2016 ENV Ministerial - Penny Johnes - UK - Nitrogen - Breakout session
Env & Society Today’s Offerings General Essay Feedback (marked forms available at lecture end)...
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Transcript of Env & Society Today’s Offerings General Essay Feedback (marked forms available at lecture end)...
Env & Society Today’s Offerings
• General Essay Feedback (marked forms available at lecture end)• Review of UK SD political context • Case Study – UK Upland Management Research – Rural Economy & Land Use (RELU) studies• For Monday – full course review & exam guidance
Essay Feedback / Advice!
• A good range of marks from 35 (failing) to 75 (First class) - Mean, = 58.4 (s.d. = 6.5); includes 6 Firsts!
• Introduction needs to include statement of essay aim that links to the specific Q set
• Structure needed to match the focus of the Q - too many were all I know about …. Or all I can paste about …
• Your analysis of secondary material (usually at end of a paragraph) is ESSENTIAL to show understanding & flow of argument in essay IN YOUR OWN WORDS!!
• Need to use academic journal sources NOT just web / wikepedia etc.
• Must accept complexity of issue & avoid simplistic views• Referencing was poor in text & (in most cases) would need to
improve to avoid loss of marks on future coursework
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
See – www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
Adapting to future change in the Peak District
A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
• UK Sustainable Development Strategy and links to research agendas / local level management initiatives
• A Practical Example of Applied Interdisciplinary Research Project focused on Sustainable Land Management in UK
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
UK Sustainable Development Policy and Research
• Set of 3 lectures (previous 2 & this 1) designed to offer an overview of challenges in applying UK Sustainable Development policy at a local / institutional level & guide you on how research can better inform this process
• UK Government published latest ‘Sustainable Development Strategy’ in March 2005, together with a joint publication (with Scottish Exec, Welsh Assembly & N.I. Office) ‘One Future – different paths: the UK’s shared framework for sustainable development’
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
UK Sustainable Development Policy – Guiding Principles
•
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
UK Sustainable Development Policy – Shared Priorities
• Sustainable Consumption & Production – “more with less”
• Climate Change & Energy – “set a good example”
• Natural Resource Protection & Environmental Enhancement – “need a better understanding and a more integrated policy framework”
• Sustainable Communities – “give communities more power and say in the decisions that affect them”
See - http://www.sustainable-development.gov.uk/index.htm
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
UK SD Policy – Natural Resource Protection & Env Enhancement
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
UK SD Policy – What’s Behind the Rhetoric?
• Policy statements include excellent words, but policies and practice need much greater monitoring.
• One way to achieve this is by the use of Sustainable Development Indicators (68 identified by UK Govt)
• Needs local level projects and case-study based research (such as we provide here!?)
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
Our Case Study Example – Peak District National Park
• What problems / SD issues do you associate with Peak District National Park / upland Britain?
• Environmental –
• Social –
• Economic -
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
Andy Dougill & Mark Reed (together with 10 others from Leeds, Sheffield and Durham
Universities AND support of Moors for the Future in Castleton)
Adapting to future change in the Peak District
A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
• One year Scoping Study Overview
• The next stage – 3 year follow on project funded – aims
• Moving ‘Collaborative Learning’ Process forward
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
Adapting to future change in the Peak District
• Research Councils UK & DEFRA / SEERAD co-sponsored a £20 million research programme on ‘Rural Economy and Land Use’ (RELU) – www.relu.ac.uk
• Interdisciplinary research is being funded 2004-2009 in order to inform future policy and practice with choice on how to manage the UK countryside and rural economies
• Themes include – sustainable food chains, animal and plant diseases & people and the rural environment
Andy DougillWith:
Mark Reed, Klaus Hubacek, Tim Burt, Pippa Chapman,Evan Fraser, Joseph Holden, Mike Kirkby, Christina Prell, Jan Sendzimir, Laura Shotbolt, Sigrid Stagl, Lindsay Stringer, Andy Turner, Fred Worrall
Managing Uncertainty in Dynamic Socio-Environmental
Systems:An Application to UK
Uplands
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
Sustainable UplandsSustainable Upland Management For Multiple Benefits
A joint Research Councils Scoping Study co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
• Uplands provide a range of goods and services…
Case Study Backgroundwww.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
•Drinking water
A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
•Biodiversity
A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
•Carbon
A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
•Education
A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
•Recreation
A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
•Hunting
A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
•Farming
A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
•But Britain’s uplands environment is subject to change…
Upland Challengeswww.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
• Historic pollution
A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
• Current land use
A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
• Burning regulations
A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
• Common Agriculture Policy reform
A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
• Water Framework Directive implementation
A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
• Kyoto Protocol
A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
• Cultural, social and demographic change
A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
• Goal: to help people better anticipate, monitor and adapt to rural change in UK uplands
• Visions for a sustainable future from multiple users• Barriers, uncertainties, driving forces re:
environmental, economic and social change• Adaptive responses to rural change scenarios in
uplands
Study Aims
A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
• Goal: To develop tools and methods for stakeholder involvement
• by including stakeholders at the outset• And throughout the process• Including evaluation and analyses
Case Study Aims
A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
• Two-way learning and meaningful interaction between: i) different stakeholder groups
ii) social and natural scientists
iii) stakeholders and researchers
Study Aims
A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
•Adaptation to CAP reform?•Knowledge integration for WFD Programmes of Measures? •Carbon storage?•Can integration of knowledge sources reduce stakeholder conflict and identify innovative adaptations that could not be developed by any group alone?
