Enrollment Projections Report - BoardDocs · 2016. 11. 17. · 3325 Hilliard Rome Road Hilliard,...

3325 Hilliard Rome Road

Hilliard, Ohio 43026

P: 614.798.8828 f: 614.798.8839

www.dejongrichter.com

Enrollment Projections Report

November 28, 2016


11/28/2016 1

Table of Contents

Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................................ 2

Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 3

Enrollment Projection Methodology ............................................................................................................. 4

U.S. Census ........................................................................................................................................................ 7

General Demographics.................................................................................................................................. 13

Housing Data .................................................................................................................................................... 15

Open Enrollment .............................................................................................................................................. 16

Projected Enrollment District-wide (by where students attend) .............................................................. 17

Live Birth Data ..................................................................................................................................... 18

Survival Ratios ..................................................................................................................................... 20

Historical Enrollment ........................................................................................................................... 21

Projected Enrollment—Low .............................................................................................................. 22

Projected Enrollment—Moderate ................................................................................................... 23

Projected Enrollment—High .............................................................................................................. 24

Projected Enrollment—Recommended ......................................................................................... 25

Projected Enrollment by 2019-20 Elementary Catchment Area .............................................................. 26

Live Birth Data ..................................................................................................................................... 27

Survival Ratios ..................................................................................................................................... 29

Historical Enrollment ........................................................................................................................... 30

Projected Enrollment—Low .............................................................................................................. 32

Projected Enrollment—Moderate ................................................................................................... 34

Projected Enrollment—High .............................................................................................................. 36

Projected Enrollment—Recommended ......................................................................................... 38

Enrollment by Elementary Catchment Area ................................................................................. 40

Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................................ 84

Appendix .......................................................................................................................................................... 86

Historical / Projected Enrollment by Junior High / High School Catchment ............................. 87


11/28/2016 2

Acknowledgements

On behalf of DeJONG-RICHTER, we would like to extend our appreciation to the Iowa City Community

School District for the opportunity to assist them in developing this Enrollment Projections Report. As a

planning team, we hope that this document will serve the Iowa City Community School District for years

to come.

DeJONG-RICHTER

Ann Hoffsis, REFP, Director of Enrollment Projection Services

3325 Hilliard Rome Road

Hilliard, Ohio 43026

P. 614-798-8828

www.dejongrichter.com


11/28/2016 3

Executive Summary

The enrollment projections for the Iowa City Community School District included in

this report were developed using the cohort survival methodology and DeJONG-

RICHTER’s custom enrollment projection software, S.T.E.P. [Student Trends &

Enrollment Projections]. This custom software was developed in collaboration with

The Ohio State University and is based on industry best practices as well as the

national experience DeJONG-RICHTER has with schools, school districts, and state

agencies.

The projections presented in this report are meant to serve as a planning tool for the

future, and represent the most likely direction of the District. Enrollment projections

were developed by analyzing the following data:

Live birth data by current and future elementary catchment areas

Historical enrollment by school

Historical enrollment by elementary catchment area

Census data

Building permits

Enrollment projections were developed by school, by grade based on historical enrollment of students

attending schools within the District. In addition, enrollment projections by grade were developed

based on students living within the 2019-20 elementary catchment areas.

As with any projection, the District should pay close attention to the variables associated with

determining enrollment projections discussed in this document. Any one or more of these factors can

increase or decrease enrollment within the Iowa City Community School District. It is recommended

that the data contained in this report be reviewed on an annual basis to determine how more recent

trends will impact both the enrollment and any new housing development.


11/28/2016 4

Enrollment Projection Methodology

Introduction

Tracing the landscape of the country’s public

school enrollment back over the past fifty years

reveals demographic, economic, and social

changes. The United States as a whole

continues to undergo major shifts in public

student enrollment, due in large part to past

events including the baby boom, the

availability and use of birth control, and the

development of suburbs. The baby boom of

the late 1940s and 50s was followed by the

baby bust of the 1960s and 70s. This gave rise

to the echo baby boom of the 1980s.

Nationwide, districts have experienced the

effects of the echo baby bust of the 1990s.

From the 1950s to the 1970s, a dramatic

downsizing of the family unit occurred. A direct

result was the declining school enrollment of the

1970s and 1980s. As of the 2010 Census, the size

of a family was at an all-time low of 3.14

persons. The live birth rate increased for the first

time in several years in 1998 and increased

again in 2000. However, the birth rate resumed

a descending pattern in 2001 and reached an

all-time low of 12.4 (per 1,000) in 2013.

When projecting future enrollments, it is vital to track the number of live births, the amount of new

housing activity, and the change in household composition. In addition, any of the following factors

could cause a significant change in projected student enrollment:

Boundary adjustments

New school openings

Changes/additions in program offerings

Preschool programs

Change in grade configuration

Interest rates/unemployment shifts

Magnet/Charter/Private school opening or

closure

Zoning changes

Unplanned new housing activity

Planned, but not built, housing

School voucher programs

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

U.S. Total Live Births

Boom

Bust

Echo

Boom Echo

Bust

Source: CDC, National Vital Statistics Report

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

U.S. Population - Live Birth Rate

per 1,000 Population

Source: CDC, National Vital Statistics Report


11/28/2016 5

Obviously, certain factors can be gauged and planned for far better than others. For instance, it may

be relatively straightforward to gather housing data from local builders regarding the total number of

lots in a planned subdivision and calculate the potential student yield. However, planning for changes

in the unemployment rate, and how these may either boost or reduce public school enrollment, proves

more difficult. In any case, it is essential to gather a wide variety of information in preparation for

producing enrollment projections.

When looking ahead at a school district’s enrollment over the next two, five, or ten years, it is helpful to

approach the process from a global perspective. For example: How many new homes have been

constructed each year? How many births have occurred each year in relation to the resident

population? Is housing experiencing a turnover—if so, what is the composition of families moving in/out?

Are more or less students attending private school or being home-schooled? What has the

unemployment rate trend been over the past ten years? What new educational policies are in place

that could affect student enrollment figures?

The cohort survival methodology is often used to answer these questions and is standard throughout the

educational planning industry. The enrollment projections developed for the Iowa City Community

School District were developed using the cohort survival method.


11/28/2016 6

Cohort Survival Method

A cohort is a group of persons [in this case, students]. The cohort survival enrollment projection

methodology uses historic live birth data and historic student enrollment to “age” a known population or

cohort throughout the school grades. For instance, a cohort begins when a group of kindergarteners

enrolls in grade K and moves to first grade the following year, second grade the next year, and so on.

A “survival ratio” is developed to track how this group of students increased or decreased in number as

they moved through the grade levels. By developing survival ratios for each grade transition [i.e. 2nd to

3rd grade] over a ten year period of time, patterns emerge and can be folded into projections by using

the survival ratio as a multiplier.

For example, if student enrollment has consistently increased from the 8th to the 9th grade over the past

ten years, the survival ratio would be greater than 100% and could be multiplied by the current 8th

grade to develop a projection for next year’s 9th grade. This methodology can be carried through to

develop ten years of projection figures. Because there is not a grade cohort to follow for students

coming into kindergarten, live birth counts are used to develop a survival ratio. Babies born five years

previous to the kindergarten class are compared in number, and a ratio can be developed to project

future kindergarten enrollments.

The cohort survival method is useful in areas where population is stable [relatively flat, growing steadily,

or declining steadily], and where there have been no significant fluctuations in enrollment, births, and

housing patterns from year to year.


11/28/2016 7

U.S. Census

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the

population in Johnson County, Iowa

increased from 111,006 to 130,882, or

approximately 18 percent, between the

2000 and 2010 Census.

In terms of school-aged children [5-19],

the population increased by 1,723, or 7

percent. The under age 5 population

increased from 6,428 to 8,075, or 26

percent.

The median age of a Johnson County,

Iowa resident is 29.3, an increase of 0.9

years since the 2000 Census.

The average household size remained

relatively the same from 2.34 to 2.33. The

average family size has also remained

relatively the same from 2.97 to 2.96.

The number of total housing units

increased in tandem with the number of

occupied and vacant housing units.

The table to the right provides a

comparison of the 2000 and 2010 U.S.

Census data.

Subject 2000 2010

Total population 111,006 130,882

SEX AND AGE

Male 55,254 65,462

Female 55,752 65,420

Under 5 years 6,428 8,075

5 to 19 years 23,196 24,919

20 to 64 years 73,117 86,677

65 years and over 8,265 11,211

Median age (years) 28.4 29.3

RACE

One Race 98.5% 97.7%

White 90.1% 85.6%

Black or African American 2.9% 4.8%

American Indian & Alaska Native 0.3% 0.2%

Asian 4.1% 5.2%

Native Hawaiian & Other Pacific Islander 0.0% 0.0%

Some Other Race 1.0% 1.8%

Two or More Races 1.5% 2.3%

Hispanic or Latino 2.5% 4.7%

DEMOGRAPHICS

Average household size 2.34 2.33

Average family size 2.97 2.96

HOUSING OCCUPANCY

Total housing units 45,831 55,967

Occupied housing units 44,080 52,715

Vacant housing units 1,751 3,252

Johnson County, IA

U.S. Census Data

Source: U.S. Census, Profile of General Demographic Characteristics


11/28/2016 8


population in Coralville, Iowa increased

from 15,123 to 18,907, or approximately

25 percent, between the 2000 and 2010

Census.


the population increased by 726, or 29



percent.

The median age of a Coralville, Iowa

resident is 31.6, an increase of 1.8 years

since the 2000 Census.










Census data.

Subject 2000 2010


SEX AND AGE

Male 7,716 9,740

Female 7,407 9,167


5 to 19 years 2,485 3,211

20 to 64 years 10,625 12,900

65 years and over 836 1,413


RACE

One Race 97.9% 97.4%

White 87.0% 79.4%



Asian 5.2% 7.8%





DEMOGRAPHICS



HOUSING OCCUPANCY



Vacant housing units 287 547

Coralville, IA

U.S. Census Data



11/28/2016 9


population in Hills, Iowa increased from

679 to 703, or approximately 4 percent,

between the 2000 and 2010 Census.


the population decreased by 29, or 21


decreased from 46 to 44, or 4 percent.

The median age of a Hills, Iowa resident is

45.2, an increase of 8.3 years since the

2000 Census.










Census data.

Subject 2000 2010

Total population 679 703

SEX AND AGE

Male 343 331

Female 336 372

Under 5 years 46 44

5 to 19 years 135 106

20 to 64 years 388 414

65 years and over 110 139


RACE

One Race 99.6% 97.2%

White 96.9% 93.3%



Asian 1.0% 1.3%





DEMOGRAPHICS



HOUSING OCCUPANCY

Total housing units 257 349

Occupied housing units 250 299


Hills, IA

U.S. Census Data



11/28/2016 10


population in Iowa City, Iowa increased

from 62,220 to 67,862, or approximately 9

percent, between the 2000 and 2010

Census.


the population increased by 145, or 1



percent.

The median age of an Iowa City, Iowa

resident is 25.6, an increase of 0.2 years

since the 2000 Census.










Census data.

Subject 2000 2010


SEX AND AGE

Male 30,508 33,755

Female 31,712 34,107


5 to 19 years 12,758 12,903

20 to 64 years 42,226 46,220

65 years and over 4,375 5,535


RACE

One Race 98.3% 97.5%

White 87.3% 82.5%



Asian 5.6% 6.9%





DEMOGRAPHICS



HOUSING OCCUPANCY



Vacant housing units 881 1,613

Iowa City, IA

U.S. Census Data



11/28/2016 11


population in North Liberty, Iowa

increased from 5,367 to 13,374, or




the population increased by 1,285, or 122


increased from 501 to 1,569, or 213

percent.

The median age of a North Liberty, Iowa

resident is 29.2, the same as the 2000

Census.










Census data.

Subject 2000 2010


SEX AND AGE

Male 2,657 6,549

Female 2,710 6,825

Under 5 years 501 1,569

5 to 19 years 1,053 2,338

20 to 64 years 3,595 8,996



RACE

One Race 98.8% 97.7%

White 95.4% 90.2%



Asian 0.8% 1.8%





DEMOGRAPHICS



HOUSING OCCUPANCY




North Liberty, IA

U.S. Census Data



11/28/2016 12


population in University Heights, Iowa

increased from 987 to 1,051, or




the population decreased by 13, or 10


increased from 63 to 69, or 10 percent.

The median age of a University Heights,

Iowa resident is 30.5, a decrease of 5.5

years since the 2000 Census.



average family size has remained







Census data.

Subject 2000 2010

Total population 987 1,051

SEX AND AGE

Male 497 532

Female 490 519

Under 5 years 63 69

5 to 19 years 136 123

20 to 64 years 664 740



RACE

One Race 98.6% 98.3%

White 95.9% 93.5%



Asian 1.2% 3.3%





DEMOGRAPHICS



HOUSING OCCUPANCY

Total housing units 477 512

Occupied housing units 467 474


University Heights, IA


U.S. Census Data


11/28/2016 13

General Demographics

The following information represents block group estimates and projections created from market

research and U.S. Census data obtained from the Environmental Systems Research Institute [ESRI]. ESRI

provides a yearly update to their demographic data in increments of five years. To make updates to

their demographic data set, they use American Community Survey [ACS] data that takes a series of

monthly sample surveys but only from areas with populations of 65,000 or more. One year of ACS data is

a period estimate as a twelve-month average, rather than a single point in time.

