Enrique Guevara - Bienvenido! · The critical role of volcano monitoring in risk reduction R. I....
Transcript of Enrique Guevara - Bienvenido! · The critical role of volcano monitoring in risk reduction R. I....
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• Degree of Electronic Engineer, National University of Mexico (UNAM), 1992
Thesis: Design and Development of a Strong Motion Acquisition System
• Diploma on “Management of Disaster Prevention and Civil Protection Programs”
National Institute of Public Administration (Mexico), 2002
Thesis: CENAPRED Operative Plan and Procedures for emergencies at
Popocatepetl volcano
• Head of Seismic Instrumentation Department, CENAPRED, 1990-1994
• Head of Volcanic Monitoring Department, CENAPRED, 1994-1996
• Operative Coordinator of the National Seismological Service, UNAM, 1997-2000
• Member of the Advisory Scientific Committee for Popocatepetl volcano
• Member of the Technical-Scientific Committee for the Natural Disaster Prevention
Fund
• Member of the Technical-Scientific Committee of the Mexican Seismic Network
Enrique Guevara
Director of Instrumentation, Monitoring and Computing
National Center for Disaster Prevention, CENAPRED
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Volcanic Risk Managemet
The role of science and technology
Enrique Guevara Ortíz
Centro Nacional de Prevención de Desastres
Mayo, 2011
3http://nuestropensar.com/2011/04/28/los-comienzos-del-planeta-tierra/
• Volcanoes have
played a key role
in forming and
modifying the
planet where we
live.
• Volcanic eruptions
and gas
emissions have
produced oceans
and atmosphere
mountains,
plateaus, and
plains.
INTRODUCTION
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Geyser, hotspring
• Today, about 500 million
people live on or close to
volcanoes
• Fertile soils and plenty of
water near volcanoes
• Precious Minerals
• Geothermal energy
• tourism
Why do people live near volcanoes ?
INTRODUCTION
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Use, ravines
Why do people live near volcanoes ?
• For many people, the
benefits of living near
to a volcano outweigh
the potential dangers.
• Many people in areas
close to volcanoes
may not be able to
afford to move to
alternative areas.
INTRODUCTION
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Population density and active volcanoes in México. (Macías, et al).
Map obtained from "Gridded Population of the World" (SEDAC) of Columbia
University.
INTRODUCTION
Approximately 75% of the population lives near a volcano.
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People living in the shadow of volcanoes must live in
harmony with them and expect possible eruptions
INTRODUCTION
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While the number of volcanoes active per year varies only slightly on average
worldwide (50–70 according to Simkin and Siebert (1994)), the risk from volcano
hazards grows because of continuing growth in world population and increasing
air traffic (from Tilling, 2003).
INTRODUCTION
Increase of volcanic risk
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Natural and Social Science, Engineering, New information and
Communications Technologies, etc, are key actors and elements to help
decision making and policy makers to establish volcanic risk reduction
strategies.
The risk is a latent condition, ie something that may happen in the future,
then, there are many things that can be done before risk materializes into
a disaster.
To address the problem of damage caused by natural phenomena and find
solutions to reduce their impact, is necessary to proceed methodically. It is first
necessary to define and quantify the concepts of natural phenomena that relate to
their impact on society.
APPROACH
Volcanic risk is a complex problem that doesn‟t receive the importance that it
deserves mainly because of the volcanic recurrence rate in the same place
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LOCATION OF VOLCANIC ACTIVITY
• Scientists have found that
volcanic activity is
controlled by plate tectonics
Map of the world‟s active volcanoes
• Active volcanoes are located
in different plate tectonic
settings
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There are about 550 volcanoes on earth that
have erupted in historic times*
FREQUENCY AND SIZE OF ERUPTIONS
Size (cubic
meters)
Frecuency
(every…)
Example
0.001 – 0.01 Several months Kilauea, Unzen
0.01 – 0.1 5 years Etna
0.1 – 1 10 years St. Helen (1980)
1 – 10 100 years Pinatubo
10 – 100 1000 years Krakatoa (1883)
100 – 1000 10,000 years Tambora (1815)
> 1000 100,000 years Yellowstone
12http://www.uwsp.edu/geo/faculty/ozsvath/images/volcanic_explosivity_index.htm
VOLCANIC EXPLOSIVITY INDEX (VEI)
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Pyroclastic Flow: Fast flowing clouds
of Volcanic ash and rock.
