Enrollment History and Strategies · Best Case –1% Down 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Bdgt Stblty...
Transcript of Enrollment History and Strategies · Best Case –1% Down 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Bdgt Stblty...
Enrollment History and Strategies
Kathie Welch
October 7, 2015
"Now, here, you see, it takes all of the running you can do to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!" –Red Queen in Through the Looking Glass by Lewis Carrol, Drawing by John Tenniel
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Fall
20
00
Fall
20
01
Fall
20
02
Fall
20
03
Fall
20
04
Fall
20
05
Fall
20
06
Fall
20
07
Fall
20
08
Fall
20
09
Fall
20
10
Fall
20
11
Fall
20
12
Fall
20
13
Fall
20
14
Fall
20
15
Fall CensusHeadcount
Fall FinalFTES
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015
2015-2016
2016-2017
FTES
Apportionment FTES History
Cap Actual
Challenges
• Decline in overall headcount
• Regulatory changes and increased reporting accuracy caused an overall significant decrease in ongoing FTES• TBA clean up (~ 400 FTES decline
over two years)• Positive hours reporting change in
Athletics and performing arts in VAPA from 11-12 to 12-13 (~ 150 to 200 FTES decline)
• FTES decline Changes in flex time regulatory reporting (~ 600 FTES decline)
• Aligning enrollment data reporting tools: tracker, XFTE, CSAR, 320
• Curricular changes
• Repeatability
• Other legislative changes in financial aid and registration priorities
• Capacity constraints• Large lecture classrooms• Wet Labs• Online instruction
Opportunities• Distance Education and
cybersession• Summer Terms• Long term trend towards
more full time enrollments• Enhance retention• Aligned enrollment data
reporting tools: tracker, XFTE, CSAR, 320
• Section coding corrections (~ +15 FTES)
• SSSP and Equity funding (retention and success of existing students improved)
• Hopefully moves the needle to get more through basic skills to transfer
• Noncredit CTE certificates• Increased business
partnerships that can increase enrollments
• Concurrent HS students
Best Case – 1% Down 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17Bdgt Stblty
Summer 1 587 89 368Fall 5,006 4,758 4,758 Spring 4,669 4,523 4,523 Summer 2 629 350 460 258 remain
PS Inservice 300 300 Inservice – AdditionalTotal 10,891 10,020 10,409
Mid Case – 2% Down 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17Bdgt Stblty
Summer 1 587 89 268 Fall 5,006 4,710 4,710 Spring 4,669 4,478 4,478 Summer 2 629 450 650 68 remain
PS Inservice 300 300 Inservice – AdditionalTotal 10,891 10,027 10,406
Worst Case – 3% Down 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17Bdgt Stblty
Summer 1 587 89 193 Fall 5,006 4,662 4,662 Spring 4,669 4,432 4,432 Summer 2 629 525 718 PS Inservice 300 300 Inservice – AdditionalTotal 10,891 10,008 10,305
High Level Enrollment Projections
The following assumptions are made for the mid-case scenario:• 2% decline in 15-16 primary terms as
compared to 14-15 primary terms• 232 tus permanently removed in 15-16• Summers are not balanced (used both
summers in 14-15)• Use most of summer 2 in 15-16
(summer 16)• Use most of summer 2 in 16-17
(summer 17)• Growth potential from new FTES cap
• DE• STEAM• Enhanced Noncredit program• Fitness Education Center• Summer session• Concurrent High School• Enrollment• Other
Thank You!