According to the ESRI estimates, the total population of Johnson County, Iowa is projected to increase

over the next five years. As illustrated in the table, the number of children, ages 5-18, is projected to

increase by 1,617 children.

Age 2015 2020

Ages 0 - 2 4,800 5,227

Ages 3 - 4 3,158 3,326

Ages 5 - 10 9,439 9,778

Ages 11 - 13 4,445 4,989

Ages 14 - 18 8,332 9,066

Ages 5 - 18 22,216 23,833

Total Population 138,956 149,943

Source: ESRI BIS

Johnson County Population Estimates

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Ages 0 - 2 Ages 3 - 4 Ages 5 - 10 Ages 11 - 13 Ages 14 - 18

Johnson County

Population Estimates

2015 2020


11/28/2016 14

Iowa City Community School District Area

Estimated School Aged Population Growth 2015-2020

The map below shows school age population change in the U.S. Census block groups within/around the

Iowa City Community School District boundary. Population changes are based on 2015 and 2020

estimates.

A block group is defined by the U.S. Census Bureau as, “a statistical division of a census tract, generally

defined to contain between 600 and 3,000 people and 240 and 1,200 housing units, and the smallest

geographic unit for which the Census Bureau tabulates sample data.”

Legend

ICCSD Boundary

School-Aged Population Change

>30%

20% - 30%

10% - 20%

1% - 10%

-10% - 0%

-20% - -10%

-30% - -20%

< -30%

¯


11/28/2016 15

Housing Data

Housing development and building permits are tracked to determine their effect on student enrollment.

The tables below illustrate the number of single and multi-family building permits issued in Coralville, Hills,

Iowa City, North Liberty, and Johnson County since 2000.

Year Coralville Hills Iowa City North LibertyJohnson

County

2000 117 1 159 88 529

2001 192 1 191 97 622

2002 193 0 227 163 745

2003 174 0 318 293 959

2004 126 0 247 353 927

2005 110 0 292 316 889

2006 103 0 179 297 693

2007 79 1 175 254 621

2008 48 5 156 290 601

2009 62 2 168 255 599

2010 40 0 153 136 424

2011 71 0 126 157 431

2012 77 1 223 136 556

2013 66 5 219 71 497

2014 89 8 226 162 621

2015 29 6 151 126 436

2016* 13 0 156 83 252

Year Coralville Hills Iowa City North LibertyJohnson

County

2000 178 0 273 112 622

2001 185 0 280 35 577

2002 137 0 299 88 538

2003 60 0 423 62 558

2004 8 0 189 184 396

2005 18 0 153 139 355

2006 4 0 158 164 334

2007 0 0 107 54 161

2008 0 26 115 24 193

2009 0 24 40 12 98

2010 0 20 59 0 95

2011 122 21 99 20 316

2012 10 0 176 20 224

2013 0 0 479 47 550

2014 75 0 219 93 459

2015 109 0 537 0 812

2016* 186 0 265 0 451

*preliminary through September

# of Single-Family Building Permits Issued

Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database

*preliminary through September

# of Multi-Family Building Permits Issued

Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database


11/28/2016 16

Open Enrollment

Open enrollment is a state-mandated school choice program. The table and graph below illustrate the

historical open enrollment trends in the Iowa City Community School District. The number of students

open enrolling into the District has fluctuated between 85 and 178.8 students over the past ten years,

with 85 students open enrolling into the District in the 2016-17 school year. The number of students open

enrolling out of the District has increased from 282.2 in 2007-08 to 500 in the 2016-17 school year.

Significant changes in the number of students open enrolling into or out of the District from year to year

can impact enrollment projections and should be monitored.

In Out

2007-08 178.8 282.2

2008-09 149.4 285.4

2009-10 149 364

2010-11 131 409

2011-12 123 418

2012-13 120 445

2013-14 138 454

2014-15 117 461

2015-16 97 482

2016-17 85 500

Open Enrollment

Source: Iowa City Community School District

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Open Enrollment

In Out


11/28/2016 17

Projected Enrollment—District-wide (by where students attend)

DeJONG-RICHTER developed low, moderate, high, and recommended enrollment projections for the

Iowa City Community School District. The low projection illustrates a conservative approach reflecting

an economy that may have higher inflation/interest rates, a decline in new housing, and/or a decline in

live births. The high projection takes a more liberal approach and reflects an economy that may have

lower inflation/interest rates, a high level of new housing, and/or an increase in live births. The moderate

falls in between these two approaches. The recommended projection illustrates the most likely direction

of the District based on more recent trends in the District.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Iowa City Community School

District

Historical Projected - Recommended Projected - Moderate Projected - Low Projected - High


11/28/2016 18

Live Birth Data

Utilization of live birth data is recommended when projecting future kindergarten enrollments. This data

provides a helpful overall trend. Large bubbles in birth counts, either up or down, can also be planned

for or anticipated by the District.

In addition, the live birth counts are used in determining a birth-to-kindergarten and birth-to-first grade

survival ratio. This ratio identifies the percentage of children born in a representative area who attend

kindergarten and first grade in the District five and six years earlier. The survival ratios for birth-to-

kindergarten, birth-to-first grade, as well as grades 1-12 can be found on page 20 of this report.

Data is arranged by the residence of the mother. For example, if a mother lives in Johnson County but

delivers her baby in Polk County, the birth is counted in Johnson County. Live birth counts are different

from live birth rates. The live birth count is simply the actual number of live births. A birth rate is the

number of births per 1,000 women in a specified population group.

The chart and graph includes the

live birth counts for the Iowa City

Community School District. These

live birth counts are broken down

by current (2016-17) elementary

catchment areas. A map

il lustrating these elementary

catchment areas can be found on

the following page.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Alexander 67 65 68 60 74 67 59 61 69 75 61 64 69 66 86 85 76

Borlaug 61 77 83 89 109 91 82 94 91 91 88 98 79 77 77 66 66

Coralville Central 71 113 79 101 115 98 100 131 105 128 107 109 120 133 115 125 140

Garner 45 51 41 53 45 59 73 71 87 137 127 120 128 126 136 188 209

Hills 40 51 46 42 54 66 44 40 39 34 32 37 40 32 35 30 27

Hoover 31 31 32 21 30 34 29 33 34 39 39 43 36 26 37 51 48

Horn 117 121 97 127 95 122 98 90 125 105 124 111 134 118 137 147 131

Kirkwood 116 124 117 100 115 107 106 99 105 99 104 125 92 105 105 94 113

Lemme 35 41 22 35 38 48 32 57 58 68 63 62 69 58 68 51 56

Lincoln 22 27 25 24 26 36 22 27 30 28 27 33 26 22 29 27 22

Longfellow 56 45 56 67 48 62 50 64 66 57 63 71 65 58 68 79 63

Lucas 57 68 65 66 69 70 61 74 69 80 75 74 71 89 77 73 63

Mann 38 42 39 34 46 55 46 36 47 56 53 53 45 52 51 47 51

Penn 45 44 56 64 72 80 74 76 77 92 85 95 92 118 92 75 81

Shimek 24 29 23 35 39 37 26 37 18 20 23 26 26 23 28 20 20

Twain 32 26 46 36 33 41 35 27 42 38 37 44 42 51 43 59 64

Van Allen 30 31 42 41 51 60 45 64 69 65 83 81 75 82 91 79 91

Weber 20 33 34 21 25 32 19 30 45 37 35 32 54 54 38 31 45

Wickham 33 40 26 36 43 43 40 38 41 42 27 32 43 43 43 35 45

Wood 66 57 63 58 63 70 67 72 74 66 70 73 71 76 76 75 70

Total 1,006 1,116 1,060 1,110 1,190 1,278 1,108 1,221 1,291 1,357 1,323 1,383 1,377 1,409 1,432 1,437 1,481

Live Birth Counts

2016-17 Elementary Catchment Areas

Source: Iowa City Community School District; State of Iowa Department of Health

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Iowa City Community School District

Live Birth Counts

Current Boundaries

Alexander Borlaug Coralville Central Garner Hills

Hoover Horn Kirkwood Lemme Lincoln

Longfellow Lucas Mann Penn Shimek

Twain Van Allen Weber Wickham Wood


11/28/2016 19


11/28/2016 20

Survival Ratios

The chart below demonstrates the ten-year changes in enrollment as students move through the system.

Percentages greater than 100 indicate that there are more students than there were in the previous

grade the previous year. In other words, there was an increase in student population where new

students were added to the system. Percentages less than 100 indicate that there was decline or

students left the system. If the exact number of students in 1st grade during the 2015-16 school year

were present in 2nd grade for the 2016-17 school year, the survival ratio would be 100 percent.

Birth-to-Kindergarten and Birth-to-First Grade: This ratio indicates the number of children born in the area

who attend kindergarten and first grade in the District five and six years later. What is important to note

is the trend in survival ratio, not necessarily the actual number.

The following tables illustrates the historical survival ratios in the Iowa City Community School District,

based on enrollment by school, over the past ten years by grade level.

Survival Ratios - District-wide

from to Birth to K K to 1 Birth to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5 5 to 6 6 to 7 7 to 8 8 to 9 9 to 10 10 to 11 11 to 12

2007 2008 80.43% 98.19% 83.83% 99.30% 102.14% 100.66% 98.98% 97.55% 98.96% 99.76% 100.60% 92.62% 93.65% 97.86%

2008 2009 100.44% 99.59% 80.10% 100.33% 99.59% 98.85% 97.39% 100.57% 97.26% 99.18% 100.48% 100.12% 100.00% 102.56%

2009 2010 81.58% 98.04% 91.87% 97.53% 97.84% 96.03% 97.56% 101.12% 98.75% 96.12% 100.00% 102.04% 100.12% 104.93%

2010 2011 79.98% 101.13% 82.50% 102.30% 101.48% 102.54% 102.65% 101.20% 99.23% 100.00% 104.65% 104.01% 99.88% 105.04%

2011 2012 79.88% 100.58% 80.33% 100.61% 101.17% 99.69% 103.88% 104.65% 102.26% 103.46% 101.96% 101.99% 97.62% 105.88%

2012 2013 88.74% 103.51% 82.68% 103.09% 101.52% 100.77% 100.10% 98.03% 98.12% 99.58% 98.49% 101.58% 101.72% 108.59%

2013 2014 78.45% 98.81% 87.68% 97.59% 99.81% 98.90% 98.95% 100.63% 99.47% 98.39% 100.74% 103.83% 101.34% 103.72%

2014 2015 85.55% 98.71% 77.44% 98.53% 98.45% 100.84% 98.79% 101.74% 101.14% 101.81% 100.72% 100.21% 98.21% 104.73%

2015 2016 80.48% 99.92% 85.48% 100.28% 98.69% 101.58% 97.86% 100.71% 100.67% 99.69% 105.22% 100.71% 100.00% 107.94%

mean simple all years 83.95% 99.83% 83.55% 99.95% 100.08% 99.98% 99.57% 100.69% 99.54% 99.78% 101.43% 100.79% 99.17% 104.58%

std. dev. simple all years 6.98% 1.73% 4.35% 1.93% 1.56% 1.91% 2.27% 2.07% 1.56% 2.04% 2.19% 3.37% 2.44% 3.15%

mean simple 5 years 82.62% 100.30% 82.72% 100.02% 99.93% 100.36% 99.92% 101.15% 100.33% 100.59% 101.43% 101.66% 99.78% 106.17%

std. dev. simple 5 years 4.34% 1.95% 4.06% 2.12% 1.40% 1.06% 2.35% 2.39% 1.59% 2.02% 2.46% 1.40% 1.83% 2.07%





mean weighted all years 82.61% 99.86% 83.28% 99.79% 99.47% 100.56% 99.14% 100.92% 100.19% 100.11% 102.20% 101.32% 99.71% 105.96%

std. dev. weighted all years 4.56% 1.55% 4.19% 1.79% 1.30% 1.42% 1.85% 1.59% 1.28% 1.70% 2.55% 1.85% 1.60% 2.25%

mean weighted 5 years 81.99% 99.70% 83.39% 99.68% 98.99% 100.97% 98.52% 100.92% 100.54% 100.17% 103.06% 101.04% 99.74% 106.59%

std. dev. weighted 5 years 3.30% 1.23% 4.17% 1.48% 0.93% 0.98% 1.22% 1.15% 0.90% 1.37% 2.69% 1.23% 1.27% 1.97%






11/28/2016 21


Historical Enrollment

As indicated in the table below, over the past ten years, student enrollment in the Iowa City Community

School District has increased by 2,288 students, or 20 percent. The enrollment count for the current 2016-

17 school year is 13,641 students.

Historical Enrollment - District-wide

Grade 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 940 974 1,020 972 1,031 1,084 1,174 1,085 1,178 1,134

1 993 923 970 1,000 983 1,037 1,122 1,160 1,071 1,177

2 934 986 926 946 1,023 989 1,069 1,095 1,143 1,074

3 912 954 982 906 960 1,035 1,004 1,067 1,078 1,128

4 882 918 943 943 929 957 1,043 993 1,076 1,095

5 897 873 894 920 968 965 958 1,032 981 1,053

6 864 875 878 904 931 1,013 946 964 1,050 988

7 833 855 851 867 897 952 994 941 975 1,057

8 827 831 848 818 867 928 948 978 958 972

9 854 832 835 848 856 884 914 955 985 1,008

10 835 791 833 852 882 873 898 949 957 992

11 748 782 791 834 851 861 888 910 932 957

12 834 732 802 830 876 901 935 921 953 1,006

Grand Total 11,353 11,326 11,573 11,640 12,054 12,479 12,893 13,050 13,337 13,641

Source: ICCSD


Grade 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 6,422 6,503 6,613 6,591 6,825 7,080 7,316 7,396 7,577 7,649

7 - 8 1,660 1,686 1,699 1,685 1,764 1,880 1,942 1,919 1,933 2,029

9 - 12 3,271 3,137 3,261 3,364 3,465 3,519 3,635 3,735 3,827 3,963

Grand Total 11,353 11,326 11,573 11,640 12,054 12,479 12,893 13,050 13,337 13,641

Source: ICCSD

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000



11/28/2016 22


Projected Enrollment—Low

Based on the low projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Iowa City Community School District is

projected to decrease from 13,641 in 2016-17 to 13,234 in 2026-27.

