal in

the geological formations which the geological formations which remain stable for hundred remain stable for hundred thousands and millions of yearsthousands and millions of years

2.2. RW disposal:RW disposal:− ppossibility of safe disposal in ossibility of safe disposal in

the geological formations which the geological formations which remain stable for hundred remain stable for hundred thousands and millions of yearsthousands and millions of years

3.3. Non-proliferationNon-proliferation4.4. VulnerabilityVulnerability3.3. Non-proliferationNon-proliferation4.4. VulnerabilityVulnerability

3636

Insurance Against Accidents and Provision Insurance Against Accidents and Provision for Implementation of Solutions on RS/RW for Implementation of Solutions on RS/RW

Management Management

Insurance Against Accidents and Provision Insurance Against Accidents and Provision for Implementation of Solutions on RS/RW for Implementation of Solutions on RS/RW

Management Management

Retaining of the overwhelming part of potentially Retaining of the overwhelming part of potentially harmful radioactive substances in a long-term (tens or harmful radioactive substances in a long-term (tens or hundreds years) technological cycle requires special hundreds years) technological cycle requires special organization for RW management system as well as organization for RW management system as well as insurance against risks dealt with beyond-the-design-insurance against risks dealt with beyond-the-design-basis accidentsbasis accidents of low probabilityof low probability..

Insurance of such risks should be performed solely Insurance of such risks should be performed solely out of accumulative funds of the producerout of accumulative funds of the producer. .

However, it can be guaranteed for a long-term However, it can be guaranteed for a long-term period only at the state’s involvement or through period only at the state’s involvement or through international guaranteesinternational guarantees..

At such organization, the insurance against At such organization, the insurance against environmental risks from energy technologies is not environmental risks from energy technologies is not economically burdensome.economically burdensome.

Retaining of the overwhelming part of potentially Retaining of the overwhelming part of potentially harmful radioactive substances in a long-term (tens or harmful radioactive substances in a long-term (tens or hundreds years) technological cycle requires special hundreds years) technological cycle requires special organization for RW management system as well as organization for RW management system as well as insurance against risks dealt with beyond-the-design-insurance against risks dealt with beyond-the-design-basis accidentsbasis accidents of low probabilityof low probability..

Insurance of such risks should be performed solely Insurance of such risks should be performed solely out of accumulative funds of the producerout of accumulative funds of the producer. .

However, it can be guaranteed for a long-term However, it can be guaranteed for a long-term period only at the state’s involvement or through period only at the state’s involvement or through international guaranteesinternational guarantees..

At such organization, the insurance against At such organization, the insurance against environmental risks from energy technologies is not environmental risks from energy technologies is not economically burdensome.economically burdensome.