ENMAK 2020 scenario

Consumption Part

2

Work plan1. Implementing the Residential, Tertiary and Industry consumption

(2010+2020) data from the expert groups into the STREAM model. (completed)

2. Calculating the costs and savings for implementing the new technologies into the different sectors. This is done by implementing all technologies with more accurate investment and O&M costs. (ongoing)The data is from the Danish Energy Agency:http://www.ens.dk/Documents/Netboghandel%20-%20publikationer/2012/Technology_data_for_individual_heating_plants_and%20energy_transport.pdf

3. Including the transport sector. Implementing the data for the Transport sector into the STREAM model. (ongoing)

4. Implementing Power and Heat production. This is done by using the data from the BALMOREL runs.

5. Model the 2030 and 2050 scenarios. Doing all the above with new data.

20% power for heat and 33% electrical heat for heat pumps

• The expert groups scenario for 2020 is that 20% of the produced power should go to local heat, and 33% of this electrical consumption should in 2020 be used by heat pumps.

• The next slide shows a possible distribution to fulfill this scenario.

• NOTE: This distribution will probably change after the costs and savings have been calculated.

20% power for heat and 33% electrical heat for heat pumps

2010 distribution of consumption

Possible 2020 distribution of consumption

5

Assumptions that needs to be clarified with expert group:

We would like your opinion on the following assumptions:• Share of DH for residential is 45% for apartments and 55% for detached houses.

Assumed 80% of apartments [1] and 55% of all residents have DH [2].• Uses air/air and brine/ground heat pumps for residential, and brine/ground heat

pumps for serviceAir/air is the most common in Estonia right now [3], but doesn’t have the capacity for larger buildings [4]. Plus brine/ground is favorable in the future (higher COP).

• Agriculture and fisheries uses 2080 TJ and 336 TJ of diesel respectively in 2010. Agriculture accounts for 3.0% and fisheries accounts for 0.5% [5] of the GDP of Estonia [6]. The diesel consumption is 2416 TJ for agriculture and fisheries combined [2].

[1] 95% of apartments in Finland are connected to DH http://energia.fi/en/home-and-heating/district-heating[2] Expert group Google Spreadsheet[3] https://www.energia.ee/en/kokkuhoid/kyte [4] http://www.ens.dk/Documents/Netboghandel%20-%20publikationer/2012/Technology_data_for_individual_heating_plants_and%20energy_transport.pdf [5] ESTONIAN FISHERIES STRATEGY 2007–2013, by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Estonia [6] http://www.stat.ee/18533