Projected Enrollment - Low - District-wide

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 1,126 1,121 1,162 1,137 1,142 1,142 1,143 1,140 1,141 1,140

1 1,095 1,090 1,085 1,125 1,097 1,101 1,104 1,103 1,102 1,102

2 1,148 1,070 1,069 1,059 1,097 1,073 1,077 1,080 1,077 1,076

3 1,026 1,104 1,030 1,027 1,012 1,046 1,028 1,028 1,027 1,029

4 1,106 1,009 1,082 1,014 1,012 992 1,024 1,008 1,012 1,012

5 1,048 1,056 963 1,038 973 969 952 981 967 970

6 1,035 1,032 1,043 950 1,031 966 964 947 976 959

7 985 1,032 1,027 1,041 947 1,027 961 960 943 970

8 1,050 980 1,024 1,017 1,031 936 1,015 949 949 933

9 1,008 1,092 1,017 1,065 1,059 1,072 977 1,058 991 989

10 1,008 1,009 1,090 1,018 1,064 1,058 1,072 974 1,056 987

11 985 1,001 1,001 1,083 1,009 1,056 1,049 1,064 965 1,047

12 1,019 1,052 1,064 1,066 1,151 1,073 1,119 1,113 1,128 1,020

Grand Total 13,639 13,648 13,657 13,640 13,625 13,511 13,485 13,405 13,334 13,234

Source: DeJONG-RICHTER


Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 7,584 7,482 7,434 7,350 7,364 7,289 7,292 7,287 7,302 7,288

7 - 8 2,035 2,012 2,051 2,058 1,978 1,963 1,976 1,909 1,892 1,903

9 - 12 4,020 4,154 4,172 4,232 4,283 4,259 4,217 4,209 4,140 4,043

Grand Total 13,639 13,648 13,657 13,640 13,625 13,511 13,485 13,405 13,334 13,234


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Projected Enrollment - Low - District-

wide


11/28/2016 23


Projected Enrollment—Moderate

Based on the moderate projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Iowa City Community School

District is projected to increase from 13,641 in 2016-17 to 15,695 in 2026-27.

Projected Enrollment - Moderate - District-wide

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 1,177 1,175 1,217 1,189 1,193 1,194 1,193 1,195 1,194 1,194

1 1,130 1,173 1,174 1,213 1,189 1,189 1,192 1,193 1,192 1,191

2 1,179 1,138 1,181 1,174 1,213 1,191 1,192 1,193 1,193 1,192

3 1,057 1,169 1,123 1,168 1,153 1,189 1,169 1,172 1,172 1,174

4 1,145 1,071 1,185 1,141 1,187 1,164 1,204 1,184 1,185 1,189

5 1,077 1,130 1,057 1,181 1,130 1,174 1,157 1,190 1,171 1,178

6 1,059 1,089 1,146 1,070 1,200 1,151 1,196 1,179 1,214 1,195

7 996 1,068 1,098 1,155 1,077 1,209 1,158 1,205 1,187 1,223

8 1,056 996 1,065 1,093 1,151 1,072 1,204 1,152 1,199 1,182

9 1,024 1,113 1,049 1,124 1,154 1,216 1,133 1,271 1,217 1,267

10 1,015 1,031 1,121 1,055 1,131 1,160 1,222 1,137 1,276 1,222

11 995 1,016 1,031 1,122 1,057 1,130 1,160 1,223 1,136 1,277

12 1,029 1,070 1,089 1,108 1,202 1,131 1,210 1,240 1,307 1,211

Grand Total 13,939 14,239 14,536 14,793 15,037 15,170 15,390 15,534 15,643 15,695



Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 7,824 7,945 8,083 8,136 8,265 8,252 8,303 8,306 8,321 8,313

7 - 8 2,052 2,064 2,163 2,248 2,228 2,281 2,362 2,357 2,386 2,405

9 - 12 4,063 4,230 4,290 4,409 4,544 4,637 4,725 4,871 4,936 4,977

Grand Total 13,939 14,239 14,536 14,793 15,037 15,170 15,390 15,534 15,643 15,695


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Projected Enrollment - Moderate -

District-wide


11/28/2016 24


Projected Enrollment—High

Based on the high projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Iowa City Community School District is

projected to increase from 13,641 in 2016-17 to 18,912 in 2026-27.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Projected Enrollment - High - District-

wide

Projected Enrollment - High - District-wide

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 1,228 1,225 1,270 1,240 1,244 1,248 1,249 1,246 1,248 1,248

1 1,166 1,264 1,265 1,307 1,280 1,282 1,285 1,283 1,283 1,285

2 1,212 1,202 1,304 1,300 1,346 1,314 1,319 1,319 1,320 1,321

3 1,089 1,242 1,224 1,332 1,317 1,362 1,335 1,341 1,343 1,343

4 1,177 1,137 1,298 1,285 1,398 1,380 1,422 1,398 1,400 1,404

5 1,109 1,212 1,169 1,353 1,327 1,453 1,433 1,471 1,452 1,455

6 1,087 1,149 1,261 1,212 1,414 1,390 1,520 1,502 1,552 1,527

7 1,006 1,105 1,171 1,284 1,234 1,441 1,415 1,548 1,531 1,578

8 1,062 1,010 1,108 1,174 1,288 1,234 1,443 1,417 1,549 1,535

9 1,040 1,137 1,080 1,186 1,257 1,379 1,323 1,546 1,519 1,660

10 1,022 1,054 1,150 1,096 1,201 1,271 1,395 1,336 1,563 1,534

11 1,002 1,030 1,063 1,161 1,104 1,210 1,282 1,407 1,348 1,576

12 1,038 1,090 1,113 1,150 1,254 1,194 1,303 1,380 1,516 1,446

Grand Total 14,238 14,857 15,476 16,080 16,664 17,158 17,724 18,194 18,624 18,912



Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 8,068 8,431 8,791 9,029 9,326 9,429 9,563 9,560 9,598 9,583

7 - 8 2,068 2,115 2,279 2,458 2,522 2,675 2,858 2,965 3,080 3,113

9 - 12 4,102 4,311 4,406 4,593 4,816 5,054 5,303 5,669 5,946 6,216

Grand Total 14,238 14,857 15,476 16,080 16,664 17,158 17,724 18,194 18,624 18,912



11/28/2016 25


Projected Enrollment—Recommended

Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Iowa City Community

School District is projected to increase from 13,641 in 2016-17 to 15,879 in 2026-27.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Projected Enrollment - Recommended -

District-wide

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - District-wide

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 1,179 1,175 1,217 1,188 1,192 1,196 1,197 1,196 1,197 1,196

1 1,143 1,190 1,185 1,226 1,203 1,205 1,206 1,207 1,206 1,206

2 1,174 1,144 1,188 1,181 1,226 1,198 1,202 1,201 1,204 1,204

3 1,067 1,176 1,141 1,185 1,173 1,214 1,189 1,195 1,195 1,197

4 1,142 1,079 1,188 1,155 1,197 1,185 1,225 1,202 1,206 1,207

5 1,082 1,135 1,073 1,189 1,155 1,193 1,184 1,228 1,202 1,206

6 1,054 1,092 1,149 1,078 1,205 1,171 1,207 1,201 1,244 1,217

7 997 1,065 1,101 1,158 1,088 1,217 1,180 1,218 1,212 1,254

8 1,059 1,000 1,065 1,102 1,159 1,087 1,217 1,179 1,217 1,213

9 1,012 1,103 1,041 1,109 1,146 1,207 1,132 1,267 1,227 1,267

10 1,015 1,021 1,111 1,048 1,116 1,154 1,215 1,137 1,275 1,233

11 993 1,014 1,020 1,109 1,047 1,115 1,153 1,213 1,135 1,273

12 1,026 1,064 1,082 1,090 1,185 1,118 1,188 1,227 1,294 1,206

Grand Total 13,943 14,258 14,561 14,818 15,092 15,260 15,495 15,671 15,814 15,879



Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 7,841 7,991 8,141 8,202 8,351 8,362 8,410 8,430 8,454 8,433

7 - 8 2,056 2,065 2,166 2,260 2,247 2,304 2,397 2,397 2,429 2,467

9 - 12 4,046 4,202 4,254 4,356 4,494 4,594 4,688 4,844 4,931 4,979

Grand Total 13,943 14,258 14,561 14,818 15,092 15,260 15,495 15,671 15,814 15,879



11/28/2016 26

Projected Enrollment by 2018-19 Elementary Catchment Area

Enrollment projections for the Iowa City Community School District were developed by analyzing

historical geocoded student databases. The historical enrollment tables represent students who live

within a particular elementary catchment area. It should be noted that the historical enrollment is not

reflective of the official enrollment counts in the previous section of this report. Differences in the District-

wide enrollment counts are due to factors including open enrollment and unmatched students in the

process of geocoding as a result of invalid addresses.

DeJONG-RICHTER developed low, moderate, high, and recommended enrollment projections for the

Iowa City Community School District, based on students living within the 2015-16 elementary catchment

areas. The low projection illustrates a conservative approach reflecting an economy that may have

higher inflation/interest rates, a decline in new housing, and/or a decline in live births. The high

projection takes a more liberal approach and reflects an economy that may have lower inflation/

interest rates, a high level of new housing, and/or an increase in live births. The moderate falls in

between these two approaches. The recommended projection illustrates the most likely direction of the

District/elementary catchment area based on more recent trends in the District/elementary catchment

area.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Iowa City Community School District

Historical Projected - Recommended Projected - Moderate Projected - Low Projected - High


11/28/2016 27

Live Birth Data

Utilization of live birth data is recommended when projecting future kindergarten enrollments. This data

provides a helpful overall trend. Large bubbles in birth counts, either up or down, can also be planned

for or anticipated by the District.

In addition, the live birth counts are used in determining a birth-to-kindergarten and birth-to-first grade

survival ratio. This ratio identifies the percentage of children born in a representative area who attend

kindergarten and first grade in the District five and six years earlier. The survival ratios for birth-to-

kindergarten, birth-to-first grade, as well as grades 1-12 can be found on page 29 of this report.

Data is arranged by the residence of the mother. For example, if a mother lives in Johnson County but

delivers her baby in Polk County, the birth is counted in Johnson County. Live birth counts are different

from live birth rates. The live birth count is simply the actual number of live births. A birth rate is the

number of births per 1,000 women in a specified population group.

The chart and graph includes the

live birth counts for the Iowa City

Community School District. These

live birth counts are broken down

by 2019-20 elementary catchment

areas.

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Alexander 48 56 72 67 64 71 72 51 65 71 72 53 67 59 64 79 71

Borlaug 63 65 76 85 90 101 82 95 83 88 81 98 91 82 78 67 65

Coralville Central 102 109 113 107 130 126 116 106 135 116 134 119 118 138 126 112 128

Garner 67 66 55 60 76 55 75 109 86 120 119 127 132 115 125 130 133

Grant 13 16 19 16 23 33 20 21 26 21 22 23 33 21 27 20 24

Hills 30 29 32 30 28 35 42 27 27 31 36 30 30 33 29 30 26

Hoover 20 22 22 29 32 23 41 25 56 41 49 43 46 42 47 61 35

Horn 100 96 98 96 90 97 101 79 92 82 95 95 105 84 112 116 115

Kirkwood 108 114 124 102 103 107 106 96 102 107 102 97 129 86 102 100 122

Lemme 36 42 50 35 31 48 45 35 46 56 51 54 55 51 50 41 57

Lincoln 29 25 35 25 31 26 22 26 30 38 41 41 44 38 40 39 47

Longfellow 88 90 61 69 72 75 83 71 82 74 49 67 66 49 67 59 52

Lucas 46 48 58 44 63 53 57 38 63 56 79 60 58 67 81 59 61

Mann 47 42 41 35 40 47 49 51 40 30 50 39 45 33 28 48 42

Penn 27 24 43 32 45 47 58 55 69 68 93 84 94 96 114 107 109

Shimek 32 23 31 20 32 34 25 32 30 17 18 26 22 23 27 21 21

Twain 28 38 33 52 45 43 41 41 34 49 39 49 55 48 48 55 50

Van Allen 24 34 32 37 48 53 47 43 62 59 70 78 65 58 79 83 98

Weber 48 42 51 48 47 39 52 41 50 75 54 58 59 83 69 59 61

Wickham 19 31 32 27 30 37 48 39 32 41 36 36 48 41 46 38 49

Wood 56 67 63 73 72 75 75 73 83 85 83 84 87 98 108 93 96

Total 1,031 1,079 1,141 1,089 1,192 1,225 1,257 1,154 1,293 1,325 1,373 1,361 1,449 1,345 1,467 1,417 1,462

Live Birth Counts

2019-20 Elementary Catchment Areas

Source: Iowa City Community School District; State of Iowa Department of Health

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600


Live Birth Counts

2019-20 Boundaries

Alexander Coralville Central Garner Grant Hills

Hoover Horn Kirkwood Lemme Lincoln

Longfellow Lucas Mann Penn Shimek

Twain Van Allen Weber Wickham Wood


11/28/2016 28


11/28/2016 29

Survival Ratios

The chart below demonstrates the ten-year changes in enrollment as students move through the system.