Gas: Often poisonous gases released
from the mantle during an eruption.
Volcanic bombs: Large volcanic rocks
Lapilli/Tephra: Small volcanic stones
Lava: Liquid rock that reaches very
temperatures.
Landslides: Collapsing mountain
material.
Lahaar: A fast flowing river of volcanic
Mud.
Acid rain: Rain mixed with volcanic
gasses that can damage crops.
Tsunamis, atmospheric effects, famine,
diseases
VOLCANIC HAZARDS
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COLIMA
VOLCANIC HAZARDS
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VOLCANIC HAZARDS
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VOLCANIC HAZARDS
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VOLCANIC HAZARDS
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The case of Eyjafjallajokökull, April 2010
VOLCANIC HAZARDS
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• Hazards assessments,
volcano monitoring, and
effective
communications among
scientists, civil
authorities, and the
general public comprise
the core elements of
any successful program
to reduce risk from
volcano hazards
Essential elements of an effective program
to reduce volcano risk. Tilling, 1989b
VOLCANIC HAZARDS
VOLCANIC HAZARDS
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What can
volcanoes
do?
How and
when?
Activity based on
the eruptive history
Likely scenarios
(occurrence rates)
Hazard Maps
Variation of param.
with respect to a base
level
Volcanic
Monitoring
Probabilities of different
manifestations from the
detected variations
Most probable scenarios
Analysis of exposure,
vulnerabilities and
capabilities
Risk Analysis
Understanding
volcanoes
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Risk Analysis
Emergency
management
Forecast
Early warning
Alert, communication,
and information
procedures
Response:
implementation of
emergency measures
Prevention,
mitigation and
preparedness
Planning measures
Physical preventive
measures
Creating institutional
arrangements and
coordination
Environmental
management
Land use planning
Risk Transfer
Financial instruments
Emergency plans
Evacuation plans
Capacity building:
Policy development
Legislation, norms
Community
development
awareness raising
Recovery and
reconstruction
VOLCANIC HAZARDS
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Studying the deposits of rock, geologists can determine how many times has
erupted a volcano which has been the most common. Geologists can also identify
areas that were affected by these previous eruptions.
1/100, 10/15000, 2/40000
HAZARD ASSESSMENT
Incorporate hazard
maps in land use
planning
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Vulnerability
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
Vulnerability functions for buildings with pitched roofs and flexible tiles, and in the
case of buildings with flat roofs built with a concrete slab or similar
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RISK ASSESSMENT
Risk= f ( Hazard Probabilities , Vulnerability , value or number of Exposed elements)
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Visual surveillance
Visual observation and frequent
recording of the conditions of the
volcano
Seismic Monitoring
Measurement of seismic activity to
locate the source of energy release
and interpret physically the
phenomenon
Geodetic Monitoring
Measurement of deformation of the volcano due to changes in pressure inside the volcano
Geochemical monitoring
Chemical analysis of gases, ash, springs, lava and other volcanic products
Other
In addition to the types of monitoring described above, there are other instruments to detect
and measure a number of other physical manifestations in volcanoes (electric and magnetic
field, hidrology, remote sensig, infrasound, infrared cameras,
VOLCANO MONITORING
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Monitoreo
VOLCANO MONITORING
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El ascenso de magma
hacia el cráter provoca
una vibración en el
volcán
Al ascender los gases
volcánicos ejercen presión
sobre las paredes inernas
del volcán
La alta presión causa
rompimiento de las
rocas de las paredes
internas del volcán
Otros fenómenos
detectables:
• Explosiones
• Derrumbes
• Flujos
VOLCANO MONITORING
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VOLCANO MONITORING -FORECAST
29USGS
P ej. St Helen incrementó en el
número de eventos antes de la
erupción de 2004
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VOLCÁN ST. HELENS, SEPTIEMBRE 2004
Foto: USGS 30
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The “decision window” confronting public officials after
the onset of a volcanic crisis; in general, the most likely outcome
of escalating volcano unrest is unknown (base diagram
courtesy of C. Dan Miller, USGS).