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
Research Needs (2 of 2)
Scenarios Scenarios & Indicators& Indicators
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
• Focus Group with local NGOs and key stakeholders
i) Context & Goals (1 of 3) .
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
• Scoping interviews (triangulate stakeholder categories and goals)
i) Context & Goals (2 of 3) .
– Narrower focus
– Contribute to DEFRA’s Heather & Grass Burning Code revision
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
• Preliminary conceptual model of system
+
i) Context & Goals (3 of 3) .
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
• Semi-structured interviews: visions, drivers, indicators• Grounded Theory Analysis
ii) Scenarios & indicators (1 of 4)
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
• Combine preliminary conceptual model with:• Results from GT analysis of semi-structured interviews • Literature review (Shotbolt et al. in prep.; Stringer et
al. 2006)
ii) Scenarios & indicators (2 of 4)
ii) Scenarios & indicators (2 of 4)
Managedburns overless area
No changein managed
burns
Defra Burning Code Re
view
10% leftunburned
Blanket BogBurning Ban
ShorterBurningSeason
Increasedbiodiversity
More birdsof prey
Less grouse
Lessshooting
days
Futureshooting ban
Increasedanimal rights
activism
Lower economic returns from grouse
Less moorland managed for grouse
Smaller rurallabour pool
Demographic change
Culturalchange
Conservation priorities
More longheather
Less shortheather
Lessground-nesti
ng birds
BLANKET BOGDRY HEATH (or if
hydrology not restored)
More scrub
Morebroadleaf
forest
Moreaccidental
fires
If no firebreaks
If hydrologyrestored
Climate Change to warm
er/drier
dryer conditions - specie
s change
Lowerwater table
Uncertainbiodiversity
Less erosion Less watercolour
Moreerosion
More watercolour
Lessvegetation
cover
Lessattractivelandscape
Moreattractivelandscape
In valleys only
On plateaux
More waterpollution
Atmospheric deposition
Afforestation schemes
WaterFramework
DirectiveProgrammesof Measures
Coniferreplacement
schemesDesire to
keep grouseshooting
Desire tokeep hillsheep
Burningtechnologyadvances
Traditionalrural cultural
values
CAP reform
Single farmpayment
Environmental Stewardship Scheme
Entry-LevelScheme
High-LevelScheme
Hill sheepless
profitable
Less gamekeepering
Rural-urbanmigration
Ageing ruralpopulation
Less interestin rural
livelihoods
Less grazingLess hillsheep
Agriculturalmarkets
No changein hill sheep
Declining market
Improvingmarket
Diversification?