Percentages greater than 100 indicate that there are more students than there were in the previous

grade the previous year. In other words, there was an increase in student population where new

students were added to the system. Percentages less than 100 indicate that there was decline or

students left the system. If the exact number of students in 1st grade during the 2012-13 school year

were present in 2nd grade for the 2013-14 school year, the survival ratio would be 100 percent.

Birth-to-Kindergarten and Birth-to-First Grade: This ratio indicates the number of children born in the area

who attend kindergarten and first grade in the District five and six years later. What is important to note

is the trend in survival ratio, not necessarily the actual number.

The following tables illustrates the historical survival ratios in the Iowa City Community School District,

based on enrollment by elementary catchment area, over the past 5 years by grade level.

Survival Ratios - District-wide

from to Birth to K K to 1 Birth to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5 5 to 6 6 to 7 7 to 8 8 to 9 9 to 10 10 to 11 11 to 12

2012 2013 81.65% 101.67% 82.57% 98.59% 101.02% 99.80% 100.00% 97.79% 101.77% 100.11% 98.36% 101.86% 100.82% 108.94%

2013 2014 78.47% 101.87% 83.18% 98.99% 100.95% 99.29% 99.22% 101.82% 100.11% 98.67% 100.75% 103.56% 101.48% 104.17%

2014 2015 78.81% 99.91% 78.40% 100.18% 100.00% 101.60% 102.04% 101.58% 100.00% 101.18% 99.69% 99.47% 97.20% 103.71%

2015 2016 82.83% 98.95% 77.98% 97.38% 95.28% 97.88% 96.66% 95.60% 98.45% 98.01% 103.08% 99.90% 98.83% 106.19%

mean simple all years 80.44% 100.60% 80.53% 98.78% 99.31% 99.64% 99.48% 99.19% 100.08% 99.49% 100.47% 101.20% 99.58% 105.75%

std. dev. simple all years 2.13% 1.41% 2.72% 1.15% 2.73% 1.54% 2.23% 3.03% 1.36% 1.43% 2.00% 1.89% 1.95% 2.38%





mean weighted all years 81.46% 99.52% 78.68% 98.22% 97.08% 98.95% 98.27% 97.63% 99.07% 98.88% 101.92% 100.18% 98.74% 105.52%

std. dev. weighted all years 2.20% 1.08% 1.85% 1.38% 2.81% 1.80% 2.64% 3.24% 1.02% 1.55% 1.85% 1.30% 1.35% 1.46%






11/28/2016 30


Historical Enrollment

As indicated in the table below, over the past five years, student enrollment in the Iowa City Community

School District has increased by 930 students, or 8 percent. The enrollment count for the current 2016-17

school year is 13,197 students.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000


Difference in the District-wide historical enrollment totals from those presented in the District-wide historical

enrollment totals in the enrollment projections by school section are due to open enrollment and non-geocoded

students.


Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 6,988 7,141 7,301 7,544 7,430

7 - 8 1,850 1,913 1,893 1,895 1,949

9 - 12 3,429 3,552 3,664 3,726 3,818

Grand Total 12,267 12,606 12,858 13,165 13,197

Source: ICCSD


Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 1,076 1,121 1,068 1,142 1,114

1 1,066 1,094 1,142 1,067 1,130

2 976 1,051 1,083 1,144 1,039

3 1,025 986 1,061 1,083 1,090

4 936 1,023 979 1,078 1,060

5 951 936 1,015 999 1,042

6 958 930 953 1,031 955

7 937 975 931 953 1,015

8 913 938 962 942 934

9 861 898 945 959 971

10 856 877 930 940 958

11 839 863 890 904 929

12 873 914 899 923 960

Grand Total 12,267 12,606 12,858 13,165 13,197

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 31

Catchment Area 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Trend

Alexander Catchment 543 594 662 662 675

Borlaug Catchment 650 597 636 669 704

Coralville Central Catchment 839 881 871 855 798

Garner Catchment 664 714 742 794 762

Grant Catchment 441 447 468 475 508

Hills Catchment 251 237 267 268 267

Hoover Catchment 598 630 653 673 658

Horn Catchment 657 694 680 709 690

Kirkwood Catchment 691 700 721 692 667

Lemme Catchment 680 669 652 687 664

Lincoln Catchment 341 354 326 325 334

Longfellow Catchment 374 383 396 425 459

Lucas Catchment 583 654 627 613 621

Mann Catchment 319 328 326 327 325

Penn Catchment 749 791 873 934 990

Shimek Catchment 338 334 328 335 329

Twain Catchment 335 317 352 373 428

Van Allen Catchment 700 746 732 786 787

Weber Catchment 786 875 870 898 924

Wickham Catchment 773 764 777 780 768

Wood Catchment 955 897 899 885 839

Total 12,267 12,606 12,858 13,165 13,197

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 32


Projected Enrollment—Low

Based on the low projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Iowa City Community School District is

projected to decrease from 13,197 in 2016-17 to 11,829 in 2026-27.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Projected Enrollment - Low - District-

wide


Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 1,154 1,117 1,152 1,133 1,140 1,138 1,137 1,136 1,137 1,137

1 1,101 1,127 1,089 1,120 1,105 1,109 1,106 1,105 1,107 1,107

2 1,084 1,064 1,079 1,038 1,066 1,052 1,056 1,056 1,056 1,054

3 972 1,014 989 1,007 967 990 980 983 983 984

4 1,048 940 978 954 966 925 952 939 945 940

5 1,004 1,000 890 937 908 922 885 910 899 901

6 980 951 944 842 889 856 873 837 861 851

7 925 956 925 918 823 868 846 860 824 844

8 981 893 922 891 884 796 841 821 836 800

9 932 985 902 922 896 887 801 838 829 839

10 949 912 962 883 901 877 868 783 823 810

11 922 916 874 929 850 867 842 831 753 790

12 961 953 946 905 954 876 890 863 850 772

Grand Total 13,013 12,828 12,652 12,479 12,349 12,163 12,077 11,962 11,903 11,829



Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 7,343 7,213 7,121 7,031 7,041 6,992 6,989 6,966 6,988 6,974

7 - 8 1,906 1,849 1,847 1,809 1,707 1,664 1,687 1,681 1,660 1,644

9 - 12 3,764 3,766 3,684 3,639 3,601 3,507 3,401 3,315 3,255 3,211

Grand Total 13,013 12,828 12,652 12,479 12,349 12,163 12,077 11,962 11,903 11,829



11/28/2016 33

Catchment Area 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 Trend

Alexander Catchment 660 677 688 703 715 730 748 747 756 752

Borlaug Catchment 726 730 729 722 721 701 702 704 708 705

Coralville Central Catchment 728 651 591 534 499 471 450 431 419 409

Garner Catchment 734 706 675 652 624 611 600 591 585 571

Grant Catchment 524 533 553 563 580 586 595 608 621 626

Hills Catchment 243 228 208 198 187 178 171 161 156 148

Hoover Catchment 654 664 633 612 610 597 554 524 500 485

Horn Catchment 681 675 678 658 653 636 628 622 621 625

Kirkwood Catchment 634 594 576 551 531 524 519 512 506 496

Lemme Catchment 649 612 600 578 544 517 508 504 486 477

Lincoln Catchment 333 334 335 341 341 347 347 347 348 345

Longfellow Catchment 480 503 510 539 548 550 550 550 542 548

Lucas Catchment 613 583 560 539 535 518 515 502 503 492

Mann Catchment 317 323 323 326 325 320 322 328 323 325

Penn Catchment 1,036 1,065 1,094 1,108 1,124 1,134 1,147 1,152 1,158 1,178

Shimek Catchment 325 319 314 313 310 302 294 277 275 257

Twain Catchment 450 482 497 523 536 542 564 577 601 624

Van Allen Catchment 782 794 822 831 834 836 849 843 848 857

Weber Catchment 919 904 885 869 862 850 840 830 807 777

Wickham Catchment 748 725 710 704 691 666 650 643 638 635

Wood Catchment 777 726 671 615 579 547 524 509 502 497

Total 13,013 12,828 12,652 12,479 12,349 12,163 12,077 11,962 11,903 11,829



11/28/2016 34


Projected Enrollment—Moderate

Based on the moderate projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Iowa City Community School

District is projected to increase from 13,197 in 2016-174-15 to 14,618 in 2026-27.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Projected Enrollment - Moderate -

District-wide


Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 7,607 7,682 7,796 7,837 7,984 8,041 8,104 8,072 8,089 8,080

7 - 8 1,959 1,957 2,019 2,042 1,982 1,985 2,073 2,184 2,211 2,192

9 - 12 3,858 3,975 3,987 4,058 4,142 4,152 4,158 4,172 4,226 4,346

Grand Total 13,424 13,614 13,802 13,937 14,108 14,178 14,335 14,428 14,526 14,618



Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 1,222 1,182 1,220 1,200 1,207 1,205 1,205 1,206 1,205 1,206

1 1,144 1,237 1,193 1,223 1,209 1,213 1,214 1,213 1,212 1,213

2 1,112 1,129 1,221 1,168 1,199 1,188 1,192 1,188 1,189 1,190

3 1,000 1,073 1,089 1,172 1,124 1,155 1,142 1,147 1,143 1,147

4 1,075 990 1,063 1,073 1,159 1,107 1,142 1,127 1,132 1,127

5 1,040 1,059 976 1,051 1,061 1,146 1,096 1,125 1,110 1,115

6 1,014 1,012 1,034 950 1,025 1,027 1,113 1,066 1,098 1,082

7 949 1,014 1,015 1,036 956 1,033 1,048 1,133 1,082 1,110

8 1,010 943 1,004 1,006 1,026 952 1,025 1,051 1,129 1,082

9 959 1,040 976 1,039 1,042 1,059 983 1,060 1,091 1,173

10 970 962 1,041 980 1,039 1,041 1,058 984 1,065 1,094

11 948 965 949 1,033 970 1,026 1,032 1,043 975 1,050

12 981 1,008 1,021 1,006 1,091 1,026 1,085 1,085 1,095 1,029

Grand Total 13,424 13,614 13,802 13,937 14,108 14,178 14,335 14,428 14,526 14,618



11/28/2016 35



Borlaug Catchment 772 825 872 909 956 976 1,014 1,058 1,092 1,120



Grant Catchment 537 561 595 622 656 676 699 726 754 772

Hills Catchment 258 255 249 247 246 243 241 232 226 215


Horn Catchment 702 714 734 729 740 731 738 742 745 755


Lemme Catchment 662 639 639 627 601 579 579 579 565 557



Lucas Catchment 628 609 600 590 591 584 588 580 583 575

Mann Catchment 325 342 348 359 363 364 372 383 380 386

Penn Catchment 1,065 1,119 1,181 1,219 1,259 1,292 1,328 1,349 1,378 1,415


Twain Catchment 471 523 563 612 645 675 720 754 799 848

Van Allen Catchment 805 839 886 912 930 947 977 980 992 1,014

Weber Catchment 940 944 942 944 952 956 959 964 950 933


Wood Catchment 807 779 740 693 668 645 626 618 608 611

Total 13,424 13,614 13,802 13,937 14,108 14,178 14,335 14,428 14,526 14,618



11/28/2016 36


Projected Enrollment—High

Based on the high projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Iowa City Community School District is

projected to increase from 13,197 in 2016-17 to 18,123 in 2026-27.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Projected Enrollment - High - District-

wide


Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 1,293 1,249 1,289 1,268 1,275 1,273 1,273 1,275 1,273 1,273

1 1,179 1,354 1,301 1,338 1,320 1,325 1,323 1,323 1,322 1,322

2 1,141 1,198 1,370 1,311 1,350 1,336 1,338 1,334 1,337 1,337

3 1,035 1,134 1,192 1,362 1,304 1,338 1,326 1,328 1,324 1,327

4 1,102 1,046 1,147 1,205 1,382 1,318 1,355 1,342 1,344 1,343

5 1,073 1,125 1,064 1,174 1,235 1,414 1,346 1,381 1,368 1,372

6 1,048 1,081 1,126 1,071 1,184 1,229 1,413 1,351 1,388 1,372

7 974 1,075 1,112 1,162 1,107 1,222 1,305 1,489 1,420 1,451

8 1,032 995 1,096 1,130 1,183 1,133 1,250 1,340 1,527 1,458

9 989 1,099 1,062 1,168 1,207 1,263 1,209 1,331 1,438 1,638

10 992 1,011 1,126 1,090 1,193 1,236 1,284 1,234 1,367 1,479

11 977 1,011 1,032 1,146 1,107 1,211 1,260 1,303 1,255 1,387

12 1,007 1,061 1,099 1,119 1,244 1,200 1,315 1,366 1,411 1,364

Grand Total 13,842 14,439 15,016 15,544 16,091 16,498 16,997 17,397 17,774 18,123



Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 7,871 8,187 8,489 8,729 9,050 9,233 9,374 9,334 9,356 9,346

