Enhancing Policy Decision Making with Large-Scale Digital Traces
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Transcript of Enhancing Policy Decision Making with Large-Scale Digital Traces
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Enhancing Policy Decision Making with Large-Scale Digital Traces
Vanessa Frias-MartinezUniversity of Maryland
NFAIS, February 2014
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5.9 billion 87%
3.2 billion unique users 45%
mobile devices >>humans
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Have you ever heard of DATIFICATION?1. Yes2. No
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Mobile Digital Footprints…
…for Social Good?
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Research Goal
To extract human behavioral information from mobile digital traces in order to assist decision makers in organizations working for social development
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TOOLS
BEHAVIORAL INSIGHTS
Energy
RESEARCH DECISION MAKERS
Health
Education
Safety
Transportation
Interviews, surveys:
Information to assist on policy
decisions
Data MiningMachine LearningStatistical
MOBILE DIGITAL TRACES
To enhance or complement
information in an affordable manner
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OUTLINE
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Outline
• Cell Phone Data
• Projects with Social Impact– Cencell– AlertImpact
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Cell Phone Data
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Call Detail Records
Anonymized
Granularity1-4km²
CDR: Caller | Callee | Date | Duration | Geolocation
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Modeling Human Behavior
Consumption•Number calls, duration, frequency, SMS/MMS/voice•Expenses•Handset Type and Features
Social•Degree of the social network •Strength of the contacts (Reciprocity & Frequency)•Geography of the social contacts
Mobility•Mobility Patterns (Entropy)•Diameter of mobility•Radius of gyration (Home/Work)
Over 270 variables
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Cost-Effective Census Maps From Cell Phone Data
CenCell
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Motivation: Census Maps
A/BC+CDE
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National Statistical Institutes
A/BC+CDE
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Important Data Comes at a Price
Expensive
Low resource regions
A/BC+CDE
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Can the variables extracted from Call Detail Records be used as predictors of regional socioeconomic levels (SELs)?
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Cost-effective Maps
NSI carries out surveys
Cell Phone Data
REDUCE COSTS
NSI surveys subset of regions
Forecasting Models
Predict the Present
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Methodology
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Classifying SELs - Training
Consumption
Social
Mobility
SEL
CLASSIFIER
Aggregated1-4km²
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SEL
Classifying SELs - Testing
CLASSIFIER
Consumption
Social
Mobility
Aggregated
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Experimental Evaluation
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Datasets
• Data for a city in Latin America (NSI)– 1200 regions (GUs)– SEL values from 0..100
• Call Detail Records– 6 months, 500K customers– City has 920 coverage areas– 279 variables per coverage area
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Evaluation Results
Random Forests 86%3 SELs (A,B,C)
EM Clustering 68%6 SELs (A,B,…,F)
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Human Behavior and
Census Variables
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Large Scale Quantitative Analysis
Consumption
Social
Mobility
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InsightsConsumption Variables
Mobility Variables
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AlertImpact
Understanding the Impact of Health Alerts using Cell Phone Data
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H1N1 Mexico Timeline
PrefluClosing Schools
27th AprilReopen
6th May
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Can we measure the impact that government alerts had on the mobility of the population ?
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Evaluation
• Call Records from 1st Jan till 31st May 2009– Compute mobility as different number of BTSs visited
• Stages– Medical Alert - Stage 1 (17th-27th April)– Closing Schools - Stage 2 (28th-1st May)– Suspension of Essential Activities - Stage 3 (1st May-6th May)
• Baselines– same periods, different year (2008)
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Changes in Mobility
April 27th May 1st May 6th
Alert Closed Shutdown Reopen
Baseline
Mobility reduced between 10% and 30%
Alert Closed Suspension Reopen
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Changes in Epidemic Spreading
Baseline (“preflu” behavior all weeks)Intervention (alert,closed,shutdown)
Epidemic peak postponed 40 hours
Reduced number of infected in peak agents by 10%
BASELINEK
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University Campus
Statistically Significant Decrease during Stages 2 and 3
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Airport
Statistically Significant Increase during Stages 2 and 3
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Take Away Message
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Take Away Message
• Geolocated traces allow us to quantitatively – Model human behavior– Measure behavioral changes– Predict/Classify external sources of information
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Future
• Enhance and complement the tools currently used by decision makers in organizations working for social good
– Use of open datasets, social media and other digital traces