ENSO  teleconnec,ons  and  how  it  might  change    with  global  warming  

Sang-­‐Wook  Yeh  Hanyang  University  

! ENSO  Teleconnec,ons

Alexander  et  al.,  (2000)

Horel  and  Wallace  (1981)

Lau  (1997)

! Open  ques,ons

(1)  How  the  teleconnec,ons  are  sensi,ve  to  the  ENSO  forcing  in  terrms  of  its  spa$al  structure,  evoltuion,  and  intensity?    

(2)  How  the  ENSO  teleconnec,ons  are  modulated  by  the  other  ocean  ?  

(3)  The  change  of  ENSO  teleconnec$ons  in  response  to  global  warming    

(1) How  the  teleconnec,ons  are  sensi,ve  to  the  ENSO  forcing  in  terrms  of  its  spa$al  structure,  evoltuion,  and  intensity?    

(1)  How  the  teleconnec,ons  are  sensi,ve  to  the  ENSO  forcing  in  terrms  of  its  spa$al  structure,  evoltuion,  and  intensity?  

Yeh  et  al.  (2009)  El  Nino  in  a  changing  climate

Eastern  Pacific  (EP)  El  Nino Central  Pacific  (CP)  El  Nino

500hPa  geopoten,al  height

Graf  and  ZancheYn  (2012):  Central  Pacific  El  Nino,  the  ‘subtropical  bridge”  and  Eurasian  climate  J.  Geophy.  Res.

(1)  How  the  teleconnec,ons  are  sensi,ve  to  the  ENSO  forcing  in  terrms  of  its  spa$al  structure,  evoltuion,  and  intensity?  

EP  El  Nino CP  El  Nino

Cai  et  al.,  (2010):  Asymmetry  in  ENSO  teleconnec,on  with  regional  rainfall,  its  mul,decadal  variability,    and  impact.  J.  Climate.  

(1)  How  the  teleconnec,ons  are  sensi,ve  to  the  ENSO  forcing  in  terrms  of  its  spa$al  structure,  evoltuion,  and  intensity?  

Lee  (2014):  Teleconnec,ons  and  impacts  of  ENSO  diversity,  U.S.  CLIVAR

Lee  et  al.,  (2014):  Spring,me  ENSO  phase  evolu,on  and  its  rela,on  to  rainfall  in  the  con,nental  US    Geophy.  Res.  Lebs.

(1)  How  the  teleconnec,ons  are  sensi,ve  to  the  ENSO  forcing  in  terrms  of  its  spa$al  structure,  evoltuion,  and  intensity?  

(1)  How  the  teleconnec,ons  are  sensi,ve  to  the  ENSO  forcing  in  terrms  of  its  spa$al  structure,  evoltuion,  and  intensity?  

(1)  How  the  teleconnec,ons  are  sensi,ve  to  the  ENSO  forcing  in  terrms  of  its  spa$al  structure,  evoltuion,  and  intensity?  

Discussion  1

Global  warming

Changes  in  ENSO  spa,al  structure,  evolu,on  and  intensity

Changes  in  the  ENSO  teleconnec,ons  

(2)  How  the  ENSO  teleconnec,ons  are  modulated  by  the  other  ocean  ?  

(2)  How  the  ENSO  teleconnec,ons  are  modulated  by  the  other  ocean  ?

Gershunov  and  Barneb,  (1998).  Interdecadal  modula,on  of  ENSO  teleconnec,ons.  BAMS.

(2)  How  the  ENSO  teleconnec,ons  are  modulated  by  the  other  ocean  ?

Nega,ve  phase  of  PDO Posi,ve  phase  of  PDO

Diaz  et  al.  (2001)  ENSO  variability,  teleconnec,ons  and  climate  change,  Int.  J.  Climatol.  

(2)  How  the  ENSO  teleconnec,ons  are  modulated  by  the  other  ocean  ?

Kim  et  al.  (2014):  Combined  effect  of  ENSO  and  PDO  on  the  East  Asian  winter  monsoon.  Clim.  Dyna.

(2)  How  the  ENSO  teleconnec,ons  are  modulated  by  the  other  ocean  ?

Ham  et  al.  (2014):  Role  of  Tropical  Atlan,c  SST  variability  as  a  modulator  of  El  Nino  teleconnec,ons  Asia-­‐Paci.  J.  Atmos.  Sci.  

(2)  How  the  ENSO  teleconnec,ons  are  modulated  by  the  other  ocean  ?

Discussion  2

(1)  How  the  ENSO-­‐PDO  rela,onship  would  be  changed  under  global  warming?    

(2)  How  the  ENSO-­‐Atlan,c  SST  rela,onship  would  be  changed  under  global  warming  ?  

Discussion  2-­‐1

(1)  How  the  ENSO-­‐PDO  rela,onship  would  be  changed  under  global  warming?    

An  in-­‐phase  rela,onship  of  ENSO-­‐PDO  would  be  increased  under  gloal  warming,  therefore,  one  may  expect  stronger  ENSO  teleconnec,ons  in  the  midla,tudes  

Kwon  et  al.  (2013):  Changes  in  the  linear  rela,onship  of  under  the  global  warming.  Int.  J.  Climatol.

20C3M SRESA1B

(3)  The  change  of  ENSO  teleconnec$ons  in  response  to  global  warming    

(3)  The  change  of  ENSO  teleconnec$ons    in  response  to  global  warming  

Kug  et  al.,  (2010):  Changes  in  El  Nino  and  La  Nina  teleconnec,ons  over  North  Pacific-­‐America  in  the  global  warming  simula,ons.  Theor.  Appl.  Climatol.

(3)  The  change  of  ENSO  teleconnec$ons    in  response  to  global  warming  

(3)  The  change  of  ENSO  teleconnec$ons    in  response  to  global  warming  

Discussion  3

Q1]  The  non-­‐linearity  would  be  enhanced  or  reduced  under  global  warming?  

Q2]  How  the  deep  convec$on  in  the  tropics  would  be  changed  under  global  warming?  

ENSO, its precursor, and their change under global warming

You are cordially invited to submit a paper for presentation in the session on “ENSO, its precursor, and their change under global warming” at the AGU Fall meeting at San Francisco 15 – 19 December 2014.

As of summer 2014, most operational centers have predicted moderate-to-strong El Niño to develop into the 2014-15 winter. The ocean and atmospheric conditions leading up to this developing El Niño, namely the ENSO precursor pattern, have been observed and monitored since the winter of 2013-14.  The processes leading to the formation of such precursor pattern are manifold and complex, and have been observed to undergo certain changes during the 1970s owing to both natural and anthropogenic forcing mechanisms.  The goal of this session is to assemble physical evidence of, and address mechanisms for, any changes in the ENSO precursor pattern and how such changes affect the future development of ENSO.  Subjects of interest include recent findings on any form of ENSO precursor patterns, their climate impacts, advancement in ENSO forecasting, and attribution of any change in the ENSO behavior.    

Thank  you

Discussion  1

Global  warming

Changes  in  ENSO  spa,al  structure,  evolu,on  and  intensity

Changes  in  the  ENSO  teleconnec,ons  

Changes  in  Other  Ocean  SST  

Present  climate

Future  climate

(3)  The  change  of  ENSO  teleconnec$ons    in  response  to  global  warming  

Kwon  et  al.,  (2013):  Changes  in  the  linear  rela,onship  of  ENSO-­‐PDO  under  the  global  warming,  Int.  J.    Climatology.