No changein fringe
biodiversity
Concentrateon moorland
fringe
With less managedburns and noshepharding
Ecologicalrestoration
Raisedwater table
Hydrological restoration
Desire tokeep openlandscape
Recreationalpriorities
Moreburning days
Morecontrol ofburning
Lessaccidental
fires
No changeaccidental
fires
Less bareground
Irreversiblevegetation
loss
Decrease inbiodiversity
Of acidifyingsubstances (S
& N)
Atmosphericdeposition ofnutrients (N)
change inspecies
composition
incr. heather
decr. grasses incr. fireintolerantspecies
moreblanket bog
species
more herbs
more heather
i
less 'flashy'hydrology
loss ofombrotrophi
c species
• Triangulate conceptual model with stakeholders
(Work in progress)
Changes in attitudes towards shooting
Cultural Change Scenario Ia
Increased Animal Rights Activism
Shooting ban
Less shooting days or disrupted shoots
Cultural Change Scenario IbLess shooting days or disrupted shoots
Less economic returns
Less moorlands managed for grouse
Less game keeping
Fewer and smaller managed burns
See Conservation Scenario Ib “less burned areas”
On Blanket Bog
(If hydrology restored)
Conservation Scenario IbLess burned areas
Increased heather
Decreased grass
Increased fire-intolerant species
Increased biodiversity
On Dry Heath (or if hydrology not restored)
Less short heather
Less ground nesting birds
Less grouse
Less shooting
Go to cultural change scenario Ib “Less economic returns”
More long heather
Uncertain effect on biodiversity
More birds of prey
See next slide
On Dry Heath (or if hydrology not restored)
Less burned areas
More scrub
More broad leafed forest
Less “flashy” hydrology
More attractive landscape
Less attractive landscape
More accidental Fires
Less vegetation
More erosion
More water colour/pollution
Conservation Scenario Ic
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
• Storyboards presented at focus groups
ii) Scenarios & indicators (4 of 4)
Tress B, Tress G (2003) Scenario visualisation for participatory landscape planning: a study from Denmark, Landscape and Urban Planning 64: 161–178
• Evaluate & short-list indicators from interviews & literature
• Used in models
• Used by stakeholders
• Scenario’s to vote on in Edale Moorland Centre
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
• Focus groups: evaluate and short-list scenarios• Management responses to scenarios• Integrated modelling of management responses & indicators• Feedback outputs to focus groups and refine• Short-list most appropriate options
iii) Adaptive responses
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
iv) Learning Process (1 of 3) .
• Every step of this research is designed to promote learning between: i) different stakeholders; ii) researchers from different disciplines; iii) researchers & stakeholders
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
• Initial analysis suggests a number of powerful, respected and influential individuals have less extreme views: foci for mediation and diffusion of ideas/attitudes?
iv) Learning Process (2 of 3) .
Conservation/ Water
FarmingGrouse
• Testing: Social Network Analysis
• Effect of focus group interactions on social networks?
• Who are the central actors?• Who do people trust, share
views with, work with?• Are there groups that are
particularly isolated or poorly connected?
iv) Learning Process (3 of 3) .
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
What did we learn?
• We know the cliques and powerful individuals
•Help us in deciding who should be in our future focus group
• Even though burning is a contentious issue there is common ground on wider issues
A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
• “You can’t get anywhere unless you build up a good relationship with somebody… If you can’t build good working relationships, you might as well go home.”
Conservation Stakeholder
A joint Research Councils Research Project co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
Sustainable UplandsSustainable Upland Management For Multiple Benefits
A joint Research Councils Scoping Study co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
Scoping Study Outputs (1 of 3)
Policy:• Methodological framework to predict, monitor and
manage social, economic and environmental change in uplands
• Provide voice for stakeholders to policy-makers• In particular through input to DEFRA’s burning code
review
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
Sustainable UplandsSustainable Upland Management For Multiple Benefits
A joint Research Councils Scoping Study co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
Scoping Study Outputs (2 of 3)
Stakeholders:• Dissemination of likely future scenarios and adaptive
management ideas• Information exchange between stakeholder groups• Moors for the Future partnership: strengthened and
extended stakeholder network
www.env.leeds.ac.uk/sustainableuplands
Sustainable UplandsSustainable Upland Management For Multiple Benefits
A joint Research Councils Scoping Study co-sponsored
by DEFRA & SEERAD