7 - 8 2,006 2,070 2,208 2,292 2,290 2,355 2,555 2,829 2,947 2,909

9 - 12 3,965 4,182 4,319 4,523 4,751 4,910 5,068 5,234 5,471 5,868

Grand Total 13,842 14,439 15,016 15,544 16,091 16,498 16,997 17,397 17,774 18,123



11/28/2016 37


Alexander Catchment 696 749 790 833 874 917 967 989 1,022 1,030

Borlaug Catchment 819 927 1,031 1,124 1,244 1,324 1,430 1,543 1,645 1,736



Grant Catchment 552 591 642 687 737 777 817 860 909 948

Hills Catchment 274 286 292 308 320 328 335 334 328 316


Horn Catchment 721 751 791 807 836 839 862 879 899 918


Lemme Catchment 675 666 678 677 664 651 656 667 657 653



Lucas Catchment 645 641 641 642 657 659 671 668 680 672

Mann Catchment 333 358 375 397 406 410 426 446 448 457

Penn Catchment 1,096 1,178 1,270 1,339 1,408 1,470 1,533 1,580 1,632 1,695


Twain Catchment 493 570 631 710 772 832 910 976 1,055 1,148

Van Allen Catchment 827 882 953 1,003 1,039 1,072 1,119 1,140 1,162 1,201

Weber Catchment 961 985 1,003 1,022 1,047 1,069 1,091 1,113 1,116 1,108


Wood Catchment 837 834 815 779 767 753 747 744 742 751

Total 13,842 14,439 15,016 15,544 16,091 16,498 16,997 17,397 17,774 18,123



11/28/2016 38


Projected Enrollment—Recommended

Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Iowa City Community

School District is projected to increase from 13,197 in 2016-17 to 14,890 in 2026-27.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Projected Enrollment - Recommended -

District-wide


Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 1,237 1,189 1,230 1,209 1,212 1,214 1,213 1,214 1,215 1,216

1 1,091 1,207 1,162 1,197 1,181 1,188 1,185 1,185 1,185 1,185

2 1,116 1,077 1,192 1,141 1,177 1,158 1,164 1,164 1,163 1,163

3 1,025 1,101 1,064 1,179 1,128 1,161 1,147 1,151 1,151 1,152

4 1,086 1,027 1,101 1,061 1,173 1,124 1,157 1,140 1,146 1,144

5 1,052 1,083 1,019 1,094 1,052 1,168 1,118 1,149 1,136 1,141

6 1,031 1,039 1,071 1,006 1,085 1,042 1,162 1,111 1,144 1,129

7 961 1,039 1,050 1,082 1,015 1,094 1,054 1,171 1,123 1,150

8 1,006 956 1,030 1,039 1,067 1,010 1,083 1,051 1,161 1,113

9 953 1,035 980 1,059 1,069 1,101 1,037 1,114 1,081 1,192

10 975 965 1,039 986 1,059 1,071 1,101 1,042 1,122 1,088

11 957 975 963 1,041 987 1,060 1,075 1,102 1,046 1,118

12 982 1,014 1,031 1,018 1,097 1,038 1,118 1,130 1,160 1,099

Grand Total 13,472 13,707 13,932 14,112 14,302 14,429 14,614 14,724 14,833 14,890



Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 7,638 7,723 7,839 7,887 8,008 8,055 8,146 8,114 8,140 8,130

7 - 8 1,967 1,995 2,080 2,121 2,082 2,104 2,137 2,222 2,284 2,263

9 - 12 3,867 3,989 4,013 4,104 4,212 4,270 4,331 4,388 4,409 4,497

Grand Total 13,472 13,707 13,932 14,112 14,302 14,429 14,614 14,724 14,833 14,890



11/28/2016 39



Borlaug Catchment 723 730 739 740 751 745 744 747 732 719



Grant Catchment 527 539 562 577 599 608 620 630 646 652

Hills Catchment 259 254 242 244 236 233 230 221 210 196


Horn Catchment 710 736 767 776 799 807 832 849 863 880


Lemme Catchment 668 656 662 659 641 624 629 635 622 619



Lucas Catchment 628 608 598 586 589 586 590 584 587 578

Mann Catchment 325 347 353 367 374 377 388 404 406 413

Penn Catchment 1,071 1,132 1,203 1,253 1,302 1,345 1,389 1,424 1,464 1,511


Twain Catchment 450 474 490 515 523 530 548 557 575 596

Van Allen Catchment 807 841 894 920 942 957 988 997 1,013 1,033

Weber Catchment 961 978 989 1,005 1,029 1,048 1,071 1,094 1,098 1,093


Wood Catchment 829 818 802 777 772 775 776 783 786 795

Total 13,472 13,707 13,932 14,112 14,302 14,429 14,614 14,724 14,833 14,890



11/28/2016 40

Enrollment by Elementary Catchment Area

The following pages illustrate historical and projected enrollment by elementary catchment area.

Alexander Catchment Area .......................................................................................................................... 42

Borlaug Catchment Area .............................................................................................................................. 44

Coralville Central Catchment Area ............................................................................................................. 46

Garner Catchment Area ............................................................................................................................... 48

Grant Catchment Area .................................................................................................................................. 50

Hills Catchment Area ...................................................................................................................................... 52

Hoover Catchment Area ............................................................................................................................... 54

Horn Catchment Area .................................................................................................................................... 56

Kirkwood Catchment Area ............................................................................................................................ 58

Lemme Catchment Area ............................................................................................................................... 60

Lincoln Catchment Area ................................................................................................................................ 62

Longfellow Catchment Area ......................................................................................................................... 64

Lucas Catchment Area .................................................................................................................................. 66

Mann Catchment Area .................................................................................................................................. 68

Penn Catchment Area ................................................................................................................................... 70

Shimek Catchment Area................................................................................................................................ 72

Twain Catchment Area .................................................................................................................................. 74

Van Allen Catchment Area ........................................................................................................................... 76

Weber Catchment Area ................................................................................................................................ 78

Wickham Catchment Area ........................................................................................................................... 80

Wood Catchment Area ................................................................................................................................. 82


11/28/2016 41

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11/28/2016 42

Alexander Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the Alexander Catchment Area has increased by 132 students over the last 5

years. Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Alexander

Catchment Area is projected to increase from 675 in 2016-17 to 900 students in 2026-27.

Historical Enrollment - Alexander Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 46 66 57 59 64

1 44 53 71 56 61

2 37 47 55 64 47

3 45 38 60 57 72

4 39 47 40 56 50

5 36 40 46 38 59

6 44 40 41 39 38

7 47 43 44 49 44

8 43 46 44 45 47

9 41 46 50 50 45

10 41 40 48 47 45

11 33 46 52 53 44

12 47 42 54 49 59

Grand Total 543 594 662 662 675

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - Alexander Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 291 331 370 369 391

7 - 8 90 89 88 94 91

9 - 12 162 174 204 199 193

Grand Total 543 594 662 662 675

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 43

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Alexander Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 67 83 74 74 75 76 75 75 75 75

1 66 69 85 77 77 78 78 77 78 78

2 52 57 59 73 66 66 67 67 66 67

3 52 58 63 66 82 73 73 74 75 74

4 64 47 52 56 59 73 66 65 66 67

5 52 66 48 54 58 61 75 68 68 69

6 59 51 66 48 53 58 61 75 67 67

7 43 66 58 75 54 61 65 69 85 76

8 43 42 64 56 73 53 59 64 67 82

9 49 45 44 67 59 76 55 61 66 70

10 42 45 41 40 62 54 70 51 57 61

11 46 42 46 42 41 63 55 71 52 57

12 49 50 47 51 46 45 70 61 78 57

Grand Total 684 721 747 779 805 837 869 878 900 900


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Alexander Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 412 431 447 448 470 485 495 501 495 497

7 - 8 86 108 122 131 127 114 124 133 152 158

9 - 12 186 182 178 200 208 238 250 244 253 245

Grand Total 684 721 747 779 805 837 869 878 900 900


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Alexander Catchment

historical projected


11/28/2016 44

Borlaug Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the Borlaug Catchment Area has increased by 54 students over the last 5 years.

Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Borlaug Catchment Area

is projected to increase from 704 in 2016-17 to 719 students in 2026-27.

Historical Enrollment - Borlaug Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 62 54 61 26 54

1 56 57 57 62 60

2 40 52 63 65 68

3 52 35 51 64 62

4 47 52 42 59 62

5 43 36 52 57 53

6 49 35 45 39 41

7 50 46 42 47 57

8 48 43 49 48 46

9 60 40 46 50 56

10 40 53 39 51 47

11 54 43 50 44 48

12 49 51 39 57 50

Grand Total 650 597 636 669 704

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - Borlaug Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 349 321 371 372 400

7 - 8 98 89 91 95 103

9 - 12 203 187 174 202 201

Grand Total 650 597 636 669 704

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 45

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Borlaug Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 50 43 42 45 44 44 44 44 44 44

1 56 52 44 43 46 46 45 45 45 45

2 66 62 57 49 48 51 50 50 50 50

3 66 64 60 55 48 46 50 49 48 49

4 64 68 66 62 57 49 48 51 50 50

5 61 63 67 65 61 56 48 47 50 50

6 41 47 49 52 51 47 44 38 36 39

7 54 54 63 65 69 67 62 58 50 48

8 58 55 56 64 66 70 68 64 59 51

9 51 65 62 62 71 74 78 76 71 66

10 54 50 63 60 60 69 71 76 74 69

11 47 54 49 62 59 59 68 71 75 73

12 55 53 61 56 71 67 68 78 80 85

Grand Total 723 730 739 740 751 745 744 747 732 719


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Borlaug Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 404 399 385 371 355 339 329 324 323 327

7 - 8 112 109 119 129 135 137 130 122 109 99

9 - 12 207 222 235 240 261 269 285 301 300 293

Grand Total 723 730 739 740 751 745 744 747 732 719



11/28/2016 46

Coralville Central Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the Coralville Central Catchment Area has decreased by 41 students over the

last 5 years. Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Coralville

Central Catchment Area is projected to decrease from 798 in 2015-16 to 624 students in 2024-25.

Historical Enrollment - Coralville Central Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 62 80 67 72 56

1 76 61 64 63 62

2 58 73 67 64 69

3 48 63 66 65 57

4 63 60 66 70 59

5 71 64 54 67 61

6 76 65 67 59 58

7 67 77 60 59 51

8 73 76 77 65 50

9 68 66 71 66 63

10 58 77 71 69 70

11 60 58 70 66 69

12 59 61 71 70 73

Grand Total 839 881 871 855 798

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - Coralville Central Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 454 466 451 460 422

7 - 8 140 153 137 124 101

9 - 12 245 262 283 271 275

Grand Total 839 881 871 855 798

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 47

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Coralville Central Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 60 53 61 59 58 58 59 58 58 59

1 49 52 47 53 52 51 51 52 51 51

2 67 53 57 50 58 56 55 55 56 55

3 63 61 49 52 46 53 51 51 51 51

4 57 64 62 49 52 46 53 51 51 51

5 55 53 59 57 45 48 43 49 48 47

6 60 54 52 58 56 45 48 42 48 47

7 51 53 47 46 51 49 39 42 37 42

8 52 52 53 48 47 52 50 40 42 38

9 47 49 49 51 45 44 49 47 38 40

10 66 50 51 51 53 48 46 51 50 39

11 69 65 49 51 51 52 47 45 50 49

12 75 75 71 53 55 55 57 51 50 55

Grand Total 771 734 707 678 669 657 648 634 630 624


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Coralville Central Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 411 390 387 378 367 357 360 358 363 361

7 - 8 103 105 100 94 98 101 89 82 79 80

9 - 12 257 239 220 206 204 199 199 194 188 183

Grand Total 771 734 707 678 669 657 648 634 630 624


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Coralville Central

Catchment



11/28/2016 48

Garner Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the Garner Catchment Area has increased by 98 students over the last 5 years.

Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Garner Catchment Area is

projected to increase from 762 in 2016-17 to 808 students in 2024-25.

Historical Enrollment - Garner Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 82 91 73 91 63

1 80 74 94 72 88

2 67 67 65 90 65

3 58 68 65 68 80

4 64 57 69 67 63

5 46 67 57 70 67

6 51 46 65 56 57

7 52 60 47 63 47

8 43 47 56 47 54

9 28 37 50 48 50

10 38 31 36 53 50

11 29 37 33 34 44

12 26 32 32 35 34

Grand Total 664 714 742 794 762

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - Garner Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 448 470 488 514 483

7 - 8 95 107 103 110 101

9 - 12 121 137 151 170 178

Grand Total 664 714 742 794 762

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 49

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Garner Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 74 77 79 76 77 77 77 77 77 77

1 61 72 75 76 74 75 75 75 75 75

2 80 56 65 68 70 67 68 68 68 68

3 64 79 55 64 67 68 66 67 67 67

4 79 63 78 54 63 66 68 65 66 66

5 63 79 63 78 54 64 66 68 66 66

6 63 60 75 60 74 51 60 62 64 62

7 54 60 56 71 56 69 48 57 59 60

8 42 48 54 51 63 51 62 43 51 53

9 55 43 50 55 52 65 52 64 45 52

10 52 58 45 52 57 54 68 54 67 47

11 47 49 55 43 49 54 51 64 51 63

12 44 48 50 55 43 49 55 52 65 52

Grand Total 778 792 800 803 799 810 816 816 821 808


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Garner Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 484 486 490 476 479 468 480 482 483 481

7 - 8 96 108 110 122 119 120 110 100 110 113

9 - 12 198 198 200 205 201 222 226 234 228 214

Grand Total 778 792 800 803 799 810 816 816 821 808


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Garner Catchment



11/28/2016 50

Grant Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the Grant Catchment Area has increased by 67 students over the last 5 years.

Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Grant Catchment Area is


Historical Enrollment - Grant Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 30 29 37 44 39

1 30 30 31 45 46

2 28 33 33 29 43

3 34 30 35 31 38

4 29 38 35 35 33

5 34 31 41 40 40

6 35 37 33 42 39

7 35 40 38 30 43

8 39 34 39 39 33

9 38 38 34 33 40

10 43 36 38 35 33

11 31 39 33 41 39

12 35 32 41 31 42

Grand Total 441 447 468 475 508

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - Grant Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 220 228 245 266 278

7 - 8 74 74 77 69 76

9 - 12 147 145 146 140 154

Grand Total 441 447 468 475 508

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 51

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Grant Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 43 32 38 37 37 37 37 37 37 37

1 41 45 34 40 39 39 39 39 39 39

2 44 39 44 32 39 37 37 37 37 37

3 47 48 43 48 35 42 41 41 41 41

4 40 50 51 46 51 38 45 43 43 43

5 38 46 57 58 52 58 43 51 49 50

6 41 38 47 58 60 53 59 44 52 50

7 40 42 39 48 59 61 54 60 45 53

8 44 41 43 40 49 61 63 56 62 46

9 33 44 41 43 40 49 61 62 56 62

10 40 33 44 41 43 40 49 61 63 56

11 36 44 36 49 45 47 44 54 67 69

12 40 37 45 37 50 46 48 45 55 69

Grand Total 527 539 562 577 599 608 620 630 646 652


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Grant Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 294 298 314 319 313 304 301 292 298 297

7 - 8 84 83 82 88 108 122 117 116 107 99

9 - 12 149 158 166 170 178 182 202 222 241 256

Grand Total 527 539 562 577 599 608 620 630 646 652


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Grant Catchment



11/28/2016 52

Hills Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the Hills Catchment Area has increased by 16 students over the last 5 years.

Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Hills Catchment Area is

projected to decrease from 267 in 2016-17 to 196 students in 2026-27.

Historical Enrollment - Hills Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 32 26 20 30 21

1 38 24 30 22 25

2 17 35 29 29 20

3 17 16 35 29 35

4 20 15 17 30 30

5 17 15 19 17 27

6 15 19 21 15 14

7 10 15 18 16 16

8 22 9 13 17 17

9 11 20 17 19 13

10 16 13 22 15 16

11 15 14 12 17 14

12 21 16 14 12 19

Grand Total 251 237 267 268 267

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - Hills Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 156 150 171 172 172

7 - 8 32 24 31 33 33

9 - 12 63 63 65 63 62

Grand Total 251 237 267 268 267

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 53

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Hills Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 20 21 18 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

1 18 17 18 15 17 17 17 17 17 17

2 23 17 16 17 14 16 16 15 15 15

3 21 24 17 17 17 15 16 16 16 16

4 36 21 25 18 17 18 15 17 17 16

5 29 34 20 24 17 16 17 15 16 16

6 23 24 29 17 20 14 14 14 12 13

7 14 23 24 29 17 20 14 14 14 12

8 15 14 22 23 28 16 19 14 13 14

9 18 16 14 23 24 29 17 20 14 14

10 12 16 14 12 20 21 25 15 17 12

11 15 11 14 13 11 19 20 23 14 16

12 15 16 11 16 14 12 20 21 25 15

Grand Total 259 254 242 244 236 233 230 221 210 196


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Hills Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 170 158 143 128 122 116 115 114 113 113

7 - 8 29 37 46 52 45 36 33 28 27 26

9 - 12 60 59 53 64 69 81 82 79 70 57

Grand Total 259 254 242 244 236 233 230 221 210 196


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Hills Catchment



11/28/2016 54

Hoover Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the Hoover Catchment Area has increased by 60 students over the last 5 years.

Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Hoover Catchment Area is

projected to remain flat at 658 from the 2016-17 to the 2026-27 school year.

Historical Enrollment - Hoover Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 42 43 46 38 41

1 54 51 48 45 38

2 50 57 58 54 42

3 40 51 56 59 53

4 31 42 59 59 54

5 51 31 42 66 57

6 40 51 37 44 61

7 49 46 55 39 47

8 41 49 50 53 42

9 57 49 49 56 58

10 41 58 45 51 64

11 56 44 60 45 52

12 46 58 48 64 49

Grand Total 598 630 653 673 658

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - Hoover Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 308 326 346 365 346

7 - 8 90 95 105 92 89

9 - 12 200 209 202 216 223

Grand Total 598 630 653 673 658

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 55

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Hoover Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 45 58 33 44 44 43 42 43 43 43

1 41 45 58 33 44 44 43 42 43 43

2 40 44 48 62 35 47 46 46 45 46

3 41 40 43 47 61 35 46 46 45 45

4 55 43 42 45 49 64 37 48 48 47

5 54 56 44 42 45 49 64 37 48 48

6 56 53 55 43 41 44 48 63 36 47

7 65 60 57 58 46 44 47 52 67 38

8 50 69 63 60 61 48 46 50 55 71

9 46 54 75 69 66 67 53 51 55 60

10 60 48 56 78 71 68 70 54 52 57

11 65 61 48 57 79 73 69 71 56 53

12 56 71 66 53 62 86 79 75 77 60

Grand Total 674 702 688 691 704 712 690 678 670 658


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Hoover Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 332 339 323 316 319 326 326 325 308 319

7 - 8 115 129 120 118 107 92 93 102 122 109

9 - 12 227 234 245 257 278 294 271 251 240 230

Grand Total 674 702 688 691 704 712 690 678 670 658


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Hoover Catchment



11/28/2016 56

Horn Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the Horn Catchment Area has increased by 33 students over the last 5 years.

Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Horn Catchment Area is


Historical Enrollment - Horn Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 57 63 71 63 57

1 58 59 55 66 61

2 55 58 51 61 59

3 49 60 61 53 54

4 47 51 51 56 53

5 52 50 51 52 50

6 44 55 50 60 46

7 46 41 59 44 61

8 43 52 37 60 49

9 55 45 53 43 64

10 43 57 46 50 39

11 58 41 57 44 46

12 50 62 38 57 51

Grand Total 657 694 680 709 690

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - Horn Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 362 396 390 411 380

7 - 8 89 93 96 104 110

9 - 12 206 205 194 194 200

Grand Total 657 694 680 709 690

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 57

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Horn Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 75 77 77 74 76 76 76 76 76 76

1 55 72 74 74 71 73 73 72 72 72

2 58 52 68 70 70 67 69 69 68 68

3 60 59 52 69 71 71 69 70 70 70

4 52 58 57 51 67 69 68 66 68 68

5 53 52 58 56 51 66 69 68 66 67

6 51 54 54 59 58 52 68 71 70 68

7 46 51 54 53 59 58 52 68 70 70

8 63 48 53 56 55 62 60 54 71 73

9 52 68 51 57 60 59 66 65 58 76

10 60 49 63 47 53 56 55 61 60 54

11 37 57 47 61 45 51 54 53 59 57

12 48 39 59 49 63 47 53 56 55 61

Grand Total 710 736 767 776 799 807 832 849 863 880


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Horn Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 404 424 440 453 464 474 492 492 490 489

7 - 8 109 99 107 109 114 120 112 122 141 143

9 - 12 197 213 220 214 221 213 228 235 232 248

Grand Total 710 736 767 776 799 807 832 849 863 880


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Horn Catchment



11/28/2016 58

Kirkwood Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the Kirkwood Catchment Area has decreased by 24 students over the last 5

years. Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Kirkwood


Historical Enrollment - Kirkwood Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 55 64 59 57 54

1 60 58 69 52 47

2 56 52 52 63 49

3 63 53 52 51 57

4 46 52 56 51 56

5 54 52 60 43 51

6 58 49 53 60 48

7 62 55 47 56 52

8 41 61 59 48 44

9 45 50 62 58 60

10 55 41 53 54 47

11 48 56 45 49 59

12 48 57 54 50 43

Grand Total 691 700 721 692 667

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - Kirkwood Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 392 380 401 377 362

7 - 8 103 116 106 104 96

9 - 12 196 204 214 211 209

Grand Total 691 700 721 692 667

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 59

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Kirkwood Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 61 59 73 64 65 66 66 66 66 66

1 46 51 50 61 54 55 56 56 55 56

2 44 43 48 47 57 51 52 52 52 52

3 47 42 41 46 45 55 48 49 50 50

4 61 51 45 44 49 48 59 52 53 54

5 55 61 50 45 43 49 48 58 52 53

6 53 58 63 52 47 45 51 50 61 54

7 46 51 56 61 50 45 44 49 48 59

8 50 45 49 54 59 48 43 42 47 46

9 51 59 52 58 63 69 56 51 49 55

10 51 44 50 44 49 53 58 48 43 42

11 51 55 47 54 48 53 58 63 52 47

12 56 48 53 45 51 45 51 55 60 49

Grand Total 672 667 677 675 680 682 690 691 688 683


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Kirkwood Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 367 365 370 359 360 369 380 383 389 385

7 - 8 96 96 105 115 109 93 87 91 95 105

9 - 12 209 206 202 201 211 220 223 217 204 193

Grand Total 672 667 677 675 680 682 690 691 688 683


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Kirkwood Catchment



11/28/2016 60

Lemme Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the Lemme Catchment Area has decreased by 16 students over the last 5 years.

Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Lemme Catchment Area

is projected to decrease from 664 in 2016-17 to 619 students in 2026-27.

Historical Enrollment - Lemme Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 57 54 34 52 47

1 42 59 52 38 49

2 48 36 58 54 39

3 60 45 37 56 47

4 60 60 50 42 57

5 40 59 57 46 41

6 53 41 61 65 46

7 57 52 45 64 58

8 44 55 48 53 65

9 53 45 54 48 51

10 48 52 46 59 53

11 51 49 55 48 58

12 67 62 55 62 53

Grand Total 680 669 652 687 664

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - Lemme Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 360 354 349 353 326

7 - 8 101 107 93 117 123

9 - 12 219 208 210 217 215

Grand Total 680 669 652 687 664

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 61

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Lemme Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 46 38 53 46 46 47 47 47 47 47

1 46 45 37 51 45 45 46 46 46 46

2 50 47 46 38 53 46 46 47 47 47

3 37 48 45 44 36 50 44 44 44 45

4 50 40 51 48 47 38 53 47 47 47

5 55 48 38 49 46 45 37 51 45 45

6 43 57 50 39 51 47 47 38 53 47

7 46 43 57 50 40 51 48 47 38 53

8 59 47 44 58 51 40 52 49 48 39

9 63 58 46 43 57 50 39 51 47 47

10 56 70 63 51 47 62 55 43 56 52

11 53 56 70 64 51 47 63 55 43 56

12 64 59 62 78 71 56 52 70 61 48

Grand Total 668 656 662 659 641 624 629 635 622 619


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Lemme Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 327 323 320 315 324 318 320 320 329 324

7 - 8 105 90 101 108 91 91 100 96 86 92

9 - 12 236 243 241 236 226 215 209 219 207 203

Grand Total 668 656 662 659 641 624 629 635 622 619


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Lemme Catchment



11/28/2016 62

Lincoln Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the Lincoln Catchment Area has decreased by 7 students over the last 5 years.

Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Lincoln Catchment Area is


Historical Enrollment - Lincoln Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 33 35 21 34 29

1 25 33 36 25 38

2 32 29 30 32 21

3 28 32 27 25 32

4 26 27 28 27 28

5 23 26 23 25 29

6 29 28 23 21 29

7 26 31 27 26 21

8 29 23 26 21 25

9 24 26 20 26 20

10 17 26 24 14 25

11 21 15 27 23 14

12 28 23 14 26 23

Grand Total 341 354 326 325 334

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - Lincoln Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 196 210 188 189 206

7 - 8 55 54 53 47 46

9 - 12 90 90 85 89 82

Grand Total 341 354 326 325 334

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 63

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Lincoln Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 31 30 36 32 33 33 33 33 33 33

1 33 34 33 40 36 37 37 37 37 37

2 33 28 30 29 35 31 32 32 32 32

3 20 31 27 28 27 33 30 30 30 30

4 32 20 31 27 28 27 33 30 30 30

5 26 30 19 29 25 26 26 31 28 28

6 32 29 33 20 32 28 29 28 34 31

7 30 33 30 34 21 33 28 30 29 35

8 19 27 30 27 31 19 30 26 27 26

9 24 18 26 29 26 30 18 29 25 26

10 18 22 17 24 26 24 27 17 26 22

11 25 18 22 16 23 26 24 27 17 26

12 14 25 18 21 16 23 26 23 27 16

Grand Total 337 345 352 356 359 370 373 373 375 372


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Lincoln Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 207 202 209 205 216 215 220 221 224 221

7 - 8 49 60 60 61 52 52 58 56 56 61

9 - 12 81 83 83 90 91 103 95 96 95 90

Grand Total 337 345 352 356 359 370 373 373 375 372


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Lincoln Catchment



11/28/2016 64

Longfellow Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the Longfellow Catchment Area has increased by 85 students over the last 5

years. Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Longfellow


Historical Enrollment - Longfellow Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 40 33 38 42 34

1 37 40 31 39 43

2 37 39 41 34 40

3 38 38 33 39 32

4 31 36 37 36 39

5 23 32 35 36 39

6 35 19 32 35 41

7 21 38 19 33 40

8 24 19 38 18 36

9 23 27 21 37 21

10 24 20 33 27 36

11 19 23 20 26 26

12 22 19 18 23 32

Grand Total 374 383 396 425 459

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - Longfellow Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 241 237 247 261 268

7 - 8 45 57 57 51 76

9 - 12 88 89 92 113 115

Grand Total 374 383 396 425 459

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 65

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Longfellow Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 45 39 35 38 38 37 37 38 38 38

1 35 46 40 36 39 39 38 38 39 38

2 45 36 48 42 37 40 40 40 40 40

3 38 42 34 45 39 35 38 38 37 37

4 32 38 42 34 45 40 35 38 38 38

5 40 33 38 43 35 46 40 35 39 39

6 39 39 32 38 42 34 45 40 35 38

7 44 41 42 34 40 45 37 48 42 37

8 39 43 41 41 34 40 44 36 47 42

9 40 44 48 45 46 38 44 50 40 53

10 22 43 47 51 48 49 40 47 53 43

11 34 21 41 45 49 46 47 38 45 50

12 30 40 25 48 52 57 54 54 45 53

Grand Total 483 505 513 540 544 546 539 540 538 546


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Longfellow Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 274 273 269 276 275 271 273 267 266 268

7 - 8 83 84 83 75 74 85 81 84 89 79

9 - 12 126 148 161 189 195 190 185 189 183 199

Grand Total 483 505 513 540 544 546 539 540 538 546


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Longfellow Catchment



11/28/2016 66

Lucas Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the Lucas Catchment Area has increased by 38 students over the last 5 years.

Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Lucas Catchment Area is


Historical Enrollment - Lucas Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 51 62 41 49 58

1 54 57 64 36 45

2 31 57 48 56 36

3 57 33 58 47 57

4 40 58 30 52 40

5 43 45 52 41 52

6 52 43 44 48 38

7 43 56 46 39 48

8 44 53 52 45 34

9 35 45 55 49 54

10 51 41 44 59 49

11 40 45 42 45 56

12 42 59 51 47 54

Grand Total 583 654 627 613 621

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - Lucas Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 328 355 337 329 326

7 - 8 87 109 98 84 82

9 - 12 168 190 192 200 213

Grand Total 583 654 627 613 621

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 67

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Lucas Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 69 50 52 56 55 54 54 55 54 54

1 53 63 46 48 51 50 50 50 50 50

2 44 52 62 45 46 49 49 48 48 49

3 36 44 52 62 45 47 50 49 49 49

4 50 32 39 46 54 40 41 44 43 42

5 43 54 34 42 49 59 43 44 47 47

6 48 40 50 32 39 46 55 40 41 44

7 38 48 40 50 32 39 45 54 40 41

8 44 35 44 37 45 29 35 42 50 36

9 36 46 36 46 38 48 30 37 44 52

10 55 36 47 37 47 39 48 31 37 44

11 48 53 35 45 36 45 38 47 30 36

12 64 55 61 40 52 41 52 43 54 34

Grand Total 628 608 598 586 589 586 590 584 587 578


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Lucas Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 343 335 335 331 339 345 342 330 332 335

7 - 8 82 83 84 87 77 68 80 96 90 77

9 - 12 203 190 179 168 173 173 168 158 165 166

Grand Total 628 608 598 586 589 586 590 584 587 578


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Lucas Catchment



11/28/2016 68

Mann Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the Mann Catchment Area has increased by 6 students over the last 5 years.

Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Mann Catchment Area is


Historical Enrollment - Mann Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 35 26 27 36 26

1 21 37 26 21 37

2 27 20 33 30 22

3 32 29 20 33 27

4 24 31 27 17 34

5 19 25 30 26 18

6 26 19 27 32 25

7 17 30 18 24 29

8 21 16 27 17 24

9 25 20 15 23 17

10 22 28 20 20 25

11 27 24 29 22 20

12 23 23 27 26 21

Grand Total 319 328 326 327 325

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - Mann Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 184 187 190 195 189

7 - 8 38 46 45 41 53

9 - 12 97 95 91 91 83

Grand Total 319 328 326 327 325

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 69

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Mann Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 22 38 33 32 32 33 32 32 33 33

1 26 22 38 34 32 33 33 33 33 33

2 38 27 23 40 35 33 34 34 34 34

3 22 38 27 23 39 34 33 34 34 34

4 27 22 38 27 23 39 34 33 34 34

5 35 28 23 39 28 24 41 36 34 35

6 19 37 29 23 41 29 25 42 37 35

7 23 17 33 26 21 37 26 22 39 34

8 27 22 16 32 25 20 35 25 21 36

9 22 26 20 15 30 23 19 33 23 20

10 19 25 28 22 17 33 26 21 36 26

11 26 20 26 29 23 17 34 27 22 38

12 19 25 19 25 28 22 16 32 26 21

Grand Total 325 347 353 367 374 377 388 404 406 413


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Mann Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 189 212 211 218 230 225 232 244 239 238

7 - 8 50 39 49 58 46 57 61 47 60 70

9 - 12 86 96 93 91 98 95 95 113 107 105

Grand Total 325 347 353 367 374 377 388 404 406 413


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Mann Catchment



11/28/2016 70

Penn Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the Penn Catchment Area has increased by 241 students over the last 5 years.

Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Penn Catchment Area is

projected to increase from 990 in 2014-15 to 1,511 students in 2026-27.

Historical Enrollment - Penn Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 69 81 96 94 121

1 80 76 80 90 94

2 77 75 83 90 86

3 76 75 82 88 75

4 71 78 71 90 85

5 72 69 81 70 85

6 42 65 68 77 73

7 52 45 66 72 75

8 54 57 54 67 69

9 34 51 61 52 71

10 49 33 51 59 52

11 35 50 30 49 59

12 38 36 50 36 45

Grand Total 749 791 873 934 990

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - Penn Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 487 519 561 599 619

7 - 8 106 102 120 139 144

9 - 12 156 170 192 196 227

Grand Total 749 791 873 934 990

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 71

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Penn Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 129 121 124 123 123 123 123 123 123 123

1 119 128 120 122 121 122 121 122 122 122

2 97 123 131 123 125 124 125 125 125 125

3 85 96 122 130 122 124 123 124 124 124

4 75 85 95 121 130 122 124 123 124 123

5 82 72 82 92 117 125 117 119 118 119

6 84 81 72 81 91 116 124 116 119 118

7 73 84 81 72 81 91 116 124 116 119

8 75 73 84 81 71 81 91 116 124 116

9 71 77 75 87 84 74 84 94 120 128

10 71 71 77 75 87 83 73 83 94 119

11 51 70 70 76 74 86 83 73 83 93

12 59 51 70 70 76 74 85 82 72 82

Grand Total 1,071 1,132 1,203 1,253 1,302 1,345 1,389 1,424 1,464 1,511


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Penn Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 671 706 746 792 829 856 857 852 855 854

7 - 8 148 157 165 153 152 172 207 240 240 235

9 - 12 252 269 292 308 321 317 325 332 369 422

Grand Total 1,071 1,132 1,203 1,253 1,302 1,345 1,389 1,424 1,464 1,511


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Penn Catchment



11/28/2016 72

Shimek Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the Shimek Catchment Area has decreased by 9 students over the last 5 years.

Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Shimek Catchment Area is


Historical Enrollment - Shimek Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 12 29 23 33 20

1 34 12 30 27 29

2 29 34 14 33 28

3 22 28 34 20 36

4 23 23 26 34 20

5 22 24 21 26 35

6 23 21 23 22 27

7 25 23 20 21 24

8 22 26 23 19 23

9 26 22 28 21 17

10 33 26 25 28 23

11 34 31 27 24 25

12 33 35 34 27 22

Grand Total 338 334 328 335 329

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - Shimek Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 165 171 171 195 195

7 - 8 47 49 43 40 47

9 - 12 126 114 114 100 87

Grand Total 338 334 328 335 329

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 73

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Shimek Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 33 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27

1 20 34 26 26 28 28 27 27 27 27

2 31 22 35 27 27 29 29 29 29 29

3 31 34 24 39 30 30 32 32 32 32

4 36 31 34 24 39 30 30 32 32 32

5 20 37 32 34 24 40 31 31 33 33

6 36 21 38 33 36 25 41 32 32 34

7 27 36 21 38 32 35 25 41 32 32

8 25 27 37 21 38 33 36 25 42 33

9 21 23 25 34 20 35 30 33 23 38

10 18 23 24 27 36 21 38 33 36 25

11 22 18 22 23 26 35 20 37 31 34

12 25 22 18 22 23 26 35 20 37 32

Grand Total 345 354 362 375 386 394 401 399 413 408


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Shimek Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 207 205 215 210 211 209 217 210 212 214

7 - 8 52 63 58 59 70 68 61 66 74 65

9 - 12 86 86 89 106 105 117 123 123 127 129

Grand Total 345 354 362 375 386 394 401 399 413 408


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Shimek Catchment



11/28/2016 74

Twain Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the Twain Catchment Area has increased by 93 students over the last 5 years.

Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Twain Catchment Area is


Historical Enrollment - Twain Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 32 32 32 45 64

1 29 35 34 34 46

2 29 25 27 30 38

3 27 26 32 28 27

4 29 23 29 29 26

5 23 25 23 27 31

6 27 23 26 31 25

7 28 19 20 31 32

8 26 23 23 20 34

9 19 24 27 27 20

10 22 17 27 26 31

11 19 24 21 24 26

12 25 21 31 21 28

Grand Total 335 317 352 373 428

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - Twain Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 196 189 203 224 257

7 - 8 54 42 43 51 66

9 - 12 85 86 106 98 105

Grand Total 335 317 352 373 428

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 75

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Twain Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 44 50 45 46 46 46 46 46 46 46

1 66 45 52 47 48 48 48 48 48 48

2 42 60 41 47 43 43 44 44 44 44

3 36 39 57 39 44 40 41 41 41 41

4 25 33 36 53 36 41 37 38 38 38

5 27 26 34 37 54 37 42 38 39 39

6 31 27 26 34 37 54 37 42 38 39

7 26 32 28 27 35 39 56 38 44 40

8 34 28 35 30 29 38 42 60 41 47

9 35 36 29 36 31 30 39 43 63 43

10 23 40 41 33 41 35 34 45 49 71

11 31 23 40 40 33 41 35 34 45 49

12 30 35 26 46 46 38 47 40 39 51

Grand Total 450 474 490 515 523 530 548 557 575 596


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Twain Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 271 280 291 303 308 309 295 297 294 295

7 - 8 60 60 63 57 64 77 98 98 85 87

9 - 12 119 134 136 155 151 144 155 162 196 214

Grand Total 450 474 490 515 523 530 548 557 575 596


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Twain Catchment



11/28/2016 76

Van Allen Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the Van Allen Catchment Area has increased by 87 students over the last 5

years. Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Van Allen

Catchment Area is projected to increase from 787 in 2016-17 to 1,033 students in 2026-27.

Historical Enrollment - Van Allen Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 71 66 79 77 70

1 71 78 62 85 67

2 56 72 77 65 77

3 73 58 74 75 61

4 58 77 47 83 73

5 68 62 69 52 77

6 44 63 55 71 52

7 55 44 55 57 68

8 61 54 38 51 57

9 41 57 42 42 48

10 34 42 58 37 41

11 31 39 40 56 42

12 37 34 36 35 54

Grand Total 700 746 732 786 787

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - Van Allen Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 441 476 463 508 477

7 - 8 116 98 93 108 125

9 - 12 143 172 176 170 185

Grand Total 700 746 732 786 787

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 77

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Van Allen Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 94 99 117 102 105 106 106 106 106 106

1 64 86 90 106 93 96 97 97 96 96

2 64 60 82 86 101 88 91 92 92 91

3 74 61 58 78 82 97 85 87 88 88

4 61 73 61 58 78 82 96 84 87 87

5 70 58 70 58 55 74 78 92 81 83

6 77 70 58 70 58 55 74 78 92 81

7 50 75 68 56 68 56 53 72 76 90

8 67 50 73 67 55 67 55 53 71 74

9 55 64 48 71 64 53 64 53 51 68

10 47 53 63 46 69 62 52 63 52 49

11 44 50 58 67 50 74 67 56 68 56

12 40 42 48 55 64 47 70 64 53 64

Grand Total 807 841 894 920 942 957 988 997 1,013 1,033


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Van Allen Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 504 507 536 558 572 598 627 636 642 632

7 - 8 117 125 141 123 123 123 108 125 147 164

9 - 12 186 209 217 239 247 236 253 236 224 237

Grand Total 807 841 894 920 942 957 988 997 1,013 1,033


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Van Allen Catchment



11/28/2016 78

Weber Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the Weber Catchment Area has increased by 138 students over the last 5 years.

Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Weber Catchment Area is

projected to increase from 924 in 2016-17 to 1,093 students in 2026-27.

Historical Enrollment - Weber Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 71 75 64 78 69

1 54 78 78 62 77

2 58 64 78 76 68

3 59 69 62 73 79

4 63 65 64 61 77

5 69 64 65 62 62

6 77 70 62 70 67

7 67 83 70 66 72

8 56 71 78 71 63

9 53 58 72 77 76

10 55 61 60 75 82

11 54 57 58 65 67

12 50 60 59 62 65

Grand Total 786 875 870 898 924

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - Weber Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 451 485 473 482 499

7 - 8 123 154 148 137 135

9 - 12 212 236 249 279 290

Grand Total 786 875 870 898 924

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 79

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Weber Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 80 69 71 75 73 73 73 73 73 73

1 68 79 68 70 74 72 71 72 72 72

2 83 73 85 72 75 79 77 77 77 77

3 69 84 74 86 73 76 80 78 78 78

4 81 71 86 76 88 75 78 82 80 80

5 78 82 71 87 77 89 76 79 83 81

6 67 83 88 77 93 82 96 82 85 89

7 69 69 86 91 79 96 85 99 85 87

8 70 67 67 84 88 77 94 83 96 82

9 66 73 70 70 87 92 81 98 86 100

10 81 70 77 74 74 93 98 85 104 91

11 78 76 66 73 71 70 88 93 81 98

12 71 82 80 70 77 74 74 93 98 85

Grand Total 961 978 989 1,005 1,029 1,048 1,071 1,094 1,098 1,093


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Weber Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 526 541 543 543 553 546 551 543 548 550

7 - 8 139 136 153 175 167 173 179 182 181 169

9 - 12 296 301 293 287 309 329 341 369 369 374

Grand Total 961 978 989 1,005 1,029 1,048 1,071 1,094 1,098 1,093


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Weber Catchment



11/28/2016 80

Wickham Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the Wickham Catchment Area has decreased by 5 students over the last 5 years.

Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Wickham Catchment

Area is projected to increase from 768 in 2016-17 to 806 students in 2026-27.

Historical Enrollment - Wickham Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 56 61 50 51 63

1 51 55 67 52 50

2 67 51 58 64 55

3 78 68 53 63 57

4 55 72 72 56 62

5 55 52 70 65 49

6 64 55 54 75 68

7 55 62 51 59 74

8 62 52 63 51 57

9 53 62 54 69 54

10 64 55 67 55 62

11 63 60 60 62 58

12 50 59 58 58 59

Grand Total 773 764 777 780 768

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - Wickham Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 426 414 424 426 404

7 - 8 117 114 114 110 131

9 - 12 230 236 239 244 233

Grand Total 773 764 777 780 768

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 81

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Wickham Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 65 54 69 63 63 63 64 63 64 64

1 63 65 54 70 63 64 64 64 64 64

2 52 66 68 56 73 66 66 66 67 66

3 55 52 66 69 57 73 66 67 67 67

4 57 56 53 67 69 57 73 66 67 67

5 55 51 50 47 60 62 51 66 59 60

6 51 58 54 52 49 63 65 53 69 62

7 67 51 58 53 52 49 62 64 53 68

8 72 66 50 56 52 50 48 60 62 52

9 61 77 70 53 60 55 54 51 64 66

10 54 61 77 71 53 60 56 54 51 65

11 63 56 63 79 72 55 62 57 55 52

12 55 61 53 60 76 69 52 59 54 53

Grand Total 770 774 785 796 799 786 783 790 796 806


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Wickham Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 398 402 414 424 434 448 449 445 457 450

7 - 8 139 117 108 109 104 99 110 124 115 120

9 - 12 233 255 263 263 261 239 224 221 224 236

Grand Total 770 774 785 796 799 786 783 790 796 806


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Wickham Catchment



11/28/2016 82

Wood Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the Wood Catchment Area has decreased by 116 students over the last 5 years.

Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student enrollment in the Wood Catchment Area is


Historical Enrollment - Wood Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 81 51 72 71 64

1 72 67 63 75 67

2 77 75 63 61 67

3 69 71 68 59 52

4 70 59 63 68 59

5 90 67 67 73 59

6 74 86 66 70 62

7 73 69 84 58 56

8 77 72 68 87 65

9 72 70 64 65 73

10 62 70 77 56 68

11 61 68 69 67 63

12 77 72 75 75 84

Grand Total 955 897 899 885 839

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - Wood Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 533 476 462 477 430

7 - 8 150 141 152 145 121

9 - 12 272 280 285 263 288

Grand Total 955 897 899 885 839

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 83

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Wood Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 84 72 74 76 75 75 75 75 75 75

1 65 85 73 75 77 76 76 76 76 76

2 63 60 79 68 70 72 71 71 71 71

3 61 57 55 72 62 64 65 64 64 64

4 52 61 57 55 72 62 64 65 64 64

5 61 54 62 58 56 74 63 66 67 66

6 57 58 51 60 56 54 71 61 63 64

7 55 50 52 45 53 49 48 63 54 56

8 58 57 52 53 47 55 51 49 65 56

9 57 50 49 45 46 41 48 45 43 56

10 74 58 51 50 46 47 42 49 45 44

11 69 76 59 52 51 47 48 43 50 46

12 73 80 88 68 61 59 54 56 49 57

Grand Total 829 818 802 777 772 775 776 783 786 795


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Wood Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 443 447 451 464 468 477 485 478 480 480

7 - 8 113 107 104 98 100 104 99 112 119 112

9 - 12 273 264 247 215 204 194 192 193 187 203

Grand Total 829 818 802 777 772 775 776 783 786 795


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Wood Catchment



11/28/2016 84

Conclusion

As with any projection, the District should pay close attention to live birth counts, enrollment in

elementary schools, open enrollment, non-public enrollment, in/out migration patterns, and any housing

growth. It is recommended that this document be reviewed on an annual basis to determine how more

recent growth and enrollment trends will impact the enrollment projections.

DeJONG-RICHTER is pleased to have had the opportunity to provide the District with enrollment

projection services. We hope this document will provide the necessary information to make informed

decisions about the future of the Iowa City Community School District.


11/28/2016 85

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11/28/2016 86

Appendix


11/28/2016 87

Historical / Projected Enrollment by Junior High / High School Catchment

The following pages illustrate historical and projected enrollment (recommended) by junior high / high

school catchment area.

North Central JH / Liberty HS Catchment Area .......................................................................................... 88

Northwest JH / West HS Catchment Area ................................................................................................... 90

Southeast JH / City HS Catchment Area ..................................................................................................... 92


11/28/2016 88

North Central JH / Liberty HS Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the North Central Junior High / Liberty High School Catchment Area has

increased by 469 students over the last 5 years. Based on the recommended projected enrollment,

student enrollment in the North Central Junior High / Liberty High School Catchment Area is projected to

increase from 3,714 in 2016-17 to 4,687 students in 2026-27.

The North Central Junior High / Liberty High School Catchment Area is made up of the Garner, Grant,

Kirkwood, Penn, and Van Allen Elementary Catchment areas.

Historical Enrollment - North Central JH / Liberty HS Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 307 331 344 363 347

1 321 316 336 344 342

2 284 299 310 337 320

3 304 284 308 313 311

4 268 302 278 326 310

5 274 281 308 275 320

6 230 260 274 306 269

7 256 244 253 278 285

8 238 253 246 252 257

9 186 233 249 233 269

10 219 183 236 238 223

11 174 221 181 229 243

12 184 191 213 187 218

Grand Total 3,245 3,398 3,536 3,681 3,714

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - North Central JH / Liberty HS Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 1,988 2,073 2,158 2,264 2,219

7 - 8 494 497 499 530 542

9 - 12 763 828 879 887 953

Grand Total 3,245 3,398 3,536 3,681 3,714

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 89

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - North Central JH / Liberty HS Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 401 388 431 402 407 409 409 409 409 409

1 331 382 369 405 381 387 388 389 387 388

2 329 321 370 356 392 367 373 374 374 373

3 317 326 319 366 351 386 363 368 370 370

4 316 322 330 323 371 356 392 367 373 373

5 308 316 322 331 321 370 352 388 366 371

6 318 307 315 321 330 320 368 350 388 365

7 263 312 300 308 314 322 315 362 344 381

8 278 257 303 293 297 308 314 310 355 335

9 265 287 266 314 303 310 317 324 321 365

10 261 259 279 258 305 292 300 309 319 313

11 229 268 266 289 266 314 303 310 321 328

12 239 226 266 262 284 261 309 298 305 316

Grand Total 3,855 3,971 4,136 4,228 4,322 4,402 4,503 4,558 4,632 4,687


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - North Central JH / Liberty HS Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 2,320 2,362 2,456 2,504 2,553 2,595 2,645 2,645 2,667 2,649

7 - 8 541 569 603 601 611 630 629 672 699 716

9 - 12 994 1,040 1,077 1,123 1,158 1,177 1,229 1,241 1,266 1,322

Grand Total 3,855 3,971 4,136 4,228 4,322 4,402 4,503 4,558 4,632 4,687


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Historical & Projected Enrollment - North Central JH /

Liberty HS Catchment



11/28/2016 90

Northwest JH / West HS Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the Northwest Junior High / West High School Catchment Area has increased by

327 students over the last 5 years. Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student

enrollment in the Northwest Junior High / West High School Catchment Area is projected to increase

from 4,826 in 2016-17 to 5,218 students in 2026-27.

The Northwest Junior High / West High School Catchment Area is made up of the Alexander, Borlaug,

Coralville Central, Hills, Horn, Weber, and Wickham Elementary Catchment areas.

Historical Enrollment - Northwest JH / West HS Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 386 425 390 379 384

1 377 387 422 383 396

2 332 380 401 423 386

3 348 349 388 404 416

4 334 362 352 388 393

5 343 321 357 358 361

6 369 339 340 357 332

7 342 367 344 340 375

8 347 349 361 357 329

9 341 337 363 374 371

10 317 356 353 362 361

11 337 319 359 351 346

12 326 351 333 365 376

Grand Total 4,499 4,642 4,763 4,841 4,826

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - Northwest JH / West HS Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 2,489 2,563 2,650 2,692 2,668

7 - 8 689 716 705 697 704

9 - 12 1,321 1,363 1,408 1,452 1,454

Grand Total 4,499 4,642 4,763 4,841 4,826

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 91

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Northwest JH / West HS Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 417 400 412 410 409 410 411 409 410 411

1 375 406 390 402 400 401 399 399 399 399

2 401 380 410 387 404 401 400 399 399 398

3 386 402 381 414 394 407 405 405 405 405

4 411 385 401 379 409 387 401 398 399 399

5 383 401 373 390 369 398 379 392 390 390

6 352 371 392 363 380 361 396 375 387 385

7 344 367 390 412 381 400 379 414 394 403

8 373 344 365 387 409 380 398 379 410 392

9 344 393 360 383 406 429 400 418 397 432

10 369 341 386 355 375 401 421 393 413 391

11 355 361 334 381 350 369 394 413 386 402

12 368 376 382 355 402 369 394 419 440 411

Grand Total 4,878 4,927 4,976 5,018 5,088 5,113 5,177 5,213 5,229 5,218


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Northwest JH / West HS Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 2,725 2,745 2,759 2,745 2,765 2,765 2,791 2,777 2,789 2,787

7 - 8 717 711 755 799 790 780 777 793 804 795

9 - 12 1,436 1,471 1,462 1,474 1,533 1,568 1,609 1,643 1,636 1,636

Grand Total 4,878 4,927 4,976 5,018 5,088 5,113 5,177 5,213 5,229 5,218


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Northwest JH / West HS

Catchment



11/28/2016 92

Southeast JH / City HS Catchment Area

Historical enrollment in the Southeast Junior High / City High School Catchment Area has increased by

134 students over the last 5 years. Based on the recommended projected enrollment, student

enrollment in the Southeast Junior High / City High School Catchment Area is projected to increase from

4,657 in 2016-17 to 4,985 students in 2026-27.

The Southeast Junior High / City High School Catchment Area is made up of the Hoover, Lemme,

Lincoln, Longfellow, Lucas, Mann, Shimek, Twain, and Wood Elementary Catchment areas.

Historical Enrollment - Southeast JH / City HS Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K 383 365 334 400 383

1 368 391 384 340 392

2 360 372 372 384 333

3 373 353 365 366 363

4 334 359 349 364 357

5 334 334 350 366 361

6 359 331 339 368 354

7 339 364 334 335 355

8 328 336 355 333 348

9 334 328 333 352 331

10 320 338 341 340 374

11 328 323 350 324 340

12 363 372 353 371 366

Grand Total 4,523 4,566 4,559 4,643 4,657

Source: ICCSD

Historical Enrollment - Southeast JH / City HS Catchment

Grade 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

K - 6 2,511 2,505 2,493 2,588 2,543

7 - 8 667 700 689 668 703

9 - 12 1,345 1,361 1,377 1,387 1,411

Grand Total 4,523 4,566 4,559 4,643 4,657

Source: ICCSD


11/28/2016 93

Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Southeast JH / City HS Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K 419 401 387 397 396 395 393 396 396 396

1 385 419 403 390 400 400 398 397 399 398

2 386 376 412 398 381 390 391 391 390 392

3 322 373 364 399 383 368 379 378 376 377

4 359 320 370 359 393 381 364 375 374 372

5 361 366 324 373 362 400 387 369 380 380

6 361 361 364 322 375 361 398 386 369 379

7 354 360 360 362 320 372 360 395 385 366

8 355 355 362 359 361 322 371 362 396 386

9 344 355 354 362 360 362 320 372 363 395

10 345 365 374 373 379 378 380 340 390 384

11 373 346 363 371 371 377 378 379 339 388

12 375 412 383 401 411 408 415 413 415 372

Grand Total 4,739 4,809 4,820 4,866 4,892 4,914 4,934 4,953 4,972 4,985


Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Southeast JH / City HS Catchment

Grade 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27

K - 6 2,593 2,616 2,624 2,638 2,690 2,695 2,710 2,692 2,684 2,694

7 - 8 709 715 722 721 681 694 731 757 781 752

9 - 12 1,437 1,478 1,474 1,507 1,521 1,525 1,493 1,504 1,507 1,539

Grand Total 4,739 4,809 4,820 4,866 4,892 4,914 4,934 4,953 4,972 4,985


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Historical & Projected Enrollment - Southeast JH / City HS

Catchment


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