Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Environnement Canada Service Météorologique du...

Environment CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada

Environnement CanadaService Météorologique du Canada

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Progress in Forecasting and Product Generation

Friends/Partners in Aviation WeatherLas Vegas, NevadaOctober 13, 2004

Joanne Lancaster – Meteorological Service of Canada



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• The Meteorological Service of Canada• Services to NAV CANADA• Other aviation initiatives

• What are we doing in Canada?• Forecast Production• Other Initiatives

• Future Work

Presentation Outline



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• The MSC is part of the Government of Canada (Department of Environment)

• MSC Funding:• From parliament (A-base component)• Cost Recovered Services

• Services to NAV CANADA are fully cost recovered• The MSC produces most of the aviation weather forecasts

(annual value $9.3 million) through a full cost recovery product and service contract with NAV CANADA (annual value $20.2 million).

The Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC)



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Forecast Production Services to NAV CANADA

CMAC-East

•CCFP

•North Atlantic Turbulence

•TAFS

•GFA

CMAC-West

•Canadian Turbulence Forecast

•TAFS

•GFA

Canadian Meteorological Centre

•Supercomputer

•VAAC

•ASEP

•AWWS

•R&D

2 Canadian Meteorological Aviation Centres - CMACs



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Other Services to NAV CANADA

Aviation Weather Observation Services

•maintenance, inspection, collection, processing, distribution, performance monitoring

Performance Measurement (TAFs)

Radar, Satellite, Lightning

Telecommunications

Aviation Weather Web Site (AWWS)



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Other Aviation Related Initiatives

Not all aviation related initiatives are cost recovered, i.e. the MSC is supporting some aviation related initiatives via A-base funding, where it is consistent with the MSC mandate to do so.

•AMDAR - data link weather information from aircraft in flight

•Aircraft Icing Research Study (AIRS II)

•Aerodrome forecast performance metrics to support more fuel

efficient flight operations, thereby reducing green house gas emissions



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Forecast Production

Automated Supplementary En-route weather Prediction (ASEP)

• Automated (model output) graphic forecasts of turbulence, winds and temperatures en-route, cloud, icing, isobaric pattern

• Developed and maintained by the MSC Canadian Meteorological Centre for NAV CANADA

• Currently staged for training of NAV CANADA FSS

• Accessible via the Aviation Weather Web Site (AWWS) and to NAV CANADA Flight Information Centres (FICs) via dedicated relay



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Forecast ProductionCollaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP)

Supporting efficient cross-

border routing of aircraft.

Approximately 80 aircraft

on CAN-1 on this day

Canadian portion – produced by the CMAC-East in Montreal



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Forecast Production

Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS)

•Yellow=Canadian radars

•Red= Addl. NEXRADs to be added to CIWS network in 2004

•Green= “CAN” playbook routes 1, 5 and 7

Data from 5 MSC RADAR covers the Canadian (off-load) Routes



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Aerodrome Forecast Quality/Reliability Improvement

• TAF Quality/Reliability• Current measured metrics say we’re not getting better; measures are

not easy to understand or interpret; no one really uses them

• Measure what matters to the end-users; what affects the airlines decision making process

• Feedback to operations; so forecasters understand how their forecast impact decision making process

• Current MSC, NC initiative with funding from Program for Energy Reduction and Development

• Engaging the end-users in the process; providing in-kind support

• Focusing on the issue at an upcoming aviation workshop

• Funding R&D (statistical methods, fuzzy logic) with goal to improve quality

Forecast Production



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Development of an Aviation Lab within the MSC

• Support the responsibilities of several government departments, particularly Transport and National Defense who have mandated responsibilities for aviation meteorology

• Demonstrate a commitment to the future of the MSC aviation forecasting offices and personnel, and ensure that the MSC remains a world-class aviation weather service provider

• Collaborate with other national and international R&D efforts in aviation meteorology and with other severe weather R&D programs

• Provide an appropriate venue for the testing and development of aviation forecasting tools and to facilitate technology transfer/linkage back to operations

Other Initiatives



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Future Work?Focus on coordinated efforts where it makes sense to do so

Continue to focus on x-border commonality and integration of products

Broaden our understanding of how Canadian forecasts impact end-users

Work with end users to provide them with the right information to support their decision making processes



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Merci Beaucoup * Thank You!Merci Beaucoup * Thank You!

Contact Information:Contact Information:Joanne LancasterJoanne Lancaster

Chief, Client ServicesChief, Client Services

(613) 995-4976(613) 995-4976

[email protected]@ec.gc.ca



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MSC’s Canadian Meteorological Aviation Centre - West (Edmonton)

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