Scoping Study Outputs (3 of 3)Academic:• Methodological framework • Interdisciplinary capacity building• National and international conferences• Papers: 2 in press, 2 in prep., 1 more planned
Reed MS, Fraser EDG & Dougill AJ (in press) An adaptive learning process for developing and applying sustainability indicators with local communities, forthcoming in Ecological Economics
Reed MS, Fraser EDG, Morse S & Dougill AJ (in press) Integrating methods for developing sustainability indicators that can facilitate learning and action, forthcoming in Ecology & Society
Stringer LC, Prell C, Reed MS, Hubacek K et al. [tbc] (in prep.) Unpacking "participation" in the adaptive management of socio-ecological systems: a critical reveiw. Submitting to Journal of Rural Studies
Shotbolt, L., Holden, J., Reed, MS., Stringer, L., Chapman, PJ., Dougill, A., Kirkby, M.J., and Hubacek, K. (in prep.). Scenarios of upland change: reviewing the evidence. Submitting to Environmental Conservation
•Ongoing Research Case Study - Learning from Doing Participatory Rural Research: Lessons from the Peak District National Park, UK •Next (ongoing) stage is the move beyond conceptual models to more formal mathematical (agent-based & environmental) models for predicting future implications of land use change in UK uplands
School of Earth and EnvironmentFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
Scenarios Scenarios & Indicators& Indicators
System boundaries & local research
foci
Social Network Maps
Interviews
Current & Future Drivers
Sustainability Goals
Sustainability Indicators
Conceptual model & qualitative scenarios
Quantitative, spatially explicit scenarios
Model outputs for strategies
Stakeholder-Led Site Visits
Draft Concept-ual Model
Stakeholders identified,
described & categorised
Stakeholder revisions & priorities
Innovative management
strategies
ContextContext
Management Management OptionsOptions
Advisory Panel & Co-I
Meetings
Literature Review: key drivers, system components & research foci
ABM rules
Stakeholder evaluations
of model outputs
Refined strategies
Social Learning
Short-List Options
Management & Policy Recommendations
12
Goals, Scenarios & Goals, Scenarios & IndicatorsIndicators
Social Network Data
Grounded Theory
Analysis
Review, test &
short-list indicators
Social Network Analysis
Stakeholder Selection
Evaluate
learning
Focus Group
Run model
Run model
Focus Group
GIS & photo manipulation
Questionnaires
Stakeholder Analysis
Focus Group
Scoping Interviews
Academic Focus Group
Illustrated story-lines
Follow-up interviews
PESERA parameters
Integrated computational
model
Model development
Stakeholder Selection
Next slide
Activities
OutputsKey:
ABM rules
Conceptual model
Agent-Based Model
Future land use GIS
maps
Erosion maps
Water quality
Carbon budget
Soil Organic Matter maps
Initial land use & cover maps
Regional economic
effects
Water quantity
estimates
Soil type, topography, climate etc.
Vegetation cover & biomass
maps
Water quality monitoring
Analysis of questionnaire
s
ABM questionnaire
Run PESERA
Run regional economic
model
Extend PESERA
Run ABM for different
scenarios
Carbon model calibration & validation
Model Model DevelopmentDevelopment
Parameterise PESERA
Run economic, biophysical & ecological
models
1
2
Environmental & economic
implications of scenarios
Scenarios & storylines
Management strategies
Run integrated
model
Focus groups identify & refine strategies
using model outputsActivities
OutputsKey:
Integrated Computational
Model
Distribution maps for BAP focal
spp.
Focal species modelling
Meta-population capacity
modelling
Succ-ession Model
Biodiversity maps
Habitat maps
Grouse Model
Grouse production forecasts
•Ongoing Research Questions •Will this level of integrated modelling add to the predictive power & strength of research arguments significantly enough to justify the extra 3 years of interdisciplinary research effort (c. £800k) ?•Would a larger number of smaller scale studies based on conceptual modelling & participatory methods be more cost-effective?•How much use are the methodological lessons learnt to research in other environments and societal contexts?
School of Earth and EnvironmentFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
•Future Research Challenges for UK Uplands•Quantitative modelling of the various socio-economic & environmental implications of different future scenario’s will require significant interdisciplinary effort between modelling research groups (3 RA’s each with their own disciplinary expertise)
•=> will we all return to our disciplinary ‘comfort zone’?•Retaining engagement of stakeholders as scientific complexity increases will require careful use of identified social networks & dissemination through key local individuals (ie. stakeholder – stakeholder shared learning is more powerful than researcher – stakeholder transfer of knowledge)
Will stakekolders stay engaged despite lack of tangible personal benefits?
Transfer of methodology to 3 other Upland locations in UK & to EU DESIRE project sites across Sn Europe, China & Africa
=> How transferable are approaches?
School of Earth and EnvironmentFACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT