ENSO UpdateENSO Update

Michelle L’Heureux

Team Members: Mike Halpert, Wanqiu Wang, Yan Xue, Gerry Bell, Zeng-Zhen Hu, Vern Kousky, Wayne Higgins, and Arun Kumar

NOAA Climate Prediction Center9 February 2011

Weekly ENSO Update(updated Monday mornings -- or Tuesday if a holiday)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml#discussion

• Displays weekly and monthly analyses of various oceanic and atmospheric variables, model forecasts, etc.

• Provided in PDF and PPT formats

ENSO Alert System Status

Link to Spanish TranslationSynopsis Statement

Describe oceanic and atmospheric conditions from previous month

Describe model outlooks and provide the forecast

Describe potential U.S. and Global Impacts

Monthly ENSO Diagnostics Discussion(updated each Thursday between the 3rd and 10th of the month)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml

• The primary vehicle to update the status and forecast for ENSO

Niño Region SST Departures (oC) Recent Evolution

The latest weekly SST departures are:

Niño 4 -1.3ºC

Niño 3.4 -1.7ºC

Niño 3 -1.4ºC

Niño 1+2 0.0ºC

SST Departures (oC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks

During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C below average between 160°E and 100°W, with a few small regions more than 2.0°C below average in the central Pacific.

Weekly Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Average Temperature Anomalies

Large positive anomalies associated with El Niño decreased beginning in late February 2010, becoming negative in late April. The negative anomalies since June 2010 are consistent with La Niña. Since the beginning of January 2011, the negative anomalies have weakened.

Equatorial upper-ocean temperature anomalies (°C) 180-100°W

• Since May 2010, negative subsurface temperature anomalies have dominated much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

• Positive subsurface anomalies have gradually strengthened in the western and central Pacific at depth (100-300m).

• The most recent pattern of subsurface temperature anomalies is similar to that observed since early December 2010, except the region of positive anomalies has shifted eastward.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (oC) in the Equatorial Pacific

Most recent pentad analysisLongitude

Time

Tropical OLR and Wind AnomaliesDuring the Last 30 Days

Upper-level (200-hPa) westerly anomalies were observed over much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Anomalous cyclonic circulation centers are evident in the subtropics of both hemispheres, which is consistent with La Niña.

Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located over Southeast Asia, the Philippines, Indonesia, and northern Australia. Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were located over the western and central equatorial Pacific.

Low-level (850-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed over the western and central equatorial Pacific.

C

C

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 18 January 2011).

• Nearly all models indicate that La Niña is near its peak and will last well into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011.• Considerable uncertainty is evident during the Northern Hemisphere summer and fall, but a majority of models indicate ENSO-neutral conditions (Niño-3.4 SST anomalies between -0.5°C and +0.5°C ).

Last 90 days stacked up against La Nina Composite

November – January Observed Precip November-January Averaged Precip during La Nina

Last 90 days stacked up against La Nina Composite

November-January Averaged Temp during La NinaNovember – January Observed Temp

The seasonal outlooks combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture, and, when appropriate, the ENSO cycle.

Temperature Precipitation

U. S. Seasonal OutlooksFebruary - April 2011

Recent Upgrades

(1) IRI is providing multi-model forecasts on the plume (simple average of dynamical and statistical models and the CPC “CON” or Consolidation). This is a first step in the right direction …

(2)Box and whisker plots showing the shift in Temperature and Precipitation (between 5-95%-tile) for U.S. climate divisions.

(3)Transitioning to CFS.v2 and CFSR products

How Can We Improve our Ability to Monitor and Predict the El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?

[These are ongoing efforts that must be supported. The ENSO prediction “problem” is NOT solved]

(1) Improve Dynamical and Statistical Models (still poor at capturing ENSO transitions and amplitude) . Model resolution upgrades are not a panacea.

(2) Better Analysis and Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and other modes of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability

(3)Provide Multi-Model combinations based on hindcast histories (enables creation of objective probabilistic forecast products)

(4) Implementation of State-of-the-art Monitoring Systems to Enhance the Quality of Atmospheric and Oceanic Data Sets.

(5)Need to improve understanding of the influence of long-term oceanic and atmospheric trends on ENSO and its associated impacts over the U.S. and globe.

Potential Operational Improvements that are more practical in the short-term, but remain just out of reach

(1) ENSO dissemination to users via “new media” (RSS feeds, Twitter, etc)

(2) Modernize ENSO weekly update ppt/pdf to sleeker design

(3) When there is an ENSO event, the capability to do real-time documentation/attribution of ENSO impacts on the U.S. and globe

Thanks… Any Questions?

Feel free to Email: Michelle.LHeureux@noaa.gov