DECISION WINDOW
There is a need to understand and accept that Uncertainty exist
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Inte
ns
ity
of
mo
nit
ori
ng
pa
ram
ete
rs
Tiempo
ErupciónErupción
Retorno a
La calma
Retorno a
La calma
Nivel de erupcion Estado Sostenido
De erupción permanente
Basado en Chris Newhall
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DECISION WINDOW
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An example of urban design used to
mitigate the effects of ash fall in
Kagoshima, Japan. The design of the
housing includes gutter-free roofs (which
have a storm water channel located
directly beneath), ash-resistant tiles,
heavy-duty rubber window and door seals
(to aid air tightness to prevent ash
entering houses) and large overhanging
roofs over balconies (Photo: David
Johnston).
PREVENTION : REDUCING VULNERABILITY
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Construction of engineering works designed to protect people and property.
Examples: construction of containment or diversion of the course in case of
flows.
Volcán Unzen
Seven lahar dams have been built on the Boyong River
by the Indonesian Department of Public Works with
assistance from the Japanese government. The dams
slow down the lahars, remove much of the debris they
carry, and reduce the energy of the lahars. The dam is
10.5 m high and can capture 380,000 cubic meters of
lahar material. 34
PREVENTION : REDUCING VULNERABILITY
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PREPARDNESS
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MT. PINATUBO, JUNIO 1991
The USGS and PHIVOLCS estimate
that their forecasts saved at least 5,000 lives
and perhaps as many as 20,000.
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• The challenge to scientists involved with volcano research is to mitigate the
short-term adverse impacts of eruptions, so that society may continue to enjoy
the long-term benefits of volcanism.
• They must continue to improve the capability for predicting eruptions and to
provide decision makers and the general public with the best possible
information on high-risk volcanoes for sound decisions on land-use planning
and public safety.
• Engineering also have an important role and can contribute working on
reducing vulnerability and construction of preventive works
• Evidence suggests that the current „multidisciplinary‟ approach within physical
science needs a broader scope to include sociological knowledge and
techniques.
CONCLUSIONS
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Enrique Guevara
CENAPRED, MEXICO
http://www.cenapred.unam.mx
FOTO: ALEJANDRO BONETA
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RADIO
60 km km
Centro de adquisición y procesamiento de datos en el
CENAPRED
64 señales de telemetría, 16 computadoras
dedicadas, sistema de alertamiento y comunicación
• 20 puntos remotos de medición
9 sismómetgros
4 inclinómetros
3 Detectores de flujos
1 Cámara de video en tiempo real
1 Camara infraroja
1 Sistema automático EDM
con 4 puntos de medición
1 Radiómetros
1 Sensor infrasónico
• Otras medicionesSO2 , COSPEC
CO2 , LICOR
análisis químico de cenizas y manantiales
imágenes satelitales
MONITOREO:
• Visual
• Sísmico
• Geodésico
• Geoquímico
POPOCATEPETL MONITORING SYSTEM
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PUESTO CENTRAL DE REGISTRO
EN CENAPRED
INSTRUMENTACION
Y MONITORE0
COMITÉ CIENTÍFICO ASESOR
POPOTEL
INTERNET
AUTORIDADES
SENEAM
PROTECCIÓN CIVIL
SEMÁFORO
VOLCÁNICO
POPOBIP
ALERT, COMUNICATION
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POPOCATEPETL – FORECAST , DECEMBER 2000
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POPOCATEPET ACTIVITY, DECEMBER 2000
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DECEMBER 2000
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The critical role of volcano monitoring in risk reduction R. I. Tilling
Scientist Emeritus, Volcano Hazards Team, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo
Park, California 94025-3591, USA, 2 January 2008
Mitigation of Volcanic Disasters in Densely Populated Areas
Flavio Dobran
A synthesis of challenges and opportunities, for reducing volcanic risk
through Land use planning in New Zealand Julia S. Becker, GNS Science,
et al
Volcanic hazards, vulnerability and risk assessment, Peter Dunkley,
Keyworth
Enciclopedya of volcanoes, Editor-in-Chief Haraldur Sigurdsson, University
of Rhode Island, U.S.A. ACADEMIC PRESS
San Diego State University, Department of geology. How volcanoes work
http://www.geology.sdsu.edu/how_volcanoes_work/Variability.html
United States Geological Survey, web page
SOME BIBLIOGRAPHY USED