Ensembling Mesoscale Model Data
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Ensembling Mesoscale Ensembling Mesoscale Model DataModel Data
National Weather Service, Cleveland, OHNational Weather Service, Cleveland, OH
ChristopherChristopher Mello Mello
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• The goal of this presentation is to describe WRF ensembling software that produces an ensemble for OPERATIONAL use across a computer network with limited bandwidth resources.
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Motivation for Software ?Motivation for Software ?
• There was a need to share large amounts of model data between NOAA NWS offices with limited computer and bandwidth resources.
• There was an operational requirement to present all this model data in timely and precise manner to weather forecasters.
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Current model configurationsCurrent model configurations
4 per day4 per day
4 per day4 per day
4 per day4 per day
--
4 per day4 per day
2 per day2 per day
Run TimesRun Times
FerrierFerrierNAMNAMARWARWBGMBGM
LynnLynnNAMNAMARWARWALYALY
LynnLynnGFSGFSARWARWCLECLE
FerrierFerrierGFSGFSNMMNMMBTV*BTV*
LynnLynnNAMNAMNMMNMMCTPCTP
FerrierFerrierGFSGFSNMMNMMBUF*BUF*
MicrophysicsMicrophysicsBoundary Boundary ConditionsConditions
Model CoreModel CoreOfficeOffice
Note: BUF is running the KF CPS, BTV is running BMJ.
Ensemble Example Ensemble Example
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Ensemble Ensemble Domain Domain
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WRF model WRF model
• Locally produced WRF mesoscale model data grib files contain over 700 fields and are too large to transport across the NOAA NWS computer network due to bandwidth Issues
• However, the vast majority of the fields are considered not directly useful for operational weather forecasting
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What was the best way to What was the best way to present data to forecasters?present data to forecasters?
• Mean fields were operationally the easiest method to get data directly to forecasters due to the current state of NWS software.
• Probability fields fields were created as secondary fields but due to the current state of NWS software could not be easily ingested into current NWS forecast software
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What data is the most important for What data is the most important for forecasters?forecasters?
• A default list of 52 critical operational meteorological fields from the WRF model was created using input from six NWS WFO sites.
• At least 40 additional fields could be derived later using current image generating software
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Mean Fields
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Probability Fields
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CLENSEMBLE uses GEMPAK CLENSEMBLE uses GEMPAK
• GEMPAK software was used to create the ensemble due to cost and the teams experience using the software.
• GEMPAK Developers continue to add new ensemble functionality.
• The direct access to developers made trouble shooting GEMPAK problems easier.
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Part One:Dissect softwarePart One:Dissect software
• The dissect software is required to reformat each ensemble member’s grib files to a GEMPAK format
• The domain and grid spacing of the final ensemble has to be defined in a configuration file.
• The dissect software will resize each member’s domain and spacing to the domain of the ensemble
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• 52 fields are extracted
• The files are approximately 5 % of the original size
Part One:Dissect softwarePart One:Dissect software
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Part Two: Create Ensemble Part Two: Create Ensemble
• Ten WRF members can be placed in an ensemble at a time
• When creating means fields, each ensemble member is given a weight from 0 % to 100 % in a configuration file
• The total weights of all the members must equal 100 %
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The previous runs can be included if the data are available
The data output of the mean ensemble fields is in three different formats; GEMPAK, grib1 and grib2 format.
Grads imaging software is included to create gif images of the mean fields
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Mean surface wind in NWS GFE software
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Probability fieldsProbability fields
• The probability fields are produced as gif images
• Each model member is weighted equally
• Future upgrade will included 6, 12 and 24 hour QPF probabilities fields in grib2 format
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Probability of small craft Probability of small craft advisory windsadvisory winds
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Probability of getting .05 inches Probability of getting .05 inches
through 30 hours through 30 hours
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SummarySummary
• CLENSEMBLE is an operational tool to provide real time model data to forecasters
• CLENSEMBLE provides forecasters with approximately 100 fields
• National Weather Service Offices can share resources with forecasters
• The academic community can also provide NWS forecasters real time model data
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……Continued…Continued…
• Also 6,12, and 24 probability fields will be provided in a future release
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FinallyFinally
• The software is in a developmental state and input to improve future builds is welcome.
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AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements
• Robert Laplante SOO Cleveland NWS
• Dan Leins WRF focal point CLE NWS
• Ron Murphy ITO BGM
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The End…The End…
Thank you
Questions, Comments, Concerns…
Feel free